(from last week's thread)
looking ahead to Week #6...
A&M @ Alabama
TAMU off Messy, with a bye on deck. Bama off Ark, with Tenny on deck. Revenge game. Bama's L4 at hm vs A&M were blowouts. L4 have gone over too. I'm not on Bama in week five, but I will be here.
Arkansas @ Miss St
Hogs off Bama, with BYU next. Messy off A&M, with Kentucky on deck. Hogs have won L2, and have taken 2 of L3 in Starkville. Hm team 2-7 ATS in series.
Tenny @ LSU
Vols off a bye, with Bama on deck. LSU off Aubbie, with Florida next. LSU has won L5 meetings, but haven't met since '17. Already have a definite lean here, but since I'll be praying for a good line, I'm not gonna jinx it now.
Auburn @ Georgia
Aubbie off LSU, with Ole Miss next. UGA off Mizzou, with Vandy on deck. UGA has won 5 straight, which won't stop. Also won & covered L7 at hm vs Tigers. This will be a beat down, but also the under is 12-3 since '08. In other words, UGA will be pitching a shutout.
S Carolina @ Kentucky
Cocks off FCS, with a bye next. Cats off Ole Miss, with Messy next...as Mississippi sandwich. UK has won 7 of L8, and covered 8 of L9. 6 of L7 played under too. I should be on them B2B weeks.
Ohio St @ Mich St
tOSU off Rutgers, with a bye next. Sparty off Maryland, with Wisky on deck. Ohio St is 15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS, including 6 straight wins and 5 straight covers. Will be on the Buckeyes so long as the line isn't ridiculous.
Michigan @ Indiana
UM off Iowa, with Penn St on deck. Indy off Nebby, with Maryland next. Michigan is 4-7 ATS since '09 in series, and the hm team has won 7 of L11 SU/ATS. Indiana has only won twice since I've been alive though, '87 and '20.
Purdue at Maryland
Purdue off Maryland, with Nebby on deck. Terps off MSU, with Indiana next. Rd team 0-2 SU/ATS. Terps 1-6 SU, 0-7 ATS vs B10 West teams.
Iowa @ Illinois
Iowa off UM, with a bye next. Illy off Wisky, with Minny next. Iowa's won 13 of L14 in series, including 8 straight (but 5-3 ATS in those). Hm team is 4-4 SU, but only 1-7 ATS in L8 as well.
FSU @ NCST
Noles off WF, with Clemson on deck. Pack off Clemson, with Cuse on deck. NCST has won 4 of L5, and is 16-4-1 ATS in series. Hm team is 9-2-1 ATS as well. On the bad side, NCST is 1-6 ATS after Clemson. But if they come out of that game healthy/decent, FSU is 2-4 SU, and 0-6 ATS in Raleigh. I've played FSU a lot this year, and like the team...but as long as Leary doesn't shit the bed...and even though I'm on Clemson this week...I'm already leaning hard to backing NCST here. All comes down to whether I can stomach Leary and that offense, as well as a decent line.
Louisville @ Virginia
Ville off BC, with a bye next. UVA off Duke, also with a bye next. UL is 1-4 SU/ATS at Virginia. Hm team is 6-2 SU/ATS. And the under has hit the L6 straight. Homecoming, and UVA has taken the L2 between them. But can they start to get back on track?
UNC @ Miami
UNC off VT, with Duke on deck. Canes off a bye, with VT next. Canes have lost 3 straight to UNC. Dog is 13-5 ATS with 8 upsets. Hm team is 5-6 SU, 7-4 ATS. Also 4 straight overs in series, with the L2 coming in at 88 and 87 pts respectively. Considering the season to date, and it's square AF, but gotta look over right?
VaTech @ Pitt
VT off UNC, with Miami next. Pitt off GT, with a bye next. Another homecoming. Pitt is 13-2 ATS vs VT, and the L3 have been wins of 20+ pts. Hm team is 13-4 ATS in series too. Only way that stops here is if Pitt isn't focused during the soft part of their schedule.
Texas @ Oklahoma
Horns off WVU, with ISU next. Sooners off TCU, with Kansas on deck. Only once since '14 has the RRR not been decided by 8 pts or less. Horns have only won 3 times since '10, but are 7-3 ATS since '13 all as the dog.
Texas Tech @ Okie Lite
TT off KSt, with a bye next. Boys off Baylor, with TCU on deck. Okie Lite has won 11 of L13 SU, but are only 2-6 ATS in L8. Rd team is on a 9-3 ATS run.
Kansas St @ Iowa St
KSt off TT, with a bye next. ISU off Kansas, with Texas on deck. ISU has won 3 of L4, but lost 10 straight before that.
TCU @ Kansas
TCU off Oklahoma, with Oklahoma St on deck. An Okie sandwich, which doesn't sound good or appropriate. Kansas off ISU, with Sooners on deck. TCU 9-1 SU, but 3-7 ATS in series. Rd team is 4-6 ATS. Kansas has covered 7 of L10.
Utah @ UCLA
Utes off the Beavs, with Trojans on deck. Bruins off the Huskies, with a bye next. Utah has gone 9-2 ATS in L11, including 5 straight by an average of 27 ppg. Rd team is 1-3 SU & ATS though. The only thing going against Utah for me however is that they can't help but look ahead to the USC game. That game will determine the South, so gotta take that into consideration. Otherwise, the Bruins are simply outclassed.
Wash St @ USC
Wazzou off Cal, with Beavs on deck. SC off ASU, with Utah on deck. SC has won 12 of L14 in series, going 9-5 ATS. Hm team has won 3 of L4, and 2-2 ATS. Wazzou though is 3-1 L4 ATS at USC. And more importantly, SC will be looking ahead to Utah as well.
UW @ ASU
UW off UCLA, with Zona in deck. ASU off USC, with a bye next. ASU has won 12 of L14, going 13-1 ATS in the series. Huskies have lost 7 straight on the road to ASU. Before things went sideways at ASU, this was a horrible spot for Washington. Will that continue with these specific teams? Have to see how ASU keeps playing, but no way would I want to lay a ton of points on the road with that history.
Oregon @ Arizona
Ducks off Stanford, with a bye next. Zona off Colorado, with UW on deck. Hm team has won 6 of L7, going 5-2 ATS. Ducks have lost 2 straight SU & ATS in Tucson. Also, Ducks have won 9 of L12 in series, but 6-5-1 ATS.
Oregon St @ Stanford
Beavs off Utah, with Wazzou on deck. Tree off Ducks, with ND next. Beavers won LY for the first time since '09. Stanford has won 11 of L12 in series, including 5 straight at home (3-2 ATS).
USF @ Cincy
Hm team has won 7 of L10, 7-2-1 ATS. Cincy has won L4, but 0-3-1 ATS.
Houston @ Memphis
Cougs won LY ending a 5 game losing streak to Memphis. Memphis has won 5 of L6 in series SU & ATS.
Notre Dame @ BYU
Domers off a bye, with Stanford on deck. BYU off Utah St, with Arkansas on deck. ND has the trends, but these two haven't met since '13. First neutral site meeting, and it's in Las Vegas. Don't like having an SEC team on deck, but definitely leaning towards BYU (who I've backed multiple times TY).
Fresno St @ Boise St
L4 have gone under, with 38 pts on average. Fresno 2-5 SU vs Boise, but 5-2 ATS.
Wyoming @ New Mexico
Wyoming has only covered 2 of L9 meetings, and have been upset in the L2 games. L4 have also gone under.
UNLV @ SJST
San Jose is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in series. Hm team is 5-1 SU & ATS in L6.
Geo Southern @ Geo St
GSt has won 5 of L7, but in this rivalry the L4 wins all at 7 pts or less.
MTSU @ UAB
Hm team is 6-2 SU, 4-2 ATS. L4 meetings have been outright upsets, so play the dog.
WKU @ UTSA
UTSa beat them twice LY, 52-46 and 49-41. Conf title game rematch, and looks like another over to me.
Ball St @ CMU
Rd team has won and covered 5 straight in series. Ball St is 7-0 ATS in L7 at CMU. Ride or collide, as Hunt would say.
Kent St @ Miami Ohio
Hm team is 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS...and 4 of L5 in series have been upsets, so another dog to play.
I'm running out of steam, lol...but just some more situational tidbits in preparation for the following week. I didn't bring these final two games up yet, because they're not really intriguing matchups...but fwiw, I'm already also leaning towards Florida over Missouri and Duke over GT...depending upon the lines/etc.
another week of some great calls, and just as many horrible calls (UGA, Pitt, Cal to name a few). fully into October now, so well past time to get this thing moving forward and making gains each week.
Stanford hasn't won a Pac-12 game in forever it seems, and has looked awful. Historically, however, they've owned this series, including 5 straight at home. Another one where you'll have to plug your nose, but if the +7 rises...and if Nolan is out...might have to take a flyer here as well, even with ND on deck. It's ugly, I know...but before LY, the Beavs hadn't beaten Tree since the last time my Yankees won a ring...and lemme tell you, it seems like a gotdamned lifetime ago.
