***Week 8 Lex***

I know I know another big name wr with a high number to cover. But just like heavy faves you can win if selective. While I sidestepped Zay in favor of Bateman's lower # for MNF I cannot do the same here. Could easily make a case for Nailor or Addison but give me the best WR in football on a nationally televised game off a loss.

He was held under the # week one,but still had a 44 yd rec

SF- 4-133-1 97 yd rec.

Hous- 6-81-1 28 yd rec

GB- 6-85-1 27 yd rec

Jets- 6-92 with a 27 yd rec

Det 7-81-1 with a 26 yd rec.


So he's over the 26.5 longest rec every game but 1 and over yd 3 of 5. These were against much better secondaries than the Rams. Some notable numbers vs Rams this season

Jameson 5-121-1 52 yd catch

Harrison jr 4-130-2 long rec was 60yds

Jennings 11-175-3 34 yd catch

Jayden reed had a 53 yd catch

So that's my favorite prop for thursday, if Kuppwas healthy I'd be on his yds over as there are solid numbers to support that but I (may) be more selective this week
 
Lexington 125 said:
I know I know another big name wr with a high number to cover. But just like heavy faves you can win if selective. While I sidestepped Zay in favor of Bateman's lower # for MNF I cannot do the same here. Could easily make a case for Nailor or Addison but give me the best WR in football on a nationally televised game off a loss.

He was held under the # week one,but still had a 44 yd rec

SF- 4-133-1 97 yd rec.

Hous- 6-81-1 28 yd rec

GB- 6-85-1 27 yd rec

Jets- 6-92 with a 27 yd rec

Det 7-81-1 with a 26 yd rec.


So he's over the 26.5 longest rec every game but 1 and over yd 3 of 5. These were against much better secondaries than the Rams. Some notable numbers vs Rams this season

Jameson 5-121-1 52 yd catch

Harrison jr 4-130-2 long rec was 60yds

Jennings 11-175-3 34 yd catch

Jayden reed had a 53 yd catch

So that's my favorite prop for thursday, if Kuppwas healthy I'd be on his yds over as there are solid numbers to support that but I (may) be more selective this week
Click to expand...
Great analysis here.
 
Edited in Vikings first half. I expect them to come out firing so 2 tds 1sth very doable. If not we can still hit with 7 and 2 fgs yes please
 
Hockenson if playing makes this a bit more interesting. I slammed some of him at ov 26.5 hoping he right, te’s have bloated the rams all year. Played Addison also as kinda a just in case Hockenson isn’t really himself. Can’t ever really argue w playing JJ
 
2daBank said:
Hockenson if playing makes this a bit more interesting. I slammed some of him at ov 26.5 hoping he right, te’s have bloated the rams all year. Played Addison also as kinda a just in case Hockenson isn’t really himself. Can’t ever really argue w playing JJ
Click to expand...
For the Rams to pull this game out, it will be containing JJ and that would take a complete turnaround by these DBs or a shit show by Darnold.
 
@wiseplayer my thoughts exactly.

I was big on brock bowers yds over last week because he’s the only real target for the raiders.


Using the same reasoning from last week w Amon ra vs Vikings I think kupp yds over the only rams play I’m considering
 
Lexington 125 said:
@wiseplayer my thoughts exactly.

I was big on brock bowers yds over last week because he’s the only real target for the raiders.


Using the same reasoning from last week w Amon ra vs Vikings I think kupp yds over the only rams play I’m considering
Click to expand...
Marvin Harrison had a breakout game and Bowers was open all day.
Here’s what I know about this Rams team by watching every down. Their oline and dline are incompetent. Oline can’t figure out simple stunts of blitzes. Vikings love to blitz. Rams dline over pursues on the edges basically biting on every misdirection. Vikings HC was our SB OC and is very creative.
It’s going to take a comedy of errors by the Vikings to lose this game. I repeat, the Rams need their 2 olinemen back before they improve.
 
ok I can't get away from the stats for Kupp.

Kupp rec yds o67.5-115

Vikings/Rams 1sth o23.5-103

2 units each


Kupp o64.5/ TD +255

JJeff o84.5/ TD +195

1 unit each




+1700

JJeff rec o109.5/ TD
Kupp rec o84.5/TD

half unit
 
James cook rush yds o61.5-113

4 units

Jamar Chase longest rec o25.5-121

Jonathan Taylor rush yds o69.5-103

3 units each


Zack Moss rec yds o15.5

Ray Davis rush yds o20.5-115

Kincaid rec yds o40.5-118

Marvin Harrison jr.rec yds o46.5-117

JK Dobbins rush yds o75.5-113

2 units each


Pitts rec yds o54.5/ TD +475

LaPorta rec yds o54.5/ TD +650

1 unit each


My favorite sunday prop is Cook. I'm continuing the fade of the Hawks run D. Not going to repost all the stats but just look at what rbs have done vs the Hawks. I'm sure Allen rushing yards & cooper props may be popular but the Bills are a running football team. Cooper added in only helps the run game!

Cook was eased back in last week with 12 carries but I'd imagine this game plan will be a bunch of runs. His carries are set at a juiced o13.5-130. I would put his carries at 13-16 so again all it takes is that one big run for Cook to coast over the #. Ray number is a must play as again he could get there with 3-5 carries which he's def going to get. He will get featured in a series or two.

Kincaid number likely staying low because of his injury- he practiced in non contact jersey all week (collarbone). Again I think he benefits from Coop and is always capable of a 20+ yd catch to make it an easy prop winner. I said I was riding Kincaid yds over and it's hit every week since- collarbone isn't going to stop me from playing it.

Allen rush yds could easily cash but i tend to think this is a game where the Bills showcase the run game. Looking like Samuel won't go (who cares) but the big one is Mack Hollins. He's been limited all week but should go- it's bigger than most would think because he is an excellent run blocker- still think Cook gets there without Hollins but would def like him to play. May even add in a Cook longest rush prop.
 
Last edited:
Edited in the rest of my players props.

Bengals 1sth tt o12.5-121

Jets 1sth tt o12.5-124

Lions tt o27.5-121

Bucs tt o21.5-114

Ravens ML/ Packers ML/ Jets ML (+150)

3 units each



+3115

Chase o79.5/TD
Tyreek o79.5/TD
Davante o57.5/TD

1 unit


+4350

Zach Moss rec o15.5
Chase rec o74.5/TD
LaPorta rec yds o29.5
Pitts rec o39.5
Achane rush yds o44.5
Tyreek rec yds o69.5
Breece Hall TD

half unit
 
Some more reasoning

Another star player prop with Jamar Chase but I can't ignore the numbers.

Chase longest rec by game

18@Clev
33@NYG
70 vs Bal
63@Car
41 vs Wash
13@ chiefs
28@NE

ok so Browns and Chiefs held him under the number...

Eagles longest passes allowed this season

GB- Reed 70,Kraft 29
ATL- Mooney 41
NO- Olave 29, Kamara 27
TB- Evans 21, Godwin 29, Shepard 30
Browns- Jeudy 35
Giants- nabers 14

Another seemingly high number but all it takes is one mistake by the Eagles secondary and Chase is gone. Heavy on the Bengals a bunch of ways which is scary but I'm trying to zero in on a couple matchups.... researching the Chase play led me to the Zack moss rec yds.... he'll be seeing time in 3rd down situations and the Eagles have given up a ton of yards to rbs out of the backfield. Like every game there's a long rb catch so hopefully it goes to Moss and not Brown.



Regarding Cards/Miami at first I thought about the Cards as a live dog but the more I look/think about it I am not fading the Fins in Tua's first game back. Have to think Tyreek finds a long td pass and think Achane yds prop crushes. Didn't play as I'm trying to only have 2 players max in a single game and Harrison jr yds prop much lower when I expect 7+ targets. Side note I see a couple good cappers on the under here but I hate it! Layingoffbutmay jumpin at half totals wise.....

I have sometime this morning and all my bets are in....

If anyone wants reasoning for a certain wager I'm here

GL everyone!
 
Bills thoughts

Buffalo going to seattle and it's their 4th roadie in 5 games, off a blowout win and with divisional rivals Miami on deck. Not the best situation in general to lay chalk. However, I think Seattle's weaknesses are the Bill's strengths. Buffalo will be without Bernard which hurts. They lost dl Carter for the year who was playing well. Von Miller is still suspended so d line not fully in tact. The good news is they are pretty deep & Smoot is off the injury report. Rousseau & Epinesa should both be able to get pressure on Geno. Taron is good to go and should be huge in helping slow down Kenny Walker. Bills with a fully healthy secondary and looking like DK won't go which is HUGE. Hawks still have good wrs but DK and big wrs in general are more of a problem for the Bills. Bills D will always be bend but don't break, I think we see the Bills really sell out to stop the run here. If Walker can't get going the Bills will coast.

Offensively again the Bills are a run team. I think today will be a very run heavy playbook especially with Davis showing how good he can be. Seattle gets back Woolen so secondary is much improved with him in. Game 2 with Cooper in I can't wait to see what Buffalo does. Mack will still see time and is off the injury report as well- great news for the run game as he is as solid as they come run blocking. Samuel out is a non factor and honestly I think that experiment is already over.

I look for the Bills to run the ball and open up some passing lanes. Would be more inclined to think they look to Kincaid and Shakir in this one. Allen rushing yards may be enticing but if the run game is going as planned he might not have more than 4 designed runs. Davis TD prop I would think is live but I'm invested in Cook yds the most....

I think the Bills win & cover- because I can see both teams running the ball I don't love the over. Another thing to consider is how well Buffalo has been at 2nd half adjustments. The defense has been very good second half all season. I could see Seattle coming out playing much better 1sth so I will be looking for the opportunity of playing Buffalo 2ndh it lookslikeit makes sense.
 
My apologies if my analysis on Thursday caused some losses. Never thought for a minute Puka returning would galvanize this entire team while still having 2 rookies on this oline. GL today
 
wiseplayer said:
My apologies if my analysis on Thursday caused some losses. Never thought for a minute Puka returning would galvanize this entire team while still having 2 rookies on this oline. GL today
Click to expand...
No apologies! I ended up + for the night and your analysis that Jefferson wouldn't be stopped made me more confident in the prop!

Puka is a beast!
 
bulldogs said:
Good write up. I really like the over 45. seattle hasnt stopped anyone.
Click to expand...
I like the Bills-3 more than game over. Important to note K still shaky and it's raining. Bills are good for 3tds will they get the fg or 4th td?

Sea D will likely look better than the last couple outings but still not enough to notplay against them
 
49ers-3.5-103 1sth

49ers tt o13.5-120 1sth

Lamb rec yds o77.5

Lamb td+106

Kittles rec yds o54.5

Dak tds o1.5+115

2 units each


Pearsall td+175

1 unit
 
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