Week 7 write-ups and hopefully feedback

[Br@ssknux]

OK gents, I figured I'd sneak back in to the fray, although my card this week is a bit more under control. I had a bit of time the past couple of days to put things together, but I'm off to Chicago for the weekend to catch up with some buddies. Sorry I haven't contributed at all the past couple of weeks.


Here's a few.


1. Iowa -11 @Purdue: Although I am loathe to lay sizable points with Iowa after watching them stagger through a 14-7 win over Rutgers in their last game as a road favorite, there's too much to like about this one to pass it up. First, we have the trends: Since 2013 Iowa is 9-2 ATS as a road favorite while Purdue continues to be one of the worst home dogs in the country, having gone 4-13 ATS despite playing pretty well in a lot of those games. Purdue will be especially vulnerable since they are 2-6 coming off a win...the chances of two passable efforts in a row from a Darrell Hazell team is quite unlikely. Fundamentally, this is also a mismatch in a couple other places, as Iowa has run the ball effectively witht he 1-2 punch of Wadley and Daniels, ranking 44th in ypc, while Purdue is getting gashed on the ground, ranking next to last(127th). Purdue also ranks last in the country in 3rd down conversions against, and that will likely continue against a team like Iowa who rarely gets caught behind the sticks. Purdue can't throw the ball to save their lives (110th against the pass) and this is easily the best pass defense they've faced, so the backdoor seems relatively safe. Iowa has some nice momentum coming off a good road win against a Minnesota team they were dogged against. Although I can understand people not trusting this Iowa team(especially Ferentz) to cover this, the trends and match-ups don't get much more favorable.

 

[Br@ssknux]

2. @Oklahoma -13 v Kansas State: Obviously, it's never a good idea to fade Bill Snyder both in conference games, and also when he's a road dog (or any kind ofdog for that matter) but this is a bad matchup for the Wildcats here in my opinion. Although they've been resourceful so far this year, they can't throw the ball at all, so they'll be unable to exploit what has been a weakness for the Sooners thus far this year. Even against a helpless pass defense, Jesse Ertz struggles as his 10/20, 102 yard performance last week against Texas Tech would suggest. Speaking of that game, Texas Tech somehow managed to pile up 592-335 yardage advantage and still come up short on the scoreboard. Oklahoma has torched the Cats through the air in the past, and I don't think Baker Mayfield and company will have much trouble again this year. Typically, OU struggles much more at home against K Stat than they do in Manhattan, and I'm sure Stoops will be pounding that message home to his kids. Last year the Sooners absolutely curb stomped the Wildcats, outgaining them 568-110(!!). The teams are similar this year...explosive on the OU side and vertically challenged on the K State side. I like the Sooners to overwhelm them this week.

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. West Virginia -1.5 @ Texas Tech: We've got some reverse line movement in this one, and it makes sense to me. The public is on the Red Raiders, and with apparent good reason, as this is the Mountaineers first trip for a true road game this year, and Pat Mahomes is as lethal as ever. However, this Texas Tech defense cannot stop a soul, and I think West Virginia has the antidote to at least slow down Mahomes and company. Last year in Morgantown, the Mounties were able to hold Tech to only 378 yards, the lowest output of the year, and they held Mahomes to only 199 yards on 22 completions. In addition, Tech had a running game last year, as they ran for 179 yards. That won't be the case this year, as they Red Raiders rank 107th on the ground. WV is 6th in pass defense against, so they are much more likely to hold their own on defense than the wet nap D that Kingsbury trots out there...one that's already been torched both on the ground and through the air.

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. @Virginia +4.5 v Pitt: First of all, Virginia is probably the most consistent performer as a home dog as any program in the country. A lot of teams have nice records in that role, but most of those teams aren't home dogs week after week, so we can;t really go off their numbers. UVA is an anomaly in that regard. They keep being made a home dog, and they keep covering, up to 10-2-1 since 2013. Defensively they started out poorly, but are starting to catch their stride under Bronco Mendenhall. Pittsburgh on the other hand has been absolutely atrocious against the pass on defense, ranking 122nd in the country against the pass. UVA QB Kurt Benkert has been great, piling up back to back productive games, including a 5 TD 420 yard effort against Central Michigan, a much better defensive team than Pittsburgh. I think UVa's ability to throw on Pitt might make this a surprisingly easy cover for the Wahoos.

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. @Tennessee +14 v Alabama: The question is whether Tennessee will be able to suck it up and ignore their banged up nature as well as make Alabama score all their points on offense. You typically can count on AT LEAST 2 TDs per game from the Tide on defense and special teams, and if this week is no different, UT won't cover this. However, this is a resourceful bunch having dominated Virginia Tech and what we think is a great Florida defense in second halves earlier this year, not to mention the 692 yard offensive effort against a solid Texas A&M squad in that great game last week. With as good as the Vols have been in the second half this year, it's silly to assume an Alabama rout, especially since Tennessee lead the Tide late in the fourth quarter last year in Tuscaloosa.

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. @Indiana +3 v Nebraska: Nebraska has put together a nice record so far this year, but a closer look at their results indicates that the record is a little less impressive than maybe we thought. The Oregon win doesn't look as impressive now, and they were down to what appears to be a bad Illinois team late in the 3rd quarter. Indiana proved that they are much improved on defense by holding Ohio State to under 400 total yards and completely befuddling their passing game. (9/21 for 93 yards). Offensively, IU is very capable, and Nebraska is ranked 102nd against the run despite that favorable schedule. This is another steam game with reverse line movement, and those kinds of games have been very successful through the years.

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. Northwestern +6.5 @ MIchigan State: I would typically say that MSU is probably very likely to get back on track in this case, but there's two things really hurting Michigan State here. They can't throw the ball on offense, and they can't get off the field on third down. BYU just terrorized them last week, and I think Northwestern can do some of the same things here, and Northwestern's defense is good enough to continue the Spartans woes. I don't think Dantonio has decided on his starter at QB. It's a bit of a mess in EL, and you might see some restless natives if this one gets sideways early. Northwestern is in it's element as a road dog, and MSU is only 11-13 as a home favorites.

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. Miami(FL) -6.5 v North Carolina: Public is all over the dog here, but I think Miami shakes off a sub-par offensive performance and gets their running game back on track against the porous UNC defense. Miami's defense is much better than UNC's and I give a pretty solid statistical edge to the Canes in just about every matchup on the field. The two headed monster tailback situation should have a field on day on that UNC rush defense.

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. @Florida -13 v Missouri: Not a big fan of all these favorites, but I have to fade Missouri here. I remain unconvinced that Drew Lock can move the ball on a defense like Florida's, and the former calling card of the Tigers, their defense, is in a shambles.Believe it or not, they are ranked 114th in country in yards allowed over their opponents average. on the flip side, Florida has quietly had some nice games, and they'll be welcoming Luke Del Rio back. I think Florida gets the job done here in a big way.

 

[Br@ssknux]

10. @Wisconsin +10.5 v Ohio State : I have all the respect in the world for Ohio State and Urban Meyer, but there is something about this Wisconsin defense that makes me think they can hang in this game. They can't run the ball, but they couldn't run it on LSU and Michigan State either. If Wisconsin can play relatively poorly in Ann Arbor and still put a scare into the Wolverines and lose by 7, I like their chances to be in the game as the students shake the stadium to the rafters during the pre 4th quarter rendition of "Jump Around". Wisconsin will give no quarter in this one, and I think they can follow the Indiana template to limit OSU's offensive plan.


That is probably going to be it for now. Take care.

 

[Play2win]

Agree on a few, BOL :cheers3:

 

[Lloyd Braun]

Great stuff as always, BOL

 

[RetroVK]

3. West Virginia -1.5 @ Texas Tech: We've got some reverse line movement in this one, and it makes sense to me. The public is on the Red Raiders, and with apparent good reason, as this is the Mountaineers first trip for a true road game this year, and Pat Mahomes is as lethal as ever. However, this Texas Tech defense cannot stop a soul, and I think West Virginia has the antidote to at least slow down Mahomes and company. Last year in Morgantown, the Mounties were able to hold Tech to only 378 yards, the lowest output of the year, and they held Mahomes to only 199 yards on 22 completions. In addition, Tech had a running game last year, as they ran for 179 yards. That won't be the case this year, as they Red Raiders rank 107th on the ground. WV is 6th in pass defense against, so they are much more likely to hold their own on defense than the wet nap D that Kingsbury trots out there...one that's already been torched both on the ground and through the air.

I actually leaned the other way originally but Mahomes shoulder was so bad at the end of the last game that I have to wonder if he can survive throwing the billion times they do it a game. Other guy is ok but no Mahomes that is for sure. Agree you have by far the better defense there. If Mahomes reaggravates you got this easy.

good luck today ... made me smile to see the thread title.

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

wb, knux... GL today

 

[Br@ssknux]

I actually leaned the other way originally but Mahomes shoulder was so bad at the end of the last game that I have to wonder if he can survive throwing the billion times they do it a game. Other guy is ok but no Mahomes that is for sure. Agree you have by far the better defense there. If Mahomes reaggravates you got this easy.

good luck today ... made me smile to see the thread title.

Thanks Kyle, means a lot coming from you.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Thanks Grind, Play, Lloyd(great handle)

 

[Timh]

BOL Brass - great to see you back on the board.