Week 7 write-ups and hopefully feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
I really hate working. I need to retire. Such is life though so I am getting a very late start and will have to hit the road all day today as well.

Last week was pretty good after a terrible start during the day, 8-5 overall. My year-long total is 48-33 (.592). Not bad.

I'm sticking to my policy of no longer taking any weeknight games, due to horrific results in the recent past, but I feel compelled to make a couple of points about these games tonight.

I kind of like Cincinnati to cover the 6.5-7 that they are getting at BYU. BYU is banged up, and they have not been very good on defense against good passing squads, which Cincy is. Cincy has defensive issues, but BYU QB Tanner Mangum is extremely banged up with a bad ankle and they are without their usual starting RB Adam Hine, among others. Cincy has also covered something like 12 of their last 14 regular season games, and one of the ones they didn't was to Temple this year in a game they outgained the Owls by 250 yards. Incidentally, they've outgained their opponents by 190 yards per game this year. They probably shouldn't be dogged by a full TD here.


Also, how about this: UNLV is a 7 point favorite at Fresno State. Since Tim DeRuyter has been there, Fresno is 18-4 at home, and came into this year 18-2. Since 2005, UNLV is 7-56 on the road. I know Fresno is terrible so far this year and UNLV looks better, but let's hold our horses with the UNLV excitement!


Last one: I love Houston. They are 11-0-1 ATS in their last 12 road games. They are laying 19 at Tulane, who is 0-3 ATS against all non-UCF competition this year and generally can't cover a game to save their lives against decent competition.
 
I read somewhere that unlv is 8-1 ATS in its last conference road games. Can't bet against Fresno though since they haven't covered a game yet.
 

Louisville +7 LOSS
Memphis +10.5 WIN
Louisiana Tech +13.5 LOSS
Michigan State +7 WIN
Virginia Tech +3 LOSS
Texas A&M +4 LOSS(This was just a terrible idea. 3 pick 6's didn't help)
Syracuse +7 WIN
Florida +7 PUSH
Arizona State +5 LOSS
Oregon +3 WIN

4-5-1 for the week. Not very good.

1. Louisville +7 @ Florida State: If you strictly at the numbers in this game, it looks like a bit of a mismatch, as FSU looks pretty strong in all categories and Louisville doesn't look particularly good in any category, especially on offense. Even defensively, which is supposed to be their calling card, the Cards have been only just ok. However, there is no comparison when you compare these two teams' schedules, and frankly, I was fooled by a major statistical edge against Louisville 2 weeks ago and got burned. The Noles have been awful against the spread since the beginning of last year, and are back on that train this year. In non-cupcake type games (spreads less than 10 points) they've failed to cover 7 in s row. On the flip side, Petrino has covered all 3 of his tilts as a road dog, and Louisville as a program is now 11-0-1 in it's last 12 in that role. I think the Noles dgood fortune might run out.

 
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2. @Memphis +10.5 v Ole Miss: Big rivalry here, at least for Memphis, as these campuses aren't too far from one another. The narrative is that Memphis has had this game circled since Justin Fuente was hired as HC 4 years ago. The Liberty Bowl will definitely be rockin' and Memphis has the weaponry to put some points on the board against a defense that has been adequate but not spectacular. The Tigers are a solid squad, having one of the longest winning streaks in the country at 12, and they are a perfect 5-0 this year. Although Ole Miss should see very little resistance from the Tigers D, I think they'll be trading scores all night. Although Memphis has played very weak defensive competition, they are still ranked 3rd. I think Ole Miss is a bit of a "paper tiger" living of their Bama win. Outside shot for an outright win here, and certainly an opportunity to hit the backdoor if the opportunity presents itself.
 
Would love to see MEmphis get the outright win. Great writeup on Ville...I really like the under there too
 
3. Louisiana Tech +13.5 @Mississippi State: I'm an equal opportunity fader of the Mississippi schools this week. Louisiana Tech can move the ball effectively in both phases as they have a stud running back in Kenneth Dixon and a capable QB in Jeff Driskill. They've already taken K State to triple overtime, and I show the stats comparison to be just about even. MSU is ok, but lacks the offensive playmakers to make a big difference and be able to handle a sizable spread against a solid squad like La Tech. This is MSU's homecoming, a sleepy 12 noon start. I think La Tech will give them everything they can handle. I'll take the points here.
 
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I like Louisville and will betting them, but it will probably be pretty small. When capping UM (sorry, Ole Miss), make sure you check the injuries. They say Memphis is the biggest city in Mississippi, and Ole Miss fans will be packing the stadium. No opinion on that one.
 
Gotcha MW....have to do it anyway....


4. Michigan State +7 @ Michigan: This game was at +8.5 just yesterday and it's falling fast. I understand how good Michigan has been and I know MSU has a lot of injuries, but this is pretty much an auto play for me. Michigan is the best defense in the country, and that is pretty much undisputed. They are first in ypp against, 1st in passer rating against, 2nd in 3rd down conversions and 2nd in rushing ypc. I also told myself that I wouldn't be on the wrong side again against Jim Harbaugh, but let's remember the teams that Michigan has built this gaudy defensive record against. Obviously, their defense has an effect on these numbers, but Utah is the best offense they've played, ranked 57th in the country in yards per play. The rest are ranked 73rd, 101st, 109th, 110th and 116th. This week they get Michigan state, who although banged up, is easily the best offense Michigan has played (36th) and features the best QB in the conference by far in Connor Cook. (12/2 ratio). Also, under Dantonio, in their last 19 Big Ten road games, the Spartans are 17-3 straight up and ATS(!!!!). The Spartens have been sleeping through the early part of their schedule, almost being outgained for the year, but this is a spot Dantonio specializes in, and they certainly know they are a TD dog as an undefeated top 5 team. Although I love what Michigan has done and have the ultimate respect for Harbaugh, I can't in good conscience pass this up. If Michigan blows them out, I'll tear a rotator cuff tipping my cap to them.
 
5. Virginia Tech +3 @ Miami(FL): Over the years, VT has been pretty good as a road dog..they've actually won 4 of their last 5 outright in that role including a 42-24 win at Miami 2 years ago as a 6 point dog. This one was higher earlier in the week, but I think the Hokies have a good shot at this one outright even if Michael Brewer doesn't play. Miami has been pretty good on offense, but VT is finally starting to hit it's stride defensively, pretty much dominating NC State's offense last week and holding Jacoby Brissett to 113 passing yards. Miami is coming off a very tough emotional loss to Florida State and now comes back to a half filled stadium with planes flying overhead with banners demanding their coach be fired. Their defense has been atrocious, ranked 112th in yards per play and 122nd against the run. Offensively, they've been ok, but their 113th in 3rd down conversions, and VT has been holding opposing offenses to only 32%, 31st best in the country. I think this one sets up pretty well for the Hokies, who are in their comfort zone in this spot.
 
6. Syracuse +7 @ Virginia: The Orangemen were awful last week, getting hammered by a quickly improving USF team under Willie Taggert when the public was ALL OVER them. Now they go back on the road to face a UVA team that almost certainly has already sealed the fate of their coach Mike London. UVA has actually had a couple nice performances in losses this year, but they are not the kind of team that should be a TD favorite in a situation like this. We know about their offensive struggles, which seem to have been the case for 20 years, but this year, they can't seem to stop anyone either. They're ranked 118th in defensive yards per play and 119th in passer rating against. Syracuse's problem hasn't been throwing the ball, surprisingly, as they are ranked 37th in passer rating on the year despite having 3 different guys taking snaps. Eric Dungey, their best option on the roster at QB is back from injury and despite the blowout last week, actually had pretty decnt numbers against a good pass defense in USF. Looking at the numbers, it looks like the wrong team is favored, so I'll take the TD, despite the public liking the Orange again this week.
 
7. @Texas A&M +4 v Alabama: When I look at this matchup on paper, the only major advantage is see for Alabama is their running game against A&M's rushing defense. Everywhere else to me looks like either a stalemate or an advantage for A&M. In the recent past, the Tide defense has struggled mightily with the spread offense, and Sumlin's crew has definitely victimized the Tide in the past, especially two years ago on this field when the Aggies piled up 628 yards but fell victim to some bad breaks at the end. This wasn't the case last year, as Bama destroyed A&M while they were in chaos and about to transition fully to Kyle Allen. You can bet that the Aggies remember that and they've had a week off to reminisce. They are much more capable to handle the Bama attack now that they have John Chavis calling the shots on defense and their offense is on par with that team two years ago, maybe even better because they can run the ball effectively. I think you'll see A&M's best performance, and now that Bama has reinstated themselves as everyone's "best overall team in the country' despite their loss, they are vulnerable to a subpar performance.
 
8. Florida +7 @ LSU: Typically, once we get far enough in the season, if a team is undefeated, they are pretty good...not a flash in the pan. Florida is obviously more than just a juiced up Will Grier away from the abyss of the last few years. Their defense remains solid, as it always has been, and Jim McElwain is obviously making a huge difference in their offensive know how. Unfortunately Will Grier is out now, but Treon Harris hasn't looked bad in limited duty and McElwain has had some time this week to coach him up. Leonard Fournette has been a Godzilla like existence this year, but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves...the only passable defense he's faced was Mississippi State (and they are no world beaters against the run), and he ran for 158 yards on 28 carries. Florida is better, so LSU will have to throw. Will they be able to do that? It's debatable against the best secondary in the SEC. I think this one comes down to the wire, so I'll take the 7.


9. Arizona St +5 @ Utah: This line is dropping maniacally..I don't know that i would take it any lower than 5, but I'll bite here. This one was closer to 7 just last night. Utah is living a charmed life...they were gifted 6 turnovers (5 Jared Goff INTs) last week at home against Cal and still had to sweat out the victory late. Now they face a much better defense and an improving offense when they have to come off the high of a Gameday crowd and go right back out on the home field and rev themselves up again. We should also remember that Todd Graham has never lost to the Utes, and that ASU has beaten Utah 10 times in a row. Utah also has USC on deck so it's a sandwich spot. Really tough situation for the Utes with an offense that can't really carry them. I wish I was getting a TD, but I think ASU has a great shot at the outright upset.
 
Br@ssknux said:
7. @Texas A&M +4 v Alabama: When I look at this matchup on paper, the only major advantage is see for Alabama is their running game against A&M's rushing defense. Everywhere else to me looks like either a stalemate or an advantage for A&M. In the recent past, the Tide defense has struggled mightily with the spread offense, and Sumlin's crew has definitely victimized the Tide in the past, especially two years ago on this field when the Aggies piled up 628 yards but fell victim to some bad breaks at the end. This wasn't the case last year, as Bama destroyed A&M while they were in chaos and about to transition fully to Kyle Allen. You can bet that the Aggies remember that and they've had a week off to reminisce. They are much more capable to handle the Bama attack now that they have John Chavis calling the shots on defense and their offense is on par with that team two years ago, maybe even better because they can run the ball effectively. I think you'll see A&M's best performance, and now that Bama has reinstated themselves as everyone's "best overall team in the country' despite their loss, they are vulnerable to a subpar performance.
Click to expand...

Just curious, but what bad breaks are you referring to for aTm 2 years ago? Alabama led that game by at least 2 scores for most of the last 2.5 quarters and A&M never had the ball with the opportunity to tie in the 2nd half. I agree that Manziel gave our team fits, but Allen is not JFF. I'm excited to see our defense today with the changes Saban/Smart have made to combat these types of offenses.

Good luck on the rest of your plays, love your write ups and this thread is a must read each week
 
great stuff as usual bknux, had similar thoughts on many, liking the dogs today and really appreciate your posts / write ups
 
gps_3 said:
Just curious, but what bad breaks are you referring to for aTm 2 years ago? Alabama led that game by at least 2 scores for most of the last 2.5 quarters and A&M never had the ball with the opportunity to tie in the 2nd half. I agree that Manziel gave our team fits, but Allen is not JFF. I'm excited to see our defense today with the changes Saban/Smart have made to combat these types of offenses.

Good luck on the rest of your plays, love your write ups and this thread is a must read each week
Click to expand...

Yeah, I think I kind of misspoke on that. I guess what I meant was that it was a tough break for the offense to average almost 9 yards per play against a top tier D and still get saddled with a loss.

I just remember the Sunseri INT, tipped ball, pick 6 (great return by Sunseri) as being kind of deflating. Also it was a very bad break that A&M's defense could not stop Alabama's offense. That counts, right? :tiphat:
 
CHSGTMD said:
great stuff as usual bknux, had similar thoughts on many, liking the dogs today and really appreciate your posts / write ups
Click to expand...

Shit, I guess I am all dogs today. Had some faves I kind of liked but backed off. Thanks for the kind words!
 
Gonna add one I forgot about:

10. Oregon +3 @Washington: This is a silly line in my opinion. I get that Oregon lost outright at home to Wazzou last week, (made me happy of course for those who follow along), but does anyone know the last time Oregon lost 2 in a row? I stopped looking when I got to 2010 and 9 straight up wins in a row, so it's been a long time. Oregon has won and covered 9 straight against UW with one push in there. They've been favored by an average of 17.5 points in those games and only game that Washington pushed was on a 37 point line. Now we've got the perfect storm of results from last week, a Duck loss to WAZZOU plus a Washington win at USC and here's our result. In my opinion, this is a pretty good matchup for Oregon because Browning and co are not the kind of offense that has been giving Oregon trouble (i.e. a good one), and with Vernon Adams back this week Oregon should be able to get back on track. I see this as a similar scenario to 2 weeks ago in Boulder for the Ducks. May too much overreaction to last week's result.
 
Others that I liked but backed off on. Who knows, I might add them later:

Oregon State +8
FAU +4 (line dropped too much for me to partake)
BC +17 (Couldn't bring myself to bet on a team that I couldn't reasonably expect 7 points from)
FIU +10.5
Rutgers +5.5 (Wanted a TD)
UNC -17 (Would have need to be where Kyle was ...14 range)
USC +4.5 (Lost 2 points of value in a hurry. Couldn't bring myself to do it.Watch them win now.)
 
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