Trendspotting: 3 NCAAF Betting Trends to Monitor in Week 8
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Penn State Trend: The “under” is 5-0 in Illinois’ last five games
Illinois has exceeded a double-digit scoring total in three of its five Power 5 contests this season. Those three games came against Maryland, Virginia, and Nebraska. Maryland and Virginia rank outside the top-90 nationally in total defense. While Nebraska ranks a more attractive 39th nationally in the category, it is evident from game footage and from a comparison between the Cornhuskers’ season opener and the rest of their season that they were not well-prepared for the season opener. They made terrible mistakes – on both sides of the ball.
The Illini’s other two Power 5 contests came against Wisconsin and Purdue. Both rank top-11 nationally in total defense. The Illini managed a combined total of nine points against them. In terms of quality, Penn State resembles these two defenses because it ranks 22nd nationally in the category. Therefore, Penn State owns the defensive quality required to severely limit an Illini offense lacking in firepower on the ground or through the air.
On the other side, the Nittany Lions have suffered issues in their ground game, such that their leading rusher only had 204 yards. But they also have a banged-up quarterback: Sean Clifford is listed as ‘questionable’ for Saturday’s contest with an upper-body injury.
Verdict: Under 46.5 at -110
Syracuse Orange vs. Virginia Tech Hokies Trend: Syracuse enjoys a five-game ATS winning streak while the Hokies are 0-4 L4 ATS.
Offensively, Syracuse is absolutely run-first. The Orange own the nation’s 22nd-highest run-play percentage. Their quarterback is former Mississippi State Bulldog Garrett Shrader, who has always been most known for his running ability. Although, the Orange rely primarily on Sean Tucker and his 6.1 YPC.
Syracuse’s running ability is crucial against a Hokie defense that, like last year, struggles to stop the run. Virginia Tech just allowed Pittsburgh running back Israel Abanikanda to nearly double his previous season-high in rushing total despite accruing zero 20-yard rushing gains. The week before, the Hokies had allowed Notre Dame’s Kyren Williams to have arguably his most consistently solid rushing effort of the season.
It’s also hard to like Virginia Tech as the favored team because the Hokies pose minimal offensive threat with their inefficient passing quarterback and their utter lack of explosive run game, which is spearheaded by Braxton Burmeister’s meager 3.4 YPC.
Verdict: Orange +3 at -105
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Wisconsin Badgers: The “under” is a perfect 6-0 in Purdue’s games this season.
Wisconsin still misses former star running back Jonathan Taylor, who was the centerpiece of the offense. The attention that he demanded from defenses covered tremendous shortcomings in the rest of the offense. Quarterback Graham Mertz’s awful 102.5 passer rating is largely explainable by his inability to assume a meaningful level of productive responsibility, although the amount of pressure that he’s regularly facing is not helping him develop the comfort in the pocket that he needs to be more accurate.
The most meaningful threat to the “under” will come from Purdue starting quarterback Aidan O’Connell. As he showed last week, he has the confidence to sling it 40 times in a game.
However, the Badger pass defense ranks 16th nationally in limiting the opponent’s passer rating. Wisconsin is aided in this aspect by a deep and high-quality secondary and, relative to last year, a strongly improved pass rush led by playmaker Nick Herbig at linebacker, who leads the team in sacks.
Verdict: Under 40 at -110
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Penn State Trend: The “under” is 5-0 in Illinois’ last five games
Illinois has exceeded a double-digit scoring total in three of its five Power 5 contests this season. Those three games came against Maryland, Virginia, and Nebraska. Maryland and Virginia rank outside the top-90 nationally in total defense. While Nebraska ranks a more attractive 39th nationally in the category, it is evident from game footage and from a comparison between the Cornhuskers’ season opener and the rest of their season that they were not well-prepared for the season opener. They made terrible mistakes – on both sides of the ball.
The Illini’s other two Power 5 contests came against Wisconsin and Purdue. Both rank top-11 nationally in total defense. The Illini managed a combined total of nine points against them. In terms of quality, Penn State resembles these two defenses because it ranks 22nd nationally in the category. Therefore, Penn State owns the defensive quality required to severely limit an Illini offense lacking in firepower on the ground or through the air.
On the other side, the Nittany Lions have suffered issues in their ground game, such that their leading rusher only had 204 yards. But they also have a banged-up quarterback: Sean Clifford is listed as ‘questionable’ for Saturday’s contest with an upper-body injury.
Verdict: Under 46.5 at -110
Syracuse Orange vs. Virginia Tech Hokies Trend: Syracuse enjoys a five-game ATS winning streak while the Hokies are 0-4 L4 ATS.
Offensively, Syracuse is absolutely run-first. The Orange own the nation’s 22nd-highest run-play percentage. Their quarterback is former Mississippi State Bulldog Garrett Shrader, who has always been most known for his running ability. Although, the Orange rely primarily on Sean Tucker and his 6.1 YPC.
Syracuse’s running ability is crucial against a Hokie defense that, like last year, struggles to stop the run. Virginia Tech just allowed Pittsburgh running back Israel Abanikanda to nearly double his previous season-high in rushing total despite accruing zero 20-yard rushing gains. The week before, the Hokies had allowed Notre Dame’s Kyren Williams to have arguably his most consistently solid rushing effort of the season.
It’s also hard to like Virginia Tech as the favored team because the Hokies pose minimal offensive threat with their inefficient passing quarterback and their utter lack of explosive run game, which is spearheaded by Braxton Burmeister’s meager 3.4 YPC.
Verdict: Orange +3 at -105
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Wisconsin Badgers: The “under” is a perfect 6-0 in Purdue’s games this season.
Wisconsin still misses former star running back Jonathan Taylor, who was the centerpiece of the offense. The attention that he demanded from defenses covered tremendous shortcomings in the rest of the offense. Quarterback Graham Mertz’s awful 102.5 passer rating is largely explainable by his inability to assume a meaningful level of productive responsibility, although the amount of pressure that he’s regularly facing is not helping him develop the comfort in the pocket that he needs to be more accurate.
The most meaningful threat to the “under” will come from Purdue starting quarterback Aidan O’Connell. As he showed last week, he has the confidence to sling it 40 times in a game.
However, the Badger pass defense ranks 16th nationally in limiting the opponent’s passer rating. Wisconsin is aided in this aspect by a deep and high-quality secondary and, relative to last year, a strongly improved pass rush led by playmaker Nick Herbig at linebacker, who leads the team in sacks.
Verdict: Under 40 at -110
