Week 7 write-ups and hopefully feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Last week was 10-7-1 on the games I has extensive write ups on. Poor job by me of avoiding the huge favorites when I thought the dogs in those games were horrific matchups for the favorites. Whenever you're dealing with big spreads, way too many uncontrollables come into play, obviously. I'm not shedding any new light here.

Overall though, I liked the way the week went, as I was pretty much on the ball on most of the games, so I won't complain. On to this week. I'll add to this as I go.


1. @Miami(Fl) -14.5 v Cincinnati: Unfortunately for the Bearcats, they've established themselves as one of the worst defenses in the FBS, as they are ranked 122nd in defensive efficiency, 94th against the run and 125th against the pass. Everyone they've played has torched them, including a Memphis team that dropped 610 yards on them last week after barely cracking 100 the week prior at ole Miss. Offensively, Cincy's been good, but that's been mostly due to Gunner Kiel, who was injured in the Memphis game last week and is doubtful for this one. Munchie Legeaux is the backup, and although he has experience, he shattered his leg last year and understandably looked bad in his first action in the second half last week. If the Cincy offense struggles, which is likely without Kiel (canes 23rd against the pass) there's no way this Cincinnati defense will be able to keep it close, as the freshman QB has looked more and more comfortable every week.


 
2. @Minnesota -4 v Northwestern: Back to the well here. Somehow, despite giving up 284 rushing yard and 7.7 yards per carry against Wisconsin, Northwestern was able to get a win last week. It was mostly thanks to a 4/0 turnover ratio in their favor and some questionable play calling by the Badger coaching staff, who somehow decided calling 29 passes made sense despite having the 125th ranked pass offense. NW catches a break this week in the passing game too, as Minny isn't much better, but they'll run it down the Cats throats, and Jerry Kill isn't dumb enough to abandon the run at any point. Defensively, Minnesota has been strong and enjoys statistical edges over the Cats in both the run and pass games. I think the Cats are due to come back to earth after a couple games that the played over the heads.
 
(Deleted #3 Georgia due to the Gurley news. I have faith in Mr. Chubb, but the line hasn't moved as a result of the gurley loss, so I'm begging off that one.

4. @Georgia State +9 v Arkansas St: Here's a repeat of last week. Georgia State is a new team to FBS, so at this point, they are undervalued against more established teams in the Sun Belt. Last week it was La-La, this week it's Arkansas St. Last week GSU was a 17 point dog and had a chance to win the game in the last possession, falling by a FG. This week, the situation is very similar. Much like La-La, Arky State is a below average offense who doesn't figure to blow Georgia State off the field, and GSU has a pretty good offense, actually ranked 37th in offensive efficiency and with the ability to throw it effectively. Arky State has a better defense than La-La, but now the Panthers are at home, and still catching a significant amount of points. The line dropped from 13 to 9, but at this point, I still think there's value.
 
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5. @Ohio +1.5 v Bowling Green: Perhaps BG won't completely embarrass themselves on the road this time, but based on their previous road performances, I don't see how they can be trusted to lay points. Overall, BG is ranked 123rd against the run and 122nd against the pass. In overall defensive efficiency, they're 121st. They are dead last in every category by a mile in road games, and they find themselves in Athens this week. Now Ohio has been no world beater, but they do have competent numbers both passing and rushing, (63rd, 57th) and they are also doing fine defensively, ranking in the middle of the pack despite having played Marshall and Kentucky. I rate it almost a dead heat between the teams when BG has the ball, and no contest when the Bobcats have it. The wrong team is favored in my opinion.


6. Western Michigan -1 @ Ball State: I hate to be playing a bunch of MAC games, but we have another case of the wrong team being favored here(or was). WM has already won on the road at Idaho, and found a way to cover at Virginia Tech. Statistically, they are just better than Ball State at this point. Ball State is a well coached team under Pete Lembo in my opinion, but this year, they just haven't done anything right on either side of the ball. Lembo doesn't have a QB that can throw the ball right now...Ozzie Mann is not a D-1 QB. Defensively, they are surprisingly ranked 113th in overall efficiency and 118th(!!) against the run. WMU has been good offensively, as QB Zach Terrell has settled in (26th in FBS in pass efficiency) and they should be able to run it against Ball State. I think this line is based more on recent history than anything else, as BSU has been tough at home, but they've already lost at home Indiana State, and I don't think their offense will be good enough to hang with WMU here. It's a new year. *****LATE EDIT**** Line has moved to WMU -1. I'm still fine with it.
​
 
I love the weekly write-ups man keep up the excellent work!

I also love me some WMU this weekend at Ball State. Ball State has been very overrated this season (as has NIU - I was happy to snag CMU at +10.5 as it is now at 9). I think the line is very telling for who is the better team and I believe WMU is 5-0 in their last 5 ATS. Let's keep it moving for Saturday!

I ended up getting Georgia State at +10 I am pretty hopeful they will be able to cover the spread and I look for them get an early lead with a lot of back and forth throughout the game.

BOL this weekend!
 
What are your feelings on the possibilities of the new Ball State QB? Do you think he helps rally the team at home?
 
Element1 said:
What are your feelings on the possibilities of the new Ball State QB? Do you think he helps rally the team at home?
Click to expand...

That's a good question, but if it took him 6 weeks to beat out Ozzie Mann, then there's probably reasons for not playing him. I like Pete Lembo though. We'll see. I noticed that after I wrote this up, but Milas has a reputation of being a bit rock-headed. He was a decent recruit out of Rolling Meadows in the Northwest suburbs of Chicago though. Eventually he'll probably be the guy, but I'm not expecting much in his first start. Thanks for mentioning it!!
 
GWarner27 said:
you forgot to mention that Pinkel is braindead at times
Click to expand...

Indeed. That can't be debated. There's a helluva lot worse than him though. Almost all of them are brain dead at times. Saban included at CC pointed out clearly in the wrap up thread.
 
BOL Brass, I like ohio as well but I'm sure we are in the minority. I have Geo state at a better number but like them @ 9. I prefer the under with the nads but not against wmu although I like Lembo
 
Bull, mrob: Thanks :shake:


7. UMASS -1 @Kent St : I can't believe I keep playing these MAC games. Good Lord. I aslo probably need my head examined for playing ON a road favorite who has won a grand total of one road game since they came into FBS. However, in this case, I really think there's no doubt that UMASS is the better team between these two, and Kent will be forced to make a change at QB after starter Colin Reardon was injured last week. They also lost their only decent offensive player, RB Trayion Durham for the year after he spent the past 4 weeks in and out of the lineup. They are ranked at or near the bottom in every offensive category, and they're not much better on defense. They've had one flash of competence this year, and that was last week where they actually hung with a clearly disinterested NIU squad. UMASS had actually had quite a few brushes with competence, piling up points against the likes of Vandy and Colorado. They had Miami(OH) beat last week only to collapse down the stretch. I think they'll get it done this week against winless Kent, who I would assume will be deflated after losing their top 2 skill guys,.
 
8. Michigan State +21 @Purdue: I hope nobody was fooled by the mirage that took place in Champaign, IL last week, the one in which Purdue actually looked like a legitimate Big 5 conference team(500+ yards, 350+ rushing yards). What they did was face a team with a coaching staff that apparently has no earthly idea how to coach kids on the basics of containment, measured angles and position defense, nor the ability to shed a block or actually wrap up a ball carrier. Tim Beckman has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is completely overmatched...enough about Illinois...we're talking about MSU and Purdue. This week, Purdue will be in a role in which they are ill-suited, i.e. as a home underdog playing against an actual above average Big Ten defense. The last time they faced one(Iowa) they failed to crack 200 yards of offense and failed to cover despite Iowa's constant begging of them to do so. Michigan State will not be so kind, and they are every bit as good as Iowa on defense. They're also twice the offense Iowa is, sporting a bona fide passing and running game. Purdue's defense is not much better than their offense, and had Wes Lunt not gotten hurt, Illinois might have beaten them despite all of the warts I just mentioned. MSU will be eager to get the bitter taste of last week's near collpase against Nebraska out of their mouth, and Mark Dantonio is 14-3-1 as a road favorite in his tenure at Michigan State.
 
9. Oregon -2 @ UCLA: Brett Hundley might be a hell of a quaterback, maybe even a future top 5 draft pick, but he can't do anything if he's constantly terror stricken and running for his life. He has 5 cupcakes for offensive linemen, none of whom, apparently possessing the ability to bust a grape. UCLA is ranked dead last in the country in tackles for loss allowed, (10 per game!!). Oregon has not been great on defense since Nick Aliotti retired, but they are an aggressive bunch, ranking 16th in sacks and 11th in tackles for loss. Offensively, Marcus Mariota has to be salivating at the thought of facing a pass defense that allowed almost 500 yards passing to a guy making his first career start 2 weeks ago. Coming off a loss, I am betting that Oregon is in a better position competitively to do something about it than UCLA is
 
10. @Mississippi State +3 v Auburn: To me, these two teams look to be the most balanced in the conference, now that Auburn has started playing defense again. Statistically, these two teams come in at right about a dead heat, with Mississippi State perhaps having a slight edge in on both sides of the ball. These two teams are so close in my opinion that the home field and 3 points make all the difference. MSU's numbers are a little skewed because their games have had a little more garbage time than Auburn's....we have to remember that the final scores of the A&M and LSU games for State were much closer than the games. I'll take the home team catching points in this one, and don't forget that even when MSU was bad, they have always played Auburn tough in Starkville.


11. TCU +8 @Baylor: Obviously this is a dangerous play given the game TCU is coming off of, but last week was no stroll in the park for Baylor either, as they always relish beating Texas. There are times when Baylor's offense looks unstoppable,and there's times when it looks rather ordinary, much like last week. They only ended up with 379 total yards and only 111 passing. If the slants are covered, they really struggle to move the ball, and they certainly did last week, relying on a fake punt to get them one of their scores. Overall, their offensive numbers pale in comparison to last year, ranking 30th in rushing and 36th in passing. TCU is a similar outfit defensively to Texas, some might even say superior, so I think he chances are good for TCU to make Baylor look like the one we saw last week. Offensively, TCU showed some cajones last week by continuing to put pressure on the Oklahoma defense, one that has playmakers all over the field. I think that TCU knows that if they can pull this game out, they are in the definite driver's seat to the B12 crown. They'll give their best effort, and I don't know if Baylor's offense can measure up...at least THIS year's Baylor offense. I have a hunch that TCU wins this game.


12. Louisville +10 @Clemson: Clemson Freshman QB Deshaun Watson has been fabulous so far, but he will face easily his stiffest test of the year in this Louisville defense, currently ranked #1 in the country in defensive yards per play and rushing defense, and 3rd in passing efficiency. Watson has had his way with a couple of effeminate defenses from the triangle in the past 2 weeks, and got a couple of giftwrapped presents from NC State Jacoby Brissett in NC State's debacle of an effort against them last week. Louisville has been underwhelming offensively, but never count out Bobby Petrino, and they get their most important offensive player back this week in DeVante parker, who had missed the entire season so far with a broken foot. The longer this offense marinates under Petrino, the better off it's going to be, and I'm sure Petrino will have some wrinkles for the Clemson coaching staff this week.

 
Thanks Twink :shake:


14. Penn State +1 @Michigan: There's no reason to jump off the fade Michigan train at this point. I've been on it for 3 weeks, not as a rule per se, but because I liked each matchup for the opponent. I certainly wouldn't argue with a karma type play against them now, but I like the matchup here just like I have in previous weeks. I want to see Michigan try to move the ball on this defense, especially after they had a week off to stew about that Northwestern debacle two weeks ago. Penn State is ranked (long with Louisville) #1 in the country in run defense, 10th in yards per play and 19th against the pass. Michigan has not been bad defensively, but they have a weakness against the pass (Gary Nova threw for 400+ and a 4/0 ratio!!) so I think Hackenberg can get on track if he can find a receiver he's comfortable with. If Penn State plays it's game, Michigan will come crashing down again, and any poor start will kill them because the fans are ready to carry Hoke and the AD out of there on a rail. I also have some faith that Franklin doesn't allow his team to look as bad as it did two outings in a row.
 
15. FIU +12 @UTSA: If you can only muster 9 points on your home field against a defense like New Mexico's, there's no way in hell you should be a double digit favorite over a team with an actual decent defense like FIU. Believe it or not, in his advancing years Ron Turner has fashioned a pretty solid D down there in Boca or wherever FIU is. 36th in the country in defensive YPP, 19th in defensive efficiency, 19th against the pass....they're pretty good, and a HELL of a lot better than New Mexico, who completely shut down this punchless UTSA attack last week. It's been a difficult slog for UTSA offensively all year, so I don't see a magic turnaround this week. FIU will certainly struggle to move it on UTSA's perfectly competent defense, but as long as they can get a couple scores on the board and avoid some D/ST scores(which is something they've been very good at themselves) they should be able to keep it within the number.


16. @Arizona +3(buy) v USC: I can't for the life of me figure out why Arizona is not favored in this game. I'm so confounded by it, that I have to keep reminding myself that i don't need to justify covering a FG as I write this. All of this of course makes the bells and whistles go off, and I worry that I'm on the square side, but there's just too much evidence pointing to Arizona here. First, you don't worry so much about a let down from the Oregon win because the Wildcats have had 10 days to get past it, and they'r coming home to a game against a team that has had there way with them historically. I should point out, though, that the last 7 games in this series have all been within a TD, so it's not like USC has been beating the shit out of RichRod and the spit spewing Mike Stoops before that. USC is awful defensively, especially against the run, having been torched by the likes of BC and Arizona State. They also can't run the ball, and AZ has been good against the run(only 3.2 ypc against Oregon for example). USC will likely be throwing it, and that's bad for AZ because they've been bad against the pass, but they've been an aggressive defense, ranking highin sacks and tackles for loss, while USC is even worse than UCLA in TFL allowed, ranked 126th in the country! There's just too much pointing to a good effort for Arizona in this one, and I just don't think USC is good enough to overcome that. Again, the spread is a sucker bet, I am willing to admit that, but that's not going to stop me from playing what I think is easily justified as the value side.
 
17. Colorado St -2 @ Nevada: Another risk of a bad spot here, as Colorado State is coming off a couple of great performances, but again, the matchup advantages are too great to ignore. CSU has been one of the more balanced offensive squads in the country, ranking 18th in ypc and 44th in passer rating. Their overall offensive efficiency is 17th, so they are proving to be very well rounded. They'll have the advantage by a landslide over Nevada's stop unit, who has had all kinds of trouble getting off the field. On the other side of the coin, both the Nevada offense and CSU defense have been unremarkable, but not terrible. I just see a major mismatch when CSU has the ball, certainly big enough to handle 2 points.
 
Others: I kind of like New Mexico(+5) on Friday night, since they had some success on defense last week and San Diego State's backup QB looked atrocious last week in Fresno. If UNM can get their running game going, I like their chances to win that game....

Syracuse is catching 24.5 at home against Florida State. Syracuse has shit the bed in recent weeks, and they lost their QB, but FSU is totally banged up with Rashad Greene among others unlikely to play. It seems like a QB change might not be the worst thing that could happen for the Orange there, and is FSU is disinterested at noon in that dome, they might have a fight on their hands....

The spread continues to climb, and I swore off spreads above 24, but if you're ever going to do something like that, play Wisconsin -26.5. Beckman is terrible in conference and on the road ATS, and it's a double whammy here. Plus, we all know about the Illinois can't stop the run thing and Tim Beckman is overmatched, etc....

I like CMU(+10) getting significant points at NIU. NIU's offense has been sputtering, and they're talking about a 2 QB system, plus CMU has all of their skill guys back. Good chance for the outright there, but CMU is so inconsistent that I can't number it....

New Mexico State(+7.5) is getting 7.5 is some circles at Troy. I can't even find it on my offshore, so I didn't notice it until late, but NMSU has been a better team than Troy all year. Maybe this is another case of reputations being slow to change but this is the best team NMSU has had in 10 years, and probably the worst team in Troy's history. Troy is ranked 126th in total defense, and NMSU has put up some points this year....

UAB(6.5) has a significant edge over North Texas in just about every category. UNT can't move the ball to save their lives, and their defense hasn't been great either. UAB has some talent on offense and what appears to be a pretty resourceful scheme under new coach Bill Clark. UAB should roll, but sometimes McCarney can surprise you....

ECU(-16) should destroy South Florida, but I just don' have the heart to sweat out another big spread on them....

Houston(+8) is benching John O'Korn at Memphis, so I can't back a Greg Ward led offense, but Houston's defense has been very solid, so I don't see Memphis running away with this one. If I had any confidence that Houston could score, this would be a great spot for them with Memphis enjoying themselves in the mirror after blasting Cincy last week....

I hate to admit it, but the matchup is pretty good for Florida (+1.5) in their game with LSU. I can see a better effort out of LSU this week, but Florida stops the run and can run it competently, and LSU cannot stop the run(114th in ypc!!!!!!) nor can they throw it. Could be a 2 game winning streak for Muschamp, but i sure as hell ain't betting on that....

Read Dollaz' thread for any info you could ever hope for on the ODU/UTEP game, but the long and short of it is that UTEP's defense is an abomination. If ODU(+3) can beat Rice on the road, they certainly can score enough points on UTEP to get a win.....

I was extremely close to adding Ole Miss (+2) but the situation is just too negative for them this week. If not for that, I think they are better than A&M. That defense is going to shut A&M downand the Aggie defense isn't close to good enough to handle Good Bo Wallace. Also, it's not like Ole Miss played out of their minds last week. They were good on defense, but just ok on offense, and should have won going away if not for that horrific facemask missed call right before halftime. However, I'm fearful that good Bo Wallace takes a siesta and the OM defense is careless enough to allow Hill a couple big plays in the pass game. In that environment, I'd need more than 2, so I'm passing, although I think Ole Miss wins easily if they bring their A game....


That should just about do it for me. I appreciate any and all thoughts. Good luck to everyone this week.









 
Brass - Great job on your write-ups, wish you the BOL this week. I hear you about ECU and another big spread but USF just can't throw the ball very well and I don't see them being a threat to that defense. I hope ECU rolls and I have them at 14. Played their TT over last week though and got burned because they just couldn't get off the field on defense and give their O enough possessions. I'm opposite on Clemson, but you make good points about the Louisville defense and Parker's return.
 
Timh said:
Brass - Great job on your write-ups, wish you the BOL this week. I hear you about ECU and another big spread but USF just can't throw the ball very well and I don't see them being a threat to that defense. I hope ECU rolls and I have them at 14. Played their TT over last week though and got burned because they just couldn't get off the field on defense and give their O enough possessions. I'm opposite on Clemson, but you make good points about the Louisville defense and Parker's return.
Click to expand...

Yeah Timmy I was dumb enough to lay 41 last week, which should never be done. ECU is probably the right side there, even up to 20 or so, but I just have no appetite for laying more than about 14 tight now. As for Clemson, I think Watson is due for a clunker, and Louisville is a huge class jump over the defenses he's seen the last 2 weeks. The more Petrino can work with that offense, the better it will be IMO. I might get killed, and I've had some bad luck on Clemson, but I think Louisville is the value side there. BOL to you too.
 
Elbutre88 said:
gl brass. w/you on uga. oppo on clemson, but it looks like the money movers agree with you.
Click to expand...

Might not be on Georgia now Elbie. Gurley was the major reason that I felt UGA could move the ball. Probably going to back out of that one now if I can.
 
Took Georgia out. Although I like Chubb as a RB, I don't trust Mason to carry the mail for Georgia so backed out of that one.
 
Share a few with ya and against ya on a few but hope you having a winning day tomorrow

GREAT line shopping on the Michigan St game. Pretty sure you win that one
 
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