Week 7 NCAAF plays

[macdamn]

CFB record:
ML dogs: 20-31 +12.83 units
Spreads: 18-17 +0.01 units
Totals: 3-5 -2.22 units
Teasers & Parlays: 2-1 +3.00 units

For Week 7:
Wake Forest ML +200
Louisville ML +400
North Texas ML +250
Colorado ML +195
Washington ML +375
Temple ML +395

Northwestern -7 +100

WF: I learned my lesson on FSU as a road fave in Week 1. Looks like they also have a laundry list of injuries on both O-line and D-line. Wake should roll at home.

Louisville: As bad as their defense is, this team is still dangerous and their offense is capable of laying 40 on Cincinnati. Letdown spot for the Bearcats after beating Rutgers. 4 to 1 absolutely worth a shot.

North Texas: So far this year the Sun Belt hasn't been as crazy as year's past, nevertheless I'll take the winless home dog. If they can just not get outrushed by 157 yards this time they have a good shot, LOL.

Colorado: Coach Hawkins appears to be finally getting this team rolling. They survived the flat spot last weekend at Baylor. Tough test this week at KState, but it's fairly even matchup. I think a fairer line would be KSU -3, so nearly 2 to 1 is great value.

UW: Like Cincinnati and Kansas, ASU is overvalued now as a newly anointed top 20 team IMO. UW has had 2 weeks to prepare and is always dangerous as a dog with Locker at QB.

Temple: As long as Temple can limit turnovers they should be in this game to the end.

Northwestern: Minnesota seems to be in total disarray right now. Three guys just left the program in the last week, there was the scholarship debacle with one of the players, etc. Most of what I read implies between the lines that Brewster almost has a full scale mutiny on his hands. Wish I would have gotten on this fade train sooner. Northwestern comes in on a roll after beating Michigan St in OT. Don't see them scoring less than 40 in this one.

Still looking at some more ML dog possibilities: Baylor (laugh all you want), UNC, GT, Ole Miss, Oregon St, NIU, AF, Auburn, ECU, UNLV, AZ, ULL, MTSU.

Good luck this week everyone.

 

[Dmoney416]

GL this week mac - nice job with the ML dogs thus far. Like all of you ML plays so far as they have value.

If you have time, I am wondering what the basis behind the NIU lean is. Thanks.

 

[macdamn]

Thanks Dmoney, just saw your writeup on the Louisville game. Nice job. Glad to see you're on the Ville too.

Regarding NIU, well there's never much reasoning to betting dogs in the MAC, LOL. But I'll give it a shot.
Both teams are coming off last second one point losses. Whose was worse? It's gotta be WMU. I mean losing on a last second kickoff return? I don't think I've seen that happen in college or NFL since the Music City Miracle (although it's probably happened since then, just can't recall it). So now going on the road after that is tough. NIU is coming home after 3 straight road games. So psychologically I think NIU has the edge.

NIU has shown they can move the ball. They even outgained Central Michigan in the 35-10 loss, but 4 turnovers killed them. They are only 1-5, but with 3 losses by 1 point, 2 points and 3 points they are pretty close to being a 4-2 team (in which case they'd be favored in this game for sure). So maybe they've been a little unlucky, or maybe they just can't win close games. Not sure. But at +150 that's worth a shot on a home dog in the MAC, IMO. :shake:

 

[macdamn]

I was leaning towards a no play for the Wednesday nighter, but gotta go with:
Navy +168

Might be sloppy and cold, but the disciplined run game of Navy won't be as affected by it as Pitt will. Wanny's team is probably in freefall from here on out.

 

[Dmoney416]

Thanks Dmoney, just saw your writeup on the Louisville game. Nice job. Glad to see you're on the Ville too.

Regarding NIU, well there's never much reasoning to betting dogs in the MAC, LOL. But I'll give it a shot.
Both teams are coming off last second one point losses. Whose was worse? It's gotta be WMU. I mean losing on a last second kickoff return? I don't think I've seen that happen in college or NFL since the Music City Miracle (although it's probably happened since then, just can't recall it). So now going on the road after that is tough. NIU is coming home after 3 straight road games. So psychologically I think NIU has the edge.

NIU has shown they can move the ball. They even outgained Central Michigan in the 35-10 loss, but 4 turnovers killed them. They are only 1-5, but with 3 losses by 1 point, 2 points and 3 points they are pretty close to being a 4-2 team (in which case they'd be favored in this game for sure). So maybe they've been a little unlucky, or maybe they just can't win close games. Not sure. But at +150 that's worth a shot on a home dog in the MAC, IMO. :shake:

I am not betting Louisville this week (won't bet against my team), but I that side and the value that comes with the ML.

Thanks for the NIU info. I actually watched the entire CMU/NIU game (had CMU). NIU actually turned it over 6 times. On their first possession, NIU blew a 1st and goal inside the 5 and ended up getting an FG blocked. On their 2nd, their fumbled on the goalline. CMU converted each mistake into a 14-0 lead, and you could tell it was over right then - NIU was totally deflated.

I can explain some of the yardage difference though. 35-10 was actually the halftime score as well, there was no scoring in the 2nd half. Toward the end of the 3rd quarter, CMU went into "protect the lead" mode, running and throwing short passes. They also went in a zone D that let NIU dink and dunk for chunks of yardage. NIU literally drove into CMU territory four straight times and then turned it over. So, they were getting yardage, but no points. And, since NIU couldn't cut into the lead, there was no reason for CMU to change their gameplan.

With all that said, I do understand an NIU ML here. GL this week. :cheers:

 

[redbearde]

I don't do power rankings, per se, in the MAC and SBC...but I do keep in mind who I think the top teams are...who is in the jumble, and who the ass-swill is.

And this year, I think NIU is the ass swill of the MAC. Don't get me wrong, I don't think WMU is good - they've managed quite a lot of incompetence that has lost them games...like last week to Akron, but the difference between the #3 and #8 team in the MAC is really not much at all. GL with the play, but I'm not a fan of it without at least 2:1. NIU rivals Ohio for reeeeeally bad. Thats 5 'e's man...

I like a lot of those plays, macdamn...keep up the good work!

 

[RetroVK]

nice hit on the navy ml !
keep it going !

 

[macdamn]

Dmoney, I didn't see that NIU-CMU game so all I was going by was the box score. Obviously this a case of a misleading box score, where NIU was thoroughly dominated. Thanks for the info. With you and red telling me how bad NIU sucks I will lay off playing them after all. But I still have that devil on my shoulder saying "But it's the MAC", LOL.

Redbearde, thanks for the input on NIU.
Thanks Kyle.:shake:

If it's Thursday, you know I'm scrambling to add plays before 5:00. Going with these:
North Carolina ML +235
Air Force ML +150
UL-Lafaytette ML +315
Auburn ML +130
UNLV ML +395

Virginia -3 -110

 

[macdamn]

Oh and heads up if anyone is interested. Bookmaker will allow you to put in correlated parlays on the Ohio St-Kent St game. It must be a mistake because they won't let you on the Boise St-Nevada and Kansas-Baylor games.

So I've got
One unit on a parlay of Kent +31 and under 48
One unit on a parlay of Ohio St -31 and over 48

2 units to win 1.6 and about a 70% chance of winning I'd say.

Hopefully they won't cancel it.

 

[macdamn]

Some final additions to my card:

Iowa ML +176
Toledo ML +176

Penn St -7 +102
Rice +22 +104
Baylor +26.5 -104
Washington St +19 +104
Arizona +20.5 -110

Purdue-Michigan Over 56.5 -101
Wyoming-New Mexico Under 48 -110

4 team teaser (pays 3 to 1):
Georgia -1, Fresno St -3.5, LSU -3, Texas Tech -4

'an_horse'

 

[Fondybadger]

Agree with a lot of them... one I hate (cough PSU cough)

Good luck today Macdamn

 

[redbearde]

mac, looks like you had a great day with the ML dogs.

GJ, with Louie, NT, and Temple. Some juicy wins there...