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Week 7 Discussion with look aheads as well

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
I did this a few weeks ago and I would like to stick with it. My apologies for not doing this last week. That was a busy all-around week, but we are here to 'work' this week...

Funny that I bemoaned not jumping on the Rams-Eagles 46.5 early line that came back out at 50.5. Of course we had that weird 2h today. Lucky, I guess...

CURRENT LINES posted by @VirginiaCavs down below



Anyways.,.

Byes for Week #7:

Bengals
Cowboys
Titans
Jets
Panthers
Texans

All lines courtesy of BETONLINE

Jacksonville -1 / 43 @ New Orleans

Tampa Bay -2.5 / 40 vs Atlanta

Las Vegas -1 / 46 @ Chicago

Cleveland -2.5 / 42.5 @ Indianapolis

Baltimore -2 / 44.5 vs Detroit

Buffalo -9 / 44 @ New England

Washington -1.5 / 41 @ NY Giants

Seattle -7 / 46.5 vs Arizona

Kansas City -6 / 52 vs LA Chargers

Green Bay -2.5 / 46 @ Denver

Philadelphia -2.5 / 54 vs Miami

San Francisco -7 / 45 @ Minnesota
 
Last edited:
The first thought here, scheduling wise -- San Francisco

They play week 6 in Cleveland and again go multiple time zones for the Minnesota game.

What a GREAT Sunday night game -- really looking forward to it!

We have road chalk in 7 of the 13 matches.
 
I have no idea why Jacksonville is favored on the road in New Orleans? That's crazy to me. Trevor reliably struggles against strong pass defenses and Etienne won't do much, either, methinks. But I don't think Saints will have an easy time scoring, either.

Commanders seem like a must with that small number at Giants. How many sacks are they going to get?!
 
Oct 16 Mon 2023

07:15 PM
277Dallas Cowboys-1½
-112		-130O 51
-111
278Los Angeles Chargers

+50 Markets		+1½
-108		+110U 51
-109
Oct 19 Thu 2023

07:15 PM
311Jacksonville Jaguars-1
-105		O 41½
-110
312New Orleans Saints+1 Markets+1
-115		U 41½
-110
Oct 22 Sun 2023

12:00 PM
451Atlanta Falcons+2½
+100		O 39
-115
452Tampa Bay Buccaneers+1 Markets-2½
-120		U 39
-105
12:00 PM
453Las Vegas Raiders-3
-115		O 40
-110
454Chicago Bears+1 Markets+3
-105		U 40
-110
12:00 PM
455Cleveland Browns-2
-115		O 39
-110
456Indianapolis Colts+1 Markets+2
-105		U 39
-110
12:00 PM
457Detroit Lions+2½
-110		O 43½
-110
458Baltimore Ravens+1 Markets-2½
-110		U 43½
-110
03:05 PM
463Arizona Cardinals+8
-110		O 46
-110
464Seattle Seahawks+1 Markets-8
-110		U 46
-110
03:05 PM
465Pittsburgh Steelers+3½
-118		O 42½
-110
466Los Angeles Rams+1 Markets-3½
-102		U 42½
-110
03:25 PM
469Green Bay Packers-1
-113		O 45
-115
470Denver Broncos+1 Markets+1
-107		U 45
-105
07:20 PM
471Miami Dolphins+2½
-110		O 53
-105
472Philadelphia Eagles+1 Markets-2½
-110		U 53
-115
Oct 23 Mon 2023

07:15 PM
473San Francisco 49ers-6½
-120		O 44½
-110
474Minnesota Vikings+6½
+100		U 44½
-110
 
Will get knee checked out
October 15, 2023
Following Sunday's 37-20 win over the Colts, Lawrence indicated that he feels okay, but noted that he is slated to get his left knee checked out , Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Per DiRocco, Lawrence indicated that he wasn't sure if he twisted his knee but did relay that there is some bruising. On the plus side, the QB wasn't sporting a wrap, sleeve or brace on his leg after Sunday's contest, but with the Jaguars heading into a short week, Lawrence's status will need to be monitored closely as Thursday night's game against the Saints approaches.
 
Totally agree. Thought TB -3/-3.5 for sure. They should have saved the creamsicles for this week.
 
At first glance I was all over Leos as dogs...but Leos look problematic against mobile quarterbacks dating to end of last year vs Fields and they allow the fourth-most yards to tight ends. On the other side, running back depth issues look worrisome against stout Ravens run D.
 
I won’t be betting Balt coming back from London but could see Leos dropping one here. I teased Det +10 with Seattle.
 
C-MAN said:
I won’t be betting Balt coming back from London but could see Leos dropping one here. I teased Det +10 with Seattle.
Click to expand...
I think teams are undefeated coming back from London. I read that traveling westward is easier on your body than traveling east
 
Will the scheduling catch up to jax tonight ? 2 weeks in London back for a game then short week on the road
 
Saints great at stopping the run. Not so great at pass rush. I feel like we are getting a very good team at a discount because of Trevor being banged up. Would they really risk having him play if he was that bad? Probably not given their aspirations this year.

On the other side we get the Saints with a banged up O line vs a good pas rush. We have Carr who struggles vs pressure. We have a Saints offense who are not gonna light up the scoreboard regardless.

I feel like it’s a good spot to take a chance that Lawrence’s knee is just all smoke and mirrors.
 
Coverdatspred said:
Saints great at stopping the run. Not so great at pass rush. I feel like we are getting a very good team at a discount because of Trevor being banged up. Would they really risk having him play if he was that bad? Probably not given their aspirations this year.

On the other side we get the Saints with a banged up O line vs a good pas rush. We have Carr who struggles vs pressure. We have a Saints offense who are not gonna light up the scoreboard regardless.

I feel like it’s a good spot to take a chance that Lawrence’s knee is just all smoke and mirrors.
Click to expand...
Really should be a classic Thur night where first to 20 wins
 
Coverdatspred said:
Saints great at stopping the run. Not so great at pass rush. I feel like we are getting a very good team at a discount because of Trevor being banged up. Would they really risk having him play if he was that bad? Probably not given their aspirations this year.

On the other side we get the Saints with a banged up O line vs a good pas rush. We have Carr who struggles vs pressure. We have a Saints offense who are not gonna light up the scoreboard regardless.

I feel like it’s a good spot to take a chance that Lawrence’s knee is just all smoke and mirrors.
Click to expand...
My main concern is just that I haven’t seen Trevor perform well against strong pass defenses
 
Really interested to see the Steelers offense this week coming off a bye with Dionte Johnson back and Warren expected to get more touches. Expect a few wrinkles and some points (finally).
 
rams offense couldn't score in 2nd half vs philly nor 1st half vs arizona - their pass game was actually very weak - that would be concerning to me. Simple handicap is stafford vs picket, mcvay vs canada but not that easy usually.

Arizona I think will be able to run on seattle- don't think seattle is a relieable favorite at all for survivor and if everyone is on them; u want to be off them

Falcons can't really run anymore; probably because everyone just stacks the box and makes them pass which is what you want them to do

Lions cant defend mobile quarterbacks and are due for a loss - have played a gauntlet of no bodys.

I'll pay to see giants put a competent game together twice. Not sold yet.
 
EL CAPO said:
rams offense couldn't score in 2nd half vs philly nor 1st half vs arizona - their pass game was actually very weak - that would be concerning to me. Simple handicap is stafford vs picket, mcvay vs canada but not that easy usually.

Arizona I think will be able to run on seattle- don't think seattle is a relieable favorite at all for survivor and if everyone is on them; u want to be off them

Falcons can't really run anymore; probably because everyone just stacks the box and makes them pass which is what you want them to do

Lions cant defend mobile quarterbacks and are due for a loss - have played a gauntlet of no bodys.

I'll pay to see giants put a competent game together twice. Not sold yet.
Click to expand...
Very interested in Arizona. It does look like Seattle pass defense has been putting together longer stretches of good play, lately

Agree on Lions. Tight ends also do well against them. I think it’s a good matchup for Ravens ‍⬛
 
C-MAN said:
Really interested to see the Steelers offense this week coming off a bye with Dionte Johnson back and Warren expected to get more touches. Expect a few wrinkles and some points (finally).
Click to expand...
How much action we expecting from Diontae?
 
50+ entries already for this week’s Quick Pick contest. Free to join, cold card cash! $

SNF Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles $$$ Quick-Pick Contest - $50 Winner Take All!

CTG QUICK-PICK CONTESTS We will occasionally be offering an NFL or NCAAF “Quick-Pick” contest, usually on prime time viewing games. 1. SIMPLE, free and easy entries (30 seconds or less) 2. WINNER TAKE ALL — $50! CONTEST #5 This week is Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 / 51.5 PICK...
cappingthegame.com cappingthegame.com
 
Tonight's line reeks regardless of -6.5 or -7

Seems like they are begging for SF money, could easily have set the number at 9.5 and gotten about the same action

Seeing early split of 81% SF and 19% Minny. Good thing there's a baseball game at the same time.
 
KJ said:
Tonight's line reeks regardless of -6.5 or -7

Seems like they are begging for SF money, could easily have set the number at 9.5 and gotten about the same action

Seeing early split of 81% SF and 19% Minny. Good thing there's a baseball game at the same time.
Click to expand...

Public doesn’t care that Trent, arguably the best player in all of football, is out.

They can scheme to make up for Debo being out.

A less than 100% CMAC is a problem.

They desperately need Greenlaw on defense. If he’s out (questionable now) they’ll be in trouble.

Kyle knows Kirk and they’ve done well vs him in the past. If JJ was playing I think the 9ers would lose. At this point I just want them to sneak out a W. Playing ML in exotics. No spread.
 
Inspekdah said:
Public doesn’t care that Trent, arguably the best player in all of football, is out.

They can scheme to make up for Debo being out.

A less than 100% CMAC is a problem.

They desperately need Greenlaw on defense. If he’s out (questionable now) they’ll be in trouble.

Kyle knows Kirk and they’ve done well vs him in the past. If JJ was playing I think the 9ers would lose. At this point I just want them to sneak out a W. Playing ML in exotics. No spread.
Click to expand...
Yeah there are so many moving parts to this game, seems like you could twist yourself into a pretzel trying to cap it and that's simply not worth it
 
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