Aztec4Life
Montezuma Mesa Survivor
YTD NCAAF Sides: 46-40-3 [+1.0 Units]
YTD NCAAF M/L Plays: 3-5 [-0.3 Units]
YTD NCAAF Totals: 1-0 [+1.0 Units]
YTD NCAAF Overall: +1.7 Units
Week 8 Card
Pittsburgh -6 [2.5 Units]
Oregon St -2.5 [1 Unit]
New Mexico St +18 [1 Unit]
Texas -6.5 [1 Unit]
Colorado State +4 [1 Unit]
Kansas State +15.5 [1 Unit]
Louisville -17 [1 Unit]
Colorado +14 [1 Unit]
Texas A&M ML +145 [1 Unit]
UTEP ML +200 [1 Unit]
1st Half W. Virginia -13 [1 Unit]
Florida Atlantic +10 [0.5 Units] (bought half a point)
Reasoning
Oregon State - I am on the Beavers this week for a number of reasons...
1. This is a revenge game for the Beavers, as Zona rolled into OSU last year came away with a win. So from a situational standpoint, advantage Beavers.
2. Injuries also favor the Beavers. Actually, it really just comes down to 1 injury between the two teams.
Willie Tuitama (QB - AZ) - Doubtful (Concussion)
With Tuitama likely out this week, most of the offensive production will have to come from the running game. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, OSU has had vast improvement in rush defense the last two weeks (giving up an average of 2.7 yards/carry). And on the season, OSU is only giving up an average of 1 more yard/game on the ground than Zona (OSU - 109 yards/game; AZ - 108 yards/game). Zona didn't have much of a passing attack with Tuitama, and with him out, it will allow OSU to stack 8-9 guys in the box to stop the run. The Wildcats could have SERIOUS issues moving the ball on offense. So while everyone keeps talking about Zona having a 'good defense', they keep failing to mention that they have NO OFFENSE (20 points against Stanford...the worst defense in the Pac-10, and that's being generous).
3. Trends - I don't think trends play a huge role, but I do think they hold some merit in capping a game.
OSU is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games against AZ.
OSU is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against AZ.
4. Arizona's rushing output so far this season against good rush defenses.
-13 yards against UCLA
-7 yards against Washington
-16 yards against USC
(yes, those are negative rushing yards)
If these stats don't scream one dimensional, I don't know what does. Zona did put up impressive rushing numbers against SF Austin and Stanford (whoopee!).
5. OSU is simply a more balanced team on offense, and actually has the superior rush defense in my honest opinion. Statistically, the Beavers are better than AZ in almost every category.
New Mexico State - I just couldn't pass up what is statistically the #1 ranked passing attack in the country getting 18 at home. Could be a bit of a let down spot for the Rainbow Warriors as well. Despite the fact I even posted a strong lean on the Aggies last week, I didn't have the guts to pull the trigger, and missed the opportunity to cash in. I took the plunge with no hesitation this time. It helps that HG is on them too...LOL.
Week 8 Leans
So. Miss +17.5
Tennessee -11
Any feedback on these is greatly appreciated. :cheers:
YTD NCAAF M/L Plays: 3-5 [-0.3 Units]
YTD NCAAF Totals: 1-0 [+1.0 Units]
YTD NCAAF Overall: +1.7 Units
Week 8 Card
Pittsburgh -6 [2.5 Units]
Oregon St -2.5 [1 Unit]
New Mexico St +18 [1 Unit]
Texas -6.5 [1 Unit]
Colorado State +4 [1 Unit]
Kansas State +15.5 [1 Unit]
Louisville -17 [1 Unit]
Colorado +14 [1 Unit]
Texas A&M ML +145 [1 Unit]
UTEP ML +200 [1 Unit]
1st Half W. Virginia -13 [1 Unit]
Florida Atlantic +10 [0.5 Units]
(bought half a point)Reasoning
Oregon State - I am on the Beavers this week for a number of reasons...
1. This is a revenge game for the Beavers, as Zona rolled into OSU last year came away with a win. So from a situational standpoint, advantage Beavers.
2. Injuries also favor the Beavers. Actually, it really just comes down to 1 injury between the two teams.
Willie Tuitama (QB - AZ) - Doubtful (Concussion)
With Tuitama likely out this week, most of the offensive production will have to come from the running game. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, OSU has had vast improvement in rush defense the last two weeks (giving up an average of 2.7 yards/carry). And on the season, OSU is only giving up an average of 1 more yard/game on the ground than Zona (OSU - 109 yards/game; AZ - 108 yards/game). Zona didn't have much of a passing attack with Tuitama, and with him out, it will allow OSU to stack 8-9 guys in the box to stop the run. The Wildcats could have SERIOUS issues moving the ball on offense. So while everyone keeps talking about Zona having a 'good defense', they keep failing to mention that they have NO OFFENSE (20 points against Stanford...the worst defense in the Pac-10, and that's being generous).
3. Trends - I don't think trends play a huge role, but I do think they hold some merit in capping a game.
OSU is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games against AZ.
OSU is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against AZ.
4. Arizona's rushing output so far this season against good rush defenses.
-13 yards against UCLA
-7 yards against Washington
-16 yards against USC
(yes, those are negative rushing yards)
If these stats don't scream one dimensional, I don't know what does. Zona did put up impressive rushing numbers against SF Austin and Stanford (whoopee!).
5. OSU is simply a more balanced team on offense, and actually has the superior rush defense in my honest opinion. Statistically, the Beavers are better than AZ in almost every category.
New Mexico State - I just couldn't pass up what is statistically the #1 ranked passing attack in the country getting 18 at home. Could be a bit of a let down spot for the Rainbow Warriors as well. Despite the fact I even posted a strong lean on the Aggies last week, I didn't have the guts to pull the trigger, and missed the opportunity to cash in. I took the plunge with no hesitation this time. It helps that HG is on them too...LOL.
Week 8 Leans
So. Miss +17.5
Tennessee -11
Any feedback on these is greatly appreciated. :cheers:
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