Week 7 Discussion Thread

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

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-As goofy as they looked in the MNF second half, I think the Colts may be a live dog here...

-Minnesota and Baltimore should be more like -4, value with the Ravens...

-Dolphins and Jets already for 2nd time. Obviously revenge but also off a big win. Jets might have a letdown here after the small win streak and big Pats game. I wish Miami was off a loss, this would be a good spot.

-Road favorites are never something you seek out but man Carolina is only a FG at the Bears. Sign me up, in some shape or form. Team Total perhaps...

-As many have said, this Saints line is way inflated. This is a Packers bet or nothing.

-Skip to Sunday night. This is a good time for Atlanta offense to get 'healthy' so-to-speak. Team total here, most likely.

-Washington and Philly in an old-fashioned NFC East battle on Monday night. Two very solid to good teams. Line is about right, slight lean to skins though.
 
Right now Denver is a slight dog +1.5 playing in SD. I think it's an overreaction to the game Sunday night against the G-Men. SD has no HFA at this soccer stadium and I fully expect the line to be a Pick or Denver a slight fave maybe -1 come Sunday. We'll see.
 
Cards flew to England Monday night, I believe the Rams are in JAX until Wed then going. Both have bye weeks afterward as is normal.
 
cogenman said:
Right now Denver is a slight dog +1.5 playing in SD. I think it's an overreaction to the game Sunday night against the G-Men. SD has no HFA at this soccer stadium and I fully expect the line to be a Pick or Denver a slight fave maybe -1 come Sunday. We'll see.
Click to expand...

Couldn't agree more on this game. I had Denver as -3 last week before the Sunday nighter went down. I grabbed +1.5 but this seems like an excellent teaser spot also. I'm just floored the sharps haven't moved this line yet & it's sat at +1.5 flat for 48 hours.

Not too many other great teaser lines to pair this with. Pitt & Philly both at home but Philly due for a loss & Pitt losses games they should win so...
 
Denver jumps out at me also but some strange line movement there.

I am seeing that some books opened at Denver -1 and then moved within an hour to +1.5. If that's just an overreaction to both teams games on Sunday, its a big one. I know early lines often move on little more than air but that's a very significant move to the Chargers.

Still though, probably best to get on Denver early if you like it because I doubt it stays at +pts all week.
 
Other early thoughts...

OAK +3 vs KC Chefs on short week with travel. Off a game against a physical steeler team. Raiders looked awful against LA last weekend. I think this game will be close.

NO @ GB Stay away game. Hundley will have more time to prepare sure but they still have other injuries all over the place. OTOH New Orleans on grass with GB having a higher than avg HFA is not a situation I want to be laying points with.

IND +3 vs JAX I think Indy might still be undervalued. If I can get a 3.5 I may fire.

BAL +5.5 @ MIN Not sure I like it but line too high IMO. I would've made it 3.5 or 4.

NYG +5.5 vs SEA Not a great situation to bet but line too high IMO. Seattle won't be blowing the Giants out with their offensive issues. No higher than +3

ATL @ NE - agree with BARs thoughts. If the weather is ok, ATL TT over. Hopefully we get a 26.5 or better. 27.5 would be a lesser play.

SF +6 vs DAL - Dallas defence still crap, all kinds of distractions swirling around. SF has played every game close. They will win one eventually.

WASH +4.5 @ PHI Lean Washington here. I wouldn't have put this above 3.5.
 
cogenman said:
Right now Denver is a slight dog +1.5 playing in SD. I think it's an overreaction to the game Sunday night against the G-Men. SD has no HFA at this soccer stadium and I fully expect the line to be a Pick or Denver a slight fave maybe -1 come Sunday. We'll see.
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I don't think it a overreaction I think it the correct reaction that chargers probably the better team. Donks offense has started showing their true colors the last 3 weeks never topping 16 points now siemien banged up and sanders out. No fly zone has been more reputation than substance, only middle of pack in defensive efficiency against the pass. They very vulnerable to te's and chargers have a few, chargers wr corp is also getting really deep w the rookie getting healthy.

Agree about the HF, sad they playing in that dump w no support but on a nuetral lll happily take chargers basically just needing to win. Something they been finally figuring out how to do in close games.

I would say donks be a excellent team to put in a 6 point teaser. This sure to be no more than a 7 point game either way.
 
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BAR I agree with your first post about the panthers....the bears won in Baltimore but that was much more a product of Baltimore playing like ass.

KC/Oak is probably a stay away. Oakland is likely playing for their season

I really can't see any reason to stop fading Cleveland. Short week or not for Tennessee, Cleveland is terrible.

Value in Green Bay...Brees sucks outdoors and as much as I am not a Hundley fan, it is unfair to judge him off of last week on the rd vs a tough defense without any preparation.

Jacksonville at Indy is actually interesting...initial instinct says take the home dog but as athletic as Brisset is, that motherfucker telegraphs his passes like alexander graham bell. Jax defense could have an absolute field day with him.

I can't see the Jets beating Miami twice in a season...but not sure I want to lay the points with Cuntler and his 120 yards passing per game

Baltimore is such a garbage/weird team. They could beat anyone and they could lose to anyone. I think I stay away here.

SF loses every game by 3 or less so taking 6 with them seems like a no-brainer

Cincy and Pittsburgh seem to always play close games.

Agree with the above thoughts on Denver, but man. Siemian is baaaad. I predicted a nightmare season for Denver and while they started off hot, the wheels could be falling off a little...no play

Plays:

Carolina -3
Tennessee -5.5
GB +6
SF +6
Cincy+11.5/Seattle pk
 
I understand the thoughts bout saints on grass and outdoors but they are not only playing much improved defense (I tend to give them a bit of a pass on that second half last week w huge lead and against a lions team who always comes back) they also running the ball with physicality. Run game and defense travel, just weird saying that bout saints but I think it's accurate now.

I'm sure hundley be better but that team overall is not that strong, not sure how much protection he gonna get and surely don't think pack d is gonna stop saints, maybe if it was nov/dec in gb I'd feel different but here to me it saints or nothing. I think they can easily win this game by a td.
 
Good points 2da. With the Saints improvement on D and better run game, the old 'Saints on grass' angle is at least weaker than in the past if not gone at all.
 
Hulu said:
Good points 2da. With the Saints improvement on D and better run game, the old 'Saints on grass' angle is at least weaker than in the past if not gone at all.
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one other thing on my mind id love to hear everyone's thoughts on. I've never been entirely convinced McCarthy is all that great of a coach, imo Rodgers masks more things than deficiencies on the field. That said I'm not sure cause well Rodgers usually there. Off top of my head I don't recall how packers performed the other times double check been out for multiple weeks and they ran with backup? Seems they have had few backups do fairly well over the years now that I think about it.,
 
I don't mind that phins off a win, actually relieved to finally see the offense show some life in second half last week..honestly I expected this offense to be far better than they have showed thus far so just not confident with how I look at them. I think some of that can be contributed to their situation/travel schedule the 1st 3 weeks which was brutal.

Don't think that their poor performance can simply be wrote off but at same time man when you look at all the talent they have on the offensive side, Gase being a well respected offensive coach, and right or wrong I simply can't convince myself cutler is really that big a downgrade from tannenhill. Imo Moore wasn't a huge drop off and obviously gase felt bringing in cutler gave them a better chance.. I still think this team capable of challenging for a playoff spot, at same time they have been so mindboggling to me while I'd happily lay the fg the -3.5 scares me.
 
The Sunday night affair I certainly agree it should be a get right spot for atl offense, for the love of god matty ice throw Julio the damn ball more!! Why atl TT tho opposed to simply playing the game over? The way pats shredded this d after the half in the SB there no way I expect atl defense to be the unit getting the better of scheme/gameplan here. On surface game screams it gonna take 30+ to win. Haven't actually gotten to capping this game and making my number for total but seems like one of those "they can't set it high enough" games.
 
Bar pretty much my thoughts exactly on Monday night. Line is theoretically correct but still interested in the dog. I love philly, i been on philly bandwagon since day 1 this season (pretty sure I picked them as my NFC team in super bowl thread), that said I like skins as well and ultimately I'd back either of these teams catching 4.5 vs most the league.

At this point I think wentz has jelled better w his new weapons than cousins has his. Philly also with the stronger rushing attack. The defensive front 7s of both teams is why I'm so high on both along w both oline's being solid. Where I do think skins have a advantage is in the secondary, I havnt started getting into injury reports as of yet and I know skins starting to have a lot of injuries to that unit. That my one concern here and think gonna have to see the majority of them playing this week for me to pull trigger..
 
Hulu while I don't like the spot for kc and ultimately I hate this thu night crap so might just be a pass anyway, I can't help but feel like kc own the raiders much like steelers have the chiefs number.
 
Rodgers has not missed significant time since breaking his left collarbone on Nov. 4, 2013. That was week nine in a Monday Night Football game versus the Bears. The Packers had come into the game 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS. Including the loss to the Bears that night, they finished off their remaining schedule at 3-6-1 SU and 2-7-1 ATS, actually making it to the playoffs with an 8-7-1 regular season record.

They lost their first two games without Rodgers by the exact score of 27-13 to the Eagles and Giants in weeks 10 and 11.
 
Hulu said:
Other early thoughts...
ATL @ NE - agree with BARs thoughts. If the weather is ok, ATL TT over. Hopefully we get a 26.5 or better. 27.5 would be a lesser play.
Click to expand...

FWIW weather forecast around New England looks perfect right through the weekend.
 
austinhous said:
Rodgers has not missed significant time since breaking his left collarbone on Nov. 4, 2013. That was week nine in a Monday Night Football game versus the Bears. The Packers had come into the game 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS. Including the loss to the Bears that night, they finished off their remaining schedule at 3-6-1 SU and 2-7-1 ATS, actually making it to the playoffs with an 8-7-1 regular season record.

They lost their first two games without Rodgers by the exact score of 27-13 to the Eagles and Giants in weeks 10 and 11.
Click to expand...

Good stuff, I couldn't really remember. Pretty sure I was thinking back before McCarthy even became coach when I was thinking of pack backups that had little success. Lol.. Out of curiosity do you happen to know who was their backup in '13?
 
I'm on Chicago here at 3.5....

DVOA gives the advantage to the Panthers, but using the same metrics Carolina has played the 4th toughest schedule and Chiacgo the 5th. Yards per play offensively and defensively, these teams are virtually identical. Offensively Car 5.0, Chi 4.8. Defensively both 4.9. Almost 90% of the tickets on Carolina yet the line has crept from 4 to 3 in some spots. I'll take the home team and the points.

I do like the Colts like some here

I love the under tomorrow night.
 
Capaholic said:
I'm on Chicago here at 3.5....

DVOA gives the advantage to the Panthers, but using the same metrics Carolina has played the 4th toughest schedule and Chiacgo the 5th. Yards per play offensively and defensively, these teams are virtually identical. Offensively Car 5.0, Chi 4.8. Defensively both 4.9. Almost 90% of the tickets on Carolina yet the line has crept from 4 to 3 in some spots. I'll take the home team and the points.

I do like the Colts like some here

I love the under tomorrow night.
Click to expand...

Panthers feel very similar to packers last week. They begging for panthers money with that line.
 
KC v. OAK - I think the Chiefs bounce back here. The Raiders are showing their true colors. Their D is still awful, and offensively their run game is not as good as advertised. (possible play)
TENN v. CLEV - Tennessee should win here, but not sure if they will cover. Cleveland is a mess, getting worse by the week. Flip-flopping QB's back and forth, just a mess.
JAC v. IND - Have you guys noticed the trend? The Jags are an "every other week" team, as in they show up every other week. This is the week they show up. (possible play)
CIN v. PITT - This game should be close, divisional matchup. Bengals offense is much improved since the coordinator change. Could be a let down spot for the Steelers after the Chiefs win. (staying away)
BALT v. MINN - The Vikings D will negate any offense the Ravens have. If Case Keenum plays, I may make this a play. (possible play)
NYJ v. MIA - My initial gut feeling says Jets, but this is a divisional matchup - so too unpredictable i feel. (staying away)
TB v. BUFF - This is my play of the week. Large bet here. Buffalo is fresh off the bye, playing at home, and has one of the best D's in the league. Famous Jamis is not 100%. (big play)
CAR v. CHI - Carolina should bounce back here. The Panthers D is stout, and could give the rookie Trubiscuit a lot of trouble. (possible play)
NO v. GB - I still don't trust the Saints, don't care what anyone says. Hundley has more time to prepare this time, and there isn't exactly a lot of game film on him - which is an advantage I feel. The Saints playing outdoors has always been an angle for me, their play is not as fast-paced on grass outdoors. May take the points here, and/or tease the Pack up. (possible play)
ARI v. LAR - The Cards are a completely different team when they are able to run the ball between the tackles like they did with AD - and in a good way. The key to beating the Rams is to run the ball down their throats. I may make a play on the Cards at +3.5 or better, and will probably pass otherwise. (possible play)
DAL v. SF - It pains me to say this, but the Niners should cover here - and just may win outright. The Dallas D cannot stop anyone, and our o-line is just not the same as it was last year, two pieces changed - and Tyron Smith is not fully healthy. The Niners have kept every game under 3 points. This is another good teaser leg. (possible play)
SEA v. NYG - Too unpredictable for me. (staying away)
DEV v. LAC - I don't see the Chargers winning any games at the StubHub Center. I think they're worth a flier against some teams on the road, but not at home. The Chargers will keep it close, as always, and find a way to lose the game at the end. Denver wins. (possible play)
ATL v. NE - staying away
PHI v. WASH - I can see this going either way, both teams are REALLY good. (staying away)
 
I feel like the total in Green Bay is a tad high at 47.5. The early forecast is calling for temps in the low 60s and possible rain. That could hamper the Saints a little.
Also first game after a major injury, the defense could step it up. Need to think on this one for a bit but at first glance I like the under here.
 
The NFL managed the end of game well to make sure Raiders got their win. The league is pretty laughable sometimes even if those were penalties, didnt call it that tight till game was over and still trying to get Raiders win. SMH
 
Well it took a while but I think it's evident the Berry injury will keep KC from being a true contender.

Nobody is as bad as they looked last week.....Carr proved he is fearless and will make the throw. Cooper still dropped gimme balls and Oakland may be better off without Lynch.

My initial thoughts on potential buy low sell high market plays- be forewarned they are ugly

Browns- Many had Cleveland last week to cover the line vs the Texans and ran into a buzzsaw... Now everyone saw the Titans dominate 2ndh running all over the Colts. Mariota is back, but he's stiff and limited- I suspect Cleveland will get after him with the pass rush. I realize the Titans could run all over the Browns and dominate defensively but will they? Could be a closely played game especially if Cleveland gets to Mariota early.

Ravens- Just lost at home to a rookie qb the offense only put up 10 points and they had 3 turnovers. Took a kick AND punt return for tds to even get it close and the run d was a sieve. How on earth can you back them vs a solid defense? Vikings off a great defensive performance that many may discredit because of the Rodgers injury- I don't, but stop short of thinking they should be more than 4 pt faves here. Good qbs bounce back off trash performances, Chris Moore should help out the passing attack but it would be nice to have Maclin. Still watching the injury report here there are a ton....
 
"I saw Marshawn come out there; that's his cousin. Chris Long did that thing to his brother a couple years ago. Marshawn wasn't doing anything. He was just trying to protect his cousin, get his cousin to the sideline. They're real close, they're more like brothers than cousins, they're real close. He's going to learn. Marshawn's smart, he's going to learn from that moving forward."

Some players have apologists lined up to rub their back. He is not smart. He is dumb as a rock but so is that entire organization.
 
Yeah, lex,,Berry injury is huge in so many ways, guy was such a leader. I tore my right achilles the May before last. It was devestating. These guys that come back from these types are unbelievable. I cant imagine he will tho.
 
They were going to keep extending that game last night, until the Raiders won. SMH.

On another note, the Chiefs "bend-and-don't-break" defense was atrocious.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
The NFL managed the end of game well to make sure Raiders got their win. The league is pretty laughable sometimes even if those were penalties, didnt call it that tight till game was over and still trying to get Raiders win. SMH
Click to expand...

Couldn't agree with you more sir, and the NFL could not have made any more obvious - it disgusts me. SMH
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
The NFL managed the end of game well to make sure Raiders got their win. The league is pretty laughable sometimes even if those were penalties, didnt call it that tight till game was over and still trying to get Raiders win. SMH
Click to expand...

That's why they called a push off on a touchdown with 0 time left when the Raiders would have won the game

To make sure the Raiders would win

Officiating was bad last night but those dots don't connect
 
guaranteeed said:
That's why they called a push off on a touchdown with 0 time left when the Raiders would have won the game

To make sure the Raiders would win

Officiating was bad last night but those dots don't connect
Click to expand...

No doubt guarantee. Im more trying to say calling all of those penalties in a row, at the end was weird. Crab was def push off, they had to call it, had to, less comfortable with Chief holds, but I hear you.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
No doubt guarantee. Im more trying to say calling all of those penalties in a row, at the end was weird. Crab was def push off, they had to call it, had to, less comfortable with Chief holds, but I hear you.
Click to expand...
It seemed pretty clear what you both were insinuating but I understand the frustration. Just want to second teeds comment about the pushoff they called on Oakland that was extremely soft. The final touchdown was more of a pushoff than the one that got called.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Browns- Many had Cleveland last week to cover the line vs the Texans and ran into a buzzsaw... Now everyone saw the Titans dominate 2ndh running all over the Colts. Mariota is back, but he's stiff and limited- I suspect Cleveland will get after him with the pass rush. I realize the Titans could run all over the Browns and dominate defensively but will they? Could be a closely played game especially if Cleveland gets to Mariota early.
Click to expand...

After losing money on the Brownies 2 weeks running I am hesitant to back them again but generally agree the spot is decent. Problem is they are going back to Kizer after trying out Hogan last week. I'm not sure if Hogan is banged up or if they just realized he is no better. But Kizer has historically bad stats and is plainly not an NFL QB. Now he has been benched for a week which may damage his confidence (assuming he had any). Additionally, I get the sense this team doesn't want to play for him after he left the field due to a migraine a couple weeks back plus the fact that he flat out sucks. When they brought Hogan off the bench 2 games ago, the entire team showed a lift which is a sign, to me, that they want a change. Going back to Kizer just takes the wind out of their sails.

I can't understand why they won't go to Cody Kessler after all this. At least he is barely capable and really couldn't be much worse. Had they done that, I might've considered it but Kizer in unbettable.
 
Cooper's push off on his first TD was the most egregious IMO.

Another big week of home dogs, 7 (incl.last night) plus a pick'em with the Chargers.

Ten-Cle - Mariota is nearly 100% by reports. Browns go back to Kizer. Titans or nothing for me. Good to see their 4 min offense provides some backdoor cover potential.

Jax-Ind - Lenny F with a tweaked ankle is a worry, but Ivory is a good backup. Jax secondary is scary good. Under feels like the play here, lots of running from both sides.

Bal-Min - Diggs a question mark, sounds like Balt gets their NT back. Tough to predict how Ravens will play, but I think they bounce back here. Ravens + points if Diggs can't go.

NYJ-Miami - Rematch of earlier Jets win. That alone has me leaning Fins. Don't know how they scored 20 in the 2nd half last week but I think the good play will carry over. Fins -3

Bucs-Bills - Fitz or Winston, game time decision. Matthews back for the Bills? Not sure. Pass

Car-Chi - Benjamin questionable with a knee (Looks like he'll play). Without him Panthers lose their explosiveness. Luke may play (Nope, ruled out). Bears are funny, wins have been 40+, losses tend towards unders. Pass.

NO-GB - Brett 2.0 is a mystery. Pass

Ari-LAR - All Day giving Arians some balance on offense. Peterson nicked up. Not a fan of either defense, seems like over is the way to go.

Dal-SF - Zeke saga gets a two week break. Niners have been knocking on the door. CJ Beathard, who he? Lee looks like he'll be back. Garcon loves play Dallas. Dallas off the bye is usually infuriating. Can we squint and pretend its the early 90's here? Pass

Cin-Pitt - Bengals get two weeks to get ready for this and they were on the improve before the bye. Squeaky wheel in the Burgh this week has been Martavis, watch for him to go off. Over looks OK here.

Sea-NYG - Still don't know how McAdoo pulled that off last week. Seattle off the bye, hard to know what we'll see. Pass

Denver-LAC - Donkeys have to be smarting but KC loss could lift their spirits. I think they get it done here. Donks pick'em.

Atl-NE - Gonna sit back and enjoy this, probably live bet on whoever falls behind.
 
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Lex you seem to know bills pretty well. What you think of that total? 45 seems a touch high imo. Bucs defense been bad but don't think bills have the passing game to truly exploit them. Tampa has talent at every level of their d, they really should be better than they have shown, seems like good bounce back spot for that side of the ball. Offensively I don't much care who plays qb for them, bills defense more than capable of slowing whoever under center down. Bills only allowing a 66 passer rating against and been excellent in the red zone only allowing tds 33% of the time. I dont have either team above 20, conceivable it ties at 20 and next fg wins but that still under.
 
2daBank said:
Lex you seem to know bills pretty well. What you think of that total? 45 seems a touch high imo.
Click to expand...

I think it's going over. The total looks high because it is, actually it's higher than any point total the Bills have put up this season. TB hasn't really shown they can stop the run, and MCCoy hasn't been able to break out.... I think that changes today. Bills defense has looked downright nasty at times, but I think a little regression is in order. As good as White is at CB, they will struggle with elite wrs this season. AJ killed them, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Evans do the same. Buffalo has been crushing the turnover battle, which can't continue forever. TB pts allowed otr so far this season has been terrible, and even with no Clay I could see the offense scoring IF the running game is rolling. Oleary will get targets and though he is not Clay, he has decent hands. Looking like Jordan Matthews is a possible go as well. Sounds dumb but to me the biggest concern is the TB kicking game, but with Folk gone maybe they will have their K. Haushka has been pretty automatic.



FWIW this game scares me, don't think I can eat the chalk here
 
Browns are 0-6, but interesting zig zag result developing this season:

Week 1: 3pt loss
Week 2: Blow out loss
Week 3: 3pt loss
Week 4: Blow out loss
Week 5: 3pt loss
Week 6: Blow out loss
Week 7: ?????
 
Well damn lex, I feel silly asking your opinion on it and being against you. Lol. I honestly felt like under 45 was one of best values on totals on board today. I certainly agree shady will have a good day (probably as much in passing game as rushing) Don't disagree w Evans either, I just don't feel these guys getting theirs is gonna equate to either putting up a big number. I understand you having trepidation bout bills, I have both teams scoring right at 20 so I think it very close game. Imo 43 about as high as this one goes unless we see some scores from defenses or special teams.

Thank you for taking the time to respond I appreciate it. kills me you like over, I feel like I'm smarter about the bills from reading your weekly thoughts on them! Gl with your plays.
 
Going crazy again this week with dogs/points/MLs, feels like I can make a case for every one of them including Cleveland lol....talk me off the ledge there
 
KJ said:
Going crazy again this week with dogs/points/MLs, feels like I can make a case for every one of them including Cleveland lol....talk me off the ledge there
Click to expand...

Can't do it...I'm on the ledge with you. 5 dogs and 1 fav on my card today.
 
Its a tough card this week. Dug last night and decided to sleep on it.

Ravens and bengals are two my head says yes. Fear says no
 
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