Week 7 plays, leans, and my opinion on Louisville/Cincy

Dmoney416

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
Week 1: 5-5, +2.25u
Week 2: 5-4, +0.8u (also 0-1 on ML plays)
Week 3: 7-3-1, +6.85u (also 0-1 on ML plays)
Week 4: 6-6, -2.575u
Week 5: 6-4, +3.825u (also 0-3 on ML plays for -.75u)
Week 6: 6-4, +4.45u
Straight plays: 35-26-1, +17.15u
MLs: 0-5, -1.55u
Total: 35-31-1, +15.6u

Looked like a potentially big week early with a 5-1 start. Hitting the error on the Indy/Minny game was huge as was TCU's comeback. Fell back to earth in the nightcap and ended up 6-4, with UCF and UNLV falling apart. Happy with the day though and had a huge Cincy win to top it off. Nothing really impressive, but been consistent thus far.

Season plays:

Syracuse Under 4.5 Wins (4.2u to win 4): L 14-55 (1-5)
Georgia Tech Over 7 Wins (3.45u to win 3): L 26-28 (3-3)
South Carolina Over 7 Wins (2.4u to win 2): W 38-23 (5-1)

Syracuse and SC look very good at this point. Praying for a miracle push on the unpredictable Yellow Jackets.


Week 7 plays

Boston College -12 (3.85u to win 3.5)
Rutgers -15.5 (2.75u to win 2.5)
 Western Michigan/Northern Illinois OVER 57 (2.75u to win 2.5)
Minnesota/Northwestern OVER 64 (2.2u to win 2)
Texas Tech -9 (2.2u to win 2)
Temple +10.5 (2.2u to win 2)
 Ohio -3 (-120) (1.8u to win 1.5)
Houston -20 (1.65u to win 1.5)
 Michigan/Purdue OVER 54 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Air Force/Colorado St. OVER 44.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Toledo +4.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Army +14 (1.65u to win 1.5)
SMU/Southern Miss UNDER 56 (1.2u to win 0.9)

Week 7 leans

San Jose St +19
Western Michigan -4 (give me -3 or under and it is a likely play)
North Texas +8
Minnesota +7


This opening bets were based on betting against teams that got fraudulent wins last week (Notre Dame, Rice) and betting on undervalued teams because of recent losses (Rutgers). I got too antsy when I jumped on Texas Tech, so I'll just have to ride with that for now. If it hits 9 again, I may buy off it. The underdogs will find their way onto the card later this week.

Write-ups will come tomorrow as I have a lot of work to do tonight. GL to al this week. :cheers:
 
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Don't worry, it will be evened out by the dogs. The early line stuff is for the undervalued favs more often than not.
 
i almost joined you on Rutgers, but I backed off. looks like it may get out of my range now, but that's okay, i hope they get you a W

Irish covered vs Purdue, and UCLA. I almost got the 12 with BC, but I backed off cause I want to see if the 2-0 ATS streak will draw the Irish backers into the mix once more. BC took a couple weeks off before tuning up VS bgsu. They will be ready and should be able to crush the Irish. If it heads back down under 14, I may have to add it
 
Louisville at Cincinnati (-10/10.5)

**Note: This write-up is being done under the assumption that both Harry Douglas and Mario Urrutia will be in the line-up. If neither or one of them are out, my opinion of the game changes. This is also the least confident I have been in a Cincinnati prediction so far this season.

Last year's game:

Last season, Cincinnati went into Louisville and came up short as 25 point dogs. They lost 23-17 and had a legitimate shot late to steal the game. Brian Brohm played well, throwing for 324 yards and a score. Dustin Grutza was QB for Cincy, and he was only 10-27 for 129 yards. Cincy stayed in the game by running the ball (212 yards on 52 carries), by controlling the clock (had the ball for 36:43), and Louisville turnovers (3).

This year's game:

Pretty strange situation here, as this line would likely be reversed if this game was played in the beginning of the season. Louisville has struggled with defense all season, inexplicably allowing 42 to MTSU, 38 to Syracuse, and 44 to Utah (all at home). While Brian Brohm is still an elite QB, these pitfalls have proven too much to overcome. Also, without Douglas and Urrutia last week, he struggled until late in the game as his replacement receivers could not get separation. Cincy is in a bit of a letdown spot here, but they have played through every tough situational spot thus far and now come back home for homecoming.

Even with the above said, this line is too high. Laying 10-10.5 here strikes me as a huge amount.

Louisville RB Anthony Allen has been superb this season, at least on the surface. He has rushed 101 times for 575 yards and 6 TDs (an amazing 5.7 ypr). Keep in mind, however, that he rushed for 275 yards on 35 carries against MTSU. His numbers are still quite impressive, but the fact that nearly half his yardage has come against one team better puts the numbers in perspective.

Brian Brohm is the best QB that Cincy has faced this year, and it is not close. Rest assured that Brohm will not giftwrap the Bearcats with four turnovers like the slew of the other QBs Cincinnati has faced. Against Rutgers, Cincinnati shut down Ray Rice and basically dared Mike Teel to beat them as they sat down in a zone. Cincy was quick enough to neutralize the running game, but Teel had time in the pocket as Cincy's quick, but undersized D-line couldn't penetrate the big Rutgers front. Ultimately, Teel couldn't get the job done as he made the mistakes at critical junctures. Brohm will not do this, and Cincy will not be able to sit back in a zone (assuming the starting WR duo plays).

I am confident that Cincy, at the very least, will neutralize Anthony Allen. I have seen enough of Cincinnati this season to believe that no standard running game can have prolonged success against them. They are just too damn quick and they are conditioned to go four quarters. Allen will get some yards as the passing game will open up a couple lanes, but Cincy will limit him. Brohm will also do his job, so I believe that the X-factor here is Douglas and Urrutia (much like Teel was the X-factor last week). They have to get open, catch the catchable balls, and create after the catch. Urrutia has had concentration lapses at times - he can not afford to that here. Tim Brown, Tiquan Underwood, and Kenny Britt had success last week as a trio, and this L-Ville WR core can do the same.

I don't have much to say about Cincinnati offense against Louisville D. It is obvious that Cincy will get theirs in this game. Louisville must make a couple of stops to give Brohm and co. a chance here. They must also contain the running game, which they were unable to stop last season even though Grutza didn't offer much through the air. If they can't stop the run, Cincy's offense will prove to be too balanced and they will get run over.

Cincy does not have too many glaring weaknesses, but hidden among their winning streak is the fact that their FG kicker is still pretty bad. He has shown that he has a leg (hit 55-yarder against Oregon St.), but he seems like he simply kicks it as hard as he can hoping that it will fall through the uprights. He missed a 40-yarder pretty badly against Rutgers. A missed FG or two could be the difference in whether or not Cincy covers.

I feel that value lies with Louisville here. Brohm will do enough to keep them around. However, if Urrutia and Douglas do not play, Cincy could pull away as the back-up WRs could not break away from the Utah DBs. Louisville must stop Cincy a couple of times, and they can't pull that stuff where they fall behind 21-0 because they are asleep in the 1st quarter. If they do that, they won't recover.

This is also a pretty big game for the Ville - A loss here would mean an 0-2 conference record and a 3-4 total record. A loss could put them in danger of missing a bowl, and the calls for Kragthrope's head will grow even louder. I expect Louisville to compete for 4 quarters here. There could be value in the Over (67 or lower?), but Louisville's shootout with Utah last week likely killed any potential value there.

Cincinnati 37
Louisville 31
 
Wow. Couldnt have said it better myself!

I agree with pretty much everything you said, and then some!

I think both teams are going to be throwing the ball a lot, and with a lot of success. From what I am hearing, both Douglas and Urrutia should be ready for this weeks game. Douglas is almost as much of a lock to play as you can get, and Urrutia has a good chance. Honestly, I dont think it will make that much of a difference if Urrutia takes the field or not, but the Cards can not afford to play another game without Douglas. His speed and ability to get open are by far the best on the team, and the offense is so much better when he is in there.

I do think there will be a few more points scored here than what you are projecting, but as far as each teams game plans, you hit the nail on the head!

Anthony Allen has been a good back, but I dont think he is nearly as good as his numbers suggest. Calling him "Baby Bush" is a pretty big overstatement in my opinion. I truly believe the best two RB's on the roster have not played a snap yet, and probably wont until next year. Watch out for Victor Anderson and Dale Martin, as they will be names you will get use to hearing over the next few years.

Cincinnati has done nothing but impress me all year long. Any team that goes to Rutgers and wins, especially when Rutgers was in a revenge spot, is a team to be reckoned with. They have the weapons to get it done on offense, and can play some pretty good defense, especially at home.

Louisville has surprisingly looked better better to me on the road this season than at home! I have watched all the games, and the best two games they have played were at UK in a loss, and at NC State. In that NC State game, we would have put up quite a few more points if healthy, so the offense in that game wasnt a big deal. The defense actually played decent in that game.

What does that tell me? Maybe they are feeling a little more pressure to produce from the home crowd, and when they go on the road, they have noone to answer to but themselves. This factor could play a roll in this game at Cincy.

Cincinnati is the better team here, but Louisville will keep it close. I think this game will top 80 total points, think it gets done relatively easy. There would certainly be value in any TOTAL that is less than 70, and I will strongly consider playing it at less than 77.

My suggestion: Play Louisville with the 10 points, and check back later in the week for the TOTAL.

Final Score:

Cincinnati 49, Louisville 45
 
Boston College (-12) at Notre Dame

ND's victory against UCLA really helped to pound this line down. I really feel that -21 would be a more accurate line than this one.

Notre Dame' offense remains putrid. Against UCLA, they had the benefit of Olson's injury as 3rd stringer Bethel-Thompson came in to lead the Bruins. ND had the benefit of 7 UCLA turnovers (to ND's 0) and 11 UCLA penalties for 93 yards. Because of this, ND won, 20-6. Now, I don't care who you are, but if you commit 11 penalties and seven turnovers, you will be beat by basically any D-I team. ND had only 140 yards of total offense and 12 first downs (compared to UCLA's 282 yards and 20 first downs). Here is how ND scored:

Brandon Walker 26 yard FG - Drive: 4 plays, -1 yards
Brandon Walker 48 yard FG - Drive: 13 plays, 29 yards
Jimmy Clausen 1 yard run - Drive: 3 plays, 2 yards
Maurice Crub Jr. 34 yard fumble return - No Drive

As you can see, this offense was completely shut down. This how they have fared in other games this season:

Georgia Tech: 122 total yards, 13 first downs, 3 turnovers
Penn St: 144 total yards, 9 first downs, 1 turnover
Michigan: 79 total yards, 10 first downs, 4 turnovers
Michigan St: 203 total yards, 9 first downs, 1 turnover
Purdue: 426 total yards, 21 first downs, 3 turnovers

Their only respectable offensive performance came against a sub-par Purdue defense that let up a little bit after Purdue took a 26-0 lead. Evan Sharpley also saw a good amount of time in this game, and he has been more effective than Clausen thus far.

However, with ND winning this week, I am assuming that we will see Clausen at the helm again. Clausen only has 558 yards on 121 attempts for a pathetic 4.61 yards per pass. The running game is also non-existant - James Aldridge is the leading rusher with 232 yards on 62 carries (3.7 avg.). If you incorporate all of the sacks, fumbled snaps, etc that ND has had this season, they have averaged 1.0 yards per rush. Their longest pass has been 43 yards, but they lack any vertical passing game.

Boston College has been the model of consistency thus far. They have scored at least 24 points in every game, and they have beaten each of their first six opponents by double digits. There is some concern that they haven't put certain teams away (beat UMass by 10 and Army by 20 as 28 point favorites).

ND's defense has been respectable under the circumstances. However, they have faced Taylor Bennett, Anthony Morelli, Ryan Mallett, Brian Hoyer, Curtis Painter, and Bethel-Thompson thus far. While there are some respectable QBs in there, Matt Ryan is head and shoulders above all of them. BC also offers incredible balance behind the running of Andre Callander (537 yards, 6 TDs, 5.1 avg) and LV Whitworth (214 yards, 3 TDs, 4.2 avg).

BC defense is also respectable and more than enough to contain the woeful ND offense. Expect the ND defense to be on the field often here - they will wear down as the game progresses.

The only real advantage I can see for Notre Dame is the fact that they are battle tested. BC should be control from the outset.

Boston College 37
Notre Dame 10
 
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Anyone have a take on the So. Miss game? SMU might be worth a look as the Youngs should be out again. Reaves is awful.
 
Dmoney416 said:
Anyone have a take on the So. Miss game? SMU might be worth a look as the Youngs should be out again. Reaves is awful.
Click to expand...
Reaves is very awful indeed. Seems like he been around for years..he sucked at MSU and he still sucks
 
Added the following totals:

Western Michigan/Northern Illinois OVER 57 (2.75u to win 2.5)
Minnesota/Northwestern OVER 64 (2.2u to win 2)
Michigan/Purdue OVER 54 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Air Force/Colorado St. OVER 44.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
SMU/Southern Miss UNDER 56 (1.2u to win 0.9)

Screwed up and originally bet 2u on the under in SMU/USM. Reconsidered and bought some of it back, thus the crappy odds.
 
You honestly have some of the best write ups on the web dude.
so with the brown nosing out of the way ... houston write up please.

gl this week .. keep that win percentage on your straight plays going !
 
Thanks VK - hopefully they help others cap the games. Here are my thoughts on the Houston tilt:

Houston (-20) vs. Rice

Rice, much like Notre Dame, had a fraudulent win last week against Southern Mississippi. They had the benefit of seven turnovers, and had the fortune of having Stephen Reaves (who is bad enough healthy) come in with a strained oblique after backup Martevious Young had to leave the game early in the 1st quarter. They also benefited from the baffling decision to stop pounding Damien Fletcher after he ripped the Rice defense apart on the first couple of possessions. Reaves passed 44 times to Fletcher 23 rushes.

Southern Miss outgained them 422-236. Chase Clement had only 67 yards passing, and nearly a third of their rushing yards came on one play (they have done nothing of the ground all season). Their scoring drives:

Dillard 7 yard pass from Clement: Drive - 3 plays, 10 yards
Justin Hill 54 yard run: Drive - 2 plays, 69 yards
James Casey 2 yard run: Drive - 3 plays, 12 yards
Dillard 7 yard pass from Clement: Drive - 4 plays, 26 yards
Fangmeier 36 yard FG: Drive - 4 plays, 7 yards

Also, I don't expect this D to force turnovers, as they had only 1 INT in the previous three games. This defense is atrocious and these turnovers were clearly the product of Reaves and his injury.

Pretty bad spot for Rice as well. This will be their third straight road game. Also, Houston has to be disappointed as they are better than their 2-3 mark so far. They come off a 2 point home loss to ECU and a hard fought 6 point loss @Bama.

With the exception of the Nicholls St. game, Rice has given up at least 400 total yards in every game this season, including 500+ to Baylor, Texas Tech, and Texas. They also seem to be equally bad against both the run and pass. Texas tore them to shreds on the ground (and in the air), while Graham Harrell and Blake Syzmanski each threw for 400+. I believe this bodes well for Houston's balanced attack.

Houston has gained at least 400 total yards in every game this season. Anthony Aldridge continues to be one of the most underrated players in the nation. He averages 5.8 ypc, and his his back-up Terrance Ganaway picks up the slack when needs a breather. They have also done a pretty good job juggling the 2 QB system with Case Keenum and Blake Joseph. Keenum has a bit of a turnover problem (7 INTs), but the Houston coaches seem to do a pretty good job of figuring out who to use in what situation.

As for Rice's offense, the running game has been non-existant. CJ Ugokwe is the leading rusher 157. Justin Hill also has 141 (54 from one run in the USM game). Not only can they not run, but they often fall behind early so they become one dimensional. The Clement/Dillard combo has not been clicking like last season. Dillard has 268 yards and 3 TDs, but he is not even close to his 1247 yard pace of last year. Clement has just over 800 yards passing, but he has thrown 7 INT (in 142 attempts) after throwing only 5 all of last season (in 265 attempts). He has also averaged just 5.68 yards per attempt.

They have averaged 20 ppg, but some of these points have come in garbage time. For example, Texas led 41-0 before Rice was able to move the ball toward the endzone - obviously when Texas would start to back down.

I thought Rice may be a sleeper coming into the season, but the offense just has not been there thus far, and the defense has regressed.

Lastly, Rice MLB Brian Raines is listed as questionable for this game (leg). He led the team with 118 tackles and 4.5 sacks last season. The next leading returning defensive starter had 53 tackles. He is very important to this team, and his absence would further hamper an already bad defense.

Houston 45
Rice 17
 
Adding:

Temple +10.5

That makes 10 plays already. Could be a big week, as I still have 4 plays up there as possibilities (SJSU, North Texas, Western Mich, Minnesota).
 
Inflated line on Temple again for sure, but I already know those fuckers will come out and get dominated after finally winning last week...
 
Love the wrteups man and keep up the great work so far this year. With you big on Boston College and after reading your writeup on Houston could tag along.
 
Adding:

Toledo +4.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Ohio -3 (-120) (1.8u to win 1.5)
Army +14 (1.65u to win 1.5)

That makes the final card of 13 plays. GL to all today.
 
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