Week 8 ML Dogs Edition

I was just getting the thread started and was 2 minutes late.

I counted 12 upsets last week with many "almosts".
 
I'm not going to be able to post much after today, so wanted to get some ideas out of ones I might play.

Tulane - Kinda crazy town. Hard to think of a team that needed a bye week as bad as Tulane. When I look at SMU I see a team that only led North Texas 14-12 mid 3rd Q (won 35-12), would've lost to LaTech if not for a perfectly bounced hail mary pass (won 39-37), has impressive win vs TCU, only led 27-17 vs USF in 4th Q (won 41-17) and was tied with Navy in the 4th Q (won 31-24). In 4 of those "only" games SMU did enough late to either pull away or win, but it does make me wonder, why they find themselves in such close games vs teams they should be superior to? This is a series that SMU has done well in, winning the last 6, although 4 of the last 5 have been decided by 4 points or less. Tulane appears to be broken, hopefully they found some answers the past 2 weeks.

Charlotte - Big worry about the run D as 49er run D has been liability all season vs everyone not named FIU. Common opponent being FIU, Charlotte beat them 45-33 (17-6 HT, Char led by 18 often throughout the game), FAU beat them 58-21 (34-21 HT). Under HC Healy, Charlotte is 3-0 at home this year (one upset vs Duke), 1-1 at home last year (lost big on Sunday ssn finale vs WKU) and 5-1 at home 2019 (3 upsets) with only loss being a big one to FAU 27-45, but was just a 21-24 in the 3rd Q. FAU was a mess last year so hard to take too much away from that, Charlotte lost by 4 catching 5. FAU has played some good teams on the road (FL, AF and UAB) but have lost all 3 big by combined 35-97 score (Perry threw 3 INTs vs UAB and completed just 33% passes at AF). Playing Charlotte will be easier for them compared to those 3. Still hard to believe they are that much better than an upcoming Charlotte team with a good offense and veteran QB. Plus I'll be at the game, so some ML play on the home team hopefully will make it fun!

Arizona - This one relies upon the theory that Washington will have completely given up on their season and therefore are vulnerable to road upset even vs a poor team. UW comes in 2-4 and 1-2 in league play having barely beat Cal in OT as their only P5 win. Washington has lots of problems, can't move the ball, can't run, can't pass, can't score and allows teams to run easily on them. That sounds like a slam dunk, but Arizona has been a very bad offensive unit (worst statistically in all those categories than UW although some aren't too far off) - so can they take advantage of these unexpected and somewhat unexplainable UW weaknesses? Fun fact...Arizona actually allows a better ypc on D than UW! Just 4.72 to 4.78, but this is uncharted territory for Washington who at one time not long ago boasted one of the best defenses in the PAC12. Personnel and pedigree wise this is a total mismatch, thing that keeps me looking at it is that Washington has played so bad this year and if they do that here. Arizona avg margin of defeat vs FBS is 21 pts, so, this very clearly is a long shot. Washington has had some WTF games on the road, check out 2019, lost as 14.5 pt fav at then 4-6 Colorado and lost as 15 pt fav at then 2-3 Stanford, 2018 lost at then 4-3 Cal as 11.5 pt fav. In fact when Washington is a DD road fav, UW is just 4-8 ATS the last 5 years and lost 4 straight up. UW is just 1-4 ATS in the state of Arizona since 2016. This doesn't sound great, but consider that Arizona D has held four opponents below 400 yards of O this year in 6 games. Compare that to 2020-2019 when their D accomplished that just ONCE in 17 games. Arizona is allowing 32 ppg, but that is a full TD better than 2020.

I'll see if I can get to some Saturday looks tonight yet.
 
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LA Tech
Army
Charlotte
Purdue- I really didn't want to play Purdue this week but no way I'm betting Wisky as a fave.
 
CPA-hole said:
LA Tech
Army
Charlotte
Purdue- I really didn't want to play Purdue this week but no way I'm betting Wisky as a fave.
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i have no idea what purdue play like but yea there no chance i lay points on wiscy till they move on from Mertz! it doesnt even matter if they dominate the game they cant score tds in the red zone..

why you like army? that line feels short to me.
 
TahoeLegend said:
LSU
Okla State
La Tech
Memphis
Kansas St
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no idea why k-st dogs to tech? only reason im waiting on that one is cause i hate backing a team that opens as dogs and gets bet to favs so gonna have to wait that one out and hope money doesnt drive k-st to favs.. other than the records dont see what to like bout tech and the records easy enough to explain as k=st been facing the tougher big12 teams while tech hasnt been..plus k-st had to play without thomson for a few weeks, seems like a good spot for them to snap this 3 game skid they on.. cats have owned this matchup the last decade, my only concern the redic completion percentage they been allowing, teams completing damn near 75% their passes vs them, surely they cant continue being that bad?
 
i wanna like ecu again, houston pass rush worries me tho. 13.5 def seems high to me, not sure about pulling the upset.
 
wazzu maybe? byu has beaten a couple teams that have beat wazzu, dunno if i like that, another thing i dont like is how byu been playing lately, does getting back into playing pac12 team bring out the best in them? as of now byu the pac12 champs! lol..i dont think byu secondary has the ability to cover very well, wazzu qb has put together some solid passing performances lately..
 
2daBank said:
wazzu maybe? byu has beaten a couple teams that have beat wazzu, dunno if i like that, another thing i dont like is how byu been playing lately, does getting back into playing pac12 team bring out the best in them? as of now byu the pac12 champs! lol..i dont think byu secondary has the ability to cover very well, wazzu qb has put together some solid passing performances lately..
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I want to bet Wazzou but no idea how they respond after their coach just got the axe.
 
CPA-hole said:
I want to bet Wazzou but no idea how they respond after their coach just got the axe.
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They knew it when they played last week and did the whole celebrate like you just won the 'ship thing for him

That's why they're on the fade list for me let alone I just like BYU to control the line better than vice versa
 
KJ said:
They knew it when they played last week and did the whole celebrate like you just won the 'ship thing for him

That's why they're on the fade list for me let alone I just like BYU to control the line better than vice versa
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Think LSU is in the exact same spot this week.
 
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CPA-hole said:
Think LSU is in the exact same spot this week.
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I dunno, I actually think they will play hard for O rest of way. Dunno what that equates to? If they continue running the ball like they have the last few they should be able to hang around, plus who knows if Corral playing?
 
2daBank said:
I dunno, I actually think they will play hard for O rest of way. Dunno what that equates to? If they continue running the ball like they have the last few they should be able to hang around, plus who knows if Corral playing?
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Ole Miss retiring Eli's number this weekend and the young one is gonna be in the house to watch

ProV even sent a photo, the endzones are gonna be painted "Manning" or one will be Eli and the other Manning, should be electric

And can't convince me Lane doesn't have a capable backup of Corral can't go
 
Actually not sure if they're retiring the number or putting him on some wall of fame type thing but same idea
 
KJ said:
Ole Miss retiring Eli's number this weekend and the young one is gonna be in the house to watch

ProV even sent a photo, the endzones are gonna be painted "Manning" or one will be Eli and the other Manning, should be electric

And can't convince me Lane doesn't have a capable backup of Corral can't go
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Probably does. Still no chance I’m laying 10ish with them. Can’t see myself betting lsu games one way or the other rest of the way. They impossible for me to figure out! I thought they would roll Auburn at night, didn’t think they win another sec game and they come out and take it to the gators. Fuck if I’m gonna pretend to have any idea how they gonna play from one week to the next! If they continue giving that back 20+ carries I don’t see why they wouldn’t hang in this one? I really havnt been impressed wit Ol piss, was super high on them coming into the year, after the d looked great vs ville was even higher. Last few weeks they have looked suspect at best.
 
sdst being dogs to air force makes no sense, aztecs are ranked tho and hate playing ranked dog to unranked, havnt seen anyone tracking it this year but think it almost always around 60% or higher for unranked fav,, tough to make a play against that, lol..

from a x's and o's i dunno what to like bout AF? sdst run d is always strong, they havnt played for a few years but aztecs always seem to do well slowing down the option. AF does have a new wrinkle this year with a qb who actually a pretty capable passer. actually dont know where offense is gonna come from either side which makes the +3.5 really appealing.
 
mcculran said:
@2daBank what do you think about bc this week? Aren’t these teams about equal? +6.5/7 seems like alot…
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I have them on my lean list but didn’t get to it yet. Was planning on doing tonight but I’m still waiting on my contacts I ordered 2-3 weeks ago! Been using this last pair way too long, been scared to take them out last few weeks, and my eyes blurry as shit tonight! Lol. Figured it be better to get some rest instead of be sloppy capping it so I’ll do 2marro post after.

Off top my head my concern is Grosel. Dude plays well at times but made some atrocious plays against Clemson, obviously ville defense a big step down from that. He was pretty awful vs ncst also. Bye came at a good time for ville, can’t believe they blew that game vs uva, well guess I can as I said in Tahoe thread that was my concern that ville would out play them then let Uva come back. Still annoyed me when it actually happened! Lol.

BC just hasn’t been easy for me to figure out since Jurnovec went down. They still havnt beaten a quality team but suppose same can be said bout ville. Guess I feel like ville looked mostly pretty good in their last 2 losses (other than the 4th qrtr vs uva) and now they had a week off to regroup, on other hand BC was awful last week and while they played with clemson if Grosel wasn’t so trash they win that game. Still agree 6 seems like a lot in what most likely a one possession game.
 
It’s going to come down to how well Charlotte‘s D plays. I think 49er O will be ok and nothing FAU does on D scares me. Both teams have converted at least 41% 3rd down every game but one for each. FAU is 51.6% for ssn. That was story last night with Coastal normally converting high clip but they held to just 3-of-9 last night (were 64%entering). Charlotte needs a big D effort tonight to disrupt I think to have chance to win. Unless it’s shootout.
 
Looks tough this Saturday to find good candidates with good odds.

Texas St - again. Turnovers are always going to be concern with them. It’s the reason they lost last week. Last week, one thing Troy has proved to be is a pretty strong defensive unit. The stats could be skewed by schedules faced but first glance GeoSt is not that kind of team being significantly worse than Troy in most every category. If that shows it’s self on the field TxSt may find more success vs them than last week. Never know what one will get with GeoSt O with very up and down games.

Boston College - weren’t as bad as final vs NCSt last week although O was A problem in second H. Offense usually not a problem for Ville, but D and consistency are. Odds are higher than maybe they should be here.

Northern Illinois - NIU has been one of the best surprises this season! 3-0 in MAC vs other west contender here. NIU loves to run and they showed last week it doesn’t matter who is doing it. CMich has edge on D, but when only looking at MAC game stats, NIU not far behind. Last year was competitive game 1st H then I seem to remember a comedy of errors leading to 2nd H blowout. Should be good game which either can win here.

East Carolina - Will need to rely on some schitzo nature previous Houston teams have shown. Cougs were playing some of their best ball before the bye (lose momentum?). ECU has competed well in many this year, two of their three loses have come in final :30 seconds of game. ECU with some players on both O and D. ECU comes in with perhaps better O…although Houston D has been nasty.
 
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s--k said:
Looks tough this Saturday to find good candidates with good odds.

Texas St - again. Turnovers are always going to be concern with them. It’s the reason they lost last week. Last week, one thing Troy has proved to be is a pretty strong defensive unit. The stats could be skewed by schedules faced but first glance GeoSt is not that kind of team being significantly worse than Troy in most every category. If that shows it’s self on the field TxSt may find more success vs them than last week. Never know what one will get with GeoSt O with very up and down games.

Boston College - weren’t as bad as final vs NCSt last week although O was A problem in second H. Offense usually not a problem for Ville, but D and consistency are. Odds are higher than maybe they should be here.

Northern Illinois - NIU has been one of the best surprises this season! 3-0 in MAC vs other west contender here. NIU loves to run and they showed last week it doesn’t matter who is doing it. CMich has edge on D, but when only looking at MAC game stats, NIU not far behind. Last year was competitive game 1st H then I seem to remember a comedy of errors leading to 2nd H blowout. Should be good game which either can win here.

East Carolina - Will need to rely on some schitzo nature previous Houston teams have shown. Cougs were playing some of their best ball before the bye (lose momentum?). ECU has competed well in many this year, two of their three loses have come in final :30 seconds of game. ECU with some players on both O and D. ECU comes in with perhaps better O…although Houston D has been nasty.
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the amount of pressure teams getting on ecu qb and houston sack rate really my biggest concern for ecu here, i dont see myself passing up the points, not sure if i have gotten there far as playing the ml..

leaning BC also, i could def get behind the ml there, although i like the points better cause think that most likely a one possession game.
 
Colorado - seeing Cal lay over a TD seems inviting As they are 0-5 vs FBS and scoring just 17, 6 and 24 is PAC-12 play. CU O not much better with just 13 and 14 in two games prior to last weeks 34 which was partially fueled by D and ST. Cal has more capability behind better QB but that hasn’t translated to results in league play. Cal is third worst 3rd down O (38%) while CU is last (32%). Cal has more total ypg thanks to passing game, but rushing ypg and ypc is similar. Cal RZ scoring % and TD% is poor; CU is 100% although only been there 7x in 3 games (57% TD rate to Cal’s 50%). CU has gone from just 67y passing vs ASU to 162 vs USC to 248 vs Zona all while attempting similar 17/19 passes per game. Is this improvement real? Cal bottom 3rd pass eff D in league while CU pass eff D in top 1/3, odd. Teams do prefer to run on CU as they face 10 fewer att per game. Cal D ranks in bottom 10% nationally in 3rd down conv allowed, while CU surprisingly is a top 25 unit in this category. I’d figure for a lower scoring game and Cal hasn’t been able to keep a lead on anybody or score much vs league foes. Counter argument is Cal’s faced significantly better teams and CU is their weakest FBS foe yet. Are they really that much better though?
 
s--k said:
Colorado - seeing Cal lay over a TD seems inviting As they are 0-5 vs FBS and scoring just 17, 6 and 24 is PAC-12 play. CU O not much better with just 13 and 14 in two games prior to last weeks 34 which was partially fueled by D and ST. Cal has more capability behind better QB but that hasn’t translated to results in league play. Cal is third worst 3rd down O (38%) while CU is last (32%). Cal has more total ypg thanks to passing game, but rushing ypg and ypc is similar. Cal RZ scoring % and TD% is poor; CU is 100% although only been there 7x in 3 games (57% TD rate to Cal’s 50%). CU has gone from just 67y passing vs ASU to 162 vs USC to 248 vs Zona all while attempting similar 17/19 passes per game. Is this improvement real? Cal bottom 3rd pass eff D in league while CU pass eff D in top 1/3, odd. Teams do prefer to run on CU as they face 10 fewer att per game. Cal D ranks in bottom 10% nationally in 3rd down conv allowed, while CU surprisingly is a top 25 unit in this category. I’d figure for a lower scoring game and Cal hasn’t been able to keep a lead on anybody or score much vs league foes. Counter argument is Cal’s faced significantly better teams and CU is their weakest FBS foe yet. Are they really that much better though?
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Cal d has been a huge disappointment the last few years, i gave them a pass last year as i did most everyone but hasnt been any better this go around.. i was kinda thinking the same thing in the arizona game, should udub really be laying that kind of number to anyone? certainly wouldnt shock me if either cal or udub went on the road and lost (although it been a really long time since i last remember arizona winning a game!)..
 
Two looks I had Thursday were awful, man Charlotte leading 9-7 HT looking equal with FAU then out scored 31-0 2nd H!! When a team is broken (Tulane), bye week isn't enough to fix it. SMU's most dominating win of the year the one I said they might lose! Got to take good with bad, still looking for the good this week. Tough loss for anyone that had UNLV. I had +6 and feel pretty bad.
 
I've rarely seen a team get dominated like Charlotte 2nd half, good God that was awful. I also had UNLV in my other contest and was speechless.
 
texsn95 said:
I've rarely seen a team get dominated like Charlotte 2nd half, good God that was awful. I also had UNLV in my other contest and was speechless.
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i didnt see any the charlotte game, didnt make any plays last night so wasnt any chance i was watching that! i knew some my buddies around here were on them tho so i followed scoreboard a little,, we see lot of games flip at halftime but yea, that was one the more drastic ones i recall in recent memory! what the hell happened in those locker rooms? lol
 
I saw the Charlotte debacle in person. I'd almost question if Chris Reynolds was tanking. His throws, reads and ball handling were so poor and off the mark in the 3rd Q. The D got outrun once FAU got their guys out on edge and had coverage busts. Charlotte missed FG and xpt in 1st H. Each team lost fumble. Could've been 13-7 Charlotte.
 
Houston has SMU on deck. I'm sure there has been some buzz about that game.
 
s--k said:
Oh, I did play Arizona ML 50 to win 300
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Illinois 10 to win 110
NIU 50 to win 97
Maryland 50 to win 78
Colorado 50 to win 140
ECU 50 to win 200
GT 50 to win 105
USC 50 to win 110
 
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