The Pack is 4-1 ATS L5 road games and 6-0 ATS L6 games overall. Cards 5-2 ATS L7 games as a fav and 5-0 ATS L5 games overall. The under is 4-0 in Packers L4 games overall and under is 4-1 in Cardinals L5 games as a fav. The under is also 5-1 L6 meetings in Arizona.
Green Bay's offense has been hit or miss all season long, and they could be without Davante Adams, which certainly doesn’t help matters. Zona is making a decent case as the best team in the league and while everybody talks about their explosive offense, their defense is #1 in scoring defense. The line is pretty sharp, but I sure most folks can't leave a touchdown on the table with Rodgers on the other side. This is also just the third time since 2018 where the Packers have been an underdog of six or more points. Vegas don't make many mistake, lay the wood...DD win for the Cards!
Bolts 18-37-1 ATS L56 @home and 8-2 ATS L10 overall. Under 11-4 in Pats L15 overall and 5-1 in Chargers L6 overall. NE 4-1 ATS L5 meetings in LA plus 6-0 ATS L6 meetings period. The Pats look to be playing much better lately, as they beat the Texans on the road, took DAL to OT and just blew out the Jets. The Chargers got smoked by the Ravens last time out, but they’ve had an extra week to prepare for today. LA's explosive passing game is going to test a Patriots secondary that’s average at best, and I’m not confident Jones and that New England offense can find enough consistent success to match. I’ll lean with LA at home.
Broncos were quite tepid offensively in their last outing, with just 223 total yards, 41 rush yards, 4.6 yards per play and 15 first downs. Things likely would have been worse if not for the Browns’ nine penalties. Hopefully the bye week did Denver some good. WAS looked good statistically in the loss to the Packers with 430 total yards, 195 rush yards, 6.1 yards per play and 25 first downs. They were up against a very efficient GB team that didn’t make too many mistakes, though. Looking for the Team to score a little better here, but still seeing an eventual Denver cover.
Bucs 4-1 ATS L5 vs NFC South and 1-4 ATS L5 games in Week 8. The Saints are 7-3 ATS L10 vs NFC South and 11-5 ATS L16 overall. The over is 27-12 in Buccaneers L39 away. The under is 7-2 in Saints L9 overall. The Bucs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings. The road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Tampa looks like a team getting better each week, as the offense is elite, ranked first in passing offense, second in total offense and third in scoring offense. The Bucs have scored 24 or more points in six of their first seven games. Saints have a short week, and they have an offense that struggles to sustain drives, as they’re ranked 29th in total offense. To make matters worse for the Saints, the Buccaneers have the best rush defense in the league, which means Winston will have to make plays with his arm to stay in this. I’ll back the Bucs on the road even if this game feels a little stinky.
The Bears have the lowest net passing yards at this point in a season for any team since the 2006 Raiders (861 yards). Their O-line is last in the NFL in sack rate. This is an offense that is bottom tier of the NFL. Defensively, the Bears are living off of their past reputation. This season, the Bears rank 31st in the NFL in pressure percentage and also are 29th in YPC allowed. There's no doubt about it, this is a bad team, who's clearly inferior to SF. The Niners have handled the two easy opponents on their schedule in DET and PHI, and could have easily went 2-2 instead of 0-4 in four matchups against above average to elite teams in AZ, SEA, GB, and IND. The big weakness for SF is their secondary, something the Bears lack the ability to take advantage of. Definitely lean SF but hard to back such a cold team.
Model has Browns -3.5 with Keenum at QB, and -6 with Baker. Obviously prefer Mayfield is at QB (which some early reports seem to think is very possible), but regardless, I'm leaning CLE. PIT is a bad team, with an immobile quarterback playing behind a poor offensive line who will be tasked with protecting him against one of the leagues best pass rushes. As long as Cleveland's roster is relatively healthy, which it appears they will be coming off a mini bye this week, this is a mismatch of talent.
BUF cloudy, 40% chance of rain, High 50's, Wind 14-16 mph as the Bills return from their bye with a little bit of anger following their MNF defeat in Nashville 2 weeks ago where they couldn’t convert on 4th & inches inside the TEN 5 yd line with under a minute remaining (BUF 28-16 FD & 417-362 yd edges). Fish meanwhile are likely battling some jet lag as this marks their 3rd road trip in 4 weeks that included a trip to London in week 6. MIA has now dropped 2 straight where their opposition has connected on a GW FG as time expired. In the Bills’ trip to South Beach week 2, MIA was held to just 13 FD’s and 216 yds in a 35-0 blowout loss. While I expect MIA to at least get on the scoreboard this time around, their 2-7 ATS run coming in along with BUF having covered 12 of their past 14 has me backing the Bills in this one.
