Week 7 initial thoughts

D-Woww

D-Woww

Old Man Dan
brutal week 6 for yours truly. finished 1-4-1. 18-12-1 ytd

loved the browns and jags sides so much. ironically my one w was a late add of the jets, which I really didn't want to do but I decided I had to last minute

I actually think Week 7's card is pretty terrible

May have to take Denver as a home TNF dog. You heard it here first; I would not be the least bit surprised if we find out Thursday KC is gonna sit Mahomes

Houston has been awesome and Watson is an MVP candidate but I trust a guy like Reich off a bye to win a home divison game. Indy -1

Like Giants getting some skill players back at home against Zona. Still can't trust Zona even after last week. Now they are on the road on the east coast. Giants -3

38.5 is a low number, but tell me that Bears/Saints game doesn't have 17-10 written all over it. And I hate unders

Wanted seattle at -3 but still may have to take them at -3.5. really think the ravens offense is overrated and have beaten up on trash teams. Think they really struggle in Seattle

Those are my main leans. Other thoughts:

Might be time to fade Oakland...they have been much better than expected this year, if this line was being made week 1 GB is prob 8 pt favs, so 6.5 has some value

Buffalo -17 is hilarious...like, can this team really cover 17? They may win 20-0. I'll stay away.

Detroit could very easily be 5-0. Minnesota got to go off against a shitty Philly secondary, can they do so on the road against a much better defense? Sell Minny, buy Detroit here

SF at Washington....actually a tiny part of me things SF may be in trouble in a bad spot. I have SF in a ML parlay but the points are somewhat tempting. I went with Oakland 2 weeks ago and Jets last week in "hold your nose" spots and may have to do it again

Jags/Cincy...yuck.. don't wanan touch this. under maybe?

Chargers at Tennessee....double yuck.. not with a 10 foot pole

Lean towards Eagles but wont play them bc that game is already gonna take years off my life as it is

Pats at Jets? Maybe pats here in a come back down to earth spot for the jets?

Strong leans:

NO/CHI under 38.5
NYG -3
Sea -3.5
Indy -1
Denver +3.5

Mild Leans:

WAS +10
Det pk
NE -9.5
GB -6.5
 
The Chiefs will be without Fisher and Jones still, but this will be the healthiest they've been in 3 games. (see edit below) I've seen it on Twitter and elsewhere, there is/was no way Mahomes was not playing. Been a full participant all week. If I hear something change, you guys will be the first to know

EDIT: I take it back... Fuller and Watkins had hoped to be a go. They are not.
 
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SF might come out slow. This feels like a live/HT opportunity. Just thinking out loud...
 
Lions are saying all the right things. They need to get their run defense figured out a bit. From a numbers perspective, the line is off a big which should warrant a play on Detroit.
 
Giants off some extra rest. This is a tough game but I do think they win outright. Barkley should be back which will help Jones immensely.
 
Jets were my first bet. They are so much better with Darnold. Gase had no chance with LF running the offense. They should be a play on right now.
 
more I think about it more I love the giants. Sure zona won last week, but look at Ryan's numbers. They have no pass defense. Now they go on the road to the east coast and the Giants are getting healthy. 27-20 NYG
 
D-Woww said:
if you like that you kind of have to like Miami +17 too though right? Id be shocked if Buffalo scores 30+; just not their style
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This feels literally like a 30-14 kind of game. I know Buffalo is a damn good defense and they took care of bad teams the first few weeks. Buffalo is off a bye and with the 3 straight home games can make a bit of a move. The bookends are wins unless something very odd happens so I think their mental focus is on the Philly game out of those 3. I wouldn't mess with the side, because a few Dolphins turnovers could lead to anything...
 
D-Woww said:
more I think about it more I love the giants. Sure zona won last week, but look at Ryan's numbers. They have no pass defense. Now they go on the road to the east coast and the Giants are getting healthy. 27-20 NYG
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same old story with Matty Ice, they were down big and that's where he stacks fantasy points.

Not really sure how anyone could want to lay a FG with NYG. I lost on WAS a few weeks ago, but Dimes looked great against a terrible TB pass defense and has not done anything noteworthy since. NYG hung with NE, but that's because of the huge pointspread. I like Shurmur and an extra three days is a big deal for preparation, but i wouldn't bet them

(this all being said with the idea that ARI is not very good and has a coach who couldn't win in college so why would he win in the NFL)
 
GWarner27 said:
same old story with Matty Ice, they were down big and that's where he stacks fantasy points.

Not really sure how anyone could want to lay a FG with NYG. I lost on WAS a few weeks ago, but Dimes looked great against a terrible TB pass defense and has not done anything noteworthy since. NYG hung with NE, but that's because of the huge pointspread. I like Shurmur and an extra three days is a big deal for preparation, but i wouldn't bet them

(this all being said with the idea that ARI is not very good and has a coach who couldn't win in college so why would he win in the NFL)
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the bucs pass defense is like the 2014 seahawks compared to zonas

I get your point completely but sometimes you have to lay points with bad teams. Agree a lot with your second point I actually don’t think Kingsbury is terrible and they might have something going there in Arizona but they are still incredibly raw & The situation/spot is brutal
 
D-Woww said:
the bucs pass defense is like the 2014 seahawks compared to zonas

I get your point completely but sometimes you have to lay points with bad teams. Agree a lot with your second point I actually don’t think Kingsbury is terrible and they might have something going there in Arizona but they are still incredibly raw & The situation/spot is brutal
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that's pretty much the opposite of my gambling philosophy

Peterson back will help and I'd argue the NYG secondary has been just as bad
 
GWarner27 said:
that's pretty much the opposite of my gambling philosophy

Peterson back will help and I'd argue the NYG secondary has been just as bad
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I
D-Woww said:
the bucs pass defense is like the 2014 seahawks compared to zonas

I get your point completely but sometimes you have to lay points with bad teams. Agree a lot with your second point I actually don’t think Kingsbury is terrible and they might have something going there in Arizona but they are still incredibly raw & The situation/spot is brutal
Click to expand...

The Bucs, Cards, and Giants pass d are all trash. Bucs allow the most ypg, Giants allow most yards per catch ( and league leading 30 passing plays of 20+). The Cards allowed 16 tds and have zero ints.

I agree that peterson back is a big factor that nobody is mentioning, and with him I'd think they are the best secondary of the three. I just don't think I can fade Barkley in his first game back.
 
I have been fading the Ravens all season, but I think getting Peters is huge. Marlon Humphrey is top tier, don't think Lockett can get off on him (or Wilson will even throw his way much). Hawks could be starting a rookie at safety that played 12 defensive snaps. Oline banged up as well. Still fading Russell @ home is something I want no part of with the way he is playing. I might jump in at the half but I'm interested in this matchup.
 
I see a ton of Colts love and I get the situational standpoint but I just don't see how you fade the Texans offense right now.... and Malik Hooker is out? Hilton prop might be a great Indy related wager. D-hop might go off this game. I'm on the Texans
 
Lexington 125 said:
I see a ton of Colts love and I get the situational standpoint but I just don't see how you fade the Texans offense right now.... and Malik Hooker is out? Hilton prop might be a great Indy related wager. D-hop might go off this game. I'm on the Texans
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For me the situational spot is one thing but there’s also this: Watson and co are at their best when they are able to go downfield with the ball. Against good pass rushes, their ability to do that is limited and they struggle more. Now I don’t think Indy’s pass rush is elite but it’s capable and the Texans missing a quality tackle will help in that regard.
 
^^^ KC and Atl have zero pass rush. Indy will make it a different game today for Watson. We may see the scrambling and turnover Watson today or at least I hope! Gl
 
Lexington 125 said:
I


The Bucs, Cards, and Giants pass d are all trash. Bucs allow the most ypg, Giants allow most yards per catch ( and league leading 30 passing plays of 20+). The Cards allowed 16 tds and have zero ints.

I agree that peterson back is a big factor that nobody is mentioning, and with him I'd think they are the best secondary of the three. I just don't think I can fade Barkley in his first game back.
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easy to say now, but being afraid of a wager because of the least important position on the field is silly
 
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