Week 7 stuff with my half-witted analysis

[Br@ssknux]

Remember guys that this is taken from an email I send to a bunch of buddies each week. I'll be piece mealing it out here as I finish:


Thanks for your feedback.

1. @Michigan State -10 v Indiana: Everyone was impressed with IU's win at home against Penn State, and I was especially impressed with how well they held up on the defensive end. Penn State is no pushover offensively, especially with Bill O'Brien manning the sidelines. However, this will be a different animal for the Hoosiers this week, and typically, IU can't deal with prosperity. This MSU defense is legit, and in their backyard, I expect the Spartans to play well. MSU picked up some confidence last week on the offensive side of the ball, and that came against one of the better defenses in the Big Ten. Was last week an aberration? Perhaps, but if Indiana football history is any guide, the Hoosier defense will give Cook any reason it can find to keep his momentum rolling. If IU walks into East Lansing and plays things to a standstill, God love 'em. I doubt that happens.

2. Nebraska -13.5 (buy if necessary) @ Purdue: The fade Purdue train continues. As long as a team is ranked worse than 100th in D-1 in every category that I look at , both on offense and defense, I'm fading them. That's the case here. Purdue can't run it, can't throw it, can't convert a third down, can't stop the run, can't stop the pass, can't force a turnover, and can't can't get off the field on third down. That's a bad combination, and even though Nebraska is highly suspect on defense, Purdue does not have the chops to take advantage. Offensively, Nebraska should have an even easier time with things than they did last week with Illinois, as Purdue is significantly worse on defense than the Illini, believe it or not. Purdue makes some changes offensively this week off the bye, going with a freshman QB who had some success 2 weeks ago in garbage time against NIU, but I'm guessing he'll commit a couple head slappers ending with Nebraska DBs streaking downfield for scores.

3. @Virginia Tech -8 v Pitt: Another favorite, which I don't like, but when there's value, you take it. VT walked into Heinz Field last year and got their heads handed to them, 35-17 and it wasn't that close. National TV game too. Now VT stands waiting for the Panthers in a tough venue with a much better D than Pitt faced this year. Pitt has had some success on offense this year, but not when they've played any defenses with a pulse. They gained 297 yards against in week one against Florida St, and had an anemic effort against another decent defensive squad in Virginia a couple weeks ago in which they gained a total of 199 yards and Tom Savage got thrown around like a rag doll for 57 yards lost in sacks. That helped result in a 8 yards on 35 rushes performance, and that was at home. For the year Pitt is ranked 117th in the country in sacks allowed, while VT is 2nd in sacks. Hmmmmm. I see a loooong day for Pitt's offense, especially when VT is going to be ready for them to make up for that embarrassment last year.

4. Memphis +10 @ Houston: I notice that i might be the only person in North America on the Tigers here, and I must admit I'd feel a bit better with a few more points, but there's value here. Houston comes in at 4-0, while Memphis is 1-3. Despite their record, Memphis has been playing some great ball lately, evidenced most by their game last week vs UCF in which they outgained the Knights by 123 yards only to lose on a couple of unbelievably bad breaks. Check the game story, no time to get into it here. They've held their last 3 opponents to les than 300 yards, and have been on a bit of a roll lately on offense. Under Justin Fuente, this team has been steadily improving, and as I mentioned, their defense is no joke, ranking 11th in YPP, 14th against the run and 26th in pass efficiency defense. Now they face Houston, 4-0 despite not really playing anyone. They start a true freshman at QB, who has had some pretty decent games against the likes of Rice and UTSA, but now he faces am actual competent defense. There's no way a 4-0 Houston team gives a 1-3 Memphis team it's A effort, regardless of houw much Houston's coaches will be telling them that this isn't your older brother's Memphis. I think there's a nice shot for the outright here, given the circumstances.


More coming....

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. @Arkansas +5 v South Carolina: Bret Bielema is eventually going to make his presence felt down South, and I think this is the week he does it. SC and Arkansas play each other every year as a guarantee crossover game in the SEC since they came into the league at about the same time. For most of this period, South Carolina has been getting it's asses kicked when they make the trip to Fayetteville. Although they lost and failed to cover at Florida last week, I thought there was evidence that the Arkansas offense continues to improve, and now they face a defense that has underachieved like crazy this year. South Carolina is 57th overall in yards per play and 99th(!!) against the pass in passer efficiency rating. Although running is Arkansas forte, Brandon Allen is competent enough to burn the Gamecocks. It's also pretty clear that South Carolina lacks leadership on it's defense, as I've mentioned before, and the whole Clowney thing is just a big mess. The Cocks keep jumping out to big leads and then lose interest against shit offenses (Vandy, Kentucky) resulting in close games. If they aren't engaged in this one, they risk what has been a familiar fate for them in Fayetteville.

6. @Maryland -5.5 v Virginia: After getting completely embarrassed last week, I think Maryland will bounce back, even if CJ Brown can't go. Virginia is a team that is losing momentum by the week, and it looks like Mike London might not survive. Sinking ships are never a good bet, and Virginia appears to be one. Offensively, they are atrocious, with no ability to pass at all and tons of struggles running it. Despite what happened last week, Maryland is a good defensive squad, having completely shut down West Virginia and handled all the non-FSU dreck on their schedule. At home, back in their comfort zone, I think they will give Virginia nothing offensively, and the Terps should be able to get enough done on offense to win by at least a score. Backup QB Rowe is no Brown, but he has enough weapons(Diggs, especially) to have a competent performance.

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. Florida +7.5 @LSU: When I first looked at this one, the line appeared to me to be a bit low, and I think all of my gambling brethren agree wholeheartedly with that assessment, based on some of the bet percentages I've seen. However, in my opinion, this game is going to come down to the wire. Of all the matchup categories I look at, I don't have a single one where LSU has the advantage. Obviously, the home field, and some other intangibles favor LSU, but i can't see any numbers that do. LSU's defense, especially their run defense, leaves a lot to be desired. They also are prone to some bonehead coverage errors(join the club in today's CFB). Also, you'd probably be surprised to learn that Florida is ranked 18th in country in pass efficiency and that number has only gotten better since Tyler Murphy has taken over. Defensively, Florida is probably the top squad in the country, and my guess is that they will test Mettenberger's ability to move. He's good in the pocket, but starts looking like Zach Mettenberger when he gets flushed out. It's strength against strength for the most part in this game, and I think Florida's defense might make the difference. I don't know that Mettenberger can carve up a truly great defense like Florida's, and I don't think this LSU defense is one that can completely shut people down like previous versions. More than a TD is too much in this one.

8. Baylor -17 @ Kansas St: Although K State is not a team you want to fade when Bill Snyder is a dog, this game kind of reminds me of their game with Oklahoma in Manhattan a couple years ago when Landry Jones came in there and sliced them up to the tune of a 58-17 score and a 400 yard advantage. That K State team was coached by Snyder, had Colin Klein and all his hustling intangibles and was a 13 point dog. And I was on them in a heartbeat. "You can't dog Bill Snyder like that", I said. Well, when the talent gap is really really wide and you're facing a scheme that is pretty much unstoppable when it gets going, it doesn't matter how smart your coach is. Baylor is simply an irresistible force right now. They are averaging a yard and a half more per play than Oregon. Think about that. Also, other than garbage time, nobody can get a first down against their defense. Long day for the Kitties I'm afraid.

 

[jk16]

Great stuff. Thanks Brassnux!

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. @Wisconsin -10(buy it if necessary) v Northwestern: This is a damn tall order for Fitzy and the Cats after that game last week against Ohio St. Going to Madison requires maximum effort, focus, what have you, and although Fitzy would be the guy to do it, even if that happens, how is Northwestern going to stop that running game? They are ranked 64th in the country against the run, not terrible, but not anywhere close to stop the 3 headed monster up there. Wisconsin is coming off a bye after a tough loss to the Buckeyes themselves, so the Cats are likely to get their best effort. Another factor here is that the Badgers are highly competent on defense, ranked 10th overall in ypp against. The last time Northwestern traveled up there, they had a pretty good squad and got trounced 70-23. Typically, you don't want to fade the cats when they're dogged, or really in any case at all recently, but I think the matchup and situation for them here is very difficult. Give Fitzy a lifetime contract is he pulls this one out.

10. @Penn State +3 (if you wait) v Michigan: This line is up to 3 in some spots...not mine so I'm waiting, but I'll play it at 2.5 as well. I was expecting to get more line value with Penn State but I think they are going to win this one outright. the situation is good for them, returning home after a terrible loss to indiana that wasn't as bad as it looked. Everyone expects Michigan to go in to Happy valley and exert their will, but what the hell is their will? Scratching out a road win against a team so horrible it had to fire their coach last week? Sneaking by an Akron team that just lost 43-3 to Ohio U? Having their QB throw multiple pick 6's and throw the ball backwards over his head in the end zone for a defensive TD? You get the picture. Expecting Michigan to go to HV in front of 100k+ and trounce Penn State based on their recent body of work is a bit of a stretch. I guess it can happen, but they are overdue for a loss, and I think they get one this week.

11. Rice -1 @UTSA: This is more of a gut feel, although Rice has the statistical edge too. The Owls just find a way to win conference games, and UTSA is definitely not at the point where they are in that position. They are still finding ways to come up short. maybe Skeletor Coker might be able to instill that in them over time, but despite a pretty nifty offense, they aren't winning these kind of games. Rice gets back their RB Charles Ross this week too.


12. @Mississippi St -11 v Bowling Green: In their "layup" games this year, MSU has been impressive, hammering both of their non conference foes, including a pretty good Troy team 62-7. I understand why BG has garnered some respect, as their defense enjoys a good reputation for bullying MAC squads around, but a closer look indicates that they really aren't all that great. They are 88th against the run, and MSU is capable of running it with Dak Prescott in Mullen's offense. In their last foray against a competent offense, Indiana absolutely carved them up(601 yards) and they only dented the scoreboard for 10. Since then they've beaten up on the UMasses and the Akrons of the world, but I don't think they've done anything to suggest they can hang in this game.

13. Texas A&M -6.5 @ Ole Miss: Again, believe it or not, I like Ole Miss, but they are in another bad spot. Defensively, they have really struggled, so in order to hang in this game, they are going to have to trade scores with Johnny Football, and I'm sorry, as much as I want to like Bo Wallace, he is just not good enough. Despite all the weapons he has, Ole Miss is 82nd in yards per play, 89th in pass efficiency and 89th in converting 3rd downs. They are going to be on the wrong side of some major disadvantages on the other side of the ball, as they can't stop the run to save their lives, so they'll need a ton of points. A&M is terrible against the run, so they might have some success there, (maybe using Bernetti as a running option) but they'll need to throw it and convert on 3rd down to hang, and I don't think they can. Once they get a solid QB in there though, watch out.

14. Colorado +26.5 @ Arizona St: I typically don't like to fade ASU in the desert, but this is a spot in which Colorado is highly unlikely to get their A game. They are coming off Notre Dame with a home game with Washington on deck. Even if they do play well, they are 110th in the country in total defense. If you want to cover 26.5 points, you better be able to stop someone. Colorado is not good, but they've already faced better offenses than ASU(Oregon, for one) and have shown the ability to be explosive on offense with Paul Richardson. They haven't been good defensively, but they've been better than ASU. I just think a bad defense with a good chance of just showing up might have a hard time covering this number.

15. Oregon St pk V Washington State: Oregon state's offense has been among the best in the country so far this year, and their passing game has been about as good as you can ask. They are leading the country in TD passes and Sean Mannion has a 21/2 ratio. WR Brandin Cooks is leading the country in receptions and yards per game. WAZZOU has been ok on defense, but I think this will be a stiff test for them out on the Paloose. I remain a major skeptic of QB Connor Halliday despite his competent numbers. he can't make the throws necessary to win tough games, and I think that will show in this game. Neither team can run it, so the passing game will make the difference here, and in my opinion, OSU has a major edge there on both sides of the ball.

others: I see the draw to Missouri, since Georgia(-7) is so banged up, but this is Mizzou's first ever trip to Athens, and i think the Dawgs will have enough for them to cover the 7. Good situation for UGA coming back home, and Mizzou is on the second straight roadie.....Oklahoma(-14) should blow out a flimsy, effeminate Texas squad, but OU has burned me on these types of spreads lately, so I can only half heartedly recommend it...Clemson(-23.5) will probably have their spread against BC covered by halftime, but these types of games lose on the backdoor sometimes...I badly wanted to include Washington(+14) since I love their squad and I suspect that home crowd might be worth as much as any home crowd in the country, but I can't go against Oregon in that spot. Defensively, I think Washington will be ok, I just see them having a hard time keeping pace due to Oregon's strength on defense. If I played totals, I would be ALL OVER the under (75)....I like Stanford(-9) to handle Utah. I think Utah shot their wad against UCLA last week.....Don't be stunned if Georgia Tech(+7) beats BYU. That's it for now.

 

[kobe911]

Great read br@ss!

 

[Schrute]

enjoyed reading your thoughts

GL this week Brass

 

[ManchesterUk]

:shake:

 

[s--k]

Good thread.

Not my personal insight, but I've heard that IU's O works best vs zone D, Mich St runs man and could be a tricky matchup for them.

On some, against others, lean your way on a few. I like Memphis too, but line has had shit knocked out of it. Might end up on Buffs too. Hope today does well for you.

 

[Play2win]

agree on a few, BOL

 

[RetroVK]

gl today brass

 

[Fondybadger]

Great read. Thanks

 

[Marlo]

excellent stuff here, thank you for this

 

[Br@ssknux]

Thanks for the feeddback all. S--k, Memphis, LOL. If these guys could find a way to avoid absolutely shooting themselves in the foot every game, they would actually be something. Coughed it up 3 times in the first half. Thanks for the MSU thoughts as well.

 

[HookedOnUT1]

Thanks for the feeddback all. S--k, Memphis, LOL. If these guys could find a way to avoid absolutely shooting themselves in the foot every game, they would actually be something. Coughed it up 3 times in the first half. Thanks for the MSU thoughts as well.

Brass, love the analysis. I was the other person in North America with you on the Tigers, and man, I guess a push is better than a loss, but it's tough not to cash on them. On a bunch of your picks (including ones that have already hit), and against you on none. Always a great feeling. Good luck the rest of the day!

 

[Toronto_Mike]

half witted analys are gold!
keep it up

 

[Br@ssknux]

Hooked.....did you see all the shit that had to go wrong for Memphis for that thing to push?? They are totally snakebitten, but a lot of times it's their own fault. Dropped passes, stepping out of bounds with nobody around you, etc. That defense is good though. Houston really didn't do anything against them other than hit a couple lucky passes. Should've cashed, but what can you do. Same with Florida. They had a ton of chances to win that game IMO, or at least to get the late score for the cover. Cooled off after a hot start.

Also, can someone explain to me why Art Briles only attempted 19 passes today? Seems to me that if you're averaging 16 yards per attemot, you might want to keep throwing it. Big fan of Art, but come on, man.

 

[HookedOnUT1]

Hooked.....did you see all the shit that had to go wrong for Memphis for that thing to push?? They are totally snakebitten, but a lot of times it's their own fault. Dropped passes, stepping out of bounds with nobody around you, etc. That defense is good though. Houston really didn't do anything against them other than hit a couple lucky passes. Should've cashed, but what can you do. Same with Florida. They had a ton of chances to win that game IMO, or at least to get the late score for the cover. Cooled off after a hot start.

Also, can someone explain to me why Art Briles only attempted 19 passes today? Seems to me that if you're averaging 16 yards per attemot, you might want to keep throwing it. Big fan of Art, but come on, man.

Agree with all of your points, and unfortunately on those, we wound up 1-2. Need a hot nightcap to make up for a down day (was big on OU).