Week #7

damn...

no value with UW. they should be a 16.5 to 17 pt fav at home vs Arizona. Was hoping for -14 or better, but -15.5 puts it in no man's land as an open.

not getting any value in the USC/Utah game right now either. :( interested to see if it moves one way or the other.
 
ok, that's it for now. 3 plays at the open, but will keep at it. :shake:


so many key injuries too. wish we could know more, because it sure sucked getting stuck with Kentucky yesterday. take the Kansas/Oklahoma game, for example. will it be a battle of backup QBs? such a shame...

lastly, early movement is pushing Utah up. they should be about a FG fav at home. but considering how disappointing they've been, almost across the board...but especially on defense, and in toughness...could the impossible happen? ;) could future line mvmt actually get me to back the hated Trojans in this spot?
 
Ok, 4 plays to kick off the week:

Clemson (-6) for 1
Washington St (+3.5) for 1
Alabama (-7) @ -120 for 1
Florida (-2.5) for 1

Cost myself the extra juice by going early with Bama, but shocked to hear/see that the Clemson line dropped. Wasn't around, or watching, but if it comes back to a flat 4 again, or even something better, I'm gonna double up on that play.
 
I'll be on Clemson if that one continues to drop - IMO that movement makes little sense.

You like the Utes or USC? - bad D / terrible ST @ Utah? They've won 16/17 and covered 13 at P12 home . Utes often start slow (45% ATS in Sept / 75% in Oct) - mad / late Trojan $ might drop this to 2'/2....? But I've faded USC several times and lost each one ha - last week I loved Wazzu

Leaning Beavs at home, esp. at 3/3' - but you're right probably Wazzu absolutely OWNS the Beavs .... 8-0 SU / 6-2 ATS run - line says Nolan is likely out so I might back off.

BOL this week man ............. :shake:
 
bookieassassin said:
I'll be on Clemson if that one continues to drop - IMO that movement makes little sense.

You like the Utes or USC? - bad D / terrible ST @ Utah? They've won 16/17 and covered 13 at P12 home . Utes often start slow (45% ATS in Sept / 75% in Oct) - mad / late Trojan $ might drop this to 2'/2....? But I've faded USC several times and lost each one ha - last week I loved Wazzu

Leaning Beavs at home, esp. at 3/3' - but you're right probably Wazzu absolutely OWNS the Beavs .... 8-0 SU / 6-2 ATS run - line says Nolan is likely out so I might back off.

BOL this week man ............. :shake:
Click to expand...

thanks, @bookieassassin :shake:

Heading in, I really liked the Utes...and had planned on playing them, but the last couple weeks have me questioning their toughness, their defense, and even their coaching. Giving up way, way too many yards lately...and not looking like the team I thought they were. The Bruins & Chip just abused them, which took me by surprise...even after seeing the yards the Beavs put up the week before.

USC is a flawed team, and can easily be had. Beavs almost did it, but they just don't have enough offense. The SC defense is soft against power running, and the secondary isn't good against good QBs/receivers. They really have a cupcake schedule. It's this game at Utah, and the UCLA game...unless Notre Dame can find an offense. Anyhow, I'm impressed by the Trojan offense at times...but not much else. Typical Pac-12 team, and they're front-running.

I will still most likely play Utah -3, but just waiting. The total is high, but could look at TTs as well.
Haven't been that impressed with the Utes receivers, but the back up TE is solid...and Rising doesn't lose at home. Home team 7-2 (6-3 ATS). They should get a better performance out of their defense at home, and they shouldn't be as confused as Chip seemingly had them...but tbh, all that said, I'm still concerned about their defense. Can they contain SC enough, with the bend but don't break crap?
 
some additions from today...

Clemson (-3) @ -121 for 1
Penn St/Michigan under 52.5 for 1

and two teasers...

Oklahoma St (+10) to OkSt/TCU ov 62.5 for 1
Washington (-8) to Arizona/UW ov 66.5 for 1

doubled up on Clemson. think the PSU/UM spread is spot on, but this series hasn't reached the 50s since 2017. and the teasers are what they are.
they won't get posted, but I fully expect to be adding TT overs on the Pokes, UW, and maybe even TCU as well. there aren't as many games/sides that I like this week, at least so far, so i'm going to hit the few games that I really do like harder...or in a couple different ways.
 
Yanks27Sox9 said:
some additions from today...

Clemson (-3) @ -121 for 1
Penn St/Michigan under 52.5 for 1

and two teasers...

Oklahoma St (+10) to OkSt/TCU ov 62.5 for 1
Washington (-8) to Arizona/UW ov 66.5 for 1

doubled up on Clemson. think the PSU/UM spread is spot on, but this series hasn't reached the 50s since 2017. and the teasers are what they are.
they won't get posted, but I fully expect to be adding TT overs on the Pokes, UW, and maybe even TCU as well. there aren't as many games/sides that I like this week, at least so far, so i'm going to hit the few games that I really do like harder...or in a couple different ways.
Click to expand...
Nice job being patient on Clemson and getting a better line than I did! Same boat as you and we will both probably be thinking the same thing either way by the time midnight rolls around on Saturday night!
 
carolinablue said:
Nice job being patient on Clemson and getting a better line than I did! Same boat as you and we will both probably be thinking the same thing either way by the time midnight rolls around on Saturday night!
Click to expand...

it's 10 cents lower as we speak, lol. not sure what i'm missing...
 
some additions from today...

Minnesota (-6) @ -118 for 1
Kentucky (+4.5) @ -116 for 1
Iowa St (+17) @ -120 for 1

and another teaser...

Navy (+19) to Navy/SMU over 51 for 1

wish i would have taken Minny at -3.5 and Kentucky at +7 earlier in the week. was slow waiting for injury info. illinois QB dinged up, and they're off a tough game. ibrahim is back, and they're off a bye. Minny 6-2 SU & ATS at Illinois, and that should continue at anything below a TD. wildcats better get Levis back, or this is a loser. looks promising though. home team in series on a 7-0 run SU & ATS. as for iowa st, it's a classic let down spot for texas...and also a sandwich between both oklahoma schools for the horns. i actually tried to tease iowa st to the under, but was denied by my 3 options. :( isu has won 3 straight over texas, and don't see them losing by more than 2 TDs here. lastly, the teaser was for some weeknight action. like navy to keep it close, and 55 pts was the lowest total between these 2 in the L5 years.
 
Last edited:
Updated card on Wednesday evening:

Clemson (-3) @ -121 for 1
Clemson (-6) for 1
Washington St (+3.5) for 1
Alabama (-7) @ -120 for 1
Florida (-2.5) for 1
Penn St/Michigan under 52.5 for 1
Minnesota (-6) @ -118 for 1
Kentucky (+4.5) @ -116 for 1
Iowa St (+17) @ -120 for 1
Oklahoma St (+10) to OkSt/TCU ov 62.5 for 1
Washington (-8) to Arizona/UW ov 66.5 for 1
Navy (+19) to Navy/SMU over 51 for 1

Still thinking about Kansas. Still waiting on Utah. And still planning on a few (possibly handful of) TTs on Saturday.
 
their defense better show up at home. don't want a repeat of last week...

Utah (-3) @ -115 for 1

Had dinner with my sister and niece last night. She's a Trojan alum, and they're flying to SLC this afternoon for the game. I love them, but I hope they leave the game very disappointed. ;)

Yeah, the Utes looked like crap vs UCLA (especially 2nd half)...and Oregon St gained way too many yards on them too...but despite my concerns about their defense, I'm back on the Utes, as I was planning to be for weeks. I know it's only Week 7, but these 2 already have 2 common opponents...ASU and OSU. Take from those games what you will. (I see more positives in those for the Utes than the Trojans, fwiw.)

Anyhow, this is the GOY for both squads. Utes next tough game is at Oregon on 11/19. USC's next tough game is also on 11/19 at UCLA.
 
won the friday night action teaser, so adding another...

Kansas (+15) to Kansas/Oklahoma over 58 for 1

other than the TTs i'll be adding tomorrow, and any live action, that should complete the card.


i've got all my stuff ready for the Week #8 openers, but won't be around until Sunday night. until then, hope it's a good saturday! with these handful of big games, and 4 playoff baseball games as well, doubt i'll be away from the TVs much tomorrow. :)
 
around to post today, as i'm not leaving the TVs for long. so a few additions...

TCU TT over 36 (-120) for 1
Georgia Southern (+13) for 1/2
Louisiana Tech (+7) @ -115 for 1/2
 
Leary out for the year, but a ton of action coming on NCST today. Want to join the fun, but can't do it...not in a tough road game. Just find it interesting. Is this a case of addition by subtraction???
 
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