Week #8 of CFB (10/16-10/18)

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
'08 YTD: 51-44-4, +2.8175 units

Late start to the week, mostly because i've got too many other things going on...not much of which is good. Anyways, i'll be back to fix this thread later in the week. Just wanted to get these posted, since i played them all at various times yesterday/today as i was catching up on my capping...and before any additional line movements on thursday.


Thurs. 10/16

TCU (-1.5) over BYU (-110) for 1 unit W

Fri. 10/17

- no play -

Sat. 10/18

California (-2.5) over Arizona (-110) for 1 unit

Ohio St (-3) over Michigan St (-110) for 1 unit

Pittsburgh (-3) over Navy (-110) for 1 unit

Missouri (+6) over Texas (-110) for 1 unit

Kansas (+21) over Oklahoma (-120) for 1 unit

Baylor (+17) over Oklahoma St (-110) for 1 unit

Georgia Tech (-2) over Clemson (-110) for 1 unit

Virginia Tech (+3) over Boston College (-120) for 1 unit

W Michigan (+3) over C Michigan (-120) for 1 unit

S Carolina (+3) over LSU (-110) for 1 unit

Memphis (+8) over E Carolina (-110) for 1 unit

Mississippi St (+7.5) over Tennessee (-110) for 1 unit

Mississippi (+13) over Alabama (-110) for 1 unit

{and some small action plays}

UTEP (+18) over Tulsa (-110) for 1/2 unit

Florida Intl (+8.5) over Troy (-110) for 1/2 unit

E Michigan (+3.5) over Akron (-110) for 1/2 unit

UNLV (+5) over Air Force (-110) for 1/2 unit

Maryland (+2) over Wake Forest (-110) for 1/2 unit

Nevada (-21) over Utah St (-110) for 1/2 unit

{and the final two additions for the weekend}

Georgia (-14) over Vanderbilt (-120) for 1.5 units

USC 1H (-23.5) over Washington St (-105) for 1.5 units


More to come later, as i get time. But even if i'm brief, whenever i get back online, i'll still be happy to discuss my reasonings behind any of these plays if interested.
Anyways, lots of road warriors/teams so far this week. So much so, i'm a bit uncomfortable...so i'd expect to see some more home teams with any potential additions (which just happened with the last edit).

GL, and be back when i can. :tiphat:
 
Last edited:
Jeebus,

when and where did u find Kansas at 21?

Waiting and hoping on that number before Thursday afternoon rolls around.
 
Your card gives me wood! Hehe. Seriously tho, with you on Cal, and will probably join you on tOSU. Not against you on anything.

GL brotha!

:cheers:
 
Real real nice looking card. I'm thinking and Okie State is in the biggest most obvious trap game ever. After Mizzou, before Texas.

I do think MSU matches up really well with OSU.

I'm not sold on Mizzou this week. They have shown the way to beat them is stop the run. Okie State, OU twice last year did that and nobody else has. Texas DLine will do that. 7 points though is nice cushion knowing your never out of it with Daniel.
 
Yanks,

I'm on Baylor and like Cal but feel like I let the spread get away from me while I was at work and it rose 2 points.

I hope my boys come through for you.

Best of luck
 
With you on atleast 4 of those and looking at south carolina as well.

gl this week.

When you get a chance can you give your thoughts on California ?
 
VK, how low you think SC spread going to go? Do you think it dips below 3?

Greek = LSU -3 -105
 
E.T.G. said:
VK, how low you think SC spread going to go? Do you think it dips below 3?

Greek = LSU -3 -105
Click to expand...


has already dipped below 3 most places.

how the line moves probably depends which trend the late money follows. late money tends to follow name recognition ( which would mean late money on lsu ) and tends to follow "what have you done for me lately" mentality. Based on last weeks Florida game , that money might be on south carolina. Difficult to predict this line move for me .. and i completely misjudged last weeks line move in the lsu game.

personally hoping drbob likes lsu.
 
jeebus...i went off tonight.
4 normal additions...and 6 small (action) additions. rather than dump the leans, which are mostly shit teams, like normal...i freakin' just about played them all of them for half the size.
anyways, don't recommend it & don't like doing it, but here they are...for better or for worse.

TCU (-1.5)
Memphis (+8)
Messy St (+7.5)
Ole Miss (+13)

those are the normal, 1 unit plays/additions. and these are the 1/2 unit action plays/additions.

UTEP (+18)
FIU (+8.5)
EMU (+3.5)
UNLV (+5)
Maryland (+2)
Nevada (-21)

and believe it or not, imma still sitting on two more strong leans...which would/will be normal plays, if the lines move to where i'd want them to be.

Georgia = if it gets to 13.5, from the current 14.5
Kentucky = if it gets to 6.5, from the current 7.5

my head is spinning. freakin' lack of sleep will do that to you, i guess.

anyhow, i'll add them into the 1st post...and see what i can get to, in terms of all these plays.

'an_horse'
 
Aztec4Life said:
Your card gives me wood! Hehe. Seriously tho, with you on Cal, and will probably join you on tOSU. Not against you on anything.

GL brotha!

:cheers:
Click to expand...


Awesome! Thx for the compliment, bro. :shake:
Just hope it still looks good after the crazy shit i did tonight.



O-State said:
Real real nice looking card. I'm thinking and Okie State is in the biggest most obvious trap game ever. After Mizzou, before Texas.

I do think MSU matches up really well with OSU.

I'm not sold on Mizzou this week. They have shown the way to beat them is stop the run. Okie State, OU twice last year did that and nobody else has. Texas DLine will do that. 7 points though is nice cushion knowing your never out of it with Daniel.
Click to expand...


thx, brotha :shake:
i may have tarnished the card a bit tonight...but it is what it is.

anyways, i hear u on mizzou. i just think they were totally looking ahead to texas this week, and got caught with their pants down. i'm also not sold on the texas pass defense...if mizzou is able to give daniels a fair amount of protection.
also agree about the msu matching up with psu well, but only on one side of the ball. i'm not a fan of the spartan offense...and pretty much feel that if psu can stop just one guy (ringer), then sparty won't be putting up any points in this one...at least on offense.
down side is that psu's got ohio st on deck...
 
HUNTDOG said:
with you on Baylor, Mizzou, and Kansas..let's do this.
Click to expand...

deal, bra :shake:


E.T.G. said:
Yanks,

I'm on Baylor and like Cal but feel like I let the spread get away from me while I was at work and it rose 2 points.

I hope my boys come through for you.

Best of luck
Click to expand...

thx, man. i hope they do too. :shake:

been on scary the last 3 weeks i think...and every week BAR gets a text from me complaining about them, until they pull it out late and win/cover.

the cal line got away from all of us though...if that's the side u like. but as long as it's under 3, should still be fine.
 
E.T.G. said:
VK, how low you think SC spread going to go? Do you think it dips below 3?

Greek = LSU -3 -105
Click to expand...


it's 2.5 now...but it wouldn't surprise me to see 3 somewhere down the road this week.
don't see bob on lsu though, so a 4 is definitely not gonna happen (imo).
 
vegaskyle said:
With you on atleast 4 of those and looking at south carolina as well.

gl this week.

When you get a chance can you give your thoughts on California ?
Click to expand...

vk :shake:

ok...cal/zona. i'll start by saying it simply...cal is a better team than zona, lol...despite what the stats to date say.

cal's off a bye week...off of a nice win over arizona st the week before, where they completely dictated/controlled the game (at least the 1st half that i watched). and arizona st is a better team that zona.
zona's off a loss to stanford, where they were exposed again as frauds...proving that the NM game wasn't a fluke. called this one perfectly...and i got BAR on the play last week as well. anyways, stanford is not a better team than cal.

cal's got nothing to look forward too (ucla, unfortunately 4 me)...and zona's got the almighty USC Trojans coming to kick the living shit outta them in a week.

zona's played jack shit so far this year. idaho, toledo, washington w/out a qb are all trash. so their best competition faced was NM, UCLA, and Stanford. lmao. none of those 3 are good teams, by any stretch of the imagination...but they're not trash either.
they lost to (and were killed on the ground by) new mex. nough said. they beat ucla...but my bruins kinda suck. they've got zero offense, no qb, and very little running game...and a defense that is giving up way too many yards on the ground. (ucla, i mean.) so anyways, can't give zona much credit for that win...cuz besdes the fluke win over tenny, my bruins have only beat freakin washington st to date...dammit. and then there was stanford, lol...absolutely destroying zona with the run, and outgaining them for the game as a result. and fwiw, that's a cardinal team w/out much of a secondary.

we all know about cal shitting the bed in maryland, but that was circumstance. bad planning on the arrival time, for an early start on the east coast. well, that kinda shit won't be happening on a trip to zona...where cal's had plenty of success.
but like i said...the cal wins over michigan st and arizona st carry twice the signifigance (competition-wise) than any of zona's wins...or losses, lol.

you know...the reason zona was exposed (as i call it) defensively is because they are so young and inexperienced. sure they had cupcakes to get their feet wet...but that unit, only returning 3, just isn't at the same level as their competition yet...when the competition's not cupcakes, that is.

and i'm not the biggest fan of their offense either. not much of a running attack to fear. tuitama's pretty good, when he's got time...but even stanford's secondary showed what u can do by simply taking away the TE, gronkowski...or limiting him.

cal's gonna win the trenches, imho. cal's got the better offense. we already know zona can be run on, pretty much at will by any decent team...if NM and Stan can do it. and whether it's longshore or riley at qb, cal will have plenty of success throwing the ball too. if they can pick apart the sun devil pass defense in the 1st half...like it was a freakin video game...they have fiar amount of success against the wildcats as well.
zona's gonna have problems against the cal defense. zona will be one dimensional, cuz they won't be able to run on cal at all with their limited run attack. cal's got a decent secondary, and very good LBs...and they can also put pressure on a qb whenever they choose to send an extra man. just ask rudy carpenter...

and the icing on the cake...
best is back. heard/read he's gonna play. by far, the best talent on the field.


anyways, sry for jumping all over the fucking place. trying to briefly hit on so many different points, with limited time/energy. but again...in almost every way, regardless of this season's #s to date, Cal is simply a better team than zona.
 
thanks for the thoughts yanks. Disagree that ASU is a better team than Zona at this point but splitting hairs there i suppose. Sun Devils are a bad football team.

Hadn't even noticed the huge move on the arkansas/kentucky game ( wasn't this thing -11 ). Do you know what that is all about ?? If that is not injury based then i am with you .... hope bob moves it to under a td and we can play it.
 
vegaskyle said:
thanks for the thoughts yanks. Disagree that ASU is a better team than Zona at this point but splitting hairs there i suppose. Sun Devils are a bad football team.

Hadn't even noticed the huge move on the arkansas/kentucky game ( wasn't this thing -11 ). Do you know what that is all about ?? If that is not injury based then i am with you .... hope bob moves it to under a td and we can play it.
Click to expand...


Dicky Lyons is out along with a whole host of others for UK.
 
and every week BAR gets a text from me complaining about them, until they pull it out late and win/cover
Click to expand...

Yup, Scary has been making you age pretty quickly these past few months, lol.

I sent you a text, didn;t know if it was too late to call..but did get that play in prolly an hour before you called. Had a loud movie up and didn;t hear phone..lol

Hopefully Bob is good to us today.

GL tonight wit the frogs.
 
vegaskyle said:
thanks for the thoughts yanks. Disagree that ASU is a better team than Zona at this point but splitting hairs there i suppose. Sun Devils are a bad football team.

Hadn't even noticed the huge move on the arkansas/kentucky game ( wasn't this thing -11 ). Do you know what that is all about ?? If that is not injury based then i am with you .... hope bob moves it to under a td and we can play it.
Click to expand...

imma gonna come back to the ASU/Zona thing, and split another hair or two...as i disagree with your disagreeing, lol.


HUNTDOG said:
Dicky Lyons is out along with a whole host of others for UK.
Click to expand...

that explains it. will have to look into the injuries more...but at first glance, they may be enough to eliminate that lean.
 
JPicks said:
Nice looking card Yanks. GL this week.
Click to expand...

ty, sir. gl2u as well. :shake:


B.A.R. said:
Yup, Scary has been making you age pretty quickly these past few months, lol.

I sent you a text, didn;t know if it was too late to call..but did get that play in prolly an hour before you called. Had a loud movie up and didn;t hear phone..lol

Hopefully Bob is good to us today.

GL tonight wit the frogs.
Click to expand...


hope so, about bob. and thx about tcu. :shake:


anyways, some brief angles on tonight's game...
byu/tcu is in many ways a coin flip game. two good teams, with varying attributes. but there are some angles behind this/my play on tcu.
- you have the thurs nite home team angle...and this home team hasn't given up more than 14 pts this year to anyone other than oklahoma.
- you have the reverse line movement angle, with the pub all over byu and the line going the other way significantly.
- you have the classic lower ranked team (technically 27th) favored over the (higher) ranked team.
- you have the fact that byu has't played a game outside of utah in a month. (and somewhat separately, fwiw, see their trip to tulsa last year.)
- but most importantly, you have the revenge angle. not so long ago, byu snapped the nation's longest current winning streak by beating tcu. well, tonight, tcu has the opportunity to return the favor...by beating byu. i know if i was the HC, i'd be all over that...using it as a lasorda-like motivational tool.

anyways, all that said, my one question in the game is dalton.
 
vegaskyle said:
thanks for the thoughts yanks. Disagree that ASU is a better team than Zona at this point but splitting hairs there i suppose. Sun Devils are a bad football team.
Click to expand...

time to split a hair ;)

to date, record-wise, obviously they're better. but i'm more about competition...and even though things play out, i still hold on some to preseason rankings/etc.

for example...in a hypothetical world, with some type of playoff...if i was given USC (-3) against anyone currently in the national champ picture on a neutral field...i'd jump on USC immediately...if that makes sense...despite what's happened to date this year.


anyways, let's pretend to flop ASU's and Zona's schedules...

i'm willing to give ASU the same loss that Zona had to New Mex, because they were looking ahead to (cough) ucla. but since ASU destroyed stanford earlier in the year, i've got to give them the win there too. so ASU, with Zona's schedule, would be 5-1 at worse...and imo, with more impressive #s.

ok, now the other way. i'm willing to give Zona the win over UNLV, because they wouldn't (cough) be looking ahead to Georgia. but they'd still have losses to both UGA and USC...much worse losses to both of those top notch teams, imho...not to mention what would've been a loss to Cal already, at a similar score. so Zona, with ASU's schedule, would be 3-3 at best.

now of course, it's hypothetical nonsense in a way. but the fact remains that zona only has their record/those numbers because they had a cupcake laden schedule. conversely, ASU has their current record because they've played much stiffer competition. so that's why i say i dont' completely forget where i/the publications had these teams before the seasons began to play out...because imo, with all things equal/healthy/etc, ASU is a much better team than Zona overall. But that can only be truly proven on the field.

oh well...that other post details why i think Cal is the play here...and why i don't give Zona much of a chance at the upset. stranger things have happened though.
 
ok, my final 2 additions for the week... 'an_horse'


UGA (-14) @ (-120) for 1.5 units
&
USC 1H (-23.5) @ (-105) for 1.5 units


The line wasn't moving, so i had to end up buying it to 14 pts...as i jsut think Georgia rolls Vandy here. Rolls.

We all know how bad wash st is...thus the 42.5 pt line for the game. However, i was a bit worried the trojans would relax after the 1st half. But whether they do or not, there'll be a lot of 2nd & 3rd teamers getting the playing time during the 2nd half for usc.
Also, the last 2 conference home games for wazzou this season at the half...Cal 42 - Wash St 3...Oregon 35 - Wash St 7. If the greatest team in college football (in only my opinion still) can't at the very least equal that 28 pt 1st half lead of the ducks, over this glorified (cougar) HS team, then i'll be completely shocked.


Anyways, that's it. That's more than enough for the week.:popcorn:
 
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