Week 7

Mets2008

Pretty much a regular
havent posted at all this year but just a thought.

Underdogs and unders hitting at an extremely high percentage this year and with any market there is a point where there will be a mean reversion.

This week "sharp" money again has moved many underdog lines and O/U lines down. Many favorites can be had for much "cheaper" prices than say 2-3 weeks ago. So many O/U of 39 at some point the slot machine gonna give his overs. If perenial "squares" now have cards full of dogs it's time I think for the script to change

So far all I've bet is the following
Miami -3
Rams -3

I'll take home/neutral with what I feel are better teams not laying more than a field goal. More to come.
 
Adding
Pitt -3.5 -115
These lines all moving too much in dog favors
Cincy was one of the worse teams after 2 weeks and now assuming pitt gets -3 for HFA you are telling me pitt is 1/2 a point better than cincy??
 
It definitely will happen at some point where we see like a 10-4 week for favorites...

Hopefully this week, for you.
 
Adding Martavis Bryant over 40.5 yds -115
Steelers have said increased role figure gets 6-7 targets and with this guy likely needs 1-3 catches to get home
 
Solid week
3-0-1 on straight picks

Always wasting money on teasers and props 0-1 on each but much smaller bets than main one
 
I think ML game is priced right
Would take wash +6 or over 48 if either showed but they didn't

Most confident in scoring (tough to say in the NFL these days)

That being the case and expecting a relatively close game

Teaser 1 wash +11.5/over 42.5
Teaser 2 philly +0.5/ over 42.5

Both plays .5 units
 
Always nice to hit 2 teasers on same game

Recap week 7 (might as well keep posting now.. will include MNF)

Straight 3-0-1 +7.5 U
Teasers 2-1 +0.4U
Props 0-1 -0.6U
 
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