WEEK 6

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
one unit

Hokies -3' L


smaller

Kan St +6' W
BColl +6' L
Purdue +10 L
Iowa St +2'/ML L
Cal +3/ML L
TCU +5 live W
-----------

UCF +3' L
EMU +10' W
ULM +12 L
Navy TT over 30 W
Irish TT over 41' L
Akron +7' W
Fla +12/UNDER 49' ouch
Cinn TT over 27' W

TCU - 0.5 3Q L



leans



NMX l
SDSU w
Louisville ? l
NIU? l
Miami,F
TCU
FIU l
 
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What the line 'should be' - not considering wagering, spot, injuries, etc
>> RAW numbers mostly this time - minor adjustments for week 5 action - shaded to SP+ as always

I'll adjust (in bold) and add notes as we go .........



THURS 10/2

303 SAM HOUSTON ST
9:00 p.m.
304 NEW MEXICO ST -1'


FRI 10/3

305 CHARLOTTE
7:00 p.m.
306 USF -26

307 WKU -1'
7:00 p.m.
308 DELAWARE

309 NEW MEXICO
10:00 p.m.
310 SAN JOSE ST -3

311 WEST VIRGINIA
10:30 p.m.
312 BYU -20

313 COLORADO ST
10:30 p.m.
314 SAN DIEGO ST -7


SAT 10/4


315 OREGON ST
12:00 p.m.
316 APP ST -3

317 AIR FORCE
12:00 p.m.
318 NAVY -14

319 COASTAL CAROLINA
12:00 p.m.
320 OLD DOMINION -16'

321 KENTUCKY
12:00 p.m.
322 GEORGIA -20

323 UTSA -7
12:00 p.m.
324 TEMPLE

325 KANSAS -1
12:00 p.m.
326 UCF

327 IOWA ST -2
12:00 p.m.
328 CINCINNATI

329 VIRGINIA
12:00 p.m.
330 LOUISVILLE -6

331 WASHINGTON -3
12:00 p.m.
332 MARYLAND

333 WISCONSIN
12:00 p.m.
334 MICHIGAN -17

335 CLEMSON -12
12:00 p.m.
336 NORTH CAROLINA

337 MINNESOTA
12:00 p.m.
338 OHIO ST -23

339 BOSTON COLLEGE
12:00 p.m.
340 PITTSBURGH -4

341 WAKE FOREST
12:00 p.m.
342 VIRGINIA TECH -7

343 CENTRAL MICHIGAN -5
12:00 p.m.
344 AKRON

345 OHIO -14
12:00 p.m.
346 BALL ST

347 EASTERN MICHIGAN
12:00 p.m.
348 BUFFALO -10

349 WESTERN MICHIGAN -13
12:00 p.m.
350 UMASS

351 JAMES MADISON -22
12:00 p.m.
352 GEORGIA ST

353 ULM
12:00 p.m.
354 NORTHWESTERN -10

355 TULSA
12:00 p.m.
356 MEMPHIS -20

357 SOUTH ALABAMA
12:00 p.m.
358 TROY -2'

359 MICHIGAN ST
12:00 p.m.
360 NEBRASKA -12

361 MIAMI, OH -2'
12:00 p.m.
362 NIU

363 OKLAHOMA ST
3:00 p.m.
364 ARIZONA -17'

365 DUKE -1'
3:00 p.m.
366 CALIFORNIA

367 PENN ST -28
3:00 p.m.
368 UCLA

369 TEXAS -7
3:30 p.m.
370 FLORIDA

371 MIAMI, FL -7
3:30 p.m.
372 FLORIDA ST

373 ILLINOIS -12
3:30 p.m.
374 PURDUE

375 VANDERBILT
3:30 p.m.
376 ALABAMA -12

377 FAU
3:30 p.m.
378 RICE -5

379 TEXAS TECH -13
3:30 p.m.
380 HOUSTON

381 COLORADO
3:30 p.m.
382 TCU -14

383 KANSAS ST
3:30 p.m.
384 BAYLOR -2'

385 ARMY -12
3:30 p.m.
386 UAB

387 SYRACUSE
3:30 p.m.
388 SMU -10

389 FIU
3:30 p.m.
390 UCONN -10

391 BOISE ST
3:30 p.m.
392 NOTRE DAME -16

393 KENT ST
4:00 p.m.
394 OKLAHOMA -45

395 MISSISSIPPI ST
6:00 p.m.
396 TEXAS A&M -10

397 UNLV -4
7:00 p.m.
398 WYOMING

399 TEXAS ST -12'
7:00 p.m.
400 ARKANSAS ST

401 NEVADA
10:30 p.m.
402 FRESNO ST -17
 
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57 SOUTH ALABAMA
12:00 p.m.
358 TROY -2'

B.A. what’s your thoughts here? I plan to dig further—but looks like Troy Starter QB is ?? And USA appears to have the edge rushing the ball and Troy run d appears vulnerable. I’ll dig more data—but of course I’d love to hear your angles.
 
57 SOUTH ALABAMA
12:00 p.m.
358 TROY -2'

B.A. what’s your thoughts here? I plan to dig further—but looks like Troy Starter QB is ?? And USA appears to have the edge rushing the ball and Troy run d appears vulnerable. I’ll dig more data—but of course I’d love to hear your angles.

STAY AWAY!

S Alabama playing for the 6th straight week - 3rd road game in a month / Troy off a come from behind win over Buffalo, then a BYE.

On the surface - Jaguars look like a strong team ready to break out. Even games stat wise - with Auburn, NTX, and Tulane (lost by 2). O is solid - D stinks, but NTX and Auburn didn't move the ball well. The problem is they ain't a very buttoned up team..... finishing drives (O and D)....special teams ......field position ......turnovers (lead nation in fumbles) - all among the nation's worst - the mark of a poorly coached team.

Troy D is much better, as is ST - and they're slightly better that SA at most everything else, BUT their O is terrible with the bu QB (Tucker Kilgrease) < dude even spells his last name wrong ha. Against Memphis, they didn't cross MIDFIELD until 2 minutes left in the game!
>> Troy has dominated the series (6-0 su/ats) before a big win by SA last year - and have had this one circled (rivals) claiming (that loss) ended their season LY..... HC is emotional about it.

I would think off the bye, Troy figures out a plan to move forward with their bu QB, and wins this one - OR SA figures out a way to lose it, historically they stink on the road. If you like it, just wait for a live/2H play - you might be able to get SA at a TD or more - I would expect Troy starts fast here (they were up AT Clemson 16-3 at the half). I might play Troy 1H/SA 2H.

BOL this week buddy ..........👊
 
Thoughts on the AF TT over and/or the game total over since you like Navy TT? AF appears to have found a good QB that can actually throw the ball.....Szarka throwing about 75% which will keep Ds at bay.....but they can also run the ball (as usual)......their defense is brutal for sure.....this looks like a 42-24 type game.....
 
Thoughts on the AF TT over and/or the game total over since you like Navy TT? AF appears to have found a good QB that can actually throw the ball.....Szarka throwing about 75% which will keep Ds at bay.....but they can also run the ball (as usual)......their defense is brutal for sure.....this looks like a 42-24 type game.....

Just play the OVER if you like AF .... Navy is almost sure to move the ball / AF D is ridiculous - LAST in yards/play - #125 SP+ / Navy D #54

edit: that 19'/20 does sure look low doesn't it?.... TT are dangerous IMO - they seem to always look off, even in a game I don't like either side ...
 
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STAY AWAY!

S Alabama playing for the 6th straight week - 3rd road game in a month / Troy off a come from behind win over Buffalo, then a BYE.

On the surface - Jaguars look like a strong team ready to break out. Even games stat wise - with Auburn, NTX, and Tulane (lost by 2). O is solid - D stinks, but NTX and Auburn didn't move the ball well. The problem is they ain't a very buttoned up team..... finishing drives (O and D)....special teams ......field position ......turnovers (lead nation in fumbles) - all among the nation's worst - the mark of a poorly coached team.

Troy D is much better, as is ST - and they're slightly better that SA at most everything else, BUT their O is terrible with the bu QB (Tucker Kilgrease) < dude even spells his last name wrong ha. Against Memphis, they didn't cross MIDFIELD until 2 minutes left in the game!
>> Troy has dominated the series (6-0 su/ats) before a big win by SA last year - and have had this one circled (rivals) claiming (that loss) ended their season LY..... HC is emotional about it.

I would think off the bye, Troy figures out a plan to move forward with their bu QB, and wins this one - OR SA figures out a way to lose it, historically they stink on the road. If you like it, just wait for a live/2H play - you might be able to get SA at a TD or more - I would expect Troy starts fast here (they were up AT Clemson 16-3 at the half). I might play Troy 1H/SA 2H.

BOL this week buddy ..........👊
Thanks BA—and thanks for the deep info.
STAY AWAY!

S Alabama playing for the 6th straight week - 3rd road game in a month / Troy off a come from behind win over Buffalo, then a BYE.

On the surface - Jaguars look like a strong team ready to break out. Even games stat wise - with Auburn, NTX, and Tulane (lost by 2). O is solid - D stinks, but NTX and Auburn didn't move the ball well. The problem is they ain't a very buttoned up team..... finishing drives (O and D)....special teams ......field position ......turnovers (lead nation in fumbles) - all among the nation's worst - the mark of a poorly coached team.

Troy D is much better, as is ST - and they're slightly better that SA at most everything else, BUT their O is terrible with the bu QB (Tucker Kilgrease) < dude even spells his last name wrong ha. Against Memphis, they didn't cross MIDFIELD until 2 minutes left in the game!
>> Troy has dominated the series (6-0 su/ats) before a big win by SA last year - and have had this one circled (rivals) claiming (that loss) ended their season LY..... HC is emotional about it.

I would think off the bye, Troy figures out a plan to move forward with their bu QB, and wins this one - OR SA figures out a way to lose it, historically they stink on the road. If you like it, just wait for a live/2H play - you might be able to get SA at a TD or more - I would expect Troy starts fast here (they were up AT Clemson 16-3 at the half). I might play Troy 1H/SA 2H.

BOL this week buddy ..........👊

Thanks for the deep dig checking near the door, BA! Perception is not always reality for me, so I wanted to view your take. Admittedly, I’m usually market-driven playing numbers, and the 2.5 looked soft and SA has played inside or around “the number/line” in just about every game. Looked attractive…

Good luck to you this week! As always, I’ll be following.
 
STAY AWAY!

S Alabama playing for the 6th straight week - 3rd road game in a month / Troy off a come from behind win over Buffalo, then a BYE.

On the surface - Jaguars look like a strong team ready to break out. Even games stat wise - with Auburn, NTX, and Tulane (lost by 2). O is solid - D stinks, but NTX and Auburn didn't move the ball well. The problem is they ain't a very buttoned up team..... finishing drives (O and D)....special teams ......field position ......turnovers (lead nation in fumbles) - all among the nation's worst - the mark of a poorly coached team.

Troy D is much better, as is ST - and they're slightly better that SA at most everything else, BUT their O is terrible with the bu QB (Tucker Kilgrease) < dude even spells his last name wrong ha. Against Memphis, they didn't cross MIDFIELD until 2 minutes left in the game!
>> Troy has dominated the series (6-0 su/ats) before a big win by SA last year - and have had this one circled (rivals) claiming (that loss) ended their season LY..... HC is emotional about it.

I would think off the bye, Troy figures out a plan to move forward with their bu QB, and wins this one - OR SA figures out a way to lose it, historically they stink on the road. If you like it, just wait for a live/2H play - you might be able to get SA at a TD or more - I would expect Troy starts fast here (they were up AT Clemson 16-3 at the half). I might play Troy 1H/SA 2H.

BOL this week buddy ..........👊
Nice write up BA …. 😳
Horns at Gators? Feels like a smash and grab for Texas….10+ pt win.
 
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added a few small ....

Cal +3
Akron +7'
Fla +12/UNDER 49'


CAL - could go either way - I like both teams, rough spot for Duke with travel/late nite - homecoming for Cal
Zips - CMU has won 2 of last 17 road games - last MAC road win was 11/22 - Zips 7/10 MAC home dog - 7' is a lot in a really ugly low scoring game
Gators - like side and under a bit - should have hit the 7


LIVE/2H/leans


Virginia, or Louisville - either comes back - Cards probably win
Terps
Clemson live/2H - UNC might beat 'em?
Ohio State - Buckeyes start slow again?
WMU
Penn St - slow start likely?
Vandy
FAU
TCU - they roll late
Kan St/Bears over
SMU- may take awhile to wake up
 
added a few small ....

Cal +3
Akron +7'
Fla +12/UNDER 49'


CAL - could go either way - I like both teams, rough spot for Duke with travel/late nite - homecoming for Cal
Zips - CMU has won 2 of last 17 road games - last MAC road win was 11/22 - Zips 7/10 MAC home dog - 7' is a lot in a really ugly low scoring game
Gators - like side and under a bit - should have hit the 7


LIVE/2H/leans


Virginia, or Louisville - either comes back - Cards probably win
Terps
Clemson live/2H - UNC might beat 'em?
Ohio State - Buckeyes start slow again?
WMU
Penn St - slow start likely?
Vandy
FAU
TCU - they roll late
Kan St/Bears over
SMU- may take awhile to wake up
Let's have a great Saturday B.A.
 
cfbstats.com is a great reference for quarter splits (rushing/passing) - under 'situational'
>> it gives you an indication of how a coach calls the game, and how they play (start strong, or slow / finish strong or fade)

TCU rushing splits on O - 1Q > 4Q
* 4.0 > 4.0 > 9.7 > 2.3
* D- 3.9 > 3.5 > 3.2 > 3.7

For scoring splits : Team Rankings
 
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