Week 7 ~ Bases

[mrpickem]

It's a new day, let's get hot :cheers4:

• 953 New York Mets -102
• 956 Chicago Cubs -223
• 959 Detroit Tigers -109

REDS 1-10 as home dog vs lefty since 2017
View attachment 32345

Home favs over 200 after road loss are 20-2 last 3+ years (excluding SEPT)
View attachment 32344

Moore and Fulmer are night and day different early season pitchers since 2016

View attachment 32343

 

[tuck321]

Honestly the Tigers look good to me as well but the REAL DEAL who seems to hit about 60 percent is betting the other way. 0 idea how he caps

 

[Inspekdah]

Honestly the Tigers look good to me as well but the REAL DEAL who seems to hit about 60 percent is betting the other way. 0 idea how he caps

Who is the "REAL DEAL"

 

[mrpickem]

• 951 San Francisco Giants/Philadelphia Phillies Over 9 -105

Knight top over ump around and Smardz been lousy so far.
https://goo.gl/6cmg5R

 

[tuck321]

Posts at the RX. Large bettor. Honestly no idea how he wins but every year a solid winner

 

[mrpickem]

• 957 Washington Nationals -167
• 961 Houston Astros -1½ +120
• 961 Houston Astros -132
• 961 Houston Astros/Oakland Athletics Over 8½ +100
• 957 Washington Nationals -1½ +100

 

[mrpickem]

I took Nats despite the following trend that has produced over 80% ROI over last 4+ years

Away fav over 140 off win in 1st game of series vs opp winning less than 40% including NL only and omitting SEPT

 

[mrpickem]

last night 8-1

• 904 Cincinnati Reds -138
• 904 Cincinnati Reds -1½ +150
• 921 Minnesota Twins/St. Louis Cardinals Over 8 -115
• 922 St. Louis Cardinals -172
• 911 Boston Red Sox +188
• 911 Boston Red Sox +1½ -120

Home fav of 130 or more with 2 bad starters(whip > 1.50) and home starter off quality start

HF and line <= -130 and o:STDSWHIP > 1.5 and STDSWHIP > 1.5 and season > 2014 and s:QS
SU: 24-7 (2.35, 77.4%) avg line: -159.1 / 147.8 on / against: +$1,346 / -$1,416 ROI: +27.2% / -45.7%

RL: 18-13 (0.85, 58.1%) avg line: 130.7 / -146.6 on / against: +$1,015 / -$1,277 ROI: +32.3% / -28.3%

OU: 18-12-1 (0.39, 60.0%) avg total: 9.2 over / under: +$515 / -$825 ROI: +15.5% / -23.6%



https://goo.gl/DCTbjA
View attachment 32353

 

[spooks]

:cheers3:

Great night....tailed

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 922 St. Louis Cardinals -1½ +110

 

[smo1a]

Congrats! Nice find on the Reds. Good luck today!

 

[mrpickem]

Hoye in Toronto...has been rough on home team https://goo.gl/KgNJXF

 

[mrpickem]

• 915 Seattle Mariners -1½ +145
• 915 Seattle Mariners 1.877
• Seattle Mariners [J. Paxton must start.] -vs-
  Toronto Blue Jays [M. Stroman must start.]
  Over 8 @ 1.862 (E)
  

https://goo.gl/otPvDv without starter previous quality start is still damn good

View attachment 32367

 

[mrpickem]

• 908 San Diego Padres +106
• 908 San Diego Padres +1½ -150

Take your pick... Richard at home vs team over 500
or
Away favorite of 130 or less vs team under 38% win and starter off bad start(over 5er in 5inn or less)

 

[mrpickem]

yesterday 5-6

• 952 Cincinnati Reds +106
• 953 Miami Marlins +200
• 957 Washington Nationals/San Diego Padres Under 7½ -115
• 963 Houston Astros -165
• 971 Cleveland Indians -150

View attachment 32373

 

[mrpickem]

• 957 Washington Nationals -135
• 968 New York Yankees -143
• 969 Seattle Mariners +108
• 965 Kansas City Royals/Baltimore Orioles Over 10 +100

 

[BenchCoach]

gl tonight...like that over in Balty and da Yanks

 

[mrpickem]

5-4 yesterday after 4-1 on early board

• 902 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +155
• 902 Philadelphia Phillies -129

Basically PHI is 64-46 at home vs lefties last 5+ years, if you add DAY to mix, % goes up but sample size goes down. I'm starting to believe small sample sizes can be real crap shoot, so I demand at least 100 game sample size moving forward as primary reason. https://goo.gl/CrDaA5

Also, here's a query for todays starters I been fooling with..gives rest, rest last 3, k's p/9 last 2, temp last game and avg margin when starter in last 3...still a work in progress but does provide some good info https://goo.gl/iSCLhE

 

[mrpickem]

• 905 Milwaukee Brewers +135
• 913 Kansas City Royals/Baltimore Orioles Over 10½ -115
• 914 Baltimore Orioles -108
• 911 St. Louis Cardinals -139
• 915 Boston Red Sox +115

E-Rod is 14-2 in APR-May over last 3+ year. As bad as Tillman is Kennedy worse.
SL ~ https://goo.gl/k2i4ZX
HOU ~ https://goo.gl/9rKatm (Fri)

 

[mrpickem]

7-0 Thurs

• 952 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +163
• 952 Philadelphia Phillies -135
• 961 St. Louis Cardinals -138
• 975 Texas Rangers/Houston Astros Under 8 -105
• 980 Chicago Cubs -229

Phil still hits lefties well, even though Matz has solid 7-2 record on Friday, Jake is good too at 10-6
Hamels has pitched well and Verlander has been unreal only allowing 3 runs once in 7 starts with ridiculous 0.52 whip
StLoo is good road favorite that also handle weaker teams (<40%) well https://goo.gl/k2i4ZX
Chubs off 3 gm sweep of lowly fish, but Chatwood is 9-1 on Fri and Fulmer has not showed much and Sox have bad pen..Cubs TT over probably as well once it's releasef

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Way to grind pickem

Great day yesterday. Solid.

 

[mrpickem]

• 973 Seattle Mariners -150
• 973 Seattle Mariners -1½ +105

HD and season > 2011 and SG > 1 and WP < 42 and o:WP > 58 and 4 < month < 9 and s:L

https://goo.gl/Xi6Xn7

 

[mrpickem]

• 960 Arizona Diamondbacks +188
• 960 Arizona Diamondbacks +1½ +105

View attachment 32410

 

[mrpickem]

Very sturdy long term trend for Pads, but I already played cards earlier so I'm gonna stick with SL, but will add

• 962 San Diego Padres +1½ -130
• 961 St. Louis Cardinals/San Diego Padres Under 8 -110

https://goo.gl/7cdkNk

This identified Mets and Padres...ML, RL and Under...so I'll just see how it does.

 

[mrpickem]

fri 3-6

• 903 New York Mets -1½ +110 https://goo.gl/k2i4ZX / https://goo.gl/Za8gEp
• 903 New York Mets -143 https://goo.gl/yguhYv
• 915 Oakland Athletics/New York Yankees Under 9 +105 https://goo.gl/VQauqy
• 918 Toronto Blue Jays +112 https://goo.gl/jBb1mn
• 919 Kansas City Royals +193 https://goo.gl/HXpmp1
• 925 Texas Rangers/Houston Astros Under 8½ -120 https://goo.gl/Xyyf1k

​

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

So cool how you link to your reason. You are a good man. GL capper

 

[mrpickem]

• 905 San Francisco Giants +124
• 907 Atlanta Braves -138
• 922 Detroit Tigers +138 GM1
• 934 Detroit Tigers +104 GM2
• 928 Los Angeles Angels -128

All these off this query https://goo.gl/Us58B8 (Defense angle with 27% more double plays turned = 61% and 19% ROI
View attachment 32416

except Halos https://goo.gl/6PgbST
View attachment 32415

 

[mrpickem]

sat 4-5

NYM 2.11 https://goo.gl/QprMvW
CUB 1.4 https://goo.gl/mHJE4A
SEA 1.543 https://goo.gl/szSdWU
HOU U9 2.01 https://goo.gl/1x49aY

 

[Inspekdah]

Hey bud got in an argument with someone over big favorites.

How are big favorites favoring this year? Last year? I thought you posted something recently about their ROI.

 

[mrpickem]

Hey bud got in an argument with someone over big favorites.

How are big favorites favoring this year? Last year? I thought you posted something recently about their ROI.

Depends how big, a number I like is 166 or higher ..only about 6% ROI https://goo.gl/1WvZTj
Favs over 300 are getting killed so far 2-4 -56% ROI and 1-5 above 305
So if u combine both lined from 171 - 305 favorites, they profit 8.8% with 107-39 record
F and -170 > line > -305 and season = 2018
SU: 107-39 (1.95, 73.3%) avg line: -212.0 / 190.7 on / against: +$2,686 / -$3,426 ROI: +8.8% / -23.5%



added play

963 Washington Nationals +116