Week 7 plays, leans, and Rutgers/Cincy

Dmoney416

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
Week 1: 3-5, -2.75u
Week 2: 3-5, -0.87u
Week 3: 7-2-1, +6.15u
Week 4: 3-6, -3.35u
Week 5: 5-7, -4.57u
Week 6: 7-3, +3.4u
Straight plays: 28-26-1, -4.79u
Sides: 11-15, -10.4u
Game Totals: 17-8-1, +12.46u
Team Totals: 0-3, -3.45u
MLs: 0-2, -0.6u
Total: 28-28-1, -1.99u

Season plays:

Cincinnati OVER 6.5 Wins (+115) (10u to win 11.5): 4-1
Last Week: W 33-10 at Marshall
Next: vs. Rutgers

Purdue UNDER 7 Wins (-140) (1.4u to win 1): 2-3
Last Week: L 20-6 vs. Penn St.
Next: at Ohio St.

Week 7 plays:

North Texas +22.5 (2.75u to win 2.5)
Michigan St./Northwestern OVER 44 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Toledo/Michigan UNDER 53.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Louisville -6 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Louisiana-Monroe +15 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Miami FL -14 (1.32u to win 1.2)
Ball St. -16.5 (1.1u to win 1)
Miami OH +10.5 (1.1u to win 1)
Oklahoma St./Missouri UNDER 78.5 (1.1u to win 1)
UL-Lafayette -17 (1.1u to win 1)<!-- / message -->

Week 7 leans (bolded leans are the stronger leans)

East Carolina -5
Georgia -13
Washington St. +30 (Come on now...)
Kent St. +2 (Give me 3 and its a bet)


BOL to all this week. :cheers:
 
Last edited:
Box score fun:

- MTSU won on the final play on Tuesday on a 32 yard pass from Craddock to Beyah. FAU outgained MTSU, but they turned it over four times. Rusty Smith now has 4 TDs and 7 INT on the season after a 32-9 ratio last year. He has only completed 48% of his throws.

- Boise St's punter Brotzman averaged 57.7 yards on three punts. After a 9-27 night, La. Tech QB and Georgia Tech transfer Taylor Bennett is now completing just 39.4% of his passes this year. He has not completed more than 15 passes in any game and his only game above 40% passing was against Southeastern Louisiana where he completed 15 of 27.

- Pittsburgh outgained USF 374-245, and out first-downed them 24-14. USF also had 11 penalties for 85 yards.

- There almost 900 total yards between Memphis and UAB. UAB was penalized 11 times for 127 yards. UAB QB Joseph Webb accounted for 328 yards (93 rushing) and all of UAB's TDs. UAB kicker Swayze Waters missed an XP for the 2nd time this season after missing only one in his previous two years as UAB kicker.

- Oregon St. lost to Utah despite winning the yardage, first down, and turnover battles. Utah kicker Louie Sakoda was perfect on FGs and averaged 44.5 yards on six punts. He is now averaging 44.3 yards per punt on the season. He is also 13-15 on FGs, with his only misses coming from 48 and 54 yards.

- After averaging 43.5 on six tries, Cincinnati punter Kevin Huber is now averaging 45.6 ypp this year.

- Utah St. out first-downed BYU 23-19. BYU won the turnover battle 4-2. However, BYU missed 2 FGs and had 12 penalties for 123 yards.

- Georgia Tech outgained Duke 454-132. Georgia Tech completed 9 passes for 230 yards. Demaryius Thomas was the only plat on Georgia Tech with a reception, recording all 9 catches.

- Iowa outgained and out first-downed Michigan St., but lost the turnover battle 3-1.

- Indiana was 1-10 on third down and they turned it over three time in their 16-7 loss to Minnesota. Minnesota WR Eric Decker caught 13 of Minnesota's 22 completed passes.

- Boston College needed a late TD to finish off NC St. despite outgaining them 578-253. BC also had 28 1st downs and were a combined 11-20 on 3rd and 4th down. However, BC had 3 turnovers to NCSU's 0. BC QB Chris Crane threw for 428 yards, more than doubling his previous career high of 207.

- A hobbled Pat White was spelled by Jarrett Brown late in the 3rd quarter against Rutgers. Kenny Britt was responsible for 12 of Rutgers 15 grabs and was the only WR with more than one catch.

- Kent St. outgained Akron 413-301, out first-downed them 25-15, won the turnover battle 3-2, and held the ball 35:35 in their 30-27 loss. Kent St. kicker Kyle Reed missed two chip shot FGs, including the potential game tying FG in the 2nd OT.

- Penn St. outgained Purdue 422-241. Chris Summers missed 2 FGs for Purdue. Purdue did not commit a penalty.

- There were nearly 900 yards of offense in the Arkansas/Florida game despite the fact that only 45 points were scored. Florida had TDs on 75, 48, and 36 yards. Florida had 12 penalties for 110 yards.

- Kansas trailed Iowa St. 20-0 at the half before winning 35-33. Kansas lost the turnover battle 4-2, but they were 2-2 on 4th down and out-gained Iowa St. 436-365.

- Oklahoma ran up 594 yards on Baylor. Baylor QB Robert Griffin passed for only 75 yards, but he ran for 102.

- New Mexico St. ran up 571 total yards on Alcorn St. NMSU had TDs of 83 (punt return), 80, 57, and 32 yards. They held Alcorn St. to -13 yards rushing and an 0-11 tally on 3rd down.

- VT only out-gained WKU 293-243. WKU had only 8 first downs and was 3-14 on 3rd down (2-3 on 4th). WKU also had 13 penalties for 113 yards. W. Kentucky ran the "wildcat" formation several times in this game with RB Dexter Taylor. IT worked well, as Taylor ran 14 times for 96 yards.

- Colorado St. outgained UNLV 510-347 and won the turnover battle 2-1. Still, they needed a 10 yard run with :09 left to win the game. The mis-leading final score is the result of a fumble return as time expired.

- Both Mississippi and South Car. were 7-13 on third down. SC won the turnover battle 3-1 and only punted once in the game.

- Western Mich and Ohio combined for 860 total yards and 6 total turnovers (3 each). There were 28 points scored within a 4:30 span in the 4th quarter.

- In Army's 44-13 win, they were outgained 486-334 and out first-downed 25-13. Army was also only 3-10 on 3rd and 4th down. However, Army had 291 yards rushing, and they forced 4 turnovers (2 defensive TDs). Besides their 4 turnovers, Tulane also missed a FG, racked up 10 penalties for 89 yards, and averaged 32.8 yards on four punts.

- Notre Dame outgained Stanford 430-343 and won the turnover battle 4-0. Jimmy Clausen was 29-40 for 347 yards and 3 TDs.

More to come.....
 
- Illinois outgained Michigan 501-319 and won the turnover battle 2-0. Illinois had TDs of 77 and 57 yards.

- Neither team hit the 300 yard plateau in the Zona St./Cal contest. Cal won the turnover battle 3-1. Cal punter Anger boomed seven punts at a 47.4 clip. This includes 0 TBs and 3 punts inside the 20.

- Alabama fumbled early in the 2nd quarter when they were about to go up 21-0 on Kentucky. They never really recovered, only adding a FG in the game's final three quarters. Alabama missed 2 FGs, turned it over three times, and committed 10 penalties for 92 yards.

- Miami OH outgained Temple 303-294 and out first-downed them 20-11. However, Miami OH turned it over four times. Of Miami OH's four turnovers, three were inside Temple territory and the other took place at the Miami OH 6 yard line. QB Clay Belton replaced Daniel Raudabaugh after halftime and led the Redhawks to a FG and a TD on their first two 2nd half possessions.

- Texas Tech out-gained Kansas St. 626-296. Texas Tech passed for 490 yards and 11 different WRs recorded catches.

- SMU outgained UCF 376-280, but they handed out 4 turnovers. SMU punter Thomas Morstead averaged 45.7 yards on seven tries.

- Bowling Green kicker Sinisa Vrvilo missed 2 FGs in their three point loss to Eastern Mich (it should be noted that both were 50+ yarders). Vrvilo is now 2-7 on FGs on the year after a 15-19 campaign a year ago.

- Florida St. outgained Miami 440-256. The teams combined for 7 turnovers and 22 penalties 183 yards. Florida St. was 11-17 on 3rd down, but 0-3 on 4th down. Miami was 2-15 on 3rd, but 3-4 on 4th down. Florida St. did not punt in the game.

- Nevada had 507 total yards against Idaho. Nevada ran 47 times (for 264 yards) to only 24 passes (for 243 yards). Idaho punter TJ Conley averaged 51.5 yards on four punts. He is now averaging 47.3 ypp on the season (this guy gets completely overlooked in terms of Idaho's totals, which continue to be astronomically high despite the fact that Conley booms punts and Idaho can't score much).

- Navy beat Air Force on the strength of two blocked punts for TDs. Air Force outgained Navy 411-244. (Navy = luckiest team of the year?)

- TCU outgained SDSU 498-85 (TCU had 383 rushing yards). SDSU was held to 4 first downs, 1-11 on 3rd down, and -13 yards rushing. TCU held the ball for nearly 44 minutes.

- Mackenzi Adams had to relieve Chris Nickson early in the game for Vanderbilt. Vandy missed two FGs in the game.

- UConn outgained UNC 378-263, out first-downed them 23-13, and held the ball for 36 minutes. However, UConn had 97 penalty yards and 3 TOs. UNC scored on a INT return and a blocked punt.

- Texas' Chris Ogbonnaya had 187 yards on 15 touches. Colorado QB Cody Hawkins averaged on 3.6 ypa on 33 passes. Colorado kicker Aric Goodman missed FGs of 36, 43, and 44 yards. That leaves him 3-8 on FGs on the year with a long of only 32.

- North Texas outgained Florida Internation 428-347, but they lost the turnover battle 4-0. FLINT socred on a blocked punt and TDs of 73, 65, 28, and 26 yards. FLINT punter Carlos Munera averaged 43.6 ypp on seven attempts.

- Texas A&M actually outgained Oklahoma St. 402-401. Texas A&M turned it over five times in the first half, and it led to a 28-7 halfime deficit. Oklahoma St. scored on a punt return and two INT returns in the first half.

- In La-Lafayette's 44-35 win over La-Monroe, they racked up 728 total yards, but lost the turnover battle 3-0. They ran for 556 yards on 37 attempts (15.0 avg). ULL scored on TDs of 89, 64, 87, 74, 52, and 80 yards (no, that's not a typo). Tyrell Fenroy ran for 297 yards.

- Virginia was a combined 12-19 on 3rd and 4th down. They had 26 1st downs to Maryland's 13.

- In their 2OT loss to UTEP, USM outgained the Miners 541-382. However, Southern Miss lost the TO battle 1-0, had 95 penalty yards, and missed 3 FGs.

- 99,539 gathered to watch the riveting Tennessee/Northern Illinois match-up. Neither team did anything, however, as Tennessee managed only 9 1st downs.

- Ball St. outgained Toledo 482-157. Toledo managed only 11 1st downs and was 1-11 on 3rd down.

- Arizona ran 51 times (for 256 yards) to only 21 passes (for 193 yards).

- USC outgained Oregon 598-239. Oregon punter Syria averaged 45.3 on seven punts. USC had TDs of 34, 63, and 59 yards.

- There were 1030 total yards and 61 1st downs in the Tulsa/Rice game. Tulsa won the TO battle 4-1.

- Missouri did not punt against Nebraska. Nebraska was 12-19 on 3rd down, but they had 14 penalties for 101 yards and two turnovers.

- New Mexico passed for only 33 yards in their 24-0 win over Wyoming. However, they won the TO battle 3-0, including an INT return on the first play from scrimmage.

- Fresno St. outgained Hawaii 522-342, out first-downed them 24-14, and did not commit a penalty. However, Fresno committed 6 turnovers (led to 20 HAwaii points) and Goessling missed two FGs (including a 35 yarder in OT). Fresno ran for 318 yards on 49 carries (6.5 avg).

- Washington St. managed only 177 yards and 11 1st downs. They were 2-14 on 3rd down.
 
Chazz Anderson expected to start
Posted by BKoch at 10/3/2008 6:54 PM EDT on Cincinnati.com

Chazz Anderson is expected to start at quarterback because Brian Kelly feels more confident bringing Zach Collaros off the bench if in fact he feels the need to do that. It's likely that both will play. Aaron Webster will start at strong safety. Jacon Kelce is a game-time decision.
 
Added:

Michigan St./Northwestern OVER 44 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Toledo/Michigan UNDER 53.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Oklahoma St./Missouri UNDER 78.5 (1.1u to win 1)
 
wow usm choked ... good news for my boys.

TCU outgained SDSU 498-85 (TCU had 383 rushing yards). SDSU was held to 4 first downs, 1-11 on 3rd down, and -13 yards rushing. TCU held the ball for nearly 44 minutes.

my god ....

99,539 gathered to watch the riveting Tennessee/Northern Illinois match-up. Neither team did anything, however, as Tennessee managed only 9 1st downs.

i watched this debacle. wanted to do something more exciting so i watched paint dry later.


Boxscore tidbits in your threads each week might be my favorite posts each week. Really appreciate the work brutha

on nw total , miami oh , and the ville .. as usual we have a few similar .. gl this week.
 
BUMP because this thread got WAY too far down on the page.... always a great read needs to stay on page one

BOL this weekend, D$$$, G$$$, vegaskyle, and whatever other active handles you use on this site:)

That Michigan under looks solid as hell and will probably tail you there

already down to 51 though

i like it as michigan has the counter to shut down a run-balanced offense that toledo brings with an excellent run defense.....

ball state showed us last week how toledo can be exposed if you stop the run by completely shutting them down
 
Rutgers at Cincinnati (-8)

I think this a poor spot for Cincinnati, despite the fact that it is homecoming for the Bearcats.

Fact is, The Chazz Anderson-led Bearcats are still unknown commodity in my opinion. He wasn't asked to do much in the Marshall game. He did what was basically expected: threw a couple of boneheaded passes and he also showed glimpses of his big arm. Fact is though, special teams and turnovers put Cincy ahead comfortably, and they basically ran the entire 4th quarter to run the clock out.

Watching the Marshall game, a few things became evident to me:

- Marshall played a horrendous game, particularly on offense. Mark Cann was awful. Darius Marshall looked like he was drunk. The offensive line was beat up by an average Cincy fronr. The only players on offense that were alive for Marshall were Chubb Small (who only got 7 carries for some reason), Cody Slate, and Darius Passmore.

- Because of the above, Chazz Anderson didn't see much pressure. He did what was expected: threw a couple of boneheaded passes along with a couple that displayed a glimpse of his big arm. However, when he faced pressure, he often held onto the ball for too long. He'll see more pressure in this conference game.

Rutgers needs this game if they have any plans to go to a bowl this season.

I'm not exonarating Rutgers from their poor start, but they have been relatively unlucky. They are -7 in turnover margin, and they have forced a turnover in only one game: Morgan St. Also, despite some lopsided losses, the most they have out-gained by this season is 63 yards (@West Virginia). Lastly, if you are a believer in revenge, it definitely applies here. Cincy ruined Rutgers' undefeated season two year ago, and they also won at Rutgers last year (see avatar), sending them into a downward spiral.

Rutgers matches up fairly well with Cincy in my opinion. Their defense has been gashed by the run this year, but Cincinnati has not run well thus far (outside of the Marshall game). Rutgers has been relatively solid against the pass outside of some big pass against UNC and Fresno. Also, if you watched the Cincy/Rutgers game last year, you saw that the Rutgers front put all kinds of pressure on Mauk, but he was elusive enough to escape the majority of the sacks (he had 11 carries for 29 yards in the game). I'm not yet confident that Anderson can do the same.

I still maintain that you can beat Cincy if you can sustain drives. Rutgers has the WR weapons to do that in Underwood, Brown, and Britt. This trio combined for 16 receptions and 279 yards in last year's game against Cincy. Underwood and Brown have yet to show up this year, but this week is as good a time as any. Cincy struggles against big, athletic TEs (see: Cody Slate last week) because their LBs are run oriented and ill-equipped to cover them. Therefore, while Underwood and Brown don't need to catch many balls, they do need to keep both Mike Mickens and DeAngelo Smith occupied to open up the middle for Britt.

The key is that Teel doesn't make mistakes (he had 3 INT last year against Cincy - including the clinching INT on their final drive).

This just feels like a bad spot for Cincy for a couple of reasons:

- Marshall's deficiencies (and the 33-10 final) covered up Cincinnati's struggles early on.
- Chazz Anderson's first meaningful game.
- I feel that Rutgers' offensive personnel is the type that could give Cincinnati problems.
- Rutgers is simply more battle tested overall. While Cincy played Oklahoma, Rutgers has played UNC, Fresno, WVU, and Navy. This will be the first game where Cincy plays a team on their "level" so to speak, and I'm interested to see how they react.

I feel that this a FG game either way. It's tough to predict that a team without a I-A win this year could pull this out, but that is what I'm thinking. I hope that I'm wrong, but I think the Scarlet Knights squeak this one out.

Rutgers 24
Cincinnati 21
 
Rutgers' Kordell Young might play vs.UC
Posted by BKoch at 10/8/2008 1:29 PM EDT on Cincinnati.com

The sputtering Rutgers offense could get a huge boost Saturday vs. UC with the return of sophomore running back Kordell Young, who has missed the last four games with an injury to his left knee after rushing for 94 yards and one touchdown in the Scarlet Knight's season-opener vs. Fresno State. According to the Newark Star-Ledger, Young practiced Tuesday, with coach Greg Schiano proclaiming afterward that "he looks pretty good. He's got a chance to play Saturday." Young had been counted on to fill the void left by all-conference running back Ray Rice. Without him, Rutgers ranks last in the Big East in rushing. The inability to run the ball consistently has also had a negative impact on the Rutgers passing game.
 
CapTwo said:
BUMP because this thread got WAY too far down on the page.... always a great read needs to stay on page one

BOL this weekend, D$$$, G$$$, vegaskyle, and whatever other active handles you use on this site:)

That Michigan under looks solid as hell and will probably tail you there

already down to 51 though

i like it as michigan has the counter to shut down a run-balanced offense that toledo brings with an excellent run defense.....

ball state showed us last week how toledo can be exposed if you stop the run by completely shutting them down
Click to expand...

Thanks Cap - GL this week.

Yep - that Michigan total implies that Toledo is going to score around 17. I have a tough time seeing it happening. I think I made the total 43 or so (would have to check the totals thread to be sure), so I'd probably take it until it went under 50.

Also, if you are serious about me having multiple handles (I'm bad at detecting internet sarcasm), I welcome an IP check to disprove the theory. :cheers:
 
really liking the Ville tonight, D$.. believe Louisville defensively doesn't get enough credit and Bolen and Anderson are gonna run the fuck over those non-tackling sobs. GL this weekend, Diesel
 
Dmoney416 said:
Thanks Cap - GL this week.

Yep - that Michigan total implies that Toledo is going to score around 17. I have a tough time seeing it happening. I think I made the total 43 or so (would have to check the totals thread to be sure), so I'd probably take it until it went under 50.

Also, if you are serious about me having multiple handles (I'm bad at detecting internet sarcasm), I welcome an IP check to disprove the theory. :cheers:
Click to expand...

LOL dude im just jerkin ya chain.... not serious at all

its CTG, not covers

just locked in on that under too, lets cash bro:cheers:
 
Thanks Grind - I also tend to believe that Louisville is on a different level. We'll see tonight - GL.

I figured that Cap - just wanted to throw it out there. Glad to see you on the UM/Toledo under as well - should be good as long as Michigan doesn't do too much damage on offense.
 
Congrats Marlo - all of them hit relatively easily.

Adding:

UL-Lafayette -17 (1.1u to win 1) - selling part of my NT ticket.
 
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