Week 7

[Capaholic]

YTD 33-13-2 69.4% +19.51u


I realize I am playing with fire on a couple (Chicago in particular) but I feel as though there are solid reasons. Numbers and value being the key reasons. Remember always, it's not just "sharps" who play the numbers. We must play the numbers as well and we have plenty of "sharp" folks right here.


Tennessee +7 -121 At best LAC is 4 points better than the Titans when ranking the teams. Neutral field, going to give a TD to Tenn? I'm in

Chicago +3.... Let me understand this... And I have been burnt by New England many many times.. but are you telling me that NE would be -9 at home against Chi? Because that's what we are looking at here. NE would be 6.5/7 at home and this line should be 1.

Kansas City -5.5 Very simple. Was taking anything under a TD. I have KC 4 pts better on a neutral field. Give me that with Arrowhead again in prime time.

NY Jets +3.5 Made this 1.5. Again a numbers play and a fade to the current form of Minnesota. DVOA says the Jets are the better team.

Waiting on a couple more...

Good luck to all

 

[D-Woww]

awesome season so far. I have noticed that we cap similarly and I have also been having a successful season, though not quite 69% (nice). I have a very icky feeling about this week though; sooner or later these road favs are at least going to win some and regress towards the mean. think im staying away from Chicago for that reason. Like KC and Jets. Jets are prob my favorite play of the week aside from Baltimore. You got any thoughts on the Ravens?

 

[Capaholic]

awesome season so far. I have noticed that we cap similarly and I have also been having a successful season, though not quite 69% (nice). I have a very icky feeling about this week though; sooner or later these road favs are at least going to win some and regress towards the mean. think im staying away from Chicago for that reason. Like KC and Jets. Jets are prob my favorite play of the week aside from Baltimore. You got any thoughts on the Ravens?

I think it's Ravens or nothing. Doesn't mean NO can't or won't win, but I wouldn't back that squad in that stadium.

Re: the Bears, I liken it to hitting on 16 in Blackjack. You should do it every time. But some people will do it only once in a while. So you gotta pick one. Either every time, or never. And when these situational spots pop up, (to me) you gotta either play them every time or never. If that makes sense. That's how I roll lol

 

[D-Woww]

I think it's Ravens or nothing. Doesn't mean NO can't or won't win, but I wouldn't back that squad in that stadium.

Re: the Bears, I liken it to hitting on 16 in Blackjack. You should do it every time. But some people will do it only once in a while. So you gotta pick one. Either every time, or never. And when these situational spots pop up, (to me) you gotta either play them every time or never. If that makes sense. That's how I roll lol

yeah that absolutely makes sense, ive heard that before and I agree with it, I just have 3 amendments to that that I personally follow:

1. never bet the giants even if they look sharp
2. never bet against bellichick unless ur getting more than a td
3. never count on Bill O Brien to cover as a favorite, only take Texans getting points

those are the 3 "exceptions" I have developed after being continually frustrated by them

 

[Capaholic]

yeah that absolutely makes sense, ive heard that before and I agree with it, I just have 3 amendments to that that I personally follow:

1. never bet the giants even if they look sharp
2. never bet against bellichick unless ur getting more than a td
3. never count on Bill O Brien to cover as a favorite, only take Texans getting points

those are the 3 "exceptions" I have developed after being continually frustrated by them

Last year the Browns fit in rule 1 so many times. You make valid points.

I look at the Patriots and ask myself, “which teams do they have the most trouble with?”

Lately it’s been the Chiefs. And on one occasion it was the Eagles. And now they face the Bears. All three of those teams run the same type of attack. (From the same coaching tree) Now the Bears don’t have the weapons of the previous 2, but I think Trubisky and Foles are on a similar level. And I do think the defense will get serious pressure on Brady.

 

[rambler882]

Last year the Browns fit in rule 1 so many times. You make valid points.

I look at the Patriots and ask myself, “which teams do they have the most trouble with?”

Lately it’s been the Chiefs. And on occasion it was the Eagles. And now they face the Bears. All three of those teams run the same type of attack. Now the Bears don’t have the weapons of the previous 2, but I think Trubisky and Foles are on a similar level. And I do think the defense will get serious pressure on Brady.

Bears are a good play this week. I've dug in a bit and realistically the Patriots defense should not be able to contain the Bears.

 

[Capaholic]

Bears are a good play this week. I've dug in a bit and realistically the Patriots defense should not be able to contain the Bears.

And I realize they have their own stuff to do, but you can’t tell me that Nagy hasn’t spoken with Reid or Pederson regarding this game.

 

[rambler882]

And I realize they have their own stuff to do, but you can’t tell me that Nagy hasn’t spoken with Reid or Pederson regarding this game.

I love your point about offenses that work against NE. I was sort of thinking a "patriots just saw this offense" but its not like last week is the first time they've seen it and it works. The speed gives Patriots fits, the Bears have it. Gabriel, Miller, Cohen are all speedsters that will create match up issues. Burton & Robinson are not slouches either.

Going into the main reason why I like the Bears is their defense. Top of my head, it should be the best one Patriots sees this season.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

I love your point about offenses that work against NE. I was sort of thinking a "patriots just saw this offense" but its not like last week is the first time they've seen it and it works. The speed gives Patriots fits, the Bears have it. Gabriel, Miller, Cohen are all speedsters that will create match up issues. Burton & Robinson are not slouches either.

Going into the main reason why I like the Bears is their defense. Top of my head, it should be the best one Patriots sees this season.

:angryoldman:

 

[Capaholic]

Most likely no Gronk tomorrow... Good chance for KC to go back up 2 games... And for the Jets to tie for first???

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

GL Cap

 

[LockthisMonster]

Nice thread cap

 

[aplous]

Arrowhead. Tonight. Can’t wait