WEEK 6

Like Louisville here at home, off loss in which they outgained ND 437-283 (TO's killed em) - Ponies off 2 impressive wins, but weak on the road usually - Cards monsters at home - line was 10 at FD earlier

Will have lines up later this morning
 
added at BO

App St +2

*don't think it does anything but drop - they will probably close as a favorite here - about a 10 pt swing from early season
>> ASU off 2 losses - then off LW - Herd played well LW, but typically terrible at home.
 
bookieassassin said:
Like Louisville here at home, off loss in which they outgained ND 437-283 (TO's killed em) - Ponies off 2 impressive wins, but weak on the road usually - Cards monsters at home - line was 10 at FD earlier

Will have lines up later this morning
Click to expand...
Yeah. Likely to be a letdown more than momentum. I drove through campus 2+ hours before the game. Never seen anything like it at SMU.
 
added one unit play at BM

Navy -7'

This one should be at least 10 - SP+ says 13
>> hard to believe (I didn't - had UAB last week) how much better Navy is - they literally do everything well - while AF stinks in all facets of the game.

SP+ Navy #57 O / #60 D / #31 ST ........ AF 128 - 71 - 111 (71 too high)

yards/pt margin - Navy #12 / AF #127
Navy is #1 in RZ O 100% / #21 RZ D - zero lost fumbles - they do allow rush yds, but limit explosives (#14) - they are even the #1 rated passing team
 
Thoughts on S Car 1st H when released (should be +5ish)? Off a bye catching Ole Miss hitting the road after losing as 17 point favs at home.....Dart and crew should face similar issues vs SC.....SC a bad quarter away from being 4-0....should be a good environment.....
 
added at BM

TREE +10

worst spot ever for the Hokies?
>> tough/ physical home game vs Rutgers - 900 mile road game / horrific loss at Miami - now 2500 mile trip to Tree laying TEN?

No picnic for Tree either unfortunately - off Clemson road (rushed for 250) - at Cuse before that / Irish on deck......

Line is an overreaction to Clemson 'blowout' IMO - and should be 6/7 max
 
bookieassassin said:
added at BM

TREE +10

worst spot ever for the Hokies?
>> tough/ physical home game vs Rutgers - 900 mile road game / horrific loss at Miami - now 2500 mile trip to Tree laying TEN?

No picnic for Tree either unfortunately - off Clemson road (rushed for 250) - at Cuse before that / Irish on deck......

Line is an overreaction to Clemson 'blowout' IMO - and should be 6/7 max
Click to expand...
Maybe Tree 1st H a solid play while VT is still groggy?
 
bookieassassin said:
added one unit play at BM

Navy -7'

This one should be at least 10 - SP+ says 13
>> hard to believe (I didn't - had UAB last week) how much better Navy is - they literally do everything well - while AF stinks in all facets of the game.

SP+ Navy #57 O / #60 D / #31 ST ........ AF 128 - 71 - 111 (71 too high)

yards/pt margin - Navy #12 / AF #127
Navy is #1 in RZ O 100% / #21 RZ D - zero lost fumbles - they do allow rush yds, but limit explosives (#14) - they are even the #1 rated passing team
Click to expand...
Agree HIGHLY here.
 
sorry boys taking it easy this week - working on week 7 - fade or ignore me probably for another week or 2 - (off worst week in over 20 years)


added small

Cal +10'
CCaro -4'
Ark St +3' / ML
Hawaii +3 / ML
Virginia +1
NW +14
*bumped up Louisville

Cal - off bye, RB Ott should be healthy - Game Day - Cal D actually matches up fairly well here / O should move the chains - horrible spot for flaky Canes and shaky coach - missed early number or larger play

CCaro- (-113 at BM) - off bye, ODU off road upset of BG - SP+ has this at 13

Ark St - (BO) -off bye, SA off road games at App St and confidence destroying loss at LSU - I look for ASU to bounce back this week (before bye / road games with Michigan and Iowa State) - OVER might be better play.....

Hawaii (BO) - off BYE, SDSU off tough road loss - in HC Chang's 3Y, Hawaii seems to be in a good spot to stay close or win this one - note UH with large havoc edge - loss at SH not looking too bad

Virginia - (H -111) - extra small - Cavs off bye, with Louisville on deck - BC off tough game with WKU, and a string of tough, physical games

NW - (-114 at H) - extra small - NW off bye - Indy hasn't won there since 1993 - hoping they can ugly this one up

leans

Miami, O
WF
NW
UCF ML
SJSU?
TT ??
Tenn
A&M
ArkSt/SA over
 
Last edited:
Rusty Trombone said:
Thoughts on S Car 1st H when released (should be +5ish)? Off a bye catching Ole Miss hitting the road after losing as 17 point favs at home.....Dart and crew should face similar issues vs SC.....SC a bad quarter away from being 4-0....should be a good environment.....
Click to expand...

Why AX me, your instincts are better than mine 100% ha .......

No doubt - Ole Miss's confidence has gotta be shattered? - I would think a slow start, then come back late to win a close game - 1H UNDER might be better?

TREE I'm not sure about - check health of their QB .....if back-up plays their O might start slow

BOL this week buddy
 
Da Bows?! Big rival SDSU…will be Polynesians all over, and most likely a pig buried in the parking lot Emu style cooking…. Only other rival comes close is UNLV…all local guys playing choose one of the three. Unless they can score Oregon!

I like it as an upset, something smells funky with this SDSU squad. Warriors have been exciting, let’s cash it
 
bookieassassin said:
Why AX me, your instincts are better than mine 100% ha .......

No doubt - Ole Miss's confidence has gotta be shattered? - I would think a slow start, then come back late to win a close game - 1H UNDER might be better?

TREE I'm not sure about - check health of their QB .....if back-up plays their O might start slow

BOL this week buddy
Click to expand...
No offense, but is the word or spelling "ask" not used anymore for some? Sorry, just a pet peeve of mine
 
bookieassassin said:
Why AX me, your instincts are better than mine 100% ha .......

No doubt - Ole Miss's confidence has gotta be shattered? - I would think a slow start, then come back late to win a close game - 1H UNDER might be better?

TREE I'm not sure about - check health of their QB .....if back-up plays their O might start slow

BOL this week buddy
Click to expand...
Ha! I've found that those that don't seek wisdom usually don't find it.....bouncing ideas off others can lead you down new paths, stop you in your tracks, or confirm your original hypothesis.....

BOL BA
 
SMALL

Frogs/Houston 2H OVER 27'

I think Frogs at least make a game of it, and move the ball 2H - Coug's 'terrible' O is averaging over 7 yards/play with new QB
 
adding SMALL

MIKE GUNDY -2'
Ole Miss / S Caro 1H under 27

Okie St - (-116 at H) - just a hunch that Gundy figures out how not to lose 3 games / row ......vs a team he dominates (8-1 su/ats) - line should be at least 5 - will look to play OVER live/2H- Pokes might start slow ....

SC - think they compete for awhile (at least) - Rebels might pull away late - Ole Miss D should limit SCaro O
 
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