Week 7 props discussion/plays

2daBank

2daBank

2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Not going back out of town til next week and been super busy so really I’m just getting started on the card. Havnt even bet anything to post yet but working on it now so thought I’d get this started, thanks to everyone who been contributing! Plays to come.
 
Friday night:

Dupree (col st) ov 58.5 rush yards. Dude getting double digit carries every week., really don’t have any kind of great grasp on this game but some these Colorado st players have some seriously low numbers for what I’d expect guys who gonna have plenty of opportunity, think I like the next one even more.

Brousseau (col st) over 152.5 passing yards.,. Assuming the spread to be believed at some point they should be trailing and wow is this a low ass bar!! He threw for 188 when his team scored 3 points, got over this last week as well despite not playing the entire game. Assuming they don’t switch qbs it just a really easy number to hit.

Brown (usf) ov 62.5 rush yards., super high total in a game that screams shootout, he consistently taking off 15+ times and there no reason to think this game isn’t very competitive, not sure how that happens without him flying over this?
 
Damn I kinda like a lot for a Friday night but all those kinda small-ish.

Boston (udub) ov 79.5 rec yards:, The way to beat Rutgers thru the air, I have little doubt huskies will be able to throw all over them. Kinda like the qb passing yards also but I have to draw line somewhere!!

Mestemaker (unt) ov 257.5 passing. Just playing a number on a super high total and I think usf run d is better than the pass d. Think this pinball game.
 
Arch manning )Tex) over 16.5 rush yards. This is kinda insane, granted I understand he is most likely gonna take some sacks, that said we have seen it in every game against real competition he gonna take off and try to make plays with his legs. Sooners do have the highest sack rate in the country so we see, there just no way I’m not playing this number.
 
2daBank said:
Arch manning )Tex) over 16.5 rush yards. This is kinda insane, granted I understand he is most likely gonna take some sacks, that said we have seen it in every game against real competition he gonna take off and try to make plays with his legs. Sooners do have the highest sack rate in the country so we see, there just no way I’m not playing this number.
Click to expand...
GL. The OU defense is the issue here, just with the sacks. As you said.

Do we ever see QB rush attempts o/u?
 
B.A.R. said:
GL. The OU defense is the issue here, just with the sacks. As you said.

Do we ever see QB rush attempts o/u?
Click to expand...

I’ve never saw it for ncaa that I recall, I assume cause sacks count as rush attempts it be a tough number for them to set. Love the idea, it possible I’ve never really looked but id think I have, lol., think he took 6 sacks vs gators last week and still ended with 37 yards, of course I think he was well over 50 at one point. Ou d front is prob better than gators but seems crazy to expect more than 6 sacks, they did hold Arnold to nothing on ground but think that situation was different. If arch held to minus yards so be it, I just have to play him this low, sacks be damned.
 
Nico Iamaleava (ucla) ov 213.5 pass yards., I debated a lot here between his rush or pass yards, since the coaching change he has cleared his rush total both games easily and has yet to throw for 200. Maybe I’m screwing up here cause I do believe he can get the 50+ he needs to cash the rush prop. Playing his pass yards is more just the fact everyone is throwing all over sparty, sparty run d been solid but they havnt really faced a scrambling qb, it just the pass d allowing 8 per pass and over 250 a game, combined with the line saying ucla should be trailing (even tho im not sure I buy this), just don’t think this number is that big a ask.

Amad hardy (mizzou) ov 96.5 rush. I don’t love playing rush totals this high real often but I think it warranted here. Mizzou has become the best rush offense in the country and hardy has went for 100+ every game. There no doubt he gonna get 20+ carries, that pretty much a given. I think bama run d a question and they havnt faced a running back centric rush attack anywhere close to this yet this season, several backs getting limited carries have broke off a big run vs them, with hardy getting chance after chance in a scheme designed for success I think if this line to be believed and this game close hardy has to have another big game.

Desean bishop (Vols) ov 62.5 rush yards., I’d expect the Vols offense can do anything they want here. Pick your poison, the qb, your fav wr, or in this case the back I’m confident will get dd touches. Like the running game here cause I assume the spread to be correct here and think Vols have a decent size lead in the 4th and are looking to close the game out. There a good chance I have a few more plays in this game, this just the one I jumped on 1st.
 
2daBank said:
I’ve never saw it for ncaa that I recall, I assume cause sacks count as rush attempts it be a tough number for them to set. Love the idea, it possible I’ve never really looked but id think I have, lol., think he took 6 sacks vs gators last week and still ended with 37 yards, of course I think he was well over 50 at one point. Ou d front is prob better than gators but seems crazy to expect more than 6 sacks, they did hold Arnold to nothing on ground but think that situation was different. If arch held to minus yards so be it, I just have to play him this low, sacks be damned.
Click to expand...
Yeah Manning took 2 sacks on the last drive that went nowhere and lost 14 yards so I lost my alt line bet by 3 yards.
 
2daBank said:
Nico Iamaleava (ucla) ov 213.5 pass yards., I debated a lot here between his rush or pass yards, since the coaching change he has cleared his rush total both games easily and has yet to throw for 200. Maybe I’m screwing up here cause I do believe he can get the 50+ he needs to cash the rush prop. Playing his pass yards is more just the fact everyone is throwing all over sparty, sparty run d been solid but they havnt really faced a scrambling qb, it just the pass d allowing 8 per pass and over 250 a game, combined with the line saying ucla should be trailing (even tho im not sure I buy this), just don’t think this number is that big a ask.

Amad hardy (mizzou) ov 96.5 rush. I don’t love playing rush totals this high real often but I think it warranted here. Mizzou has become the best rush offense in the country and hardy has went for 100+ every game. There no doubt he gonna get 20+ carries, that pretty much a given. I think bama run d a question and they havnt faced a running back centric rush attack anywhere close to this yet this season, several backs getting limited carries have broke off a big run vs them, with hardy getting chance after chance in a scheme designed for success I think if this line to be believed and this game close hardy has to have another big game.

Desean bishop (Vols) ov 62.5 rush yards., I’d expect the Vols offense can do anything they want here. Pick your poison, the qb, your fav wr, or in this case the back I’m confident will get dd touches. Like the running game here cause I assume the spread to be correct here and think Vols have a decent size lead in the 4th and are looking to close the game out. There a good chance I have a few more plays in this game, this just the one I jumped on 1st.
Click to expand...
FWIW, I played Nico over 54.5 rush yds

I wanna play Hardy but I have not pulled the trigger yet.
 
He Hate Me said:
FWIW, I played Nico over 54.5 rush yds

I wanna play Hardy but I have not pulled the trigger yet.
Click to expand...

I think I’m gonna end up playing Nico rush also, I hate it cause I feel like it gonna split but I also don’t wanna just be on his passing while he runs for 100! 🤣. The pass prop is totally a fade of sparty pass d, I’d think at some point teams gonna see how much he running since the coaching change, if Sparty makes any kind of effort to limit that I think he could smash the pass number. Don’t think sacks should be a huge concern here so def don’t see anything wrong with his rushing.

Hardy just comes down to if you believe Mizzou has a chance in this game? It’s been painfully obvious for years this the offense Drinkowitz wanted, even when their strength was the qb arm and wr’s they still had to be forced into passing. Now they been the best rush team in the country, hardy getting 20+ carries every game. I just don’t see a world he doesn’t get 25ish rushes here. Bama has given up some chunk runs. If he pops one for 30-40 think he clears 100 with ease. If bama holds him under this might as well bet bama imo.

What else you looking at?
 
He Hate Me said:
Yeah Manning took 2 sacks on the last drive that went nowhere and lost 14 yards so I lost my alt line bet by 3 yards.
Click to expand...

I missed an alt also and had no idea why I didn’t cash! I stopped paying much attention after he cleared 50, couldn’t believe how dangerously close he got to the regular number!! Sacks def scare me today but fuck that a crazy low number, I’m incredibly confident at least one time he gets loose for a 20+ run, just be a matter of his other 7-10 runs get enough yards to negate the sacks, pretty confident he will continue taking off 10+ times against legit defenses.
 
Love this one:

Ben gulbranson (Stanford) ov 225.5 pass yards., Smu pass d has been pretty awful, think it a given trees gonna have to be throwing early and often in this game. Cuse crappy backup threw for 275, Missouri st qb racked up 275!! I really don’t see a world where he doesn’t smash this number.
 
Really play the bama qb under but little torn cause we know they gonna throw a bunch. I’m sure he have some success but 280s pretty high considering I think he be more uncomfortable than usual, he went for 276 at Uga, I’m having a hard time thinking he exceeds that simply cause I think Mizzou will most likely control the rock more.
 
Donte Moore (ducks) ov 238.5 passing. He cleared this at pen st, I just don’t see a world he doesn’t clear this at home in a game I suspect he really stamps his heisman campaign! Think Hoosiers will have enough success to ensure he throwing to win this game.

Underwood (Mich) ov 178.5 passing.. the concern is Michigan runs all over usc and just bullies them so much he doesn’t need to throw: that said I do think the usc offense will have some success and I believe the run game will open up some big plays in the passing game for Michigan. Should probably hear @B.A.R. Thoughts on this, like Michigan as dogs also.
 
2daBank said:
I think I’m gonna end up playing Nico rush also, I hate it cause I feel like it gonna split but I also don’t wanna just be on his passing while he runs for 100! 🤣. The pass prop is totally a fade of sparty pass d, I’d think at some point teams gonna see how much he running since the coaching change, if Sparty makes any kind of effort to limit that I think he could smash the pass number. Don’t think sacks should be a huge concern here so def don’t see anything wrong with his rushing.

Hardy just comes down to if you believe Mizzou has a chance in this game? It’s been painfully obvious for years this the offense Drinkowitz wanted, even when their strength was the qb arm and wr’s they still had to be forced into passing. Now they been the best rush team in the country, hardy getting 20+ carries every game. I just don’t see a world he doesn’t get 25ish rushes here. Bama has given up some chunk runs. If he pops one for 30-40 think he clears 100 with ease. If bama holds him under this might as well bet bama imo.

What else you looking at?
Click to expand...
I am deciding between the Hardy rush prop and the Mizzou ML. I am leaning towards the Mizzou ML

I am waiting to see some injury news for Virginia Tech and I may play a rush prop depending on the news.
 
He Hate Me said:
I am deciding between the Hardy rush prop and the Mizzou ML. I am leaning towards the Mizzou ML

I am waiting to see some injury news for Virginia Tech and I may play a rush prop depending on the news.
Click to expand...

I feel way better bout hardy just cause I really don’t see a world mizzou wins without him going for 100+. Kinda like the Simpson under passing also which does line up a lot with tigers winning. I just really don’t trust them, this ain’t the 1st time they be looking awesome vs decent teams then totally shit the bed vs a top tier team!! Think maybe it different this year just cause this the offense drink always wanted, I can’t stand this coach for real but it mostly stems from all the years they had nfl type WRs but only throw damn ball when they forced to. I suppose im embracing the fact he gonna run at all cost, there no chance hardy doesn’t get 24-25 carries imo, and just don’t see a world they win unless he goes for 100+.

What the Hokies injuries? I havnt looked hard at this game yet but Drones rush prop def something I’m gonna look at.
 
Green (arky) ov 251.5 pass yards…. You can always make a case for his rush prop but I do worry bout sacks with a high number. Pretty confident vols are gonna score at will on the only path I see for arky to be in this game is throwing early and often: imo the strength of vols d is up front, I think you can pass on them as we have seen with numerous qbs smashing their totals. Dont think it be any different here, vols don’t exactly take real long to score either so I expect green will have 40ish attempts:
 
Coleman (mizzou) ov 65.5 rec yards.. don’t love the idea of playing the running back and a wr on same team but I think there room for both and this maybe a small hedge against if bama does slow down hardy, id think if they do they are gonna have to dedicate 8 to the box and leave Coleman on a island. The good news he has cleared this number in 3 of 4 games with hardy also going over so it certainly not one or the other, both could without a doubt cash which obviously the hope.
 
Stanford team total ov 17.5.,. Could probably just as easily play the game over 55 but I think for that to happen trees gotta get 20ish. Smu pass d has not been good at all, this doesn’t feel like all that big of an ask. CuSe got 18, east Texas am scored 13 and no clue who the hell they are! Missouri st qb threw for 275 despite only getting 10 points/ Think trees in a good spot as can be to compete here and again the smu d does not scare me.

Culbertson ov 1.5 td passes +174… just too good a price to not give this a shot considering everything I’ve wrote and played in this game/ I guess I’m willing to die on the sword smu d is very beatable.
 
Torn on the under 44.5 in the Texas/ou game or Texas tt under 21.5? Feel like the game under is so freaking obvious but with both team totals sitting at 21.5 it hard for me not to think it better just to play u44.5. Really see no world where 24 points isn’t enough to win this. 24-20 someone feels bout right.
 
Think I have more than enough for now/ might add some in little bit but don’t wanna get too carried away til we see what happens with the early games
 
2daBank said:
I feel way better bout hardy just cause I really don’t see a world mizzou wins without him going for 100+. Kinda like the Simpson under passing also which does line up a lot with tigers winning. I just really don’t trust them, this ain’t the 1st time they be looking awesome vs decent teams then totally shit the bed vs a top tier team!! Think maybe it different this year just cause this the offense drink always wanted, I can’t stand this coach for real but it mostly stems from all the years they had nfl type WRs but only throw damn ball when they forced to. I suppose im embracing the fact he gonna run at all cost, there no chance hardy doesn’t get 24-25 carries imo, and just don’t see a world they win unless he goes for 100+.

What the Hokies injuries? I havnt looked hard at this game yet but Drones rush prop def something I’m gonna look at.
Click to expand...
Stewart left the game last week and did not return. He is questionable and if he plays and is healthy, he will lead the team in rushing. If not, Drones is currently at 31.5 and should get that number. There are currently no Stewart rushing props, if there was and he plays, it would be worth a look.
 
He Hate Me said:
Stewart left the game last week and did not return. He is questionable and if he plays and is healthy, he will lead the team in rushing. If not, Drones is currently at 31.5 and should get that number. There are currently no Stewart rushing props, if there was and he plays, it would be worth a look.
Click to expand...

Where you playing drones at? I can’t find shit for this game at bol or the fantasy prop sites
 
2daBank said:
Donte Moore (ducks) ov 238.5 passing. He cleared this at pen st, I just don’t see a world he doesn’t clear this at home in a game I suspect he really stamps his heisman campaign! Think Hoosiers will have enough success to ensure he throwing to win this game.

Underwood (Mich) ov 178.5 passing.. the concern is Michigan runs all over usc and just bullies them so much he doesn’t need to throw: that said I do think the usc offense will have some success and I believe the run game will open up some big plays in the passing game for Michigan. Should probably hear @B.A.R. Thoughts on this, like Michigan as dogs also.
Click to expand...
I tagged you guys a few days ago --

Underwood and Haynes overs should be very good tonight.

Michigan TT as well for me with live over stalks.

34-30 kinda game methinks.
 
2daBank said:
Love this one:

Ben gulbranson (Stanford) ov 225.5 pass yards., Smu pass d has been pretty awful, think it a given trees gonna have to be throwing early and often in this game. Cuse crappy backup threw for 275, Missouri st qb racked up 275!! I really don’t see a world where he doesn’t smash this number.
Click to expand...
Nice one here.
 
I found Hardy at 90.5 so I bet these for the Bama/Mizzou game:

2 units:
Hardy over 90.5 rush yds -105 (BM)

1 unit:
Mizzou ML +145 (Bet365)
Mizzou +3 -105 (BetUS)

I bet these for the UCLA/Mich St game:

2 units:
Nico over 54.5 rush -114 (FD)

1 unit:
UCLA +7 -105 (Bet365)
UCLA ML +230 (Bet365)
 
He Hate Me said:
Stewart left the game last week and did not return. He is questionable and if he plays and is healthy, he will lead the team in rushing. If not, Drones is currently at 31.5 and should get that number. There are currently no Stewart rushing props, if there was and he plays, it would be worth a look.
Click to expand...
It looks like Stewart is the starter, so I do not want to play Drones anymore and I cannot find any Stewart props. Bet365 had player props, but they were taken down.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top