Week 7

H

HookedOnUT1

Pretty much a regular
Big Bets: 8-5, +21 units
Medium Bets: 10-10-1, +3 units
Small bets: 12-12, +1.4 units
Overall Record for the Year: 30-27-1, +25.4 units

Here's what I'm leaning to for week 7. The first one I locked in is Oklahoma -13 for a big bet. It's not a system play, but rather me being a UT fan that has seen this story before (only we had more talent and the outcome was still misery).

As always, I appreciate any and all feedback as I sort through my numbers and ultimately get to my final card. Plays that are locked in are in bold.

Big Bets (6 units):
  • Oklahoma -13, bit for 4 more units at -11.5 (10 units total) L
  • OU -7 2H (10 units) L
  • Boston College +24.5 W
  • Florida +7 L

Medium Bets (3 units unless noted):
  • Baylor -17 (4 units) L
  • Louisville -18.5 L
  • Michigan State -10 W (moved from big bet)
  • Maryland -6 L
  • New Mexico +15.5 W
  • BYU -7
  • Colorado +25
  • Colorado +28.5
  • Kentucky +27
  • Texas A&M -7
  • Mississippi State -11
  • Rice -1 W
  • Florida ML +250 (2 units) L
  • Oregon State/Washington State O 63
  • Oregon State -1.5

Small Bets (1 unit unless noted):
  • Arizona +6 (2 units) L
  • Akron +22
  • Memphis +10 PUSH
  • Arizona ML +205 L
 
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Initial thoughts here:

Big Bets:
  • Oklahoma -13 -- in addition to the thoughts above, I could give a 6 page write-up as to why I think this is going to be a blowout. Stoops brothers will put Mack in his grave.
  • Boston College +24.5 (BC off next week, so all focus on Clemson, while the Tigers have some little game against the Noles next week).
  • Florida +7

Medium Bets:
  • Baylor -17 -- numbers actually suggest a big play, but first road game/semi-legitimate test, as well as the Cats being off next week and wanting revenge -- are the things keeping me from making it a big play.
  • Louisville -18.5 -- Cardinals with a Thursday night game, knowing this might be one of the last times that they'll have the nation's attention.
  • Michigan State -10
  • Maryland -7 -- Rex said it best in his thread.
  • New Mexico +15.5
  • BYU -7
  • Colorado +25 -- Sun Devils with a bit of a trap game coming off the ND contest and a matchup with Washington next week.
  • Kentucky +27.5 -- huge home night game for the Cats, hoping they can feed off what should be a rowdy crowd.
  • Rice +1 -- again, see Rexy's thread.
  • Florida ML -- love the Gators to win outright

Small Bets:
  • Akron +22 -- Numbers suggest a medium play, but Zips off a mud-stomping make me a bit gun-shy.
  • Memphis +10 -- Numbers suggest a medium play, but how do the Tigers respond after nearly beating UCF last week? Also, Houston getting healthy and coming off of a bye week.
  • Arizona ML -- value play. My numbers say they are equal teams.
  • Miami (OH) ML -- two bad teams, but equal teams nonetheless
  • Oregon St. ML -- Schedule sets up great, and I have the Beavers as a 5.5 point favorite.
 
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looks good, bud. fwiw, i made the beavs a 1.5 pt fav. going the other way, against my #s, due to the situation...and the way both teams are playing right now. wash st is playing better defense, as crazy as that sounds.
if wazzou doesn't win this game, considering the remaining schedule, where do they get to 6 wins? doesn't happen...yet a bowl is a huge priority for the program this year. leach gonna work some magic...
 
Yanks27Sox7 said:
looks good, bud. fwiw, i made the beavs a 1.5 pt fav. going the other way, against my #s, due to the situation...and the way both teams are playing right now. wash st is playing better defense, as crazy as that sounds.
if wazzou doesn't win this game, considering the remaining schedule, where do they get to 6 wins? doesn't happen...yet a bowl is a huge priority for the program this year. leach gonna work some magic...
Click to expand...

Good feedback Yanks, and I'm not totally sure I'll play the Beavs yet.
 
with you on OU, and also with you on being a longhorn fan and seeing this as a colossal ass-whoopin. if ou wins by less than 20 i'll be shocked.
 
Elbutre88 said:
with you on OU, and also with you on being a longhorn fan and seeing this as a colossal ass-whoopin. if ou wins by less than 20 i'll be shocked.
Click to expand...

Haha yep El. I was listening to the radio here this morning, and Dusty Dvoracek was talking about how he could see this being a close game. I think he's just saying the right thing, as to me all of the quotes from our players show a team just hoping to stay in it, rather than thinking they are going to win.
 
lots in common, and the beavs line is getting better for you. fwiw, i might just leave it at the over for that game. (think it's much safer than the side, if i'm not getting the line mvmt/value i was hoping to see.)
 
Hook bol Saturday Kentucky looks real good most of the public will be all over BAMA
 
Got nothing to add on the UT front. It's a terrible matchup for us. More than anything, OU collectively is playing like a bunch of Trey Millards this year. Not overly talented, but physical as hell. And that's a death wish for Texas. We wilt simply when the wind changes directions. Such is what happens when you have a soft and gutless team with no leadership. Ash is about the only player on the team that's shown any degree of leadership and the poor kid is still seeing stars and may not play another down of football. (But, hey, we do have thuggish WRs very adept at cheap cut blocks.)

Sans something freakish (ie., OU turning it over in bunches), this feels very much like a 37-13 type game.
 
dilaudid8 said:
Hook bol Saturday Kentucky looks real good most of the public will be all over BAMA
Click to expand...

Thanks d8, and I agree. So far (knock on wood), these seem to be the games where the Tide goes about their business in a workmanlike manner, but nothing over-the-top to prove any points.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Got nothing to add on the UT front. It's a terrible matchup for us. More than anything, OU collectively is playing like a bunch of Trey Millards this year. Not overly talented, but physical as hell. And that's a death wish for Texas. We wilt simply when the wind changes directions. Such is what happens when you have a soft and gutless team with no leadership. Ash is about the only player on the team that's shown any degree of leadership and the poor kid is still seeing stars and may not play another down of football. (But, hey, we do have thuggish WRs very adept at cheap cut blocks.)

Sans something freakish (ie., OU turning it over in bunches), this feels very much like a 37-13 type game.
Click to expand...

Frank, it's funny that you bring up Millard, because I still have the vision from his run last year in my head. I just see that happening multiple times this year. I think 37-13 is a great call, and unfortunately I could see it possibly being even more.
 
Added 4 more units on OU at -11.5. I hope that my eyes haven't fooled me, because it feels like a sucker bet.

What Texas needs is not an overnight correction, as it requires a shift in culture. There are many key layers where OU has the advantage: coaching, confidence (in this particular game and in general), development of fundamentals, and execution of systems. Some of these might not show up in various numbers. This game is like no other in terms of how the momentum can be swung. When you lack confidence, that's a recipe for disaster. And we've all seen that the OU coaches will go for the throat. I'm hoping that it's just one last time.
 
you mean Oklahoma right? i agree with you but this may be the trap of the century haha. every smart ncaa mind i know is predicting a blowout
 
D-Woww said:
you mean Oklahoma right? i agree with you but this may be the trap of the century haha. every smart ncaa mind i know is predicting a blowout
Click to expand...

Yes I did, good catch. I guess it's just hard for me to type their name. Haha. We'll see, but I sure as hell hope we're going to the bank!
 
So I am a sucker. Still trying to wrap my head around the game in Dallas today, as that's a Texas team I haven't seen in years. Bell proved to be a major liability to the Sooners, as we forced him to throw (like we should have done Hill for BYU), and he simply couldn't get the ball in the same area code as his receivers.

I thought we would see different teams after the half, and put another 10 units on OU -7 2H. Needless to say, I lost my ass on that game. Gonna have to hit a high rate of my other plays to get it near even.

Locked in a few more for the day, and I've marked those in my first post.
 
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