Week 8 ML Dogs Discussion
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CHSGTMD
Pretty much a regular
Well, here we go again lol
There were a few more than normal ML dogs win outright in week 7.
Syracuse as +20 and Vandy as +14 and UNM were big outright winners.
UNC, NWestern, Minn, Arkansas, Temple, UNLV and E Mich also won as dogs, most on away games.
Unfortunately I only had E Mich cover and win ML, thank you S-K for the great info on this game.
My other plays were points and ML on Iowa St, Oregon St, Indiana, Georgia Southern, Wake Forest.
For all plays went 3-2-1 and only 1-5 on ML so down week.
On first day review of week 8 lines nothing really jumping out strong.
Some leans are a few home underdogs like Arizona State +7, Iowa +3.
Others on the radar are Stanford +3, Virginia +7, UCLA, South Alabama (rivalry)
I know it may be sucker play but do like Arkansas + 9
Will be checking in and hope to have another good week with this thread.
There were a few more than normal ML dogs win outright in week 7.
Syracuse as +20 and Vandy as +14 and UNM were big outright winners.
UNC, NWestern, Minn, Arkansas, Temple, UNLV and E Mich also won as dogs, most on away games.
Unfortunately I only had E Mich cover and win ML, thank you S-K for the great info on this game.
My other plays were points and ML on Iowa St, Oregon St, Indiana, Georgia Southern, Wake Forest.
For all plays went 3-2-1 and only 1-5 on ML so down week.
On first day review of week 8 lines nothing really jumping out strong.
Some leans are a few home underdogs like Arizona State +7, Iowa +3.
Others on the radar are Stanford +3, Virginia +7, UCLA, South Alabama (rivalry)
I know it may be sucker play but do like Arkansas + 9
Will be checking in and hope to have another good week with this thread.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
A few thoughts early without much in depth look yet ..
Oregon 3 ... Oregon is putrid and while Cal run d has improved as the season has gone, ducks should be able to run all over them. Webb a little banged up for Cal. Seems like an opportunity for a little primetime game redemption for kids who came to oregon to compete in big games. Dead coach walking alert.
Indiana - Better team getting pts is sometimes a good ml dog spot.
Texas - Ertz beat up, Hubener sucks. Kstate continues to get slaughtered in the boxscore. That usually means you are not very good.
Iowa - Letdown spot for Wisconsin who is offensively challenged regardless.
Colorado - See Indiana comments.
Texas A M - Seem to give Bama a little trouble. One of the few defensive lines in the nation that can match up against the bama oline. Second and third level of the ags defense would have to have their best game and the offense would need to play a clean game. But this is a good team, making it doable.
TCU - In a better spot than WVU. The games between these two teams have been crazy. Teams are pretty even and styles make it even more volatile.
Illinois - Just kidding
ECU - See colorado comments
UTEP - UTSA is awful, game will have few possessions.
Old Dominion - Don't laugh. They are playing well and this is a sneaky bad spot for overrated hilltoppers.
Oregon 3 ... Oregon is putrid and while Cal run d has improved as the season has gone, ducks should be able to run all over them. Webb a little banged up for Cal. Seems like an opportunity for a little primetime game redemption for kids who came to oregon to compete in big games. Dead coach walking alert.
Indiana - Better team getting pts is sometimes a good ml dog spot.
Texas - Ertz beat up, Hubener sucks. Kstate continues to get slaughtered in the boxscore. That usually means you are not very good.
Iowa - Letdown spot for Wisconsin who is offensively challenged regardless.
Colorado - See Indiana comments.
Texas A M - Seem to give Bama a little trouble. One of the few defensive lines in the nation that can match up against the bama oline. Second and third level of the ags defense would have to have their best game and the offense would need to play a clean game. But this is a good team, making it doable.
TCU - In a better spot than WVU. The games between these two teams have been crazy. Teams are pretty even and styles make it even more volatile.
Illinois - Just kidding
ECU - See colorado comments
UTEP - UTSA is awful, game will have few possessions.
Old Dominion - Don't laugh. They are playing well and this is a sneaky bad spot for overrated hilltoppers.
HammersSpreads
Pretty much a regular
Haven't posted all year but have been keeping an eye on all y'all
TCU is a banger this week IMO. Like Kyle said, both teams are very even. Better spot for TCU off bye (much like WVU was off bye last week). Last week was good spot for WVU, which was a game that now makes people forget that WVU shoulda lost to K-State and wasn't overly impressive against BYU.
Patterson is like 10-0 ATS off a bye, with the only outright loss being Baylor 3yrs ago. Think we see a completely different TCU team this weekend.
A&M and Old Dominion look tasty too...much of same reasons Kyle said.
Iowa and Navy look pretty good too
TCU is a banger this week IMO. Like Kyle said, both teams are very even. Better spot for TCU off bye (much like WVU was off bye last week). Last week was good spot for WVU, which was a game that now makes people forget that WVU shoulda lost to K-State and wasn't overly impressive against BYU.
Patterson is like 10-0 ATS off a bye, with the only outright loss being Baylor 3yrs ago. Think we see a completely different TCU team this weekend.
A&M and Old Dominion look tasty too...much of same reasons Kyle said.
Iowa and Navy look pretty good too
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I'm not sure I see one I would play right now in the TD and up variety.
Perhaps something from this group? TCU, Idaho, Tex A&M, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Arz St
Arizona St just got dominated so bad last week vs Colorado...kind of like last time they got pounded at USC came home and beat UCLA. Seems like a game that Wazzou could lose focus on after playing three straight historic conference heavy-weights. Wilkins' ankle is still hurt, he didn't/couldn't run from the pocket vs CU and the CU hit him often. Az St D got shredded. But I feel like I've seen that movie before, when you think Az St is just one of the worst teams in football they jump up and surprise you with something good. Did you know that Washington State was the last team in the country without a made FG? Yeah, kid was 0-5 (1 miss in every game) and made two vs UCLA. Just saying...that could matter. Wazzou as conference road chalk just feels so so wrong. The win at Stanford was great for them, but looking at last year W St's road games were decided by 3, 6 (lost), 7, 3, 4, 35 (apple cup lost). Think this game is close and not sure W St wins it. Arz St may have an edge in their D prep having already faced TT and Cal - won both...although W St has shown a nice ability to run at times this year.
Have we seen enough from LSU vs quality competition to think that Ole Miss can't win this game? Or have we not seen enough from OM to think they can? I think they certainly can. Kept a stray eye on the SM-LSU game and it was dead even the entire first half...then lots of big plays and things came easy for Tigers in the 2nd half to blow it open. So Arkansas wasn't supposed to beat Ole Miss, but actually close games are the rule in that series (except for 2 years ago when Ark blew them out...typically it is a game that can go either way, so just saying, not a huge surprise from me). So what do they do now, pack it in and give up on the year? I think this game could be a dog fight, OM has shown bounce-back ability off a loss. Kelly off arguably his worst game of the year, I think he is better than that.
Auburn kicked the shit out of Miss St...so what? UK might beat Miss St this weekend. Arkansas got the shit kicked out of them by Texas A&M? So what? Teams evolve, teams improve or regress as the seasons wears on. One thing I like about Arkansas is the Ds they have faced. They have already played Bama and Texas A&M, sure those teams got the best of them, but it isn't like playing Auburn's D is going to be some huge step up for this team. They should be able to learn from those games and get better for it. And on the other side of the ball we know that Auburn's passing game scares no one (except Dan Mullen).
Idaho is really humming right now on O, vs probably the worst defenses in the country yes, but they have experience and competence on O that App St hasn't seen for a couple weeks. I mean, Idaho can score some in this game I think. Need to think more on it I suppose.
First time in 4 games I lost betting against WVU last week and it is hard to not be impressed with how they played all around. They looked good. Might be worried they can build on that and roll a little bit, but I'm reminded by how they looked vs Kansas St and BYU just 2 and 3 weeks ago...teams that atleast play some defense....Texas Tech does not. Now the worry here is that TCU doesn't play D anymore either. 2 weeks to prepare, can Patterson put a unit on the field that isn't a sieve? Probably not. But that Frog O has shown really well at times. Are we buying this WVU D yet? I'm still a doubter.
Perhaps something from this group? TCU, Idaho, Tex A&M, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Arz St
Arizona St just got dominated so bad last week vs Colorado...kind of like last time they got pounded at USC came home and beat UCLA. Seems like a game that Wazzou could lose focus on after playing three straight historic conference heavy-weights. Wilkins' ankle is still hurt, he didn't/couldn't run from the pocket vs CU and the CU hit him often. Az St D got shredded. But I feel like I've seen that movie before, when you think Az St is just one of the worst teams in football they jump up and surprise you with something good. Did you know that Washington State was the last team in the country without a made FG? Yeah, kid was 0-5 (1 miss in every game) and made two vs UCLA. Just saying...that could matter. Wazzou as conference road chalk just feels so so wrong. The win at Stanford was great for them, but looking at last year W St's road games were decided by 3, 6 (lost), 7, 3, 4, 35 (apple cup lost). Think this game is close and not sure W St wins it. Arz St may have an edge in their D prep having already faced TT and Cal - won both...although W St has shown a nice ability to run at times this year.
Have we seen enough from LSU vs quality competition to think that Ole Miss can't win this game? Or have we not seen enough from OM to think they can? I think they certainly can. Kept a stray eye on the SM-LSU game and it was dead even the entire first half...then lots of big plays and things came easy for Tigers in the 2nd half to blow it open. So Arkansas wasn't supposed to beat Ole Miss, but actually close games are the rule in that series (except for 2 years ago when Ark blew them out...typically it is a game that can go either way, so just saying, not a huge surprise from me). So what do they do now, pack it in and give up on the year? I think this game could be a dog fight, OM has shown bounce-back ability off a loss. Kelly off arguably his worst game of the year, I think he is better than that.
Auburn kicked the shit out of Miss St...so what? UK might beat Miss St this weekend. Arkansas got the shit kicked out of them by Texas A&M? So what? Teams evolve, teams improve or regress as the seasons wears on. One thing I like about Arkansas is the Ds they have faced. They have already played Bama and Texas A&M, sure those teams got the best of them, but it isn't like playing Auburn's D is going to be some huge step up for this team. They should be able to learn from those games and get better for it. And on the other side of the ball we know that Auburn's passing game scares no one (except Dan Mullen).
Idaho is really humming right now on O, vs probably the worst defenses in the country yes, but they have experience and competence on O that App St hasn't seen for a couple weeks. I mean, Idaho can score some in this game I think. Need to think more on it I suppose.
First time in 4 games I lost betting against WVU last week and it is hard to not be impressed with how they played all around. They looked good. Might be worried they can build on that and roll a little bit, but I'm reminded by how they looked vs Kansas St and BYU just 2 and 3 weeks ago...teams that atleast play some defense....Texas Tech does not. Now the worry here is that TCU doesn't play D anymore either. 2 weeks to prepare, can Patterson put a unit on the field that isn't a sieve? Probably not. But that Frog O has shown really well at times. Are we buying this WVU D yet? I'm still a doubter.
ksimpsc
Pretty much a regular
Giant conference OT win that they frankly were lucky to get.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
The NC St/Louisville matchup is intriguing. The way the Wolfpack defense flys around with reckless abandonment could land someone in the hospital. If Mr Heisman tucks it one too many times, it could be him. I have said in conversation with some people that it will only take one good clean hit to shy him. He is not that accurate of a thrower to carry the team through the air. Petrino is a master at calling crossers and rubs so open receivers are all over the field. QB has had a time hitting them. This is a long shot, but college football provides at least one a week. At +700,it may be worth some beer money.
Most that jumped off the page has had the value sucked out of them.
indiana
Virginia + 275
Tulane +335
Kentucky +145
UTEP + 300
Ole Miss +194
I don't play ML, but these are some I could see.
Most that jumped off the page has had the value sucked out of them.
indiana
Virginia + 275
Tulane +335
Kentucky +145
UTEP + 300
Ole Miss +194
I don't play ML, but these are some I could see.
austinhous
Pretty much a regular
CHSGTMD
Pretty much a regular
Still not finding many plays that I like this weekend.
However, being the cfb degenerate I am going to go small on these
Arkansas + 10 1/2 1 unit and ML 0.2
UTEP + 10 1/2 and ML half unit total
Arizona St + 7 1/2 and ML half unit total
and my ultra long shot U Mass + 21 and ML small
betting 2.3 units total on these and a ML parlay of the first 3
However, being the cfb degenerate I am going to go small on these
Arkansas + 10 1/2 1 unit and ML 0.2
UTEP + 10 1/2 and ML half unit total
Arizona St + 7 1/2 and ML half unit total
and my ultra long shot U Mass + 21 and ML small
betting 2.3 units total on these and a ML parlay of the first 3
Well Da U let me down on Thursday. This week is tough... but there are plenty teams around that +100 to +175 range that look nice.
Cal tonight, Ind, Akron, Navy, Kan St, Col & Col St, East Carolina
I'll try to narrow these down tonight.
3 I am eyeing at in the SEC
MTSU +260
aTm +635
Arky +345
Cal tonight, Ind, Akron, Navy, Kan St, Col & Col St, East Carolina
I'll try to narrow these down tonight.
3 I am eyeing at in the SEC
MTSU +260
aTm +635
Arky +345
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CHSGTMD
Pretty much a regular
GL Colt
Like Indiana too, agree on Ark, want to but not able to pull trigger on aTm
Gotta wonder if Bama 2016 is one of those teams that years from now are legendary
think Mizzou scores big on MTSU but GL on that
This season lots of good weeks on dogs but think this week favorites get revenge and things adjust to the mean
Like Indiana too, agree on Ark, want to but not able to pull trigger on aTm
Gotta wonder if Bama 2016 is one of those teams that years from now are legendary
think Mizzou scores big on MTSU but GL on that
This season lots of good weeks on dogs but think this week favorites get revenge and things adjust to the mean
CHSGTMD
Pretty much a regular
Don't know much about UTEP but UTSA is home team here and is improving.
They are hot and cold, have new coach this year, have played better at home than road.
Played best games against So Miss with lots of long passes and runs.
Strong effort vs Arizona St, should have won the game but faded late.
UTSA this year and last couple years has trouble in second half.
They have lost a lot of games they should have won so like UTEP +10 and think ML worth small try
Biggest concern with UTEP is offense averages 332 yds per game but they have played much tougher competition
Think they bring enough to cover and have small $ on ML myself
Texas State also close by and step daughter and our $$ flows to San Marcos.
Another rising team, new coach but inconsistent though have had some solid effort.
Same as UTSA, more of a home than road team but have weapons and like em as home dogs
Texas State averaging about 35 ppg last 3 games, they stay competitive with similar talent, get blown out by much better teams
Think they are a good home dog and ML small
Don;t know anything about the other game
Gl this weekend Colt and all CTG
Will be away at HS reunion most weekend so watching games but offline
They are hot and cold, have new coach this year, have played better at home than road.
Played best games against So Miss with lots of long passes and runs.
Strong effort vs Arizona St, should have won the game but faded late.
UTSA this year and last couple years has trouble in second half.
They have lost a lot of games they should have won so like UTEP +10 and think ML worth small try
Biggest concern with UTEP is offense averages 332 yds per game but they have played much tougher competition
Think they bring enough to cover and have small $ on ML myself
Texas State also close by and step daughter and our $$ flows to San Marcos.
Another rising team, new coach but inconsistent though have had some solid effort.
Same as UTSA, more of a home than road team but have weapons and like em as home dogs
Texas State averaging about 35 ppg last 3 games, they stay competitive with similar talent, get blown out by much better teams
Think they are a good home dog and ML small
Don;t know anything about the other game
Gl this weekend Colt and all CTG
Will be away at HS reunion most weekend so watching games but offline
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
If you like taking teams off humbling losses:
Question is if NM St can do anything about it. Allowed 55 pts just a few minutes into the 4th quarter when Idaho pulled their starters!
They had a stretch not that long ago of 500 yards of O vs UK, Troy and ULL...although somehow they only scored 6 pts on 539 yards vs Troy. Rogers has passed for 300-400 yards the last 3 weeks (with a 5-7 ratio), Rose has yet to have a big impact after missing the first 3 games.
I will say that to the eye, Georgia Southern is a different team this year. 3 straight losses, 1 as a favorite to Ark St. They are playing their 4th straight road game and App St on deck Thursday with a short week to prep.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I agree on just about all of those. Although I don't have the balls for the NC St call. But I find my own long shot dogs so everyone has a hunch here and there and we all know that surprising big dog upsets do happen and can work for some big money if you can get a handle on who it will be.
Would have to learn a bit more on the UTEP-UTSA matchup which I will be doing. I like all of those with the points atleast if nothing else except for maybe Tulane which I just don't have a feel for that one.
I'm starting to like UVA some. Upset could happen there. Last year NC won 26-13 laying 17, but it was close. 4 Matt Johns INTs was the difference. UVA led 3-0, 10-7, and was just 13-13 at halftime. In the 2nd half, INT set NC up inside the 16 for a FG, later Vir threw INT at the 50 leading to FG, next time NC had the ball they were inside the 5, but thew INT in the EZ, Johns then lost a fumble on a sack and their final drive INT was pretty much at time expired didn't matter for much. 5 of their 6 2nd half drives ended in INT or fumble!
Virginia is improved this year, playing pretty well at times. We know who NC is, they are going to be good on O. Still have to wonder about that D however. Using a common opponent...Pitt put up 36 and 421 on Heels (5.77 ypp). UVA held them to just 346 and 45 pts because Pitt had some possessions eliminated with non-offensive TDs, however Pitt only had 4.94 ypp on UVA. UNC did have much more success vs Pitt D than Virginia did last week, which maybe isn't surprising given who they are...still a game Pitt let slip away. Virginia had their way with that Pitt D in the 1st half with 314 yards, surprisingly they had just 81 in the 2nd half.
Virginia has potential if they can play something close to a 4 quarter game. Stopping the NC O isn't easy short of a hurricane coming through. Some turnovers would help. Absent of that, if Virginia can be efficient on O as they have in other games it has a chance if the NC D that we think we know shows up. I'll be on them with the pts will weigh the ML prospect....+345 now.
And Kentucky too. I think the improvement we've seen on both O and D there is real, but with the competition just being SC and Vandy. Hard to put much stock in the Bama game, but atleast they didn't lose that one in big time beat-down fashion, just normal Bama domination of an overmatched foe. Miss St isn't that good. I think they will try to run it a bunch, so the young UK defenders are going to have to step up, which they've shown they can. Ware top 10 SEC tfl and sacks, Allen top 10 in sacks as well, Jones lead SEC in solo tackles, Edwards comes up for run support from DB and is top 10 in pbu as well. Those guys are all Sophs...so at mid year compared to early on they are helping that D.
Think UK can move it by ground and air on Miss St though. Turnovers for UK are the fear, as they are in most games, but seems like a game that a costly INT could end the upset bid. Still, I'd take UK to win. Normally like a little more bang for the buck on MLs, but will definitely play them for a decent chunk with the spread. Maybe ML if it creeps higher (+155 as I type). Kind of a buy on UK and a sell on Miss St. UK off a bye...Miss St hasn't exactly looked great.
Ole Miss is now +260. I'm not scared of line moves. I mean I get scared that Ole Miss D has been bad and LSU O has looked good the last 2 games with the coaching change. But I want to see Tigers do it vs a quality team...even if not a quality D in Ole Miss, Missouri and Southern Miss D just aren't on the same level as what Ole Miss is capable off if they have their A game. Big gut check for Rebels, think they go down with a fight rather than a wimper. Hoping this is a good game, feels like it will be to me. Getting over a TD now at 7.5 is appealing and outright win could be in the cards of course assuming it is a 4 quarter competitive game.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Given that ULL has lost to Tulane, NM St and looked worse than the 0-24 loss to App St showed, yeah, plus they only beat S Bama by 5 and McNeese by 8....ULL is just a bad team. I've bet Tex St twice this year, but honestly I don't know anything about them I just played numbers. With ULL's history and being a bad team this year them losing on the road to another bad team wouldn't be surprising.
UTEP seems popular. I do know that UTSA is a different team at home in that Alamo Dome. Kind of figure that is a closer than 10 pt game with the teams kind of even on talent and all.
Originally I liked Cen Mich, but haven't thought much about it. Perhaps Toledo is slipping just a bit? It's hard to stay hot and keep that edge every week. The BGSU game may be a warning with them? BGSU is improving, so they came to play and play well they did. Certainly think CM could stay in the game, just don't have a feel to put $ on the outright win.
I'll probably have some plays in the morning if I can narrow the list down to the ones I feel best about. I play lots of underdogs, so liking dogs is the easy part, figuring out where to put your money on the upsets is really hard.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
So I'm playing maybe the most ML in one day I ever have. Which may cost me after I left 2 ML winners on the sideline before just taking UConn and UNLV last week. I just couldn't decide, but didn't want potential winners to go unplayed. I just play them for $50 and then go 150 on the spread to hopefully still net 1u if cover but no upset.
Iowa .5u for 87, Vir .5u for 165, TCU .5u for 95, Ark .5u for 165, UK .5u for 80. Strong chance I add Ole Miss and Az St later.
Good luck everyone!
Iowa .5u for 87, Vir .5u for 165, TCU .5u for 95, Ark .5u for 165, UK .5u for 80. Strong chance I add Ole Miss and Az St later.
Good luck everyone!
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Awesome! Get you some Blue Raider love!
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
didn't even take the three tds ... crimety sakes
CHSGTMD
Pretty much a regular
good for you Colt, I was unfortunately on the Mizzou -6 but did offset that with TT over 40
Look forward to sharing ideas about week 9
