Week 8 plays and leans

Dmoney416

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
Week 1: 3-5, -2.75u
Week 2: 3-5, -0.87u
Week 3: 7-2-1, +6.15u
Week 4: 3-6, -3.35u
Week 5: 5-7, -4.57u
Week 6: 7-3, +3.4u
Week 7: 8-2, +5.93u
Straight plays: 36-28-1, +4.54u
Sides: 16-17, -8.47u
Game Totals: 20-8-1, +16.46u
Team Totals: 0-3, -3.45u
MLs: 0-2, -0.6u
Total: 36-30-1, +3.94u

Season plays:

Cincinnati OVER 6.5 Wins (+115) (10u to win 11.5): 5-1
Last Week: W 13-10 vs. Rutgers
Next: Bye

Purdue UNDER 7 Wins (-140) (1.4u to win 1): 2-4
Last Week: L 16-3 at Ohio St.
Next: at Northwestern

Week 8 plays:

<!-- / message -->Purdue/Northwestern OVER 42.5 (4.4u to win 4)
NC State +13.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Colorado -2.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Arkansas +11 (1.65u to win 1.5) <!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
Wisconsin +4.5 (1.32u to win 1.2)
Pittsburgh -2.5 (1.32u to win 1.2)
Idaho +20.5 (1.1u to win 1) <!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
Miami FL/Duke UNDER 46.5 (1.1u to win 1)
California/Arizona OVER 54.5 (1.1u to win 1)

Week 8 leans (bolded leans are the stronger leans)

Hawaii +26
Georgia -14.5
Michigan St. +3.5
Pittsburgh -3.5 (would need 2.5)
Missouri +7
UAB +3
San Diego St. +14.5
Baylor +16.5 (already could have had 18, so would need 17.5 to consider)
North Texas +18.5


BOL to all this week. :cheers:
 
Last edited:
Added:

Purdue/Northwestern OVER 42.5 (4.4u to win 4)
Miami FL/Duke UNDER 46.5 (1.1u to win 1)
California/Arizona OVER 54.5 (1.1u to win 1)


Write-ups and box score stuff coming over the next day or so.
 
Heh based on what you told me elsewhere i thought we wre in more disagreement than this.

on pitt already and on nw total already ( a lot worse number than you :( )


only lean i despise is msu.


look forward to the box score tidbits post !!!

talk at ya later big guy , gl this week.
 
Box score stuff:

- Florida Atlantic and Troy were equal in both yardage and first downs. However, Troy was 3-3 on 4th down and they won the turnover battle 3-1.

- Wake Forest gained 342 yards, had 21 first downs, and was 10-21 on 3rd down. Clemson had 198 yards, 10 first downs, and was 2-14 on 3rd down (and 1-4 on fourth down). Wake Forest freshman kicker Shane Popham filled in for the hobbled Sam Swank and went 2-4 on FGs, missing a 25-yarder and a 39-yarder. He converted on 22 and 32 yard attempts.

- UAB led Houston 20-3 at half, but they were outscored 42-0 in the 2nd half en route to a 45-20 setback. UAB had 3 turnovers, 85 penalty yards, and was a combined 2-18 on 3rd and 4th down. Houston scored 45 despite being a mere 5-17 on 3rd and 4th downs. Houston gained 549 yards. Both punters were solid average-wise: UAB's Swayze Waters averaged 50.6 on eight punts. Houston's Chase Turner averaged 51.5 on six punts (however, this led to three touchbacks). Turner has averaged at least 50 yards per punt in each of his last three and he has a 48.3 ypp average on the year.

- Memphis outgained Louisville 481-299 and out first-downed them 27-13. However, Louisville won the TO battle 3-1 and they scored TDs on a kickoff return, and fumble return, and a blocked FG (last play of the 1st half).

- Iowa had two 100-yard rushers and ran for 227 yards on 51 tries. Iowa held the ball for nearly 40 minutes. Iowa punter Ryan Donahue pinned Indiana inside their own 20 on three of his four punts.

- Toledo threw 50 times to only 22 rushes. Toledo WR Nick Moore had 20 catches for 162 yards (he had 20 catches for 199 yards in his first four games with a nagging hamstring injury). Michigan turned it over three times and was only 3-13 on third down. Michigan punter Zoltan Mesko averaged 49.6 yards on five punts and pinned Toledo inside their own 20 on four occasions.

- Oklahoma and Texas were nearly equal in the yardage, first downs, and 3rd down conversion categories. However, Oklahoma lost the TO battle 2-0 and were 0-3 on 4th down. Texas WR Jordan Shipley has 11 grabs for 112 yards to go along with a 90-yard kickoff return TD.

- Virginia trailed 6-0 before rattling off 28 straight in the first half against East Carolina. Virginia outgained ECU 430-285. Virginia had TDs of 79, 60, and 30 yards.

- West Virginia didn't ice their game against Syracuse until Noel Divine's 93-yard TD run with 4:18 remaining. Syracuse outgained WV 346-268. WV only had 52 yards passing on 20 attempts. Syracuse was 8-18 on 3rd down, but 0-3 on 4th down. WV punter Pat McAfee averaged 47 yards on seven tries (four inside the 20).

- Illinois outgained Minnesota 550-312 (including 462 yards passing) and out first-downed them 25-16. However, the Illinois had three turnovers to Minnesota's one and they were 0-2 on 4th down.

- Cincinnati outgained Rutgers 336-254. Cincinnati was 0-11 on third down and committed 12 penalties for 115 yards. Cincinnati punter Kevin Huber pinned Rutgers inside their own 13 yard line on six of his nine punts. Rutgers WR Tiquan Underwood did not record a catch, and now has only 14 catches for 160 yards and no TDs in six games after recording 65 grabs for 1100 yards and seven TDs last season. He only has four catches in his last four games.

- Each team recorded a defensive score in the South Carolina/Kentucky game. SC's Captain Munnerlyn had an 81-yard blocked FG return and a 84-yard KO return to set-up another score. SC outgained Kentucky 348-218, but they lost the turnover battle 4-2. Kentucky was 1-16 on third down and 0-1 on 4th down. Mike Hartline only had 153 yards passing on 43 tries (3.5 ypa). South Carolina QB Stephen Garcia relieved Smelley and went 10-14 for 169 yards and a TD (Smelley was 9-23 for 105 yards, a TD, and 2 INTs before being pulled).

Kentucky kicker Ryan Tydlacka took over FG duties for Lonas Seiber and hit a 51-yarder, but he also missed from 21 (blocked) and 45. South Carolina kicker Ryan Succop was 1-5 on FGs, making a 42-yarder while missing tries from 50, 51, 40, and 39.

- Kansas outgained Colorado 407-233 and won the turnover battle 2-0. Colorado QB Cody Hawkins (8-22, 90 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT) was replaced early in the fourth quarter by Matt Ballenger (5-8, 57 yards).


much more to come.....
 
Dude, great job at getting that 'cane total at 46'; you're top-notch on getting the best totals lines.
 
- Army won despite no completing a pass and losing the TO battle 2-0. Army ran 59 times for 341 yards (5.8 avg). Eastern Michigan was a combined 1-14 on 3rd and 4th down.

- Texas A&M actually outgained Kansas St. 544-449 in their 44-30 loss. Kansas St. was 9-12 on 3rd down and 1-1 on 4th down. Texas A&M was 8-15 on 3rd down and 2-4 on 4th down. TAMU QB Jerrod Johnson accounted for nearly 500 yards of offense: 419 through the air and 68 on the ground.

- Wyoming outgained Utah 252-242 in their 40-7 loss, but they lost the TO battle 5-0 in typical Cowboys fashion. Sween got the start for Wyoming and went 8-18 for 52 yards and 3 INT. Chris Stutzriem got a try at QB and went 2-2 for 16 yards and their lone TD (JPicks - is Stutzriem going to get a shot at the job?). Utah had three D/ST TDs: a 25-yard INT return, a blocked punt return, and a recovered fumble in the end-zone.

- Vanderbilt managed only 7 first downs, 107 total yards, and a 1-10 day on third down. They also turned it over twice and allowed MSU to go 9-18 on 3rd down despite only 247 total yards. MSU punter McAdams averaged only 29.3 yards on eight punts.

- There were only three total punts in the Ohio/Kent game. The teams were nearly equal in yardage, first downs, and 3rd down conversions. However, Kent St. lost the TO battle 3-2, was 0-3 on 4th down, and missed a FG and 2 XPs. Struggling Kent St. kicker Nate Reed was yanked in favor of Will Kandray after he missed the first XP. Kandray would later have a 29-yard FG blocked and would miss an XP as well. Ohio kicker Barrett Way hit all four of his FGs attempts. Ohio was penalized 12 times for 102 yards.

- Nebraska outgained Texas Tech 471-421 and out first-downed them 29-16 in their OT loss.

- There were nine total turnovers in the Arizona St./USC game (5 by USC). USC outgained the Sun Devils 387-229. Danny Sullivan spelled Rudy Carpenter and went 4-17 for 28 yards and 2 INTs. Arizona St. kicker Thomas Weber missed 2 FGs.

- Marcus Jackson got the start for a hobbled Andy Dalton and went 16-26 for 166 yards and an INT. TCU outgained the Rams 317-199, but they were penalized 11 times for 115 yards.

- Georgia Tech's only TD against Gardner-Webb was a 79-yard pass from Calvin Booker to Jonathan Dwyer - this play accounted for 40% of GT's total yardage. The Runnin' Bulldogs outgained GT 227-199 and won the turnover battle 3-1. GT ran 47 times (for only 79 yards) to only 11 passes (3 completions for 120 yards). Gardner-Webb kicker Ryan Gates had the potential game-tying 43-yarder blocked with :09 remaining in the game.

- Georgia outgained Tennessee 458-209 and out first-downed them 29-10. Tennessee won the TO battle 2-0. Tennessee had 1 yard rushing on 15 tries. (This box score along with Vandy's is really shading me toward a bet on Georgia)

- Northwestern outgained Michigan St. 459-297, but they had three early turnovers that led to 17 Michigan St. points. Bacher threw 61 times. Northwestern was 15-24 on 3rd down and 2-3 on 4th down.

- ND outgained UNC 472-322, but they lost the TO battle 5-0 (one of which resulted on an INT return on the first play of the 3rd quarter). ND was 10-16 on 3rd down, but 0-2 on 4th down. ND only punted once.

- Purdue outgained Ohio St. 298-222, butt lost the TO battle 2-0. Ohio St's only TD came by way of a blocked punt. Purdue passed 51 times to 26 rushes, while Ohio St. passed only 14 times to 42 rushes.

- Western Michigan outgained Buffalo 397-322, but lost the TO battle 3-1. WMU passed 63 times to only 17 runs. WMU scored 22 4th quarter points (including a 9-yard pass TD to Simmons with :05 left) to send the game into OT where they eventually won.

Still plenty to go - get to it a little later.
 
- Wyoming outgained Utah 252-242 in their 40-7 loss, but they lost the TO battle 5-0 in typical Cowboys fashion. Sween got the start for Wyoming and went 8-18 for 52 yards and 3 INT. Chris Stutzriem got a try at QB and went 2-2 for 16 yards and their lone TD (JPicks - is Stutzriem going to get a shot at the job?). Utah had three D/ST TDs: a 25-yard INT return, a blocked punt return, and a recovered fumble in the end-zone

15 games since the boise state loss third game of year last year where they failed to cover. Amazing.

- ND outgained UNC 472-322, but they lost the TO battle 5-0 (one of which resulted on an INT return on the first play of the 3rd quarter). ND was 10-16 on 3rd down, but 0-2 on 4th down. ND only punted once.

marks third consecutive game where unc gets outplayed but finds a way to win.... miamifl ( interceptions ) , uconn ( blocked punts ) . notre dame ( turnovers ) . doing it with mirrors and now lose TATE. Should be a go against team soon.

more tidbits !
 
damn. nice number on ncstate.

At what point do you lay off some of the bet and go for the middle ??10 ?

or are you just keeping the value ?

nice position to be in.
 
- Miami FL and UCF combined for only 294 yards (UCF had only 78). UCF won the turnover battle 3-1, but their only scores were an INT return for TD and a KO return for TD. UCF was 11-37 passing for 74 yards and they had 4 yards rushing on 27 tries. The teams were a combined 5-35 on 3rd down.

- Temple outgained Central Mich 301-297 and held the Chips to a combined 3-17 on 3rd an 4th down, but they had 4 giveaways. A hobbled Dan LeFevour was spelled by Brunner in the 2nd half. Brunner was 7-13 for 136 yards and a TD. CMU had only 55 rushing yards on 40 tries. CMU punter Brett Hartmann averaged 48.5 yards on six punts.

- Miami OH and Northern Illy were even in most categories, except the Redhawks committed 12 penalties for 79 yards. Miami OH's only score was on a punt return TD. Miami OH punter Jacob Richardson averaged 50.4 yards on five punts.

- There were 1020 yards of total offense between Nevada and New Mexico St. All stats were even except Nevada's 3 turnovers to NMSU's 1. NMSU threw for 409 yards. Nevada ran for 313 (7.5ypc).

- Arkansas outgained Auburn 416-193. Auburn had only 56 yards on 33 carries.

- Stanford beat Arizona despite losing the TO battle 3-0. Stanford had 286 yards on 48 carries (6.0 avg.).

- Gruner and Smith split QB duties against BYU. BYU punter CJ Santiago pinned UNM inside their own 20 on three occasions.

- Bowling Green scored 23 4th quarter points to defeat Akron 37-33. BG kicker Sinisa Vrvilo went 1-2 on FGs, leaving him 3-9 on the year (including 1-4 from under 40 yards). He was 15-19 last year. Akron RB Dennis Kennedy had 29 carries for 182 yards. His previous season highs in these areas were 19 carries (@Army) and 89 yards (@Syracuse).

- Ball St. only outgained Western Kentucky 355-352 and were only 3-10 on 3rd down. However, the Hilltoppers gave the ball away three times and were 0-3 on 4th down. WKU trailed 7-0 at the half despite driving into Ball St. territory on four occasions in the 1st half (2 fumbles - 1 in the EZ, a missed FG, and a turnover on downs).

- Oregon St. outgained Washington St. 548-132 and out first-downed them 26-8. Washington St. had 145 in penalty yardage on 12 flags. Oregon St. scored 66 points despite 4 turnovers. Oregon St. had 323 yards on 43 carries (7.5 ypc). Washington St. had 53 yards on 42 carries (much of this is due to Lobbastael's -47 yards rushing).

- There were 1118 total yards between ULL and North Texas (590-528 in ULL's favor). ULL had TDs of 97 (kick return), 81, 57, and 49, and 31 yards. Louisiana-Lafayette's Jason Chery had 8 touches for 339 yards and 5 TDs (3 carries for 85 yards, 3 catches for 123 yards (all TDs), and 2 kick returns for 131 yards). UNT WR Casey Fitzgerald had 14 grabs for 231 yards and a score.

- Baylor outgained Iowa St. 435-257 and were 3-3 on 4th down. Robert Griffin was 21-24 for 278 yards and 2 TDs. Baylor had TDs of 93 (KO return), 51, and 34 yards.

- Dwight Dasher and Joe Craddock comcined to go 14-27 for 72 yards and 3 INTs for MTSU. Dasher did run for 78 yards on 13 carries.

- La-Monroe outgained Arkansas St. 396-391, but lost the TO battle 3-0. Arkansas St. had 262 yards on 44 carries (6.0 avg).

- Florida had TDs of 70, 52 (INT return), and 42 against LSU. Florida ran for 265 yards on 41 tries (6.5 avg).

- SJSU outgained Utah St. 401-190. Utah St. was a combined 4-19 on 3rd and 4th down. USU QB Sean Setzer took over for Borel late and went 5-9 for 53 yards and the Aggies' lone score.

- Penn St. only outgained Wisconsin 377-313 despite the 48-7 score. Wisconsin had 4 turnovers to PSU's 1. Allen Evridge (2-10, 50 yards, 1 INT) was spelled by Dustin Sherer in the 2nd half (9-17, 115 yards, 1 INT).

- There 856 yards of offense between Oklahoma St. and Missouri, but each team turned it over three times. Missouri missed 2 FGs and Oklahoma St. missed 1. Oklahoma St. had TDs of 68, 40, and 31 yards. Missouri was 2-9 on third down.

- All 31 points in the Boise St/Southern Miss game were scored in the 2nd quarter. Southern Miss was 0-4 on 4th down.

- There were 1071 total yards between Tulsa and SMU (Tulsa had 602 yards). Still, Tulsa had to overcome 3 turnovers and needed two 4th quarter TDs to hold off SMU 37-31. Tulsa ran 50 times for 321 yards (6.4 avg). Tulsa was 2-2 on 4th down. SMU was 0-2, including a missed 4th and 2 at the Tulsa 26 with 1:00 left in the game.

- Despite a 10-7 halftime deficit, Air Force eventually outgained SDSU 473-165. Air Force ran 77 times (for 401 yards - 5.2 avg.) to only 7 pass attempts.

- Tulane RB Andre Anderson had 255 yards on 29 carries in their 24-21 loss to UTEP. As a team, Tulane had 311 yards on 39 attempts (82. avg).

- Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli was only 5-19 for 42 yards passing, but he ran 24 times for 170 yards.

- Idaho outgained Fresno St. 452-443 and was an impressive 11-17 on 3rd down. However, Fresno St. scored on a 90 yard run and a fumble recovery in the end zone. Fresno St. had 318 yards on 38 carries (8.4 avg), and Idaho had 215 yards rushing on 39 carries (5.5 avg).

- La. Tech missed 2 FGs, had 4 turnovers, and went 2-15 on 3rd down in their 24-12 loss to Hawaii. Taylor Bennett (11-29, 152 yards, 2 INT) was spelled by Ross Jenkins (4-9, 15 yards). Bennett likely lost his job for good in this game. Hawaii was penalized 13 times for 127 yards.
 
horses said:
Dude, great job at getting that 'cane total at 46'; you're top-notch on getting the best totals lines.
Click to expand...

Thanks Horses - its something I keep trying to get better at, as having a jump on the early totals can be very profitable - particularly when CBB rolls around. Totals are the only thing that I've done consistently well this season.
 
vegaskyle said:
damn. nice number on ncstate.

At what point do you lay off some of the bet and go for the middle ??10 ?

or are you just keeping the value ?

nice position to be in.
Click to expand...

I might hedge at 10.5 - I'm not even sure if I like the bet. It'll likely be a last second decision for me. It was simply a numbers play at 13.5.

As for UNC, I can't decide if they are lucky or just a team that makes the plays at the right time. The Virginia game on Saturday will go a long way in determining that for me.
 
excellent work on totals this year bro, youve been on point w/ those

good #'s you got on both arky and NCSU, on arky and strong lean towards the latter one as well

they fucked us over w/ arky ML on the 4 point move.... down to +7.5 now

+250 ml... what a terrible price. we should have seen +300 or better.

GL this week bro and to continued success
 
Hi Dmoney, i'm new to this site and i can see you have an outstanding #s on the TT plays. I like your Purdue/Northwestern Over 42.5 pick alot.
 
Thanks YS - GL this weekend.

Thanks Cap - Was just lucky to get Arky before all the news about Lyons and their other injuries broke.

Welcome to the site One. There is good stuff is every thread around here. I like that Purdue total all the way up until 49.5.
 
Pike good to go against UConn
Posted by BKoch at 10/16/2008 6:13 PM EDT on Cincinnati.com

Brian Kelly made it official after practice today. Tony Pike will start at quarterback on Oct. 25 at UConn.

“I knew that physically he could do everything that we needed him to do,” Kelly said, “but was he going to be hesitant mentally? I haven’t seen that at all, so my feeling today is he’ll start, he’ll do the things we ask him to do within our offense and we won’t change anything. It’s a green light.”

Pike, who again practiced with a protective pad around the cast on his left forearm, said he had no problem accepting center snaps with the arm.
 
feeling good about cincy over 6.5. Already cashed one with Arizona St. U 8.5. Some real good discussions we had before the season started.
 
cubsker said:
feeling good about cincy over 6.5. Already cashed one with Arizona St. U 8.5. Some real good discussions we had before the season started.
Click to expand...

Very nice job with the Arizona St. under 8.5. Only one easier than that one would probably be Vandy over 3.

The foundation of the Cincy over 6.5 was their weak schedule in the first six games. I figured they would either be 4-2 or 5-1 coming out of that. Now all we need is 2-5 down the stretch. If they can get one of the next three difficult games (@UConn, USF, @WVU), then it is all but a lock with Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and @Hawaii to wrap up the season.

There is definitely money to be had in those season bets if you are willing to put some money away for a couple months. :cheers:
 
Dmoney416 said:
Probably should have just stayed away, but its a good start to the weekend.

If that game is 4 minutes longer I lose that bet.
Click to expand...


nah line would have been 14.5 if it was a 64 minute game. You had that game evaluated perfectly from a line standpoint. considered playing back at it and if instead of the late fg they had a td with failed 2 point conversion ( or with bowden coaching maybe they kick ) and it would have middled.

anyway , great start to the week ... hope you win the purdue total and hope you get off of the wisconsin bet.

BTW wow on the kentucky number.
 
Nice start to weekend.

Great thread too. Love the boxscore analysis. Thats sexy. The small things you pick up on.

Reading this, talking to a few guys and some other reading and I amy be on UGA train again, just hoping number comes back again.

Great grab on that total for NW-Purdue.
 
VK - Would have been very interesting if they scored a TD there. Luckily they played super-conservatively. The Arkansas number was just lucky as I bet it Sunday before the Lyons injury and others were released. Won't be getting off Wisky though - think they win outright.

Thanks BAR - those box scores also led me to a renewed interest in Georgia. Also, like I mentioned in other threads - just didn't understand that Purdue line. BOL this week.

Any added plays will come from this list:

Central Michigan +2
Georgia -14.5
USM/Rice Under 69
Pittsburgh -2.5
Toledo +9.5
UAB +2.5
Michigan +24.5
Idaho +20.5
North Texas +17.5
 
Wanted to say thanks again for the Purdue/Northwestern total tip in the discussion thread. Feels great to be holding a 43 when the line sits at 50. Gl this week D.
 
JPicks said:
Wanted to say thanks again for the Purdue/Northwestern total tip in the discussion thread. Feels great to be holding a 43 when the line sits at 50. Gl this week D.
Click to expand...

Thanks JPicks - hopefully the game goes how I expect it to. Was happy to see that gradual upward movement as the week went on as 50 is more along the lines of where I expected it to be.
 
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