Final thoughts. As always, for what it's worth...
Early Games
Rutgers -17 (Road Fav)
A must win game for Rutgers if they want any chance at making a big bowl game. At 3-2 and games coming up against So. Florida and West Virginia, Rutgers must get this. Ray Rice should shine in this game going up against the 116th ranked Cuse run defense (I'm hoping for a Ray Rice rushing prop somewhere). Rice should be run up and down the field on Cuse and soften up the secondary for Mike Teel. Cuse peaked with a win against Louisville, but Louisville has seemingly been exposed as a fraud with zero D. Yes, the game is in the Carrier Dome, but Rutgers should dominate the line of scrimmage here and put a pounding on Cuse. This just isn't a good matchup for Cuse and it's asking a lot for them to pull to huge surprises in the same year.
Rutgers -17 for a Medium one
South Florida -11.5 (Home Fav)
USF got a wake up call last weak against FAU. We're entering the time of year where teams need to solidify their rankings and peak the interest of Bowl committees. If USF loses a game, they drop from a BCS game to maybe something like the Capital One Bowl. Not a bad bowl, but not your expectations when you're ranked #5.
East Carolina was able to pick apart the UCF defense with nowhere near the ammunition USF brings on offense. On defense USF should be able to flex their muscles and show UCF what the 13th ranked scoring defense looks like. Kyle Israel also doesn't impress me as he's been very up and down this year and I look for the USF secondary to take advantage. Israel is completing 53% of his passes, but has thrown for only 5 TD's against 3 INT's. Kevin Smith with almost 900 rushing yards this year will determine whether there is a cover of the spread or not. This will be the best defense Smith has seen since Texas and I look for the Bulls to dare Israel to beat them through the air.
I think the USF offense is too good for UCF and the USF defense is too good to let Smith take over the game.
USF -11.5 for a small one
Illinois -4.5 (Road Fav)
Simply 2 teams going in opposite directions. Iowa has zero offense and Illinois got a huge confidence boost last week beating their 2nd BIG 10 heavyweight Wisconsin. Iowa on the other hand has lost 8 straight BIG 10 games dating back to last year. Iowa has won 4 in a row against the Illini so years of payback are on the mind of Illinois.
The Illini will run, run, and run some more against Iowa, but it will be the Illini defense that will shut down Iowa. The Iowa offense has been plagued by injuries, but the OL is awful. Illinois has faced better lines in Wisky and Penn St and handled them, Iowa should be much easier despite being on the road.
I'm a little worried about the backdoor being open here. Juice got knocked out with a little knee injury last week and I could see them inserting McGee if the Illini get up big and go into conservative mode.
Illinois -4.5 for a small one
Boston College -13.5 (Road Fav)
ND got off the hook last week going on the road and getting a BIG win against UCLA. Confidence is high in South Bend, but after talking to my sources, ND is VERY worried about BC's defense. BC has picked off 16 passes this year and are +9 in the turnover department. Most teams would elect to run against a ballhawking defense, but ND still is struggling to run the ball consistently. What is poor Jimmy Clausen to do?
BC is getting a nationally televised game and like So. Florida wants to make an impression and show they deserve a shot at the national title game. A lot of ND's troubles this year are on the O and D Lines. With the exception of the UCLA game, both lines have been getting blown away this year. Even one of my sources on the ND OL said they played outta their heads last week in California. BC has a Top 5, Top 7 defense in the country that is equally good against the run or pass. ND was able to score 20 last week because of their defense, not the offense. When you constantly have turnovers like UCLA did last week you're going to get beat.
The ND defense has stepped up quite a bit with 6 INT's over the last two games. If ND has any shot at winning this thing the defense is going to have to take advantage of what few mistakes Matt Ryan is going to offer. It seems the game plan for ND this week is to not screw up on offense and let the defense try to keep them in the game. I've been told Weis is going to try to go back to the dink and dunk approach to try to take advantage of what ND feels will be an overly aggressive BC front 7 and see if they can't break some big gains. Well, if that's truly the case, that's an easy adjustment for BC at the half. ND isn't going to pass their way to a win or run their way to a win. This is going to look like ND in Clausen's first few starts...UGLY. Add to that 2 Catholic schools going against each other and BC will not hesitiate to run this up.
BC -13.5 for a big one
ASU -11.5/UDub +6.5 1H
This game screams trap with Cal looming on the horizon for ASU. I'm more confident on UDub plus the points in the 1H. ASU is a slow starter and Washington has just enough O to make the 1H interesting.
I'm waiting for a call here on this game and will post my thoughts later.
UDub +6.5 1H for a medium play however
Still Leaning...
Va Tech -14 (Road Fav) - Not sold on Va Tech offense yet...
Air Force +4 (Road Dog) - CSU is due for a win...
Fresno St -9.5 (Road Fav) - Just hating laying DD's on the road...
Louisville +10 (Road Dog) - Waiting to see about Douglas and Urrutia. If the line drops into single digits I may jump on Cincy...
La Tech -7 - Waiting for some more info from Rexy...
BOL this weekend, fellas...
:cheers:
