Week 7 in the FCS

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Friday, October 10

Matchup​	Time (ET)​	TV/Mobile​
Marist at Penn	7:00pm	ESPN+
Cornell at Harvard	7:00pm	ESPNU
Brown at Bryant	7:00pm	FloSports

Saturday, October 11

Matchup​	Time (ET)​	TV/Mobile​
Saint Francis U. at Duquesne	12:00pm	SNP/NEC Front Row
Southern Conn. at Delaware State	12:00pm	ESPN+
Mercyhurst at Wagner	12:00pm	NEC Front Row
Lehigh at Columbia	12:00pm	ESPN+
Bucknell at Lafayette	12:30pm	ESPN+
Howard at Sacred Heart	1:00pm	ESPN+
South Dakota at Indiana State	1:00pm	ESPN+
WestConn at New Haven	1:00pm	NEC Front Row
Mercer at Princeton	1:00pm	ESPN+
St. Thomas at Davidson	1:00pm	ESPN+
Morehead State at Stetson	1:00pm	ESPN+
SC State at North Carolina A&T	1:00pm	FloSports
Virginia-Lynchburg at Morgan State	1:00pm	ESPN+
New Hampshire at Rhode Island	1:00pm	FloSports
Maine at Merrimack	1:00pm	ESPN+
Richmond at Colgate	1:00pm	ESPN+
Presbyterian at Butler	1:00pm	FloSports
Yale at Dartmouth	1:30pm	ESPN+
Norfolk State at Wofford	1:30pm	ESPN+
Valdosta State at The Citadel	2:00pm	ESPN+
CCSU at Robert Morris	2:00pm	SNP/NEC Front Row
Dayton at Valparaiso	2:00pm	ESPN+
Abilene Christian at West Georgia	2:00pm	ESPN+
Villanova at Elon	2:00pm	FloSports/My48
Monmouth at Towson	2:00pm	MNMT/FloSports
Campbell at Hampton	2:00pm	FloSports
Furman at Western Carolina	2:30pm	ESPN+
MVSU at Alabama A&M	3:00pm	SWAC TV
Idaho State at Montana State	3:00pm	Scripps/ESPN+
Westgate Christian at UAPB	3:00pm	SWAC TV
Northern Iowa at South Dakota State	3:00pm	ESPN+
NC Central at Florida A&M	3:00pm	HBCU GO
Western Illinois at UT Martin	3:00pm	ESPN+
Gardner-Webb at Eastern Illinois	3:00pm	ESPN+
Lincoln (CA) at Alcorn State	3:00pm	SWAC TV
Southern Illinois at North Dakota State	3:30pm	ABC ND/ESPN+
VMI at ETSU	3:30pm	ESPN+
Alabama State at Jackson State	3:30pm	ESPNU
Tennessee Tech at Charleston So.	4:00pm	ESPN+
Cal Poly at Montana	4:00pm	Scripps/ESPN+
Southern at Bethune-Cookman	4:00pm	SWAC TV
Tennessee State at Southeast Missouri	4:00pm	ESPN+
Central Arkansas at North Alabama	4:00pm	ESPN+
Youngstown State at North Dakota	4:00pm	ESPN+
Drake at San Diego	5:00pm	ESPN+
Northern Colorado at Idaho	5:00pm	SWX/ESPN+
Austin Peay at Eastern Kentucky	6:00pm	ESPN+
Illinois State at Murray State	7:00pm	ESPN+
Lamar at East Texas A&M	7:00pm	ESPN+
Northwestern State at HCU	7:00pm	ESPN+
Texas Southern at Grambling State	7:00pm	ESPN+
Northern Arizona at UC Davis	7:00pm	ESPN+/CW Sac
Tarleton State at Utah Tech	8:00pm	ESPN+
Sacramento State at Weber State	8:00pm	ESPN+

 

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Difficult football week for me coming up. I should be able to do football stuff Monday, and at some points posting online Tuesday and Wednesday and bet openers assuming that is when they happen. Be on airplane Monday and Thursday to/from out west. And the big thing is, I likely will see no football on Friday or Saturday! This will be the first time I can remember going back probably 27 years that I will not see any games. There was a fall trip I did in 1998, that would be the last time I missed all the games on a football Saturday. So pretty big deal and I know I will have a very weird feeling about it. But a special cousin passed away back east and we want to travel to be with their family this upcoming weekend. Still looking forward to the football time that takes place during the week here. Will post the power rating and related stuff next day or so.

 

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Date	Team	Standing	Scr	Pred	Pwin	Margin	Total
Sat 10.11 12:00.PM.ET	St Francis PA @ Duquesne	# 121 (0-5) # 87 (3-3)	0 0	21 31	25 % 75 %	-9.5	53.5
Sat 10.11 12:00.PM.ET	Cornell @ Harvard	# 106 (0-3) # 9 (3-0)	0 0	14 38	8 % 92 %	-24.5	55.5
Sat 10.11 12:30.PM.ET	Bucknell @ Lafayette	# 68 (4-2) # 51 (4-2)	0 0	27 35	27 % 73 %	-8.5	61.5
Sat 10.11 1:00.PM.ET	Presbyterian @ Butler	# 72 (5-0) # 80 (4-2)	0 0	24 27	40 % 60 %	-3.5	52.5
Sat 10.11 1:00.PM.ET	South Dakota @ Indiana St	# 13 (3-3) # 71 (2-3)	0 0	41 21	88 % 12 %	-19.5	59.5
Sat 10.11 1:00.PM.ET	Mercer @ Princeton	# 23 (4-1) # 58 (2-1)	0 0	31 24	70 % 30 %	-6.5	54.5
Sat 10.11 1:00.PM.ET	S Carolina St @ NC A&T	# 62 (3-3) # 113 (1-5)	0 0	35 28	71 % 29 %	-7.5	63.5
Sat 10.11 1:00.PM.ET	New Hampshire @ Rhode Island	# 34 (3-3) # 29 (4-2)	0 0	21 24	45 % 55 %	-2.5	45.5
Sat 10.11 1:00.PM.ET	Morehead St @ Stetson	# 124 (2-4) # 129 (2-4)	0 0	34 27	68 % 32 %	-7.5	60.5
Sat 10.11 1:00.PM.ET	Brown @ Bryant	# 52 (2-1) # 83 (2-4)	0 0	28 26	53 % 47 %	-2.5	56.5
Sat 10.11 1:00.PM.ET	St Thomas MN @ Davidson	# 92 (2-3) # 127 (1-4)	0 0	34 21	79 % 21 %	-13.5	58.5
Sat 10.11 1:00.PM.ET	Howard @ Sacred Heart	# 74 (3-2) # 82 (4-2)	0 0	24 21	59 % 41 %	-3.5	45.5
Sat 10.11 2:00.PM.ET	Campbell @ Hampton	# 88 (1-5) # 109 (2-4)	0 0	34 31	55 % 45 %	-2.5	65.5
Sat 10.11 2:00.PM.ET	Abilene Chr @ West Georgia	# 16 (3-3) # 18 (5-1)	0 0	31 26	64 % 36 %	-4.5	58.5
Sat 10.11 2:00.PM.ET	Dayton @ Valparaiso	# 90 (4-1) # 126 (1-4)	0 0	26 17	79 % 21 %	-9.5	47.5
Sat 10.11 2:00.PM.ET	Villanova @ Elon	# 20 (3-2) # 25 (4-2)	0 0	26 24	54 % 46 %	-2.5	48.5
Sat 10.11 2:00.PM.ET	Valdosta St @ Citadel	(2-3) # 55 (2-3)	0 0	21 26	34 % 66 %	-5.5	48.5
Sat 10.11 2:30.PM.ET	Furman @ W Carolina	# 31 (4-1) # 44 (3-3)	0 0	28 31	42 % 58 %	-3.5	61.5
Sat 10.11 3:00.PM.ET	Gardner Webb @ E Illinois	# 35 (3-2) # 70 (3-2)	0 0	31 28	59 % 41 %	-3.5	59.5
Sat 10.11 3:00.PM.ET	Southern Univ @ Bethune-Cookman	# 116 (1-4) # 107 (2-4)	0 0	27 31	38 % 62 %	-4.5	57.5
Sat 10.11 3:00.PM.ET	W Illinois @ TN Martin	# 103 (1-5) # 47 (1-5)	0 0	21 38	16 % 84 %	-16.5	63.5
Sat 10.11 4:00.PM.ET	Tennessee Tech @ Charleston So	# 12 (5-0) # 81 (1-5)	0 0	34 17	88 % 12 %	-16.5	51.5
Sat 10.11 4:00.PM.ET	Tennessee St @ SE Missouri St	# 97 (1-4) # 57 (1-4)	0 0	17 31	14 % 86 %	-14.5	52.5
Sat 10.11 5:00.PM.ET	Drake @ San Diego	# 65 (2-2) # 73 (3-3)	0 0	27 24	58 % 42 %	-3.5	51.5
Sat 10.11 7:00.PM.ET	Northwestern LA @ Houston Chr	# 122 (1-4) # 100 (1-4)	0 0	17 34	13 % 87 %	-17.5	54.5
Sat 10.11	Alabama St @ Jackson St	# 60 (4-1) # 36 (4-1)	0 0	20 28	25 % 75 %	-7.5	51.5
Sat 10.11	CS Sacramento @ Weber St	# 26 (2-3) # 32 (2-3)	0 0	31 28	58 % 42 %	-3.5	58.5
Sat 10.11	Lincoln CA @ Alcorn St	(0-4) # 125 (0-5)	0 0	3 45	0 % 100 %	-42.5	53.5
Sat 10.11	Yale @ Dartmouth	# 30 (2-1) # 40 (2-1)	0 0	31 28	55 % 45 %	-2.5	56.5
Sat 10.11	S Connecticut @ Delaware St	(1-3) # 98 (3-3)	0 0	10 40	2 % 98 %	-30.5	54.5
Sat 10.11	Tarleton St @ Utah Tech	# 4 (6-0) # 64 (1-5)	0 0	36 19	87 % 13 %	-17.5	55.5
Sat 10.11	VMI @ ETSU	# 114 (1-4) # 50 (2-4)	0 0	17 37	9 % 91 %	-20.5	54.5
Sat 10.11	Austin Peay @ E Kentucky	# 11 (4-2) # 33 (2-3)	0 0	28 24	62 % 38 %	-3.5	53.5
Sat 10.11	TX Southern @ Grambling	# 115 (2-3) # 110 (3-2)	0 0	24 28	38 % 62 %	-3.5	52.5
Sat 10.11	N Colorado @ Idaho	# 67 (2-3) # 14 (2-3)	0 0	10 34	3 % 97 %	-24.5	47.5
Sat 10.11	Idaho St @ Montana St	# 39 (2-4) # 3 (4-2)	0 0	17 41	7 % 93 %	-23.5	61.5
Sat 10.11	Illinois St @ Murray St	# 21 (3-2) # 104 (0-5)	0 0	35 20	83 % 17 %	-15.5	59.5
Sat 10.11	Lamar @ East Texas A&M	# 28 (4-1) # 101 (1-4)	0 0	31 26	63 % 37 %	-5.5	56.5
Sat 10.11	Maine @ Merrimack	# 69 (2-4) # 78 (3-3)	0 0	24 20	63 % 37 %	-3.5	46.5
Sat 10.11	Marist @ Penn	# 111 (3-2) # 46 (2-1)	0 0	14 38	5 % 95 %	-24.5	51.5
Sat 10.11	MS Valley St @ Alabama A&M	# 128 (0-4) # 95 (3-3)	0 0	21 38	15 % 85 %	-17.5	60.5
Sat 10.11	Monmouth NJ @ Towson	# 24 (4-1) # 48 (3-3)	0 0	34 31	57 % 43 %	-3.5	64.5
Sat 10.11	Cent Arkansas @ North Alabama	# 61 (2-4) # 75 (1-4)	0 0	30 31	50 % 50 %	-0.5	62.5
Sat 10.11	NC Central @ Florida A&M	# 45 (4-2) # 96 (1-3)	0 0	31 24	70 % 30 %	-7.5	57.5
Sat 10.11	S Illinois @ N Dakota St	# 8 (4-1) # 2 (5-0)	0 0	20 38	12 % 88 %	-18.5	58.5
Sat 10.11	Northern Arizona @ UC Davis	# 10 (4-2) # 6 (4-1)	0 0	28 34	35 % 65 %	-5.5	61.5
Sat 10.11	Central Conn @ Robert Morris	# 89 (3-3) # 117 (1-4)	0 0	27 24	60 % 40 %	-3.5	51.5
Sat 10.11	Mercyhurst @ Wagner	# 102 (2-4) # 120 (1-4)	0 0	26 24	54 % 46 %	-2.5	49.5
Sat 10.11	Norfolk St @ Wofford	# 119 (1-5) # 84 (0-5)	0 0	14 31	8 % 92 %	-17.5	46.5
Sat 10.11	Youngstown St @ North Dakota	# 22 (3-2) # 7 (3-2)	0 0	26 38	23 % 77 %	-11.5	63.5
Sat 10.11	Northern Iowa @ S Dakota St	# 38 (2-3) # 1 (5-0)	0 0	7 38	0 % 100 %	-30.5	47.5
Sat 10.11	Cal Poly @ Montana	# 41 (3-3) # 5 (5-0)	0 0	21 42	11 % 89 %	-20.5	62.5
Sat 10.11	VA-Lynchburg @ Morgan St	(2-3) # 108 (2-4)	0 0	3 48	0 % 100 %	-45.5	55.5
Sat 10.11	Lehigh @ Columbia	# 15 (6-0) # 76 (1-2)	0 0	27 21	69 % 31 %	-5.5	43.5
Sat 10.11	Richmond @ Colgate	# 43 (3-3) # 66 (2-3)	0 0	28 23	64 % 36 %	-4.5	53.5
Sat 10.11	W Connecticut @ New Haven	(4-0) # 118 (3-3)	0 0	14 41	5 % 95 %	-27.5	56.5

 

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Sagarin

HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.99 4.67 5.10 5.19 5.19

FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL



10 @ Harvard 28.16 25.93 31.61 32.02 48.96 Cornell 1407 93% 61.65 3.58 65.23

11 @ Pennsylvania 15.00 14.50 17.01 15.14 11.88 Marist 460 82% 39.50 21.18 60.67

59 @ Alabama A&M 13.55 10.41 15.23 17.28 21.94 Miss. Valley State 402 80% 42.08 25.29 67.37

60 @ Bethune-Cookman 7.30 5.49 4.00 14.00 21.67 Southern U. 218 69% 40.07 21.67 61.74

61 Brown 2.68 2.28 6.27 0.34 3.96 @ Bryant 134 57% 13.27 31.46 44.73

62 Presbyterian College 1.56 1.30 3.64 0.53 11.49 @ Butler 119 54% 16.85 38.85 55.69

63 Tennessee Tech 11.69 12.51 11.67 14.26 25.38 @ Charleston Southern 337 77% 16.31 37.13 53.44

64 @ Colgate 4.01 3.30 1.07 8.11 15.33 Richmond 155 61% 35.01 24.42 59.43

65 Lehigh 6.78 4.16 9.25 9.19 17.77 @ Columbia 207 67% 3.60 16.38 19.97

66 @ Dartmouth 3.66 3.16 4.99 2.31 2.22 Yale 149 60% 29.60 25.45 55.06

67 St. Thomas-Mn. 7.41 5.72 6.59 13.48 24.13 @ Davidson 221 69% 19.95 40.38 60.33

68 @ Duquesne 14.02 11.48 16.11 16.32 22.89 Saint Francis-Pa. 420 81% 37.68 15.52 53.20

69 @ East Tennessee State 17.64 15.83 20.07 19.59 24.50 VMI 585 85% 42.17 16.45 58.61

70 @ Eastern Illinois 0.19 0.18 -1.99 1.95 4.31 Gardner-Webb 102 51% 31.01 36.65 67.67

71 Austin Peay 5.92 7.31 2.96 10.01 15.57 @ Eastern Kentucky 190 65% 18.48 30.60 49.08

72 @ Elon 3.97 3.52 2.50 6.04 10.88 Villanova 154 61% 24.33 14.99 39.32

73 NC Central 5.08 3.01 5.60 9.14 19.79 @ Florida A&M 174 63% 18.44 41.19 59.63

74 @ Grambling State 4.32 5.24 5.19 1.86 -5.84 Texas Southern 160 62% 30.86 27.91 58.77

75 @ Hampton 4.28 3.77 3.26 6.04 8.07 Campbell 160 61% 31.49 38.32 69.81

76 @ Houston Christian 11.47 12.35 8.51 15.10 16.39 Northwestern State 330 77% 44.40 7.01 51.41

77 @ Idaho 18.85 17.62 20.75 21.09 18.87 Northern Colorado 651 87% 25.27 11.27 36.55

78 South Dakota 6.69 7.76 5.79 9.34 11.06 @ Indiana State 205 67% 32.94 42.34 75.28

79 @ Jackson State 8.75 8.75 9.70 8.36 6.62 Alabama State 253 72% 32.69 24.76 57.45

80 @ Lafayette 10.19 10.46 8.33 13.66 15.29 Bucknell 291 74% 44.75 29.19 73.93

81 @ Merrimack 1.57 2.02 3.11 -1.47 -2.17 Maine 119 54% 15.39 13.95 29.34

82 @ Montana 20.43 20.38 21.37 22.65 21.60 Cal Poly-SLO 749 88% 40.46 29.67 70.13

83 @ Montana State 25.70 25.76 28.12 27.06 24.97 Idaho State 1163 92% 33.35 20.38 53.73

84 Illinois State 13.68 12.14 15.88 16.60 19.17 @ Murray State 406 80% 25.07 36.64 61.71

85 @ North Alabama 0.79 1.96 -2.72 2.49 2.77 Central Arkansas 109 52% 36.19 34.08 70.27

86 SC State 2.72 4.22 5.21 0.04 -2.57 @ NC A&T 135 57% 34.15 47.71 81.86

87 @ North Dakota 12.50 12.77 10.46 16.33 22.06 Youngstown State 364 78% 43.13 28.74 71.87

88 @ North Dakota State 19.37 18.38 20.30 22.19 21.51 Southern Illinois 682 87% 43.46 23.08 66.54

89 Mercer 3.89 4.42 4.57 4.28 5.49 @ Princeton 153 60% 27.72 36.65 64.38

90 @ Rhode Island 6.27 5.49 7.77 5.48 6.73 New Hampshire 197 66% 28.60 12.02 40.63

91 Central Connecticut 0.94 -1.21 1.44 4.35 11.53 @ Robert Morris 111 53% 24.53 28.98 53.51

92 @ Sacred Heart 1.57 1.07 3.45 -0.91 -1.93 Howard 119 54% 24.33 16.77 41.10

93 @ San Diego 1.48 -1.00 5.44 -0.91 -5.75 Drake 118 54% 24.85 27.28 52.13

94 @ South Dakota State 29.98 29.63 32.86 32.61 37.39 Northern Iowa 1607 94% 38.57 0.57 39.14

95 @ SE Missouri State 12.33 11.58 10.38 17.35 21.34 Tennessee State 358 78% 29.93 13.03 42.97

96 @ Stetson 1.05 0.51 2.73 -2.15 -2.29 Morehead State 112 53% 31.34 36.26 67.60

97 @ Tennessee-Martin 12.78 12.64 12.09 15.36 14.96 Western Illinois 373 79% 34.38 26.86 61.24

98 Lamar 0.77 0.02 5.82 -3.49 -4.73 @ East Texas A&M 109 52% 22.80 25.89 48.69

99 Monmouth-NJ 1.04 0.89 2.12 1.11 3.32 @ Towson 112 53% 36.33 36.56 72.89

100 @ UC Davis 9.39 7.76 11.32 9.99 10.76 Northern Arizona 269 73% 40.03 31.57 71.61

101 Tarleton State 16.56 18.09 18.09 17.40 21.71 @ Utah Tech 530 84% 13.40 40.41 53.81

102 Dayton 5.02 0.73 6.75 10.97 28.07 @ Valparaiso 173 63% 16.68 26.70 43.38

103 Mercyhurst 4.35 3.74 4.08 7.25 13.05 @ Wagner 161 62% 13.33 28.11 41.44

104 Sacramento State 0.69 3.28 -3.67 4.13 7.76 @ Weber State 108 52% 24.64 35.65 60.29

105 @ West Georgia 5.57 5.58 7.55 3.31 5.83 Abilene Christian 183 65% 34.97 19.97 54.93

106 @ Western Carolina 1.81 2.13 -0.31 3.40 2.08 Furman 122 55% 32.69 34.42 67.10

107 @ Wofford 13.33 12.93 12.40 16.35 20.01 Norfolk State 393 80% 27.91 3.50 31.41

 

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Reddit

/r/FCS Sportsbook - FCS Games

10/11: Abilene Christian @ West Georgia -5.5 (O/U 54.5)

10/11: Alabama State @ Jackson State -5 (O/U 56)

10/11: Austin Peay -11 @ EKU (O/U 52)

10/11: Brown -8 @ Bryant (O/U 52)

10/11: Bucknell @ Lafayette -9 (O/U 56)

10/11: Cal Poly @ Montana -18.5 (O/U 59.5)

10/11: Campbell -5 @ Hampton (O/U 58)

10/11: Central Arkansas -2 @ North Alabama (O/U 59)

10/11: CCSU -7.5 @ Robert Morris (O/U 51.5)

10/11: Cornell @ Harvard -31 (O/U 56)

10/11: Dayton -11 @ Valparaiso (O/U 52.5)

10/11: Drake -3.5 @ San Diego (O/U 54)

10/11: Furman -0.5 @ Western Carolina (O/U 58.5)

10/11: Gardner-Webb -4 @ Eastern Illinois (O/U 57.5)

10/11: Howard @ Sacred Heart -2 (O/U 48.5)

10/11: Idaho State @ Montana State -18.5 (O/U 56.5)

10/11: Illinois State -15 @ Murray State (O/U 57.5)

10/11: Lamar -5 @ East Texas A&M (O/U 55.5)

10/11: Lehigh -12 @ Columbia (O/U 48)

10/11: Lincoln CA @ Alcorn State -38.5 (O/U 55.5)

10/11: LIU @ Stonehill -0.5 (O/U 44.5)

10/11: Maine @ Merrimack -1 (O/U 47.5)

10/11: Marist @ Penn -14 (O/U 53)

10/11: Mercer -6.5 @ Princeton (O/U 53)

10/11: Mercyhurst -9 @ Wagner (O/U 49.5)

10/11: MVSU @ Alabama A&M -14 (O/U 57.5)

10/11: Monmouth -2.5 @ Towson (O/U 59.5)

10/11: Morehead State -8 @ Stetson (O/U 58.5)

10/11: New Hampshire @ Rhode Island -3 (O/U 47.5)

10/11: Norfolk State @ Wofford -15 (O/U 49.5)

10/11: NCCU -11 @ Florida A&M (O/U 56)

10/11: Northern Arizona @ UC Davis -5 (O/U 59.5)

10/11: Northern Colorado @ Idaho -16 (O/U 48)

10/11: Northern Iowa @ South Dakota State -27.5 (O/U 48.5)

10/11: Northwestern State @ HCU -13.5 (O/U 52.5)

10/11: Presbyterian -7 @ Butler (O/U 53)

10/11: Richmond @ Colgate -2 (O/U 54)

10/11: Sacramento State -8.5 @ Weber State (O/U 54.5)

10/11: South Carolina St -12.5 @ NC A&T (O/U 59.5)

10/11: South Dakota -6.5 @ Indiana State (O/U 59.5)

10/11: Southern Conn St @ Delaware State -31.5 (O/U 56.5)

10/11: Southern Illinois @ North Dakota State -14.5 (O/U 56.5)

10/11: Southern @ Bethune-Cookman -12 (O/U 57)

10/11: St. Francis @ Duquesne -14.5 (O/U 53)

10/11: St. Thomas -19 @ Davidson (O/U 55)

10/11: Tarleton -20.5 @ Utah Tech (O/U 54.5)

10/11: Tennessee State @ Southeast Missouri -9.5 (O/U 54)

10/11: Tennessee Tech -21 @ Charleston Southern (O/U 56)

10/11: Texas Southern @ Grambling -2 (O/U 52.5)

10/11: Valdosta St @ The Citadel -13.5 (O/U 49)

10/11: Villanova @ Elon -2 (O/U 54)

10/11: Virginia U-Lynchburg @ Morgan State -48 (O/U 54)

10/11: VMI @ ETSU -18 (O/U 56)

10/11: Western Conn St @ New Haven -6.5 (O/U 55.5)

10/11: Western Illinois @ UT Martin -9.5 (O/U 56)

10/11: Yale -1.5 @ Dartmouth (O/U 53.5)

10/11: Youngstown State @ North Dakota -11 (O/U 57.5)

 

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Connelly S&P

Brown 30.9, Bryant 24.0

Harvard 50.1, Cornell 7.5

Penn 35.3, Marist 18.4

Alabama A&M 39.3, MVSU 18.8

Austin Peay 30.5, Eastern Kentucky 24.7

Central Arkansas 33.5, North Alabama 29.2

Central Connecticut 24.9, Robert Morris 16.0

Dayton 32.0, Valparaiso 13.0

Drake 27.2, San Diego 25.5

Duquesne 33.2, Saint Francis-PA 11.1

Eastern Illinois 30.5, Gardner-Webb 28.8

ETSU 36.3, VMI 16.6

Grambling 27.5, Texas Southern 23.3

Hampton 33.5, Campbell 26.2

Houston Christian 30.2, Northwestern State 15.6

Howard 22.7, Sacred Heart 21.4

Idaho 35.6, Northern Colorado 13.4

Illinois State 45.3, Murray State 17.9

Jackson State 30.8, Alabama State 23.2

Lafayette 33.6, Bucknell 26.1

Lamar 30.1, East Texas A&M 19.9

Lehigh 29.1, Columbia 14.8

Long Island 19.5, Stonehill 16.8

Mercer 32.0, Princeton 22.8

Mercyhurst 21.0, Wagner 18.8

Merrimack 23.8, Maine 21.5

Monmouth 34.8, Towson 28.9

Montana 43.3, Cal Poly 16.8

Montana State 41.7, Idaho State 18.2

Morehead State 30.2, Stetson 25.7

NC Central 34.2, Florida A&M 21.1

North Dakota 36.9, Youngstown State 26.9

North Dakota State 40.7, Southern Illinois 20.4

Presbyterian 29.0, Butler 22.3

Rhode Island 27.0, New Hampshire 18.5

Richmond 29.8, Colgate 23.4

Sacramento State 34.7, Weber State 24.5

SC State 36.7, NC A&T 21.5

SE Missouri State 33.2, Tennessee State 23.1

South Dakota 37.2, Indiana State 22.3

South Dakota State 41.0, Northern Iowa 11.9

Southern U. 29.0, Bethune-Cookman 28.1

St. Thomas 33.3, Davidson 21.8

Tarleton State 45.7, Utah Tech 14.5

Tennessee Tech 42.7, Charleston Southern 11.3

UC Davis 34.4, Northern Arizona 24.2

UT Martin 38.7, Western Illinois 26.1

Villanova 25.9, Elon 25.6

West Georgia 32.2, Abilene Christian 30.8

Western Carolina 30.9, Furman 29.3

Wofford 25.9, Norfolk State 21.2

Yale 28.2, Dartmouth 27.7

 

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We have some injuries to look into this week. Bryant QB. West Georgia QB.

 

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I find out from SVP and Stanford Steve steponduck had Morgan apparently. I had Under. Morgan-Georgetown headlines bad beats

 

[Foxtrot]

I find out from SVP and Stanford Steve steponduck had Morgan apparently. I had Under. Morgan-Georgetown headlines bad beats

Thought the exact same thing? But unique enough that has to be one of the same

 

[s--k]

Listened to some comments from Bryant coach Merritt. Sounds like Myer is "week to week" and it is "pain tolerance" and they have a bye next week. Some of that tells me he will not be playing vs Brown Friday. The QBs they used...one was a runner, one was a thrower and neither were that great. Shame if Meyer doesn't play. Would think this is a decent spot to play on Bryant vs Brown. Bryant had been in every game this year, pretty competitive team and improved from last year no doubt. But without Meyer I don't think I can come to terms with playing them.

The thing for Brown beating Rhode Island, that game statistically wasn't any different from last year when URI won.

2024 URI total yards : 434-298 (6.4-4.3) 3rd down URI 46.2%, Brown 35.7% (2-of-3 4th down)- TO margin even 2 each
2025 URI total yards : 452-341 (6.7-4.7) 3rd down URI 58.3%, Brown 35.7% (3-of-3 4th down) - TO margin Brown +4

Was it Gaines or Buchanan that fumbled at the goal line going in? Huge play that would've tied the game, instead Brown goes down for a TD of their own and now they are up by 14.

I've heard and read some discussion on how Brown is maybe a good team...they never have been for as long as I've been following the Ivy (2021) they are always a bottom half and usually the worst or second worst team in the league. I just think they were on fire vs a bad and bewildered Georgetown team and then the TOs are really the only difference in their game vs Rhody 2024 vs 2025.

I'm not buying Brown as anything other than an average Ivy team. And I am not buying that beating Brown badly by Harvard is any kind of feather in Harvard's cap. Harvard is good, but let's not prop up Brown on their resume.

All this to say, I'm disappointed that Meyer is injured and may not play in this game because I don;'t know what kind of team Bryant is really without him. Losing bad to Maine I guess is the kind of team they are. With him, they would be able to play with and possibly beat Brown. They play every year and the last 8 have all been one score games.

 

[steponaduck]

i had morgan state vs georgetown under.

 

[s--k]

Not sure we get any lines tonight or not.

Friday games...

Would assume Penn is the side to be on, although Penn is a bit of a weak favorite. 0-1 ATS this year in the Stonehill game. Last year just 2-5-1 with their only covers coming on the road at Brown (won by 10 -3) and Cornell (won by 18 -2.5). They trailed by DD vs both Lehigh and Dartmouth but came back in both games (LH front door covered in the final minute and a lot of things went right for them to beat Dartmouth last week). They blew a DD lead vs Stonehill needing a FG in the final seconds to bag that win.

Do think that Penn has upgrade at QB this year with O'Brien (finished last year starting final 4) and WRs Richardson and Owens are off to great starts. Stokes is a great returnman and they played him at WR last year and trying to use him at RB this year, they have another guy, just lacking in the run game. O'Brien is leading the team in rushing and don't think that is good. 2024 Ivy O POY RB Hosley having an impact at Georgia Tech, he is missed here. OL has held up well in terms of sack, pressure and negative plays the last 2 games vs Dartmouth and Lehigh.

Not sure the Penn D is all that good, definitely do not think their run D is good. Lehigh tore them up, which Lehigh is strong. Dartmouth was effective with RB and QB on them. Penn limited Stonehill, but SH is a very weak rush O so that would've been the expectation for Penn to hold them in check. Teams are converting over 50% 3rd down on them.

Not an ideal team to back laying 2-3 TDs.

Might think a Penn - Marist game could compare to the Bucknell - Marist game. Bucknell good O, especially pass O, which is what Penn is better at. Bucknell D bad, and I don't know if we know the Penn D is bad, but it's not in the good category. Bucknell did lead by 10 most of the time and were up 34-17 before Marist scored a late TD. Could've been more pts for Bucknell as they were only 4 TDs on 7 RZ trips kicking a couple short FGs. Marist O isn't real good, avg 24.4 ppg and I know they have 3 non-offensive TDs, so the O is only generating 20.2 ppg.

Just think this line is going to be too high for me to want to take Penn. Marist has been 10 and 12 pt home dogs to Bucknell and San Diego (covered both) and were 8 pt road dog to Wagner (covered that also). Marist 5-0 ATS, all as dogs and won 3 straight up.

 

[steponaduck]

Marist is actually pretty good this season.

I’ve seen Penn projected as high as -22.5

 

[s--k]

How high will they make the Harvard line? Harvard avg margin of victory vs Cornell the last 5 is only 14ppg, avg score 34.6 - 20.6. Cornell O was real bad in their first game vs Albany, but was much better vs Yale and Colgate. Yale is actually not that great and Colgate is playing better ball this year, but not on D. Harvard should lock them down much better than what Cornell saw the last 2 weeks. Colgate did lead 28-6 last week before Cornell came back on them for a while and then Colgate pulled away again. Cornell really was in that Yale game enough they were a threat to win no matter what the final score says. Cornell outgained both of them by a total of 177y...so maybe Cornell isn't as bad as anyone might think...they are almost always bad though, somewhere between 5th-8th in the league and Harvard is always good, just weird that Crimson have never won by much margin vs them. If the line is in the 20s as Massey and Sagarin have it, I think you just have to play Harvard given how they are playing right now and their overall potential to blow out a Cornell team still trying to find themselves. But S&P suggests a 50.1-7.5 and Reddit says -31. Not sure numbers of that level are of interest to me on the favorite. Maybe something on an Over perhaps number depending?

 

[steponaduck]

-35.5 I’m guessing

 

[s--k]

Marist is actually pretty good this season.

I’ve seen Penn projected as high as -22.5

Yes, scrappy. Hard to lay those kind of pts with Penn all things considered.

 

[s--k]

-35.5 I’m guessing

Looking back at some of the Cornell dog lines, 2023, Holy Cross was -31 at home vs them and won 47-7. Something like that is possible. That Big Red head coach is no longer here, and the current one likely prepares his team better, but still, Harvard should roll. They were up on Brown 34-7 HT. Only scored 7 in the 2H, weird. A couple of the Harvard scores vs Brown were easy off TOs, but Cornell can and probably will be handing Harvard turnovers as well, so an easy score or two should be factored.

 

[s--k]

Harvard up 31-14 HT last year at Cornell and only outscored them 7-6 2H. Will need them to be better in the 2H than they were vs Brown 2 weeks ago and better than they were last year vs Cornell to cover a big number.

 

[s--k]

St Francis is off their best offensive game of the year at Bucknell prior to the bye week. Came into that one avg only 267ypg and 8.5ppg vs FCS and then put up 478 and 23pts on Bucknell throwing in the EZ at the end of the game only losing by 7. SFU still can't run so relying on Whitfield's arm. Duquesne has been impressive the last couple weeks, 499y and 44 pts on New Haven and 426y and 34 pts last week on Stonehill while limiting both of those opposing teams to less than 20 pts each. SH got some garbage yards and pts on them last week. Seasoned vet Riddell 6-0 ratio the last 2 weeks, Davis + Butts productive on the ground and Isabella + some other complimentary receivers all making for a good O. Dukes won 38-7 last year as 4 pt road fav, outgained them 311-172. Would like line to be less than 14. Bucknell was -18.5 so probably won't be. Duquesne was sitting at -10 or so for a while vs New Haven then morning of game line steamed to 17...so maybe hope for a lower open? I don't know.

 

[s--k]

Doesn't look like we are getting any lines tonight. Sleepy doesn't need to sit in the sportsbook all night until tomorrow.

 

[s--k]

Have to like Mercyhurst on an assumed small line at Wagner. Massey -2, Sagarin -4.3, S&P calls for close game...?...21-18.8. Reddit has a line of 9. I was a little worried that playing the Big Sky and MVFC teams that Mercyhurst scheduled would leave them beat up and injured. 22-13 win home vs LIU last week is fine I guess, only was 15-13 mid 4Q, might've hoped for a little better performance given how MH has played at times vs better teams. MH D has had some bright spots this year which is surprisingly as they would've been figured as an offensive led team. Shut down LIU (0 TDs allowed on Sharks 3 RZ trips and held them to 2-of-11 3rd downs). Also, maybe it was just a WTF game for Montana State, but held up well there, played good 2H vs YSU. There have been some bad spots as well, but hey, it's Mercyhurst, if we can find good aspects of their D I think that is worthy of note. A little concerned the O didn't do more last week...and maybe the Sac St-Mont St-SDSU back-back-back had them a little off. Most concerning are the 14 TFLs allowed vs LIU! Maybe this is a proceed with caution spot, but can't like Wagner much really. They did beat Norfolk before the bye last week, but everyone is proving capable of beating Norfolk. The way that Mercyhurst looked at times vs much better teams kind of made me a believer so think I have to back them here, not sure who the worst NEC team is, but Wagner is in that conversation.

 

[s--k]

Like Lehigh. Respect for Columbia still largely coming off of last year's team. Previous Columbia teams have struggled on O and this year's is looking to be a repeat of that. Only scored 43 pts in 3 games, held under 300y in each. The D can still put up a fight, although honestly, since Lafayette kind of had their way with them, Columbia has faced Georgetown with Thomas at QB and Princeton, who did show some O their first two games, but Princeton's O could resemble last year when they were pretty average. So anyway, Lehigh is good! They've beaten Yale by 18, Penn by 14 (which was misleading score but outgained them 539-345), Bucknell by 17, Duquesne by 14, Sacred Heart by 18 and Richmond by 7. Now all those teams are just some kind of average to above average, but Columbia certainly is not better than any of them. Might catch a lower than expected opener if some of the PR lines are to be believed. Lehigh is 3-2 ATS, BUT, they covered some of the earlier lines vs Richmond, so some logs could have them 4-1 AND their lone non-cover then would be the SHU game, when they did only win 28-10 as 19.5 pt fav, but did so with a 423-177 (7.4-3.1) yardage edge.

 

[sleepy]

Doesn't look like we are getting any lines tonight. Sleepy doesn't need to sit in the sportsbook all night until tomorrow.

Didn't even bother going tonight

back to back 8hr nights not worth it

will go tomorrow

hope i don't forget to bring my money again

 

[sleepy]

-35.5 I’m guessing

They like to make the fav's very expensive and they always have a hook

-28.5, -31.5, -35.5 all possibilities

I would take the +35.5 though

 

[sleepy]

I always hope to get Tenn Tech -13.5 but it never happens

LOL

 

[s--k]

Lafayette not the best favorite, 2-2 ATS, 1-2 ATS as favs of over a TD and finals have been close to the closing number. Beat Stonehill by 16 laying 15.5 but they were better in that game then the final showed (led 42-20 when SH got 90y fum ret TD). Lost outright vs Princeton as 10.5 pt fav and last week vs Fordham won by 14 laying 14.5 and that game, play it out multiple times Lafayette likely wins that by more than the spread, both teams blew several chances for more pts...each team topped 400y and only combined for 34 pts. Columbia was their big win as a 3 pt fav. So what I take from that is kind of Lafayette is good, but things happen in their games that don't help their position as the favorite, notably the Stonehill, Princeton and Fordham games allowing the dog to stay competitive relative to the spread.

Edwards was the stud RB through the first 4 games, but he appeared to get banged up on a play he fumbled on vs Princeton, did not return and only had 5att. Then his father passed away and he DNP vs Fordham, which I'm not sure if that was due to lingering injury or the personal aspect. Without him Lafayette run game wasn't good but DeNobile picked up the slack with their best passing day on the year. Statistically it is a decent D overall, but they have had moments that make you question how good the Leopard D is and some of the Os faced aren't the greatest.

Bucknell has scored 30+ on every FCS except for Lehigh and I think Lehigh D is superior to Lafayette. Their O avg 418ypg vs FCS, but allow 465ypg. Known fact that Bucknell D is not good, they did keep Marist and St Francis Os to just 23 pts each, but more capable teams have scored atleast 28 on them including VMI, Lehigh got 41. Richmond O with a backup QB just got a season high 8.7ypp and were 75% 3rd down vs Bucknell D last week.

I guess...Lafayette D is probably somewhere between Lehigh and Richmond good. It is difficult to keep this Bucknell O from scoring over the course of an entire game.

Definitely think Over deserves a look. Bucknell games are 5-1 to the Over with the only miss the 57 combined pts with Marist on a 57.5 pt total. Avg total 53. Lafayette is just 3-3 on totals, 3-2 to the Over vs FCS (avg total 53.5 in those). The Columbia game had a total of 54 and they combined for 52 with Lafayette scoring 38 of those. Columbia just doesn't score. A Bucknell - Lafayette total in the 50s very likely goes Over. Reddit has it too low at 56. Massey 61.5 which could still be good. Sagarin has a staggering 73.9! S&P+ is calling this game 33.6-26.1 for Lafayette.

Last year Bucknell won 21-14 as a 6pt home dog. Total was 56. Laf reached Buck territory 4 of their first 5 1H but only scored 7 pts. Every Buck drive ended in Laf territory, they were SOD 3x at the L33, L29 and L05 yard lines. They combined for 768 ttl yards. There was potential to score there, just like there was potential for Fordham and Lafayette to put up more pts in their game last week.

Will be curious on the numbers they open on this one. Bucknell is good enough on O to push for pts and a close game, but bad enough on D to allow Lafayette also score and potentially gap them on the scoreboard.

 

[s--k]

Seeing some possibilities of Howard being favored at Sacred Heart. Howard would only be a couple pt fav though if at all. Probably a 1-2 spread either way. Howard D is only allowing 213ypg and 12ppg in 3 FCS games! (FAMU, Hampton, Richmond). Howard O scored 30+ with 400+ yards on Morehouse and Hampton, but have been held below 14 and under 300y vs everyone else. Sacred Heart games were trending Under early in the season, but the last 3 have gone way Over and actually the way their D is playing...might be a chance for Howard O to do better than normal. 2025 vs 2024 recent SHU games combined pts; vs DSU '25 66 pts '24 32 pts, vs Norfolk '25 59 pts '24 13 pts, LIU '25 45 pts '24 35 pts. SHU just allowed 509 (6.8) and 35 pts in regulation to CCSU, DSU gained 466 (8.8) and scored 31 on them and even Norfolk of all teams, Norfolk put up 550y (7.5) and 28 pts. In Norfolk's other FCS/Dll games, they avg only 368ypg and they gained nearly 200 more yards then that on SHU! SHU has comeback from DD deficits the last 3 weeks to beat LIU, DSU and CCSU. Does that say they are resilient and the O is proving ability to overcome, but they are bad enough on D to keep falling in those holes. I don't know. Is Howard D actually good? FAMU has shown zero O vs FCS this season, Hampton and Richmond have some issues. Last year Howard won 21-14 as 7.5 pt home fav. SHU O better this year with Snyder at QB compared to who they had starting last year. Could hope for a mispriced total? Sagarin has 41.1, Massey 45.5 and S&P calling 22.7-21.4 for the Bison. Given how bad SHU D is playing a Howard team that you'd think plays Unders could be in a higher scoring game. Who wins? SHU had their streak of 3 straight upset wins snapped last week, but they nearly pulled of a 4th consecutive upset losing in OT at CCSU. Their O has been playing with confidence.

 

[s--k]

Indiana State HC Mallory has a coaches show Thursday night. Not sure if there will be an update on Owens or not, he was injured Sept 6th. South Dakota in some ways is still a tough team for weaker teams, but we know they are significantly below their 2024 level. I would not expect Indiana State to lose by 28+ as they have their last 3 games. That 3 game run for Indiana St, wow, a who's who of teams at the top of their game.

For comparison purposes, this matchup should be closer to the 2023 game, some of the same players are around (like Bouman, Owens who might still be out though). In that one USD came in 5-1 and Indiana State 0-6. USD was 19.5 pt road fav and won 17-3 (382-288 ttl yards - 8.5-4.3). I don't know comparisons in terms of lower or higher scoring, just that, this South Dakota team is more like the 2023 version so should be no comparisons to last year's game between these two.

Indiana State had two good 1H drives last week go for TDs vs SIU. Had 20 pts through 3Q so not like all of their 27 was garbage time. Maybe surprising their O did ok in spots in that one. The D was shredded however.

This is Indiana State's first home game since September 6th. USD has played poorly on the road this year (Iowa St, Lamar and NDSU)

USD 1-4 ATS as a fav this year. USD did lead Murray 42-7, went final 49-24 as 28.5 pt fav. Some late money did come in Murray and some lines dropped to 27.5. Just noting as to which way an opening line might move this week. People have sold some USD lines. I know the Lamar number came down a few points after open. But USD did cover vs Drake, also led that one 42-7 before going final 42-21 (-17). And then ofcourse the OT game vs UNC and Lamar loss.

USD is relying heavily on the run game, Bouman is only completing about 12 passes per game the last 4 weeks. He was a dismal 37% vs UNC, but last 3 games upped that to 66%. The downfield passing has improved, 4.86 ypa first 3 games, 10.76 ypa the last 3 games. But the O mostly is going through the run game and Phillips right now, as a team they avg 323 3 of the last 4 (not counting NDSU as Ind St run D won't compare to the 88y and 3.3ypc that Bison held Yotes to). Ind St giving up 344.6 ypg on the ground the last 3 games, 430y and 11.6 ypc vs SIU! Wow! But vs SIU, Montana and Indiana who are a combined 14-1 and all ranked top 10 in their respective polls.

USD plays better in their dome. Even last year, only 1-2 ATS as road chalk (covered at Murray, failed to cover at YSU -22 won by 10 and UND -14 won by 6). Were 1-1 ATS road fav 2023 (no cover vs Ind St, crushed Western Ill on their way out of MVFC)

Something has me leaning towards Indiana State here even if Owens is still out. How about they ran for 322 (6.1) and had a 200y RB vs SIU. They ran for 198 (6.6) on the Griz. That is unusal capability by such a big dog vs such good opposition. The O has been behind the 8 ball and over matched, but it is more the D that has let them down, so maybe the trees O gives them a chance to compete this week?

Line projection here is wild. Massey has -19.5, Sagarin and Reddit have -6.7 and -6.5. S&P+ calling a 37.2.-22.3 USD win.

 

[s--k]

Mercer different team with the Fr QB (12-1 ratio last 3 games). Did only score 22 on Wofford but put up 468y (5.6). Then the last 3 games they have scored 38, 38 and 45! Avg 475ypg over that 4 game span! I'm going to say the D isn't the same, not sure if the numbers back that up, but it's still good, still create negative plays and turnovers, but it can be had vs capable offenses - see the ETSU game. Is Princeton a capable offense? Last year it surely wasn't as they threw INTs on 3 straight possessions vs Mercer and Bears won 34-7 with a punt ret TD and a fum rec in the EZ for TD (376-196 yard edge). I'm going to say that Princeton is still not very good on O even though they did put up some numbers on San Diego and Lafayette. I think the O Princeton had vs Columbia is more like who they really are. 17 pts, 352 ttl yards (5.3), about 50% passing and about 3.0ypc rush. Might feel a little weird laying pts with Mercer at Princeton, as it is rare for Tigers to be home dogs. Last year 2-0 ATS, +9.5 vs Dartmouth and lost by 9, +4.5 vs Penn and won outright by 3. 2023 1-1 ATS, +8.5 vs Harvard and won outright by 7, +1.5 vs Yale and lost by 8. The only way it would make sense for Princeton to win here would be if the Fr QB for Mercer has a Fr game on the road...or, and this does happen, Mercer D has a tendency to give up big plays through the air. Otherwise, have to side with Mercer if they are a small road fav (sagarin -3.89, others -6.5 and up)

 

[s--k]

Funny how things evolve throughout the season. St Thomas plays a really tough game at Idaho and people are like 'hey that St Thomas team is good'. What have they done since then? Beat Northern Michigan just 20-7, lost at San Diego (literally fumbled the game away), and just lost at home in OT to Butler! Davidson can lay claim to the worst team in FCS I suppose after losing to Stetson. This is not a very appealing game to consider. I assume St Thomas wins, but that O has gotten progressively worse each week it seems.

 

[s--k]

Pioneer road chalk at Stetson bad for your health? Certainly was bad for Davidson. Now Morehead gets to try their turn (although Sagarin has Stetson -1). I'm used to Stetson being a pretty pass happy team. How about last week, just 7-of-9 passing for 90y, but 384y rushing on 48att! That is better than what Tennessee Tech did to Davidson! But that was against Davidson. Is Morehead any better? Not really. Were blown out by PC and then last week were in a 28pt hole at HT vs Dayton before scoring 28 themselves in the 3Q! and then missed a go-ahead FG late before Dayton scored TD to win. This is another game that doesn't offer much interest.

 

[steponaduck]

If the line is right, this is a chance to pound the Tommies

 

[steponaduck]

Presby is the only pioneer team to be concerned with this season

 

[s--k]

Once upon a time South Carolina State D was considered good. Held Wofford to 142y and 15 pts (we know now everyone does that). Appeared to have played well defensively at South Carolina holding them to 253y 4.5ypp (SC had 3 non-offensive TDs and only one real good O drive all game). This all set up the great lie. SC State then allowed Bethune Cookman 41 pts and 507y (7.0)! USF, well ok, USF. Charleston Southern 31 pts and 345y (6.1) and then Savannah St, ok, Dll. But I have no idea on this SC State team. They lost to Charleston Southern as 10.5 pt favs thanks largely to 3 lost fumbles. SC State 0-3 ATS as favs this year. The 2024 team was great, lost a lot, wasn't sure how it was going to pan out, looks like we are seeing how it is panning out. The O still looks to have some power, just very inconsistent and often don't translate yards into points.

NC A&T they are showing something as year 1 of coach Gibbs starts to come together. They got Kevin White back at QB a couple games ago and he is proving a nice improvement in their O (passed for 131ypg first 3 without him, 252ypg passing with him). But how good overall are they still? NCCU blew them out bad in their last home game (outgained by 451y!). Maine was up on them 30-9 before going final 37-30. Then last week, and maybe this says more about W&M, but A&T never trailed until the final 2min of the 3Q and were only outgained by 23y in the 4 pt loss.

This is home coming game and homecoming is still a very big deal for HBCUs while it has lost much impact elsewhere. At some point I would like to get a tally on how HBCU teams do at homecoming. Last year off a bye they were trounced under the previous coaching staff by Hampton on homecoming. This A&T team is 4-1 ATS as dogs vs FCS however, that A&T team was 1-3 ATS in that role coming into the HC game last year.

The NCCU game proves that the best MEAC team still has a big advantage on A&T. SC State was the best MEAC team last year. This year? They played last year, was tied 10-10 HT before SC State won 45-25 as only a 3.5 pt fav. I like how this A&T is playing as they have competed or shown the ability to fight back in every game but one. And I really don't know about SC State, how good are they? Why they playing bad and losing to CSU and letting B-CU get all those yards and pts on them? Downgrade at QB this year.

So SC State was only -3.5 at home last year, we know they were better last year. What are they going to be this year at A&T? Massey showing 7.5, Reddit 12.5. If that is the case, that doesn't seem right. Gibbs has A&T fighting in their games and figure they will fight here in arguably their biggest home game of the year.

 

[sleepy]

If the line is right, this is a chance to pound the Tommies

I'm going to have the voucher ready

Like that one A LOT

 

[sleepy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1975989035584692439

 

[s--k]

New Hampshire is back to having no O like they did much of last year. Surprising that their best game was vs FBS Ball St - 29pts and 391 ttl yards with 132y rushing (3.9ypc) where as FCS avg other games just 19.4ppg and 291.8ypg with their best rush output vs FCS being 118y (3.0) coming twice vs NCCU and Albany. The D had held up well vs limited offenses, but were exposed for 432y (6.9) vs Dartmouth and last week 461y (6.8) vs Villanova who ran for 238 on them.

A lot of people are down on Rhode Island right now, some not even ranking them in their top 25. Fair to say they were too high in the top 10, but maybe an overreaction to the Brown loss. -4 TO margin will lose lots of games and I seem to be one of the only ones not being overly congratulatory to Brown for winning it...just because I watched Rhode Island beat themselves. Brown D made plays, and capitalized which of course is great by them...I just don't think a 21-28 loss to Brown puts Rhody in the right context.

I would trust URI more, their O has show ability, avg 409ypg vs FCS. Every game is a little different, common out of conference opponent in Holy Cross. UNH outgained them just 279-251 (5.2-4.3) and won 19-16 on a last second FG. URI outgained them 402-229 (6.3-3.8) and won 9-7 also on a FG in the final mintues. Difference being URI had several good drives result in FGs or no points, whereas UNH only really had one good drive all game (58y). UNH kicked 4 FGs + a 53y TD pass. URI kicked 3 FGs. Back when HC D was considered pretty stout UNH and URI combined to score 0 TDs in 5 RZ trips on the Crusaders.

UNH plays in lots of Unders, 4-1 to the Under and the one that went Over did so by one point (47 pts on a 46 total vs Dartmouth). No URI FCS game has gone Over, 4-0-1 to the Under. Like UNH, the URI D has been able to limit weak offenses, but vs Brown and Stony Brook they did yield some yards and pts.

Turnovers are a concern for URI. They have lost 3 or more in half their games this year. -7 margin on the year.

Think I do trust the potential of URI O a little more given how UNH has played, defenses might be close to even. Both off bad losses trying to right the ship. URI has better players. Will they play like it?

 

[sleepy]

Weber State football: Gilkey has surgery on broken leg as ‘Cats take bye week

The extent of quarterback Jackson Gilkey’s affliction and availability is now known following his injury Saturday at UC Davis. Gilkey suffered a fractured left fibula late in the road loss; as expected, he’ll miss the rest of the 2025 season. The fibula is on the outside of the leg, which helps...

www.standard.net

 

[sleepy]

Looks like Weber in bad shape at the QB position

The injury leaves Weber State (2-3) down to two available quarterbacks. Redshirt freshman Cash McCollum, a transfer from North Texas, has been positioned as the No. 2 QB this season but suffered broken bones in his right throwing hand during a practice and is out indefinitely.

That leaves junior Dijon Jennings and true freshman Kingston Tisdell as WSU byes this week (three practices, no game) before hosting Sacramento State on Oct. 11. Jennings is in his fourth college season and second at Weber State.

 

[s--k]

Weber State football: Gilkey has surgery on broken leg as ‘Cats take bye week

The extent of quarterback Jackson Gilkey’s affliction and availability is now known following his injury Saturday at UC Davis. Gilkey suffered a fractured left fibula late in the road loss; as expected, he’ll miss the rest of the 2025 season. The fibula is on the outside of the leg, which helps...

www.standard.net

Interesting. Wonder who they might have stepping in?

The injury leaves Weber State (2-3) down to two available quarterbacks. Redshirt freshman Cash McCollum, a transfer from North Texas, has been positioned as the No. 2 QB this season but suffered broken bones in his right throwing hand during a practice and is out indefinitely.
That leaves junior Dijon Jennings and true freshman Kingston Tisdell as WSU byes this week (three practices, no game) before hosting Sacramento State on Oct. 11. Jennings is in his fourth college season and second at Weber State.


“We’re going to battle it out. Dijon has the upper hand right now but we’re just continuing to develop them and put a game plan together for Sac State,” Mental said. “(Jennings) is going to play; Kingston’s still up in the air.”

4th season, never played...or a true Fr?

Sac State D shouldn't be stressed very much by this O. Really, only vs McNeese was Weber O good. I watched the Butler game and would not call what Weber did as good. And McNeese is letting everyone walk on them.

I like most of what Sac State does on D, really do not like what they have on O. Maybe this is an Under? Last year they combined for 99pts going to OT.

 

[s--k]

Maine at Merrimack is interesting, Maine traveling there 2 years in a row. Won 26-15 in a pick'em last year. Not much O to be found. Merrimack's TD was a 53y fum ret and Maine got a short field TD (350-195 ttl yard edge for ME). Merrimack O really struggled (1 of 14 3rd down). Merrimack still a little weak this year. Only had 10pts on Robert Morris through 3Q last week and Pereira is having a rough season passing right now, he went 5-of-13 for 73 0-1 vs RM, they put another QB in. Pereira also struggled vs SB (25%) and CCSU (40% 0-2 ratio). He's more of a runner. Not sure if coaches will try and work in a new guy. Every Merrimack game has gone Under because they don't do much and they have played teams that also don't do much on O so far this year. Except SB did score 35 and put up 438y on them with 251 rush (5.7). ME O has found themselves the last 2 weeks vs A&T and Bryant. Two of the worst teams in the CAA, but it is positive for Maine O. Led Bryant 34-0 HT! (finished 421-253 yard edge) and led A&T 30-9 before winning 37-30 (478-348 yard edge). Peevy has thrown 5 TDs to 0 INTs the last 2 weeks after not throwing a TD since week 2. ME has shown ability to run on teams with Baines and Peevy gives the veteran presence at QB that doesn't do a lot to win the game, but good enough to guide the O. I was thinking this might be a sneaky game for Merrimack...they have good fan support at home, just broke an on-campus record for home attendance last week (15,000+), but the way Maine has been playing I think they would be the play. Only Massey has love for Maine with a -3.5. Sagarin shows Merrimack -1.5, Reddit -1 and S&P has Merrimack 23.8-21.5. Merrimack games can be ugly to watch and if they muddy it up that probably suits them. I will just go with how Maine has been playing of late to continue with that.

 

[sleepy]

SEMO aims to snap a three-game skid as they host Tennessee State in their conference home opener, with a new quarterback under center and hopes of reviving both their run game and struggling defense.

Looks like Jax Leatherwood has been benched.

 

[s--k]

I need to step away to do some stuff and have dinner with a friend later, probably right when lines are coming out. So will have my phone out while trying to carry on a conversation while hitting submit on bets - assuming we get lines tonight? Think we will. I'll come back online later this evening and see what is going on.

 

[sleepy]

I guess Leatherwood is hurt

Southeast Missouri football enters its bye week dealing with major uncertainty at quarterback after a 34-10 loss to UT Martin. Starter Jax Leatherwood went down with a knee injury, and backup Patrick Heitert was also forced out with a knee injury.

Leatherwood out 4–6 weeks, Heitert may miss season — SEMO QB competiti...

SEMO faces a quarterback shake-up as Jax Leatherwood is sidelined 4–6 weeks and Patrick Heitert may miss the season, leaving Johnny Weber and JD Sherrod to compete for the starting role.

www.southeastarrow.com

 

[s--k]

No lines? I wondered if the other college games tonight might impact that somehow.

 

[sleepy]

I’m starting to run out of gas.

 

[sleepy]

No lines? I wondered if the other college games tonight might impact that somehow.

I doubt it. Two garbage games no one cares about. I’m the only guy in the book with money on them.

 

[sleepy]

Calling it a lid at midnight

 

[s--k]

Ran through some other games this morning.

Another travel day. Hopefully should have time to see what is going on tonight. Friday likely won't be online at all. Maybe early Saturday morning I can catch some Dll lines but that will be it for the day. Hopefully maybe late Saturday can get caught up.

Colgate – not faced many good Ds (is Richmond good D? not sure after last week). Cornell started slow and then pushed Colgate in 3Q before ‘Gate pulled away again – Corn gained 458y! Colgate D not very good can be run on or passed on. Richmond found O last week at Bucknell (everyone does) – backup QB did well but 3 INTs likely cost them the game. Richmond was run on surprisingly. Colgate Over 4 of 5, all except Nova. This game could resemble Nova game where Nova won 24-17 416-350 (6.6-6.3) yard edge. Nova led 14-0, but tied 17-17 3Q. Colgate has been outgained every game but Fordham. Richmond probably tougher with new QB who can pass then they were with Wickersham who can not – Colgate pass D is poor. Probably a close game, Richmond maybe wins.

Presbyterian off bye, were rolling before that, 41-0 445-277 vs Morehead. Earlier outgained Furman 444-370 and Mercer 416-241! Butler surprise win in OT at St Thomas, but only with 286y? Butler did have 376y the week prior vs Marist, that game had 4 4Q lead changes. 2024 Season finale, Butler 9-2 -9 at PC, lost by 3 and were outgained by 114y (PC ran for 288 7.4ypc). PC was just 5-6 at the time. Butler coach got hired away, pretty good new hire in Kevin Lynch, dad was former HC and starting QB here. Not a bad Pioneer team, kind of average. I assume PC keeps it going as road chalk, but will it be easy?

Dartmouth was 2-0 with both wins coming vs not the best, but 2024 playoff teams UNH and CCSU. Heard Zach McKinnel say that Dartmouth came out flat last week vs Penn? No, they led Penn 14-3. But then muffed a punt own 19 = Penn TD. Threw INT = Penn TD. Bad punt snap for a safety and like that Penn led 19-17! Another INT at own 28 led to another Penn TD and Penn led 33-24 outscoring Dart 33-7 (Penn had 17pts off just 63y of O plus the 2 pt safety so 19). Dart had yard edge 326-323 despite losing by 12. Dart outgained UNH by 71 and CCSU by 235! Think Saunier has potential to be pretty good. Saw first action vs Yale last year off the bench and led the rally to come back from 23pt 3Q deficit! Dartmouth being an upper half Ivy team is a given (finished 1st or Tied 1st/2nd 6 of last 7 years). Yale? Typically good, but more inconsistent (finished 1st or Tied 1st 4 of last 8, but other 4 years finished just 4th in league). The opener vs Holy Cross was a little rough, a lot of teams play rough games vs HC. They looked bad vs Cornell (outgained by 103y). Started slow vs Lehigh, trailed by 14 a couple times but played a little better the longer that game went but still lost by 18. Don’t understand potential road fav spot for Yale here. The D is not very good and O has been turnover prone (lost 6 TOs the last 2 games).

Wofford lives off of big plays, not good conventional O. 3 games this year they haven’t even been in the RZ at all! Have had less than 10 FDs the last 3 games! D is good enough to make teams earn their yards and points. Norfolk is still lost, but has found some O in 2 of the last 3. Must stay with Kuhns at QB. No O vs Wagner, go figure. They put in Carter in the 4Q and that went terribly. But 415y (6.8) vs Hampton last week and a season high 34 pts! 28 pts and 550 y (7.5) 3 games ago vs SHU. Then Wagner held them to just 288 (ssn low 4.1ypp). Norfolk led 14-3 and 21-10 last week, but Hampton got going and led by 10 most of 2H before winning by 7. Some projected lines, this would be the largest dog line vs FCS of the season for Norfolk, and to Wofford? I’ll take Norfolk, not sure Wofford is good enough on O to score enough to win by 3 scores, are they shutting Norfolk out?

CCSU off 3 straight buzzer beater games, went 1-2 in those. Tough stretch, but did come out on top in OT last week vs SHU. A team that used to win with D has lost their D. Allowed 437y to SHU, 524y to Dartmouth, 314 to Merrimack. Even going back 4 games their win vs SFU 31-7 was misleading – CCSU only had 300y (4.2)! 3 of their 4 TD drives in that one were under 35y! When CCSU doesn’t turn it over vs FCS, they win (2). When they do turn it over, their team isn’t good enough to overcome, they lose (2). RM really struggling to find any O at all. Just 263 (4.1) on Dayton and only 221 (5.1) vs Merrimack. Can’t back RM here, but have to be careful with CCSU as well when laying pts. 3 of 4 FCS games have been one score finals.