Week 7 with Marsski (and Inside the Line)

Marsski

Marsski

MAC Marvel
NCAA 20-18, +1.18
Multi-sport bets 0-1, -0.5 units
NFL 7-3, +3.2


Taking Bama off 3 straight failed covers...think we see Saban in ruthless mode with Mizzou

Bama -27.5

All bets 1 unit unless otherwise noted.

Saturday card:

Noon Northwestern -6
Noon The OSU -29.5
Noon Toledo -1.5
12:20 Duke +2
3:30 ML parlay: App St/NIU (-102)
3:30 NIU -4
3:30 C Fla -5.5 (-115)
3:30 Oregon +3.5 (-120)
7:00 Iowa State +7
7:00 Bama -27.5
7:30 Multi-Sport parlay: Brew Crew +1.5 runs (Game 1)/MTennSt ML .4 units to win 1.2
7:30 Michigan -7 (-120)
10:15 Hawaii +14 (-115)

Updated 26-24, +0.43, multi -0.9


Pros:
Falcons -3
Browns +2
 
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Extra prep week for Duke and they always plays the option tough with Cutcliffe. Duke held Army to 158 rush yards earlier this yr.

Duke season-high 500 yards on Tech last year and has won SU 3 of last 4 years.They got Daniel Jones back now as well...
 
Ya hard to not back Duke though this is probably the best version of the option that Duke has seen since they started defending it so well. Still, it has to be bet I think, particularly when the Duke passing game should eat up that GT secondary.
 
I already bet TOSU as well.

The weakness for Tosu is obvious ... the secondary. But that doesn't matter much against Minnesota, the way it did against Indiana. How many TD passes to Ramsey miss that game?? That could have been a nail biter late with some better long balls from that kid. Wide, wide, wide, wide open guys against that TOSU secondary. And those kids are still taking terrible angles.

But I don't think Minnesota can take advantage of that.
 
RetroVK said:
I already bet TOSU as well.

The weakness for Tosu is obvious ... the secondary. But that doesn't matter much against Minnesota, the way it did against Indiana. How many TD passes to Ramsey miss that game?? That could have been a nail biter late with some better long balls from that kid. Wide, wide, wide, wide open guys against that TOSU secondary. And those kids are still taking terrible angles.

But I don't think Minnesota can take advantage of that.
Click to expand...

That secondary was trash in the first half, only 81 yards in the second half once OSU started getting pressure. Pryor being out in the first half at safety didn't help. They also rotated Shaun Wade #24 at safety for the first time in the second half and it got better.

I think OSUs secondary is going to be a work in progress week to week but--as you say--is Minny's QB really going to take advantage? He's not very accurate and all of his good WRs are freshmen. Second road start for him and the first one was MD 42-13. They probably lost their two best players, Antoine winfield and RB Smith for the year. Minnesota's OL is going to have problems blocking O State. I think OSU will steamroll them and the secondary problems will seem fixed, but they won't be.
 
RetroVK said:
Ya hard to not back Duke though this is probably the best version of the option that Duke has seen since they started defending it so well. Still, it has to be bet I think, particularly when the Duke passing game should eat up that GT secondary.
Click to expand...

Agree. Jones being back pushed me off the fence.
 
McDonald practiced today for Hawaii, grabbed the 14 on the news....value if he goes Saturday night, probably about right if he doesn't

ADD:

Hawaii +14 (-115)
 
My column will be out soon. Here's a few quick thoughts on the ones I didn't include in it...

Toledo -1.5

E Michigan can't get over the hump and Toledo has won 11 straight in this series. Toledo has too much offense for EMU and Peters showed last week he's a capable back-up. Take away EMU's fluky win over Purdue (4 fumbles) and all they have done this year is lose close games. I'll take the MAC West bully here....

Michigan -7

This Michigan D is for real and I don't trust the noodle arm QB for Wisky. Injury report looked bad for the Badgers as well. Michigan at home as a favorite is a good spot for them. Wisky is fraudulent.

Iowa State +7

Not buying WVU yet, who have they played? Campbell is a great coach as a home dog and they just keep plugging in QBs that play well. Montgomery could be back and that would be huge. Ames will be rocking.

Oregon +3.5

Herbert has been impressive and I think Washington is overrated. Something is wrong with Browning, he doesn't zip it downfield the same. Autzen is a very tough place to play.

C Fla -5.5

Got a bad number but I don't think it matters. UCF hasn't missed a beat without Frost and this game has been circled for a statement. If Memphis can't handle Tulane what's going to happen here?

Hawaii +14

McDonald is going to go and I think that BYU will have problems stopping the pass. Back door should be wide open if I need it...

NW -6

Obviously should have waited. I don't get why the whole world is on Nebraska. They suck. I think Nebraska is in turmoil and I don't think they get it turned around on the road. Special teams are a total disaster for Nebraska and I wouldn't be surprised if several special teams plays go NW's way...
 
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