TNF: TEXANS
Houston’s defense has limited its last three opposing pass attacks to fewer than 200 yards and a quarterback rating under 80. Granted, its last quarterbacks faced weren’t special, but neither is Miami’s Brock Osweiler. The career backup will likely start again—this time, against one of his former teams. He may also miss some healthy receivers like his best one Devante Parker. Osweiler won’t get much support from the rush attack, either. Both Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake average fewer than 50 yards per game. Miami doesn’t pose much of a scoring threat. Even with a healthy Tannehill at quarterback, Miami hasn’t exceeded 20 points in three road games.
The Texans’ offense will see plenty of time of possession with which to wear down Miami’s defense. Houston can put up points in a hurry with Deshaun Watson at quarterback. He has four games in which he’s thrown for over 300 yards. His top receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, is extremely difficult for anyone to cover. Hopkins has over 700 yards so far and is always a deep threat. Miami’s pass defense is vulnerable to the big play, ranking second-to-last in opposing yards per pass completion.
SNF: SAINTS
The Vikings are favored although they lack a significant advantage against the Saints. Particularly, Minnesota’s defense has been disappointing. On Sunday, it benefitted from facing a rookie quarterback in windy conditions. But it has yet to succeed against a good quarterback. Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, and Carson Wentz each shredded the Vikings’ partially injury-ridden secondary with high-yardage outputs, a solid touchdown-to-interception ratio, and a strong completion percentage. Drew Brees led his team to a comeback against one of the NFL’s most vaunted defenses in Baltimore. With a 13-to-zero touchdown-to-interception ratio, he’s a major reason why the Saints have won five and covered four in a row.
The obvious objection is that New Orleans’ defense lacks a strong reputation. Even if we grant this objection despite the fact that New Orleans has, like Minnesota, held half of its opponents to fewer than 20 points, the Saints boast a more balanced attack. Minnesota’s backup running back isn’t as effective as injured starter Dalvin Cook. Conversely, the Saints boast a three-headed monster with superstar Alvin Kamara, the physical Mark Ingram, and x-factor Taysom Hill.
TEXANS: One O (Miami) is struggling to score on the road and struggling with injury, the other one (Houston) is capable of big plays and will score plenty against Miami D ranked second-to-last in opp. YPA
JAGUARS: When Bortles was benched in the preseason, he responded by playing way better. Hyde will give O a further lift. The defense is still elite. Eagles are struggling. London is Jax’s second home.
BEARS: Bears’ O has scored 48, 28, 31 points in its last three games. Trubisky is finally living up to the hype. We already know that the defense is elite. Darnold will get eaten up, has yet to cover on road.
BENGALS: Bucs D ranks dead-last in opp. passer rating. Home is perfect place for Bengals to bounce back. They hopefully learned from MNF that they need to do more RPO and feed Green more. Bucs off OT loss.
SEAHAWKS: Seahawks 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS L5 after bye. All covers by double digits. Failed to cover against 13-3 Cards in ‚15 and runners-up Falcons in ‚16. Seattle loves to run, Detroit has bottom-ranked run D.
CHIEFS: Destroying Arizona doesn’t convince me that Broncos are a good road team. Chiefs are unstoppable. Their stacked O gets a huge lead, forces other team to pass and get eaten by KC’s strong pass rush.
GIANTS: Skins have won once in last five years at Giants. Their playmakers on O are dealing with injury. Saquon will bounce back for Giants. NYG D is improving, allowing only 3.4 YPC in last three games.
BROWNS: Steelers 0-4 L4 ATS after bye week. Every Browns game but one decided by four points or fewer. They don't win, but excel at keeping games close. They limit opposing scoring, rank first in takeaways.
RAVENS: D travels. Ravens collapsed against Brees-led Saints, expect them to play strong until the end. Ravens are pass-first and Panthers rank 20th in opp. passer rating, even gave up 300 yards to Eli.
COLTS: Impossible to bet on Raiders. Team is trading away its best players, losing by double digits in each of last two weeks. They seem hell-bent on getting first-round pick. Colts seem in way better shape.
RAMS: Packers don’t travel well, lost by double-digits at Washington and fell behind 24-0 in Detroit. Spread seems large, but Rams are regularly dropping 30+ per game. Should see something like 38-24 here.
49ERS: 49ers must feel embarrassed for losing to this team. Cards look demoralized with players asking to be traded after suffering a blowout at home. 49ers will exact revenge here. Rosen not NFL-ready.
SAINTS: Vikings pass D has been vulnerable to good quarterbacks—Rodgers, Goff, Wentz handled them with ease. Saints also boast more balanced offense with healthy running backs. Take the points with Brees.
PATRIOTS: This spread can’t be too high. Bills defense is extremely underrated, but the offense commits so many turnovers, which is how the Colts, scored 30+ last week. Patriots rank sixth in forcing turnovers.
Houston’s defense has limited its last three opposing pass attacks to fewer than 200 yards and a quarterback rating under 80. Granted, its last quarterbacks faced weren’t special, but neither is Miami’s Brock Osweiler. The career backup will likely start again—this time, against one of his former teams. He may also miss some healthy receivers like his best one Devante Parker. Osweiler won’t get much support from the rush attack, either. Both Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake average fewer than 50 yards per game. Miami doesn’t pose much of a scoring threat. Even with a healthy Tannehill at quarterback, Miami hasn’t exceeded 20 points in three road games.
The Texans’ offense will see plenty of time of possession with which to wear down Miami’s defense. Houston can put up points in a hurry with Deshaun Watson at quarterback. He has four games in which he’s thrown for over 300 yards. His top receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, is extremely difficult for anyone to cover. Hopkins has over 700 yards so far and is always a deep threat. Miami’s pass defense is vulnerable to the big play, ranking second-to-last in opposing yards per pass completion.
SNF: SAINTS
The Vikings are favored although they lack a significant advantage against the Saints. Particularly, Minnesota’s defense has been disappointing. On Sunday, it benefitted from facing a rookie quarterback in windy conditions. But it has yet to succeed against a good quarterback. Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, and Carson Wentz each shredded the Vikings’ partially injury-ridden secondary with high-yardage outputs, a solid touchdown-to-interception ratio, and a strong completion percentage. Drew Brees led his team to a comeback against one of the NFL’s most vaunted defenses in Baltimore. With a 13-to-zero touchdown-to-interception ratio, he’s a major reason why the Saints have won five and covered four in a row.
The obvious objection is that New Orleans’ defense lacks a strong reputation. Even if we grant this objection despite the fact that New Orleans has, like Minnesota, held half of its opponents to fewer than 20 points, the Saints boast a more balanced attack. Minnesota’s backup running back isn’t as effective as injured starter Dalvin Cook. Conversely, the Saints boast a three-headed monster with superstar Alvin Kamara, the physical Mark Ingram, and x-factor Taysom Hill.
TEXANS: One O (Miami) is struggling to score on the road and struggling with injury, the other one (Houston) is capable of big plays and will score plenty against Miami D ranked second-to-last in opp. YPA
JAGUARS: When Bortles was benched in the preseason, he responded by playing way better. Hyde will give O a further lift. The defense is still elite. Eagles are struggling. London is Jax’s second home.
BEARS: Bears’ O has scored 48, 28, 31 points in its last three games. Trubisky is finally living up to the hype. We already know that the defense is elite. Darnold will get eaten up, has yet to cover on road.
BENGALS: Bucs D ranks dead-last in opp. passer rating. Home is perfect place for Bengals to bounce back. They hopefully learned from MNF that they need to do more RPO and feed Green more. Bucs off OT loss.
SEAHAWKS: Seahawks 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS L5 after bye. All covers by double digits. Failed to cover against 13-3 Cards in ‚15 and runners-up Falcons in ‚16. Seattle loves to run, Detroit has bottom-ranked run D.
CHIEFS: Destroying Arizona doesn’t convince me that Broncos are a good road team. Chiefs are unstoppable. Their stacked O gets a huge lead, forces other team to pass and get eaten by KC’s strong pass rush.
GIANTS: Skins have won once in last five years at Giants. Their playmakers on O are dealing with injury. Saquon will bounce back for Giants. NYG D is improving, allowing only 3.4 YPC in last three games.
BROWNS: Steelers 0-4 L4 ATS after bye week. Every Browns game but one decided by four points or fewer. They don't win, but excel at keeping games close. They limit opposing scoring, rank first in takeaways.
RAVENS: D travels. Ravens collapsed against Brees-led Saints, expect them to play strong until the end. Ravens are pass-first and Panthers rank 20th in opp. passer rating, even gave up 300 yards to Eli.
COLTS: Impossible to bet on Raiders. Team is trading away its best players, losing by double digits in each of last two weeks. They seem hell-bent on getting first-round pick. Colts seem in way better shape.
RAMS: Packers don’t travel well, lost by double-digits at Washington and fell behind 24-0 in Detroit. Spread seems large, but Rams are regularly dropping 30+ per game. Should see something like 38-24 here.
49ERS: 49ers must feel embarrassed for losing to this team. Cards look demoralized with players asking to be traded after suffering a blowout at home. 49ers will exact revenge here. Rosen not NFL-ready.
SAINTS: Vikings pass D has been vulnerable to good quarterbacks—Rodgers, Goff, Wentz handled them with ease. Saints also boast more balanced offense with healthy running backs. Take the points with Brees.
PATRIOTS: This spread can’t be too high. Bills defense is extremely underrated, but the offense commits so many turnovers, which is how the Colts, scored 30+ last week. Patriots rank sixth in forcing turnovers.
