WEEK 8 LINE ERRORS VEGAS is MAKING-

Sammy Meatballs

Sammy Meatballs

Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
They have made a few errors in lines here---


The biggest bad line is Tennesse -4 over INDY-------

Vegas has no idea how to cap Indy, they had them cheap vs Baltimore then had them expensive at GBAY and now have them cheap at TENNY-

Manning does well at TENNESEE, and we have the undefeated team which all teams lose a game, and it gets harder to compete when undefeated--

I am shocked this line is -4 as they have went crazy on TENNY here----

This is as public as a play as you will see in this league---

Square A- Buddy lets take Tenny bigtime over Indy on MNF
Sqauare B- yah I know they killed KC bigtime, they were running all day

Square A- Yah lets take them huge, Colts suck they lost big at GBAY
Square B- I know Manning got picked off so many times,

Square A- I know Tenny is undefeated can u believe this buddy
Square B- I know I am hitting all of my accounts and losses and taking TENNY bigtime

This is a square play, INDY does not cover as favorites at home over a TD, and on the road as road chalk---

THe days of the indy covers at home are OVER by double digits, road they are weak and were never good, but as DOGS they will win because physcologically they know they are dogs. It is really taht simple folks, athletes play with a chip on their shoulder when they know they are dogs-


Also I dont see why Washington at -7.5 should not rip apart detroit? dont overanalyze this at all, Detroit sucks, surprised this line is not over 10-

If you buy a point down to 7 points, this is a gimme, wash is fast on offense, detroit is really slow and cannnot handle any motion or tight end plays---

Square A- Detroit is Due
Square B- Yah Wash will look past them and mail tihs in

Square A- I hope detroit can keep within 7
Square B- they can do it, they are at home

All the wrong reasons to take Detroit here----
 
Vegas nailed the Balty game on the head, they are expecting the raiders to score about 10 points, so batyl needs about 17 to cover----

I am thinking that BALTY can win this game, raiders on the road at this number vs a great defensive team is a good bet-------

Only issue with Balty is FLACCO and the offense, we know what the D gives us, if the I can do something, they cover easy.


Indy is in a perfect betting spot as why is TENNY -4?

Your honour there is no evidence to support TENNY -4 points?

Prosecution: They have played cream puff offenses
Kerry Collins
Undefeated teams all lose especially division games
TENNY DB Nick Harper will be abused by Manning, Manning knows Tenny Db's and owns all of them, he owns them its that simple,

Defense: Tenn is 6-0
tenny has an awesome D
Tenny is at home also

As you can see this line should be a pick and TENNY at home is a huge huge huge disadvantage here for them. They would have a shot if this game was in INDY, but they have little shot now that this game is at home-
This is a pivotal game for INDY- TENNY is already 6-0 they can lose one-

So if this is a pivotal game for INDY, would that not mean that this is a game they likely win? MANNING is getting paid millions, so i think he earns his money on this game, no doubts about that-

I really see Indy coming out and dominating a team they already know how to beat as they can beat them through the air---

Remember last year on monday night vs Denver where Brandon Marshall was abusing Tenny Db Cortlin finnigan who is only 5'6 and has very small hands also-- Marshall ran caught the ball and just shook his ass and that threw Finnigan off him every time. Finnigan looked like a midget on the field. Finnigan was the player that BULLOCKS was trying to beat teh shit out of during the game a few weeks back---

This is a bad matchup for TENNY- INDY wins this one as all I needed to see is already there with the -4 line--

We might not see a bigger mismatch in the NFL than wayne and Harrison vs FINNIGAN and Nick harper--

NIck Harper was on the Colts, Manning knows him well, Harper was in the CFL for a while, Finnigan is too small at 5'6 and small hands he cant chuck a receiver, they are protected by the TENNY D line that is rushing opposing QB's. Finnigan is possibly the biggest joke in the league after Marshall looked like he was 19 feet and 800 pounds last year I thought tey wuold cut Finnigan, but no they bring his diminutive ass back. He got burned so bad and started taking flags a few weeks back and Bullocks felt he needed to discipline the little midget and gave him a good push, and then the midget wanted to fight Bullocks, Bullocks was looking to kick his ass some more on the sidelines again-


Where does Vegas come up with this crap? I guess its an early christmas gift for us.
 
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Also believing they are making Carolina cheap at -4.5 vs ZONA who sucks on teh road-

Besides the bye that ZONA had i see no advantages for them-----

WOW carolina made BRees look like a kid, and FOX shuts down immobile stationary QB's

What FOX will do is rush 4 all game like he did last week and warner will hang onto the ball too long and struggle, Carolina takes the Zona run game away and this one is over---

This is a very good team at home in CAROLINA vs a shitty ass road team in ZONA--

ZONA Is crap, they beat Dallas big deal, they allowed FAVRE to score 56 points??

This line could be -7, would not disagree with even -8-----

VEGAS uses their Yag ass power rankings which are way off-----

They have wash -7.5 over Detroit???????????????

I love the TENNY -4 one, that is a classic line over the best QB and receivers in game

now Carolina -4.5 over ZONA? Buy it to 4 and you are sitting really good--

Its getting to become comical this NFl league as it has turned into a league with little talent and obvious outcomes------

Bet on bad teams on the road weekly-----

bet on dogs in divisional games which I am doing with INDY, when the line is a PICK, and they give me 4 free ones
 
nropp11 said:
i actually think indy +4 is a square play.
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Agreed. I think the line is right. The Colts are extremely overrated. I generally hate playing the 'they should be this record' card, but the Colts should honestly be 2-4 or 1-5.

Sammy- You're talking yourself into making a play for the wrong reasons. If you're going to play it, you should at least be right in why you're playing it.You're just wrong about Manning having best games against the Titans. That's not true at all, the Titans have done about as well as anyone has against PM in the last two to three years.

The Titans have competed well against and defeated the Colts with far weaker Titans teams taking on far stronger Colts teams.
Last four matchups
2006 at Indy- Colts win 14-13
2006 at Tenn- Titans win 20-17
2007 at Tenn-Colts win 22-20
2007 at Indy-Titans win 16-10

Cortland Finnegan is now a mismatch against a one dimensional offense? :36_11_6:Do you even watch the games? Finnegan is one of the best corners in the league.

The only reason I see to like Indy(it might be enough to take them) is that this game is essentially their season so they have reason to show up and play their best game. Problem is the Colts aren't healthy and the Titans have five years of frustration ready to be released playing at home.
 
LMAO at one of the best corners in the league going to be a complete mismatch against the Colts wide receivers. Sammy, no offense, but have you even watched the Titans play. Yeah Peyton might have a great game because he is Peyton Manning. However, that has nothing to do with previous Colt-Titan games because neither are even colse to the past teams and Finnegan, Harper, Griffin, and Hope form one of the better secondaries in the NFL. Add in the fact that Bulluck and Thorton are two of the best linebackers at dropping into coverage with the pressure the front four gets you begin to see why the Titans defense is so good and creates so many turnovers. 4 points is right on imo. I'm staying away from this game period.
 
I don't know how Vegas can keep putting up these hundred-million dollar casinos with all these mistakes they are making.
 
Problem is the Colts aren't healthy and the Titans have five years of frustration ready to be released playing at home.

Not to mention on MNF which always seems to add a little extra juice to the home team. I think we are about to watch the end of the Colts season here this Mon night.

Tenny defense is no joke and if Charles Woodson was able to physically take Wayne of his game Sun there is no telling what Tenny will do with their aggressive schemes.
 
The problem on this game what is going to happen is really simple----

Believe nothing you hear and only 50% of what you see---

The last thing in everyones mind is INDY getting beat down by GBAY- Well teams lose and they didnt play their best game last week. But anyone could see that from a mile away as they had nothing to gain from that game at all. Meaning they were done before the game there. THey scored on their first drive, and i said to my brother Colts will not score again this game, They didnt until a garbage td at the end of the game--

Why does anyone think underdogs always win in the playoffs? Giants last year, Rays out of nowwhere this season to take out Red SOX, Dodgers to beat Cubs? Why is it that every double digit Superbowl Underdog has won the game outright? WHy is that many 20+ college football dogs win outright also?

I know a former pro NFl player and also CFL players, the 2 leagues are different but what I was told by one player is that it is as simple as when a team is a UNDERDOG they play way way way better and win the game because its all mental to them--

Ex- Would be the Steelers vs the Jags a few weeks ago---

Now this applies to good teams that I am talking about, when everyone starts writing them off after a bad game-- Avg to weak teams dont count because they are not good to start with and have other problems--

Indy beat the Vikings, Ravens, Texans, they have lost to Bears, Packers and someone else but they played all good teams and had no easy teams at all-


This is exactly how Vegas gets rich over and over, they convince people that certain teams are better. I can guarantee you in the NFL that home field means little to nothing when divisional teams that are both good teams play each other-

This game is as simple as people having Believed 100% of what they saw last week on TENNY and from their firs 6 weeks. It is also people believeing 100% of the COlts loss to the Packers last week, which they had no chance to win because they were favored and the public was all over them making them the favorite-----

In life everyone wants to be underestimated--Most of the great great rich and successfull people were underestimated and achieved greatness. INDY Is being underestimated, vs the Packers it was the Packers that were being underestimated-

The Tenny Db's are the worst in the NFL at coverage trust me on this one, no 5'6 db's can stop receivers in tihs league. Last year haynesworth and one other Dlineman was injured and TENNY was exposed for what they are. Finnigan looked like a guy riding a bull as Marshall caught the balll and did this hip check move and send Finnigan flying out of bounds every time. I have never seen a NFl receiver shake his hip and send the DB flying time and time again.

Tenny is all scheme and I did not expect for BRODY CROYLE, Bengals, JOE FLACCO, and the other creme puff QB's they played to move it on any teams--

Also Tenny is going to lose some games this year, and this is a good one for them to lose because they have nothing to gain.

TEnny will lose for the same reasons that the college teams are not going undefeated anymore, PARITY-- when i ahve the best QB in the game, best receivers , best tight end going vs midget db's and NICK Harper a former COLT-- The last former Colt jason David who went to New ORleans was targeted and burned so bad by Wayne. Colts are smart they will attack them bigtime.

If the Colts had the Tenny schedule and TEnny had the COlts schedule, their records would be reversed and this line would be COLTS -3---

To summarize the point perhaps our Super bowl champs are the EX--

this is a team that plain and simply was not good at home, they were avg and lost some games at home last year--- WHen they hit the road it is all mental to this team. They are a good team and have the right approach mentally on the road. Other good teams also in sports also have the same approach----

If a team is good they will win on the road it does not matter--

Home field advantage only has an advantage in this leauge vs certain teams that have a Physcological mental problem with playing on the road like Denver and Arizona-- However you will always notice that the same teams that are only good at home and not on the road are never great teams-

Any really good team has to win games on the road--
 
Need to check the injuries if Addai and sanders and hayden are all back that is HUGE-

What we have is then 3 more millionaries who are going to earn their money-----

Dont fall into the TENNY trap, great team as a DOG when they are underestimated, but they did not play 1 good team even this year. The best D they played they scored 13 points, they played some of the worst Defenses in this league--

WIth all the Indy players playing hopefully I have all the Indy millionaires playing and they will earn their paycheques, its really that simple, because they will not take this game lightly, this is their superbowl.
Does anyone really think any of the TENNY players are thinking wow I have to earn my paycheque this week? Thats what happens in this league, if you dont earn your cheque in back to back weeks your season is over, also if you continue to do it, you will be cut or your career goes downhill ex carson Palmer--

THis game has been played already 1000 times over and over. I can pretty much just take a nap and already dream of exactly how this game is going to go---

Tenny is the type of team to win games, they dont care about scores, when this game is even lets say tied at half, TENNY is going for the 3 point win at any point in the 4th qtr. they dont bury good teams, and this is simple to cover a -4 you have to do what the Pats did and score and bury teams--

Tenny can bury shit ass team-----

The best matchup Tenny had was at Baltimore as I feel that was the best team tehy played- They won 13-10 and were lucky to do that- I give them the win even though Ravens had the game--

That right there shows me how good this team is-- Erase the records from week 1 to week 7, and you can see the easy winner here. If you dont erase the records you will fall into the Great TENNY TRAP- they are not a good team, they are looking good because they played no one--

If I was the schedule maker I could turn a team like Arizona or the Bills into a 16-0 team if I scheduled the right teams on the schedule--

Its all schedule and by making these lines its really simple to me, TENNy is not going 16-0 they are not that good, and a loss will surely come at home for sure-----

How do I know they are not going 16-0? Becaues unliek the Pats they dont score enough and win a lot of close games- They could care less of the score-
 
Sammy I'm not saying the Colts are the wrong side, but I've watched every Titans game for the past 3 or 4 years and you obviously haven't watched this team a whole lot. I'm not worried about the public or any of that. I'm just breaking down the game from a pure football statistical, situational standpoint. The biggest mismatches in this is not the Titans very good secondary against the Colts WR's. The biggest mismatch is the Titans fronts against the Colts. That being said this is a must win for Indianapolis, but even that is offset a little bit by this being the Titans first MNF home game in a long time. Basically we will agree to disagree. I think the line is spot on. The Titans are a solid playoff type team, the Colts are not. Doesn't mean Indy doesn't win the biggest game of the year for them, but you are not looking at Indy for any of the right reasons imo.
 
Orange and white you are a smart man and I believe you know the titans and agree they are a solid playoff team---

Its more of a bad spot for them, but I need my indy team to ahve SANDERS back he is the MVP of hte team, tehy won the superbowl with his D back there--

You have the right approach, I used to take that approach but honestly felt at certain times that I find in the NFL more things that change, the more things that stay the same---

Meaning the shit teams get killed weeek in week out, however no one posts vs the cellar dwellar teams, because they over analyze it..
 
if vegas is making these errors, then wouldnt they be adjusting these lines?

sharp bettors sit and wait for openers, and then pound the lines they think are "soft" or "erroneous", if u will

vegas acts accordingly, and if a shit-ton of money is coming in one side theyll move the line

colts game actually opened at -3 in a couple vegas sportsbooks but get bet up to -4 REAL QUICK.... which is actually the opposite of what youre saying.

WASHINGTON you may be right on, i think this one falls on 9-9.5 only because theyre going to want to give themselves at least some small window to win on teasers.... 7.5 doenst give them shit because you get -1 on a 6.5 pt teaser
 
Sammy-The Titans are going to get their bad spot soon enough on the road at either Chicago or Jax in b2b games. I think it's far more likely they''ll be flat for one of those games than a game against Indy at home. I've had the Chicago game circled as the likely first loss for a while.
 
MusicCityGambler said:
Sammy-The Titans are going to get their bad spot soon enough on the road at either Chicago or Jax in b2b games. I think it's far more likely they''ll be flat for one of those games than a game against Indy at home. I've had the Chicago game circled as the likely first loss for a while.
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Totally agree. If think the Titans could actually lose both those games if both of them are close to healthy by then.
 
I will have to check to see the status of free safety Robert Sanders---

He is the key to the D---

Also the O line for Indy has to be strong cause if not vs Haynesworth it may be tough on Peyton to dominate as he usually owns the smallish tennesse Db's.
 
nropp11 said:
i actually think indy +4 is a square play.
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Both Washington and Indy are "Square" plays. Not saying they won't or didn't cover.. but Detroit deserved the cover and Manning getting points will always be a public play...

I don't know any square, and I know a few casual bettors, who thought Detroit is "Due".
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
They have made a few errors in lines here---


The biggest bad line is Tennesse -4 over INDY-------

Vegas has no idea how to cap Indy, they had them cheap vs Baltimore then had them expensive at GBAY and now have them cheap at TENNY-

Manning does well at TENNESEE, and we have the undefeated team which all teams lose a game, and it gets harder to compete when undefeated--

I am shocked this line is -4 as they have went crazy on TENNY here----

This is as public as a play as you will see in this league---

Square A- Buddy lets take Tenny bigtime over Indy on MNF
Sqauare B- yah I know they killed KC bigtime, they were running all day

Square A- Yah lets take them huge, Colts suck they lost big at GBAY
Square B- I know Manning got picked off so many times,

Square A- I know Tenny is undefeated can u believe this buddy
Square B- I know I am hitting all of my accounts and losses and taking TENNY bigtime

This is a square play, INDY does not cover as favorites at home over a TD, and on the road as road chalk---

THe days of the indy covers at home are OVER by double digits, road they are weak and were never good, but as DOGS they will win because physcologically they know they are dogs. It is really taht simple folks, athletes play with a chip on their shoulder when they know they are dogs-


Also I dont see why Washington at -7.5 should not rip apart detroit? dont overanalyze this at all, Detroit sucks, surprised this line is not over 10-

If you buy a point down to 7 points, this is a gimme, wash is fast on offense, detroit is really slow and cannnot handle any motion or tight end plays---

Square A- Detroit is Due
Square B- Yah Wash will look past them and mail tihs in

Square A- I hope detroit can keep within 7
Square B- they can do it, they are at home

All the wrong reasons to take Detroit here----
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you left out other squares who were discussing about how Indy getting points is a gift or Indy and Peyton's backs are against the wall in a must win game for them to have any chance in the division.

No offense but since when does a team giving points to Indy is a square play.
 
SQUARES dont bet UNDERDOGS----

Squares always take the favorite because they think they are betting the better team--

Perfect square play is a -3 road favorite, where it seems the road team is dominant but in reality they lose--

Ex- Nevada -3.5 over Hawaii and South Florida over Louisville -3.5---

They look easy and we all fall for them but they are square plays--

Tonights game when everyone thinks indy cannot do this or cannot do that, they do the unexpected, after all if they cant run, why are they playing this game??

They are playing it because in reality no one knows what will happen tonight--

Tenny is in a super bad situational spot here- Tenny looks strong but played no one, thinking Indy will win this if BoB Sanders is playing.
 
I show only 52% on Tenny, which is very low for a favorite.

Forgetting all of the "square" talk for a minute....the problem that I would have backing the Colts is that Indy rushes for only 70 yards a game! Last in the NFL. Playing on the road against a top notch D and not being able to rush the ball does not sound like a good combo.

Indy on the other hand gives up OVER 150 yards a game on the ground. Sanders is OUT tonight.

People are still seeing Indy as the 12-4 division winner that they've been for the past 5 years or so.

I pegged Indy for 8-8 this year, so their start isn't really surprising, but they could easily be 1-5 this year if not for major collapses by Minny and Hou.

If you took the names of the jerseys tonight and were making a line and it was 6-0 best D and running game in the league, versus 3-3 w/ best D player out, worst run O and run D in the league you'd be saying -4 is a bargain.
 
aplous said:
I show only 52% on Tenny, which is very low for a favorite.

Forgetting all of the "square" talk for a minute....the problem that I would have backing the Colts is that Indy rushes for only 70 yards a game! Last in the NFL. Playing on the road against a top notch D and not being able to rush the ball does not sound like a good combo.

Indy on the other hand gives up OVER 150 yards a game on the ground. Sanders is OUT tonight.

People are still seeing Indy as the 12-4 division winner that they've been for the past 5 years or so.

I pegged Indy for 8-8 this year, so their start isn't really surprising, but they could easily be 1-5 this year if not for major collapses by Minny and Hou.

If you took the names of the jerseys tonight and were making a line and it was 6-0 best D and running game in the league, versus 3-3 w/ best D player out, worst run O and run D in the league you'd be saying -4 is a bargain.
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Great point, Aplous. I believe Tenn is the play. :shake:

I still love ya, Sammy. :cheers:
 
I keep hearing Tenny is in a bad spot situationally - this to me is one of my favorite spots for any team to be in - when they feel like they are being slighted and with something to prove - which is exactly what the Titans have been quoted as saying.
 
aplous said:
I show only 52% on Tenny, which is very low for a favorite.

Forgetting all of the "square" talk for a minute....the problem that I would have backing the Colts is that Indy rushes for only 70 yards a game! Last in the NFL. Playing on the road against a top notch D and not being able to rush the ball does not sound like a good combo.

Indy on the other hand gives up OVER 150 yards a game on the ground. Sanders is OUT tonight.

People are still seeing Indy as the 12-4 division winner that they've been for the past 5 years or so.

I pegged Indy for 8-8 this year, so their start isn't really surprising, but they could easily be 1-5 this year if not for major collapses by Minny and Hou.

If you took the names of the jerseys tonight and were making a line and it was 6-0 best D and running game in the league, versus 3-3 w/ best D player out, worst run O and run D in the league you'd be saying -4 is a bargain.
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Its pretty true what you are saying my friend---

BUt allow me to clarify a few minor issues--

No HAYDEN and No SANDERS hurts the COlts, this is the biggest worry I have in the Colts, with sanders he can stop the run by himself---- Hayden is not that bad because Titans cannot throw---

It is true Indy could be 1-5 this year, that is a FACT also--

However looking at a team saying it is 6-0 with best D is not correct, the best D can be determined at the end of the season, not 6 games through the season- In this case saying tennesee is the best D or team is like saying Hawaii rainbows are the best team in college after 6 games---

Remember believe nothing you hear and only 50% of what you see, no one can make a blanket comment like COLTS have NO RUNNING GAME? If that were the case their stats would be 0 yards rushing a game? This is what happens everyone has tunnel vision and only sees a game going one way, and that is why when everyone loads up on a side it always loses-----

The Tennesse D is very good vs the Run I agree, but they are possibly the worst unit in the NFl athletically vs the pass. Manning knows this, and I think the Colts can throw all day on Tennesse--

Reason- Monday night the Db's are at a severe disadvantage: Here is what happens. The entire league is watching, the rules favor the offense, the receivers are so big and so fast these days. Average Db's simply have not shot at stopping great receivers on prime time monday nighters. Now everyone knows why monday nights fly over the total and star receivers go nuts on monday night-- The receivers just want that ball 100 Times more than a regular sunday game, because they have all the spotlight and its time to make some plays- In this game Indy has the real advantage there-

In the second halves of games, the receivers run harder,try harder and teh Db's are praying that they dont get burnt on national TV, what results is holding and interference penalties just like New Orleans took late vs Minny holding Berrian on that deep pass-- Just like Denver Db's were scared and embarassed last week--

The Titans DB's will be abused and shown for what they are. Expect Reginald Wayne to go off tonight, Tony Gonzalez will also run some great patterns and Dallas Clark will catch some, i even expect Harrison to catch a nice fly pattern Td on Tennesse-

With this in mind this is why Indy will torch the Titans secondary tonight.

Titans cannot cover, it will be shown, i watched the game vs Tenny vs the Ravens, and even the Tenny announcers were screaming at their Db's and saying they suck and are making Flacco look like Joe Montana out there- They cannot cover pass, they are being hidden by the Titans front 4 ability to rush the passer and play mickey mouse offenses-

Indy stops the Titans run, they win this game easy.

You will hear the 2 names a lot tonight-- Nick Harper and Cortlin Finnigan the 2 tennesse db's that are smallish and cannot cover.
 
How can you say this:

Remember believe nothing you hear and only 50% of what you see, no one can make a blanket comment like COLTS have NO RUNNING GAME? If that were the case their stats would be 0 yards rushing a game? This is what happens everyone has tunnel vision and only sees a game going one way, and that is why when everyone loads up on a side it always loses

when you say this:

No HAYDEN and No SANDERS hurts the COlts, this is the biggest worry I have in the Colts, with sanders he can stop the run by himself---- Hayden is not that bad because Titans cannot throw---

Tony gonzalez is in KC
 
SF capper Tony Gonzalez is on the Colts, he is a receiver from ohio state--3rd year--

Also of course the Titans can throw, but they are not a team that is a throw first team, meaning they cannot take advantage of a Db out for Indy---

Both teams are good teams, but it comes down to how these teams matchup and little Cortlin Finnigan and former CFL Db Nick Harper are in for a shock as they face some potent wide receivers-- The receivers will just outwill them and want the ball way more--
This game is like last year when the Colts went into JAgs and won on Monday night and shocked the world, dont go on perceived reputation---

This line should be Titans -2.5 but is -4 because of the 6-0 record and the bad performance by Indy last week---

Perfect though Indy bounces back tonight and tenny gets exposed on Defense- after all this unit is not good vs the pass-

Also this game has CGS written all over it-- CGS=Close game syndrome--

And jeff Fisher does not care about covering, if it is close he will instruct the offense to get the 3 point win and get out of town if it ever came back to that, meaning he attempts no late field goals and deep shots and works on the clock--

THe -4 spread is what is wrong, because no one can really cap a game and say yah Tenny is better and will win the game--

In reality as I said Colts are given a free TD , a free 7 points for being underdogs tonight.

The correct line here is COLTS -3-- no doubts about that, they will win this game outright--

The reason why the line is Colts -3 and not Titans -4 is this reasoning-

When athletes show up to the field and know they are DOGS at +4 and the world is counting them out, some of them quit, but the good athletes prepare harder, eat better, run harder, train harder, are focussed way more, and have a chip on their shoudler
The Colts have the biggest edge in this game which is worth a TD at least- The underdog mentality advantage.

When the Colts players know they are Underdogs it is worth 7 points IMO-- Just like the Giants were underdogs yesterday teams take it personally--- Athletes when they are DOGS play better and looser and show to the world what's up--

THis is why the real line is COlts -3 not Titans -4-
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Proof- The G men were pissed off yesterday about the talk that Steelers were better than them on D- the D coordinator was hitting players and firing them up and going crazy on the sidelines-- Oh and by the way the GMEN won, wonder if it had to do with being a DOG, yes it did, that is why they lost in Cleveland, because they already lost that game in their minds--

SO what happens is the Colts tonight come to field like they are in a WAR, and ready to complete a MISSION--

It is really that simple in the NFL----- So this in my eyes is worth 7 points at least--

So you have the real line is Colts -3----- NOt titans -4---

This is very similar to everyone counting out the Pats early on in the year and Dallas yesterday also-- What happens is they find a way to WIN--

You cannot count the importance of Desperation and Motivation--

Vegas has pulled a quick one on everyone tonight, making them believe the Titans -4 is a good bet, when in reality the COlts are taking this game personally-

You get a free Td with the Colts being DOGS-- It is that simple athletes respond to this underdog theme and it makes them play different.

A perfect example of this is PIttsburgh, they usually win everytime on the road when they are DOGS< they win outright also-
 
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Thru 6 games Tennessee has the best run D in the league. Maybe it will be different after 16 games, but during the year we have to use the facts that we have and those clearly show:

Indy run O= 70 ypg
Tenny run D= 89 ypg

Indy run D= 153 ypg
Tenny run O= 153 ypg


Now if Indy does get up early and forces Collins to beat them thru the air they could be in trouble. And it is always nice to be getting more than 3 in what could be a low scoring game. Manning might be able to pick apart this secondary, but not if they dont have to respect the run...Tenny front 4 can stop the Indy run game.

IMO Manning has been turnover prone like crazy this year (3 pick 6 already)....and I love a team with a running advantage and a D advantage (see NYG/Pitt)...I think Tenny plays a statement game here and wins by DD.
 
You will see a precision passing clinic by manning today---

Tenny is also a good team when DOGS, but when they are favorites they will not handle this well at all----

They can pretend to try and show the world, but they cannot, as they are favored by 4 points, they all know the spread and who is favored---

I expect the Colts D to pick of Collins twice tonight and for them to stop the RUN tonight---

REginald Wayne is going to abuse Harper or Finnigand and the great Marv Harrison should reach the end zone on a long bomb--

This is what I need, the best football player in the world in Peyton with precion timing with his wideouts getting 4 points----

Also last week they got picked twice in the end zone, so they were moving it well just got unlucky, shit happens--

I am loving this Colts play
 
aplous said:
Thru 6 games Tennessee has the best run D in the league. Maybe it will be different after 16 games, but during the year we have to use the facts that we have and those clearly show:

Indy run O= 70 ypg
Tenny run D= 89 ypg

Indy run D= 153 ypg
Tenny run O= 153 ypg


Now if Indy does get up early and forces Collins to beat them thru the air they could be in trouble. And it is always nice to be getting more than 3 in what could be a low scoring game. Manning might be able to pick apart this secondary, but not if they dont have to respect the run...Tenny front 4 can stop the Indy run game.

IMO Manning has been turnover prone like crazy this year (3 pick 6 already)....and I love a team with a running advantage and a D advantage (see NYG/Pitt)...I think Tenny plays a statement game here and wins by DD.
Click to expand...


I agree with you, I love a running team and D advantage also, when they are DOGS-- teams like Tenny simply are not favorites vs Public teams--

tenny is not flashy at all, and they are -4?? This is cause of the 6-0 record-

Tenny is money as a DOG, but being a favorite is the worst news to them, I mean they have nothing to gain here-- There will be no statement here my friend, Jeff Fisher is conservative he plays things close to the vest--

Also I mean they ran the score up on really weak teams so far this year-

Tenny has not played any power teams, this is the first team they play that can pick them apart through the air-

Tenny is a good team, but a terrible betting team- they really are overrated bigtime -
 
Sammy... Manning is in trouble this season because of injury and a depleted O'line and no running game. There is even question about Harrison's performance this year. The Colts are in a similar situation, that the Browns were in, the first 4 weeks of the season as well. A QB injured with no playing time, offensive starters out and a defense that had 4 key players missing.

As far as the Titans being a bad favorite? They opened the season as a dog to J'ville and won SU.

After that - they were favored 5 times and covered all five.

Tonight its number 6 in a row that they are favored and its against a team that had the similar scoring numbers last year that the Titans had. (Just about even scoring for and against LY.)

This year its the Titans with "Colts type" numbers on the scoreboard and rightfully so that they are favored tonight.

My gut feeling is, if Indy was laying the 4, you'd be all over the Titans tonight. And if so, the Titans would win SU. Probably by more than 7. :shake:
 
I agree with you, I love a running team and D advantage also, when they are DOGS-- teams like Tenny simply are not favorites vs Public teams--

tenny is not flashy at all, and they are -4?? This is cause of the 6-0 record-

Tenny is money as a DOG, but being a favorite is the worst news to them, I mean they have nothing to gain here-- There will be no statement here my friend, Jeff Fisher is conservative he plays things close to the vest--

Also I mean they ran the score up on really weak teams so far this year-

Tenny has not played any power teams, this is the first team they play that can pick them apart through the air-

Tenny is a good team, but a terrible betting team- they really are overrated bigtime -

Respectfully disagree with you here Sammy; take a look at the Titans ATS record THIS year...most of them as favorites as G-Man mentions. Typically, Manning would pick apart just about any secondary...with his full allotment of players around him. He doesn't perform well with pressure up the middle because he doesn't like to move outside the pocket too much...think Titans have a large advantage DT vs the interior of the Colts line. Also, S Sanders is still out for the Colts and he is considered my many the best defensive player in the league or at least the most valuable to his particular team.

Also disagree with the Titans having nothing to prove; playing the 5 time defending division champs at home on MNF??? Lots of payback here for the BETTER and HEALTHIER team. Both teams will be very motivated in my opinion.

Good luck with your play.<!-- / message -->
 
Sammy,

With Indy torching the Tenn defence not a concern for you but there being some uncertainty as to whether Indy can stop Tenn's run game, why not take the latter out of the equation AND JUST TAKE the Indy team total over. I think I saw it at 18.5. If Indy doesn't get over that, their chances of covering decrease quite a bit but if they do get over it, you still get the win even if they lose by more than 4 like 27-20.

Food for thought.
 
may be a tough call eaither way. I look at it like this and have played it this way....

titans -3 first half at plus 105. the game is -4 and the half is 3? i will bite on tenny. so far this year the colts have been flat in the first half and usually lights out in the 2nd half, especially the 4th quarter.

colts +4 for the game. maybe a possibe 2nd half play as well, especially if the first half hits. indy has been solid in 2nd half and have underachieved in the first half.

to me, this looks like the best opportunities. Whenever i post a play i get fucked, so i have prolly screwed myself, lol.

eitherway, i'd like to hear thoughts.
 
horses said:
I agree with you, I love a running team and D advantage also, when they are DOGS-- teams like Tenny simply are not favorites vs Public teams--

tenny is not flashy at all, and they are -4?? This is cause of the 6-0 record-

Tenny is money as a DOG, but being a favorite is the worst news to them, I mean they have nothing to gain here-- There will be no statement here my friend, Jeff Fisher is conservative he plays things close to the vest--

Also I mean they ran the score up on really weak teams so far this year-

Tenny has not played any power teams, this is the first team they play that can pick them apart through the air-

Tenny is a good team, but a terrible betting team- they really are overrated bigtime -

Respectfully disagree with you here Sammy; take a look at the Titans ATS record THIS year...most of them as favorites as G-Man mentions. Typically, Manning would pick apart just about any secondary...with his full allotment of players around him. He doesn't perform well with pressure up the middle because he doesn't like to move outside the pocket too much...think Titans have a large advantage DT vs the interior of the Colts line. Also, S Sanders is still out for the Colts and he is considered my many the best defensive player in the league or at least the most valuable to his particular team.

Also disagree with the Titans having nothing to prove; playing the 5 time defending division champs at home on MNF??? Lots of payback here for the BETTER and HEALTHIER team. Both teams will be very motivated in my opinion.

Good luck with your play.<!-- / message -->
Click to expand...

Horses I agree 100% with what u say it makes so much sense, probably too much sense, if that makes sense?

You are right about everything you say, except what I found was really simple of late, when you cap games less and take more underdogs when 2 good teams play, you collect weekly off the bookie. Reason is if you cap like you said with matchups it will always steer you to the favorite. I stopped capping games and looking for DOGS more, and started to win a lot more--- I like taking good teams as DOGS and favorites when they are at home playing a lame duck road team, but in these types of spots the result is usually the same and I wont get tricked into TENNY-

good post though-- Also for what everyone is thinking will happen it is these types of games where the TENNY D Line has a ROAD RUSH- meaning no rush and just takes it easy and gets dominated by the Indy O line--

One fact I know when everyone is very sure that the Tenny D line will dominate the Indy O line, the opposite will happen, and everyone thinking the INdy D will not stop the run, the opposite will happen again--

VEGAS is a billion dollar industry because they win more than they lose, and when everyone is thinking what will happen it loses, if it did not we would see Vegas Casinos and offshores declaring bankrupcy-

Athletes are paid millions, it is hard to motivate these players to play sometimes- ex vince young----

Athletes look for anything to motivate themselves- A scenario where Tennesse would do well tonight is if they were +4 at home, they would be preparing differently and Indy would be confident and not really prepare because they have already won because they are -4 and everyone thinks they are better anyway-

Playing with a chip on their shoulders is very dangerous-

Mark this one down, Indy beats Tenny tonight because they are underdogs and it is burning them up inside their hearts.
 
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