Week 8 Write ups and hopefully feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Hello All....again I've failed in trying to get an earlier start. I'll be working to get everything up this afternoon and evening.

4-5-1 last week, which stuck. All dogs last week, and a couple of them who typically would be resourceful really shit the bed late. (La Tech, Louisville, Az State). Also a bad idea to fade Bama while only getting 4. Should have known they'd cash in on 3 pick 6's. Total record is 52-38-3 (.577).

On to the week....


Kansas State +7 Loss
Arkansas -6.5 Win
Nebraska -7 Loss
CMU -7.5 Loss
Baylor -37 Loss
Louisville -7.5 Loss
Tennessee +15 Win
Indiana +16.5 Loss
Nevada -7 Win
FIU -12 Win
Texas A&M +6 Loss
Utah +3.5 Loss
Wyoming +35 WIN

Totals for the week 5-8 (ugh)


 
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1. Kansas St +7 @ Texas: I decided to get off the "Bill Snyder Cover Express" last week, and good thing I did because that train ran off the rails and right into an exploding cauldron of fecal matter, instantly killing all with the misfortune of being aboard. Bill Snyder knows what the hell he's doing, but when it goes bad for him, it goes really bad. (Outgained 551-109) Hopefully, he got all of the bad karma out of his system last week, because as is usually the case, the Sooners came into Manhattan and gave him a brutal woodshed beating. Now we find ourselves right back into the ultimate comfort zone...a conference road game where Snyder is catching points. Even better, it's off an ATS loss. I looked back 6 years and unsurprisingly, K State has covered 8 out of the last 9 off an ATS conference loss, and we all know how money the Cats are in conference. Even better, Texas is a bad home favorite, going 10-15 ATS since 2010. K State has played the TCU and Oklahoma offenses the past two weeks, and although Texas is improving, they'll see some major class relief this week. The Horns also have struggled big time defensively and have had 2 weeks to pat themselves on the back in celebration of the season saving Oklahoma win a couple weeks ago. If The Horns give anything close to the performance they gave two weeks ago in the subdued atmosphere of Darrel K Royal Stadium, I'll be pretty surprised. Meanwhile, we can expect a great effort from Snyder's boys coming off such a horrendous effort last week.
 
2. Arkansas -6.5 v Auburn: At less than a TD, I like the Hogs this week. Although they sit at 2-4, they've played a lot better than that and ran into quite a bit of bad luck. Now they come home off a bye to face an Auburn squad that is looking at their second straight road trip. Offensively, Arkansas has been pretty good, not as dominating in the run game as they have been in recent years, but much better in the passing game. Even though the run game is not as strong as it's been, it's certainly good enough to blast through Auburn's flimsy wet nap run defense (115th in ypc against) and Brandon Allen should also have some solid success against the Auburn pass D. Arkansas's defense has struggled against good passing teams, but Auburn certainly has not been that, especially since Sean White has come aboard, as they are 81st in yards per play and 80th in passer rating. The Hogs typically play well on the defensive side of the ball at home, and they probably see this as a must win if they have any shot at a postseason. I can see a 38-20 type game here.
 
3. @Nebraska -7 v Northwestern: Unfortunately for Fitzy and company, I think the bloom is off the rose for the Cats, as they've run into a couple of buzzsaws the past couple of weeks and took it on the chin to the tune of a combined 78-10. Truth be told, they actually just came up against a couple of non-asleep offenses and defenses that can stop the run. Northwestern's offense is anemic, especially if Justin Jackson is contained. Nebraska will be more than capable of doing that, as they rank 17th against the run and just put the breaks on a good passing attack in Minneapolis last week (26 rushes for 65 yards, 2.5 ypc). At the same time, they ran all over the Gophers(203 rush yards), who came into the game ranked 22nd against the run. Northwestern has been gashed on the ground 2 games in a row, and while hey have been sturdy against the pass, they are now ranked 77th against the run for the year. Nebraska is getting some positive mojo and still has quite a bit to play for off he nice performance last week. If NW is going to compete in this game, they will have to throw it effectively and stop the run, two things they have done very little this year.
 
Br@ssknux said:
1. Kansas St +7 @ Texas: I decided to get off the "Bill Snyder Cover Express" last week, and good thing I did because that train ran off the rails and right into an exploding cauldron of fecal matter, instantly killing all with the misfortune of being aboard. Bill Snyder knows what the hell he's doing, but when it goes bad for him, it goes really bad. (Outgained 551-109) Hopefully, he got all of the bad karma out of his system last week, because as is usually the case, the Sooners came into Manhattan and gave him a brutal woodshed beating. Now we find ourselves right back into the ultimate comfort zone...a conference road game where Snyder is catching points. Even better, it's off an ATS loss. I looked back 6 years and unsurprisingly, K State has covered 8 out of the last 9 off an ATS conference loss, and we all know how money the Cats are in conference. Even better, Texas is a bad home favorite, going 10-15 ATS since 2010. K State has played the TCU and Oklahoma offenses the past two weeks, and although Texas is improving, they'll see some major class relief this week. The Horns also have struggled big time defensively and have had 2 weeks to pat themselves on the back in celebration of the season saving Oklahoma win a couple weeks ago. If The Horns give anything close to the performance they gave two weeks ago in the subdued atmosphere of Darrel K Royal Stadium, I'll be pretty surprised. Meanwhile, we can expect a great effort from Snyder's boys coming off such a horrendous effort last week.
Click to expand...

Love it. Also, K State is 14-0 ATS off a loss by 25+ under Snyder, and UT's win over the same UT team that just destroyed K State should have the Longhorns overconfident.
 
I have a lot of casual fans tell me KSU got killed by the team that TX beat, how does Texas lose?
 
Texas struggles with Kstate even when Texas is good. Weather should make the pts a little more valauable as well.
 
Gabe said:
I have a lot of casual fans tell me KSU got killed by the team that TX beat, how does Texas lose?
Click to expand...

Well....you could also say that K State had a TCU team beaten that destroyed Texas 50-7 the week before, so.....
 
4. Central Michigan -7.5 @Ball State: I'm typically a Pete Lembo fan, but this is a bad spot for the Gonads. While Ball State remains a solid play when dogged on the road, they for whatever reason cannot cove to save their lives at home. They are 12-20 at home ATS since 2010, and 3-6 as a home dog. The capper was last week, when they embarrassed themselves at home against Georgia State, getting dominated in the process. I'd like to think they could "sack up" and give a bounce back performance this week, but they face a very solid Chippewa passing attack that they are unprepared to handle. They are ranked 120th in defensive efficiency, 124th in 3rd down conversions against and 111th in passer rating against.Cooper Rush and the Chips are ranked 22nd in passer rating, and 47th in overall offensive efficiency. To cap it all off, they are a great road team, especially in favorite's role as they are 7-1 ATS over the past 4+ years. I typically don't like to ride on road favorites, but in this case we have a team that finds a way to cover in this role against a team that consistently gags.
 
5. @Baylor -37 v Iowa State: I've actually kind of liked Iowa State a couple times this year, and their offense has admittedly been pretty good. Their freshman RB Mike Warren looks like a keeper, and you'd have to look hard, but you can find worse than Sam Richardson at QB. Having said all that.... most of their offensive success has been against the dregs of FBS defenses, and that defense. Wow, their defense is bad. 120th in passer rating against, 115th in yards per attempt, a 15/1 TD to INT ratio, you get the picture. They gave up 776 yards to Texas Tech and 621 and 13.4(!!!) yards per ATTEMPT to TCU last week. Now they have to play these maniacs? Baylor is #1 in every conceivable offensive category, and by a ton. They average more than a yard per play than everyone else in college football. To say they will have success this week is like saying a newborn bunny rabbit might have some problems in a fight to the death with a dingo. Baylor has the tough part of their schedule coming up, but they're off next week, so they'll be looking to do what they can to drive home an impression that will have to last a couple weeks. They will almost certainly score 70, maybe 80 if they feel like it. To cover, Iowa State will probably have to drop 34 or so to cover, and let's not forget that Baylor's defense has been pretty good in recent years and isn't bad this year either. The capper: Since Art Briles showed up in 2008, Baylor is 27-8 as a home favorite.
 
M.W. said:
Love it. Also, K State is 14-0 ATS off a loss by 25+ under Snyder, and UT's win over the same UT team that just destroyed K State should have the Longhorns overconfident.
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Texas got embarrassed last year in Manhattan. All those players are still on this Texas team.

I actually expect Texas to cover this game, and I fade my alma mater a lot.
 
Thanks Blood. BOL to you as always.

Frank, thanks for checking in...always interested in your Longhorn thoughts. Can't say I'm enthused to hear what you say, but i couldn't pass up KState's track record in games like this.
 
6. @Louisville -7.5 v Boston College: This line keeps moving, but I think the Cards will handle it. Throughout the year, the BC defense has been among the best in the country, but they are moving in the wrong direction. Much of their success was built against FCS and weak FBS foes, but once they tasted a talented offense on the road, last week at Clemson, they fell apart, giving up 532 total yards and over 400 through the air to the DeShaun Watson and company. Now they go right back on the road and face a capable Louisville defense. That's a problem, because the BC offense has been a sick joke. They absolutely can't throw the ball to save their lives, as they're 126th in passer rating and are completing only 43% of their throws for 109 yards per game. Louisville on the other hand is settling in with Leon Jackson at QB. Bobby Petrino lambasted his defense in the postgame last week after their second half debacle in Tallahassee, and they need to find 4 more wins to be bowl eligible. I think we'll see a reeling BC squad this week, and unless their offense figures out how to complete a forward pass, they will have a hard time scoring enough to stay within this number.
 
I'd say that BC has faced just one team that can throw the ball, Clemson, and after facing UL the number will still be one. UL doesn't have the tools to move the ball on this defense. Jackson looked good last week, though, so I may be wrong.
 
7. Tennessee +15 @ Alabama: It was quite foolish for me to assume that Bama wouldn't find a way to return 3 picks 60 plus yards for scores last week, so taking points when I was only getting 4 didn't turn out so well. Tennessee is definitely better than it's record, and is at the point now where they can match up with Alabama's talent better than they have been able to in years. This is a team that had Georgia and Oklahoma beat, and actually did knock off Georgia two weeks ago. Bama is at the tail end of a very tough stretch, having knocked off Georgia, Arkansas and Texas A&M in consecutive weeks while Tennessee had 2 weeks to prepare. Dobbs is a cool customer under pressure, not one to give the ball away, so I think he'll have some success, much like he did last year when UT was far less equipped to compete against these guys than they are now. Tennessee will need to stiffen against the run, but I like their chances to compete against a Bama offense that struggles on 3rd down(111th) while the Vols have been doing a nice job in getting opposing offenses off the field (19th). The Vols have proved their mettle by competing against some top notch competition...I think they can compete in this one and keep it close.
 
8. Indiana +16.5 @ Michigan State: At some point, things are going to catch up with Michigan State. They did what they had to last week to get the win, with a huge assist from one of the most fortunate plays in college football history, but they continue to play average at best. The only game they've covered all year was this past week when they were an underdog, so that means that they are winless ATS as a favorite, and they've failed to cover against much worse teams this Indiana outfit with Nate Sudfeld healthy. Under Sudfeld, the Hoosiers have moved the ball consistently, and Michigan State has been giving up yards consistently as well. They've given up 21+ yard passing plays, and Indiana with Sudfeld has been explosive in the passing game. Coming off such an emotional rollercoaster is going to be tough for the Spartans, and this isn't a comfortable role for them regardless of the circumstances. Indiana is furious with themselves for blowing a 25 point lead to Rutgers last week, and they still have a lot to play for as their bowl prospects are still a good possibility. They'll be playing to win, so I think they'll give a solid effort.
 
9. @Nevada -7 v Hawaii: Hawaii is making a second trip to the mainland in a row, and that's bad news for them as they are 1-7 ATS in the second of back to back road games since 2010. It certainly makes sense as no other college football team has to deal with a travel regimen like that. To make matters worse, they had a heartbreaking loss at new Mexico last week in which they gave up a TD in the final minute after leading for the vast majority of the game. Since Norm Chow has been coach, I can only find one straight up road win on his entire resume, so, we can say that the deck is stacked against the 'Bows this week. Nevada is coming off a disappointing loss at Wyoming, so they'll be raring to go, and Hawaii's QB Max Wittek is banged up and unlikely to play. This just seems like a really tough spot for Hawaii.
 
10. @FIU -13 v Old Dominion: FIU is a pretty solid squad. I know I'm a bit biased because old pal Ron Turner is their coach, but they've acquitted themselves well this year, mostly on the road and mostly as a significant underdog. This is only their third home game, and in their other home tilt against a FBS squad, they handled UTEP easily, 50-14. ODU is of the same ilk as UTEP, but for whatever reason, the linesmakers have been giving them the benefit of the doubt, as they haven't been dogged by more than 17 points all year despite clocking in as the second worst team in FBS by some advanced metrics. As a result, they are winless against the spread, and it looks like that will probably continue against an FIU squad that is likely to take care of business.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Thanks Blood. BOL to you as always.

Frank, thanks for checking in...always interested in your Longhorn thoughts. Can't say I'm enthused to hear what you say, but i couldn't pass up KState's track record in games like this.
Click to expand...

Thanks for your write ups. Much appreciated.
 
11. Texas A&M +6 @ Ole Miss: On a neutral site I'd probably make A&M a 3-4 point favorite. To me this looks like a bit of a coin flip, so I'll take the 6. This is a bit of a tough matchup for Ole Miss. A&M struggles to stop the run, but Ole Miss doesn't really run the ball all that well. Ole Miss stops the run well, but A&M's MO is to throw it downfield, which Ole Miss struggles to stop. In addition to that, I see a major advantage on both sides of the ball on 3rd down. Sumlin is always adept at converting on 3rd down, and that's no different this year as the Aggies are 22nd in the country in 3rd down conversions, and Ole Miss can't find a way to get to get off the field, allowing almost 50% conversions. With Nkemdiche questionable, A&M is much more likely to put pressure on the QB than Ole Miss is, so i think Allen will have some success. I think A&M has a great shot at the outright here.


 
12. Utah +3.5 @ USC: This is certainly a public play, but I just can't see USC, in their present state, winning outright against such a well coached, highly motivated team like Utah. Lots of good matchup scenarios for Utah here, and I think the Utes will have a lot of success harrassing Cody Kessler into doing things he doesn't want to do. There is also evidence that Utah might be a superior road team, given the brutal beating they administered to Oregon a few weeks back. Utah is solid in all phases, and nobody really knows where the Trojans' heads are. If they are going to beat Utah, they will have to play a disciplined, technically sound game, and given the current situation, I don't know if they're capable of that under Clay Helton.
 
13 Wyoming +35 @ Boise State: Wyoming started the season off in embarrassing fashion losing to Eastern Michigan badly at home, but they've slowly made the progress a lot of people figured they would under highly respected former FCS coach Craig Bohl. They've covered 3 in a row including an outright winner last week against Nevada. Boise will be a major step up for them, but I don't know that Boise will have the motivation to cover a spread like this, and even if they did, Wyoming is playing loads better than they did at the beginning of the season. Boise is also banged up at RB, and has been a bad home favorite in recent years.
 
Love the fundamentals on Indiana, but hate the 55-52 home loss. Let's face it -- IU probably started thinking about MSU before the game was over, so maybe the meltdown won't produce a letdown.
 
Nkemdiche will play:

http://www.theeagle.com/aggie_sport...cle_9facd092-7940-11e5-b757-8f5b78c428c4.html

Ole Miss defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche has been cleared to play against Texas A&M on Saturday, reported Richard Cross, sideline reporter for the Ole Miss IMG Sports Network, late Thursday.

Nkemdiche suffered a concussion in the first half of last week's 37-24 loss at Memphis.

Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze said Monday at his weekly press conference and again Wednesday on the Southeastern Conference football coaches teleconference that Nkemdiche was going through the school's concussion protocol and he expected to know something Thursday or Friday.

Ole Miss defensive coordinator Dave Wommack said Thursday that Nkemdiche had passed all concussion tests and would play, Cross reported.

Ole Miss senior safety Trae Elston, who also suffered a concussion against Memphis, was cleared Wednesday and will play against A&M, according to several reports.

Ole Miss punter Will Gleeson and backup linebacker Tayler Polk also are going through concussion protocol this week, but there's been no update on either player.
 
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Nebraska is actually 7th against the rush and I think you have that one handicapped right on the money.

Baylor is tricky because they are right in the middle of the deluge currently moving into Texas, and heavy thunderstorms are forecast with lots of lightning in the area. This may be one of those games with long delays. Baylor wants to put up a ton of points because they though they got screwed by the polls on their bye weeks last year (they had three) and they have a bye next week. They want to leave an impression. Unfortunately the weather is a wild card.

Same weather front will affect the Texas/K State game.

Good luck
 
Were opposite on common games except for A&M. Health to you. GL on others.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Nebraska is actually 7th against the rush and I think you have that one handicapped right on the money.

Baylor is tricky because they are right in the middle of the deluge currently moving into Texas, and heavy thunderstorms are forecast with lots of lightning in the area. This may be one of those games with long delays. Baylor wants to put up a ton of points because they though they got screwed by the polls on their bye weeks last year (they had three) and they have a bye next week. They want to leave an impression. Unfortunately the weather is a wild card.

Same weather front will affect the Texas/K State game.

Good luck
Click to expand...

Thanks TL! I use games vs FBS only so that might be why our ranks are different.
 
I know you get this a lot and you are humble in your reply, but I look forward to your post. Absolute must read in my opinion. GL today Brass.
 
booksbestfriend said:
I know you get this a lot and you are humble in your reply, but I look forward to your post. Absolute must read in my opinion. GL today Brass.
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Thanks a lot BBF. I'm sure that pretty much everyone that likes to post on the site does it in part because of posts like this.
 
Took it on the chin badly this week.....5-8.

Got burned on some that I played on principle that didn't pan out (CMU, K State, Utah, baylor). I was actually out all day yesterday because of my kid's travel hockey games...I'm glad I didn't have to watch the 4th quarter of that Indiana game. Also, I'm sure this happens to everyone, but my 5 late cuts to the card were Washington State, Clemson, Oklahoma and Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt.


Tough week all around. I probably would bet a lot of them under the same circumstances again. (Arkansas, however, would not be one of them, so it wasn't all bad luck)
 
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