Week 6 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Sorry for the late start. Had work on the West Coast this week and the redeye flight didn't go as planned. Glad to be home and joining everyone in our degeneracy(is that a word?)

Had a bad week again last week, 8-9, which brings the season total to 35-38 in a desperate push to catch our good friend the mighty coin flip. I mentioned in the thread last week that the injury snafu hurt last week because I never would have played Indiana without their top 2 receivers, and Florida State had a couple guys sit out that I understood were playing. Ultimately, nobody puts a gun to your head, so you assume all risk as the bettor. Another reinforcement that you get what you deserve ultimately.

I'm sitting out Friday again, but I do have a few thoughts. First, Rutgers is a home conference dog, so it would usually be an auto play against the Knights for me, but the opponent is Nebraska, who has lost 14 of their last 15 games away from Lincoln and remains on my "do not play under any circumstances" list. You can also make a decent technical case for Rutgers as their defense has been solid, especially against the run. I think Casey Thompson will need to have a very good night throwing the ball for Nebraska to have success on offense, and let's just say I'm a bit skeptical of that. Nebraska's defense remains terrible, as they gave up yards and points to an Indiana team without any of their playmakers last week, so they are capable of getting gashed by anyone, yes even the Knights. It's a pass for me since I can't bet on Rutgers in this role, but I certainly won't toss any cash in the Nebraska furnace either.

No way in God's green earth I would recommend a side in the Houston/Memphis game.

Ditto Colorado State/Nevada, though maybe we'll see some fisticuffs because there is some major acrimony between those two teams regarding Jay Norvell's thief in the night exit from Reno.

When I first looked at the UNLV/SJSU line I thought it was too high but after further review, if someone put a gun to my head, I'd probably lay the 6.5 with the Spartans. Although I like the potential of the UNLV offense with those two receivers, they've both been banged up the past couple weeks and as result, Brumfield has come back to earth a bit. They're also going to be steeping up in the caliber of defense they're playing this week as the Spartans have totally stuffed WMU and Wyoming in the past two weeks. SJSU quietly is off to a nice start and when you look at their remaining schedule, there's not much standing between them and a really nice year. Chevan Cordero is a decent QB...I'm not playing it, but 6.5 doesn't seem all that unreasonable at this point.

By the way, how bad is the Mountain West? Colorado State, Nevada, Hawaii, New Mexico and Utah State are all borderline embarrassments, either on one side of the ball or both. Boise might catch a rebound from Dirk Koetter, but they were just blown out by UTEP two weeks ago. San Diego State's passing game is at a mediocre 6th grade Pop Warner level. Fresno State, considered the runaway favorite, now has the indignity of losing outright to UCONN. That leaves only UNLV, San Jose State, Air Force and Wyoming(and a win over Tulsa is the only thing keeping them from being in the embarrassment category) as potentially mediocre teams. I've always been a fan of the Mountain West, but this league is hideous this year.

Purdue +3.5 WIN
Kansas +7 PUSH
Missouri +11 WIN
Mississippi State -9 WIN
USF +27 WIN
UCLA +4 WIN
Texas Tech +9 LOSS but if you waited a couple hours you got a WIN
Navy +6 WIN
Duke -3.5 LOSS
Ohio State -27 WIN
James Madison -11 WIN
Kentucky -5 LOSS
USC -12 WIN
BYU +4.5 LOSS
Florida State +3.5 WIN
Alabama -24 LOSS
Arizona +14 LOSS

10-6-1

1. Purdue +3.5(-115) @Maryland: Obviously I always look for reasons to back Jeff Brohm as a road dog, but I was a little surprised that this line was this short. Maryland has really good numbers, especially on offense, and I think people are acknowledging it, but this line has not moved up. Maryland appears to have a really nice edge against the Purdue pass offense (and no wonder because they covered Michigan's receivers like a blanket a couple weeks ago) but Purdue's passing game is like a Chinese water torture. Yards per pass play is kind of irrelevant for teams like Purdue and Mississippi State because they just keep completing short passes and move the chains. Also, Maryland struggles to stop the run, and I was really impressed with Purdue RB Devin Mockobee last week. He sliced through the Minnesota defense with no problem and looked Leaps and bounds better than King Dorue and some of the other backs they've trotted out there. Also, Purdue's defense has proven to be more than adequate, and I think Locksley and company are due for a bit of a clunker. Purdue as a road dog: Never a bad idea.
 
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Thank you for saving me from supplying furnace tinder. Quite eloquent breakdown of a miserable Friday night card. Ive been burnt recently playing on the running rebels and vs the Spartans. Line is likely right near the number. Look forward to the rest of the card as always.
 
Had I known Vedral was going to play tonight, I might have taken the points with Rutgers. He's really not terrible.
 
2. @Kansas +7 v TCU: I'm thinking this might the only time I go against the Horned Frogs, and it pains me to do it, but now that this line is at 7(and you can get 7.5 if you want to lay -120), I'm a buyer. TCU has been devastating on offense, but the majority of that work has come on the ground, and the Kansas defense has been good against the run, ranking 38th in yards per attempt against. Max Duggan has been great, but there's been some rumors that he got a little banged up on his last TD in the 4th quarter of their blitzkrieg of Oklahoma last week so we might see Chandler Morris. Morris isn't bad, but he's no Duggan IMO, so that will bear watching. It seems like everyone is waiting for Kansas's bubble to burst, and for the most part it did last week, but guess what? The Jayhawks still won, this time on the back of it's bend but don't break defense. That's just the sign of a well coached team in my opinion. Yes, there's enough tape on Kansas and Jalon Daniels now, but does anyone think Lance Leipold is just going to continue with the status quo and not adjust? I'm a huge fan of TCU DC Joe Gillespie, but he's not going to whipsaw Leipold. It's true that TCU appears to be the better team, but 5-0 home dogs have a fantastic record over the years and TCU is in a hell of a sandwich spot with Oklahoma State on deck, Gameday or no Gameday. Kansas has proven themselves worthy, 7 points is too good to pass up here.
 
3. Missouri +11 @Florida: Missouri has to get up off the mat here and shake off a couple of tough losses in back to back weeks, but I think there's value in Drinkwitz's squad here. The fat ass kicker will probably blow a couple field goals this week after making kicks left and right last week against Georgia that ultimately meant nothing. In all seriousness, Missouri has been pretty good on defense, and held Georgia's offense out of the end zone for all but about 5 minutes of the game last week. Brady Cook is by no means good, but he competed well against Georgia and made some plays against a defense that is light years better than the Florida squad he's going to face this week. He might not need to be that good for the Mizzou offense to hav success because the Florida defense is 118th against the run, and although the Tigers didn't try very hard to run against Georgia, their backs ran it 15 times for 126 yards. I think both Schrader and Peat (assuming he doesn't cough it up over the pylon a few times) should have success. In addition to their poor run defense, Florida also sucks on 3rd down and doesn't get much pressure on opposing QBs, so the fragile Cook shouldn't be too uncomfortable. Mizzou has been close to wins the past two weeks, and I'm sure they feel they're due They've had success in the past in Gainesville, and Florida has done very little to give any reasonable person much confidence that they can cover this number. I'll take the 11 here.
 
4. @Mississippi State -9 v Arkansas: I typically like to back the Hogs, especially after Sam Pittman has stabilized things nicely there, but it appears that this is the absolute wrong time to be backing them. First, Mississippi State is rolling. They torched what had been a pretty good A&M pass defense last week, and as I've mentioned, any time Leach has a 3rd year starting QB, they roll to at least 10 wins. That's nice, you might say, but why are they going to cover double digits against a good SEC team? Well, Arkansas might not be that at all right now, on either side of the ball. KJ Jefferson is an extremely valuable part of their offense, and he is questionable for this game with head trauma. They are stopping short of calling it a concussion, but he's not 100%, and one hard hit will likely take him out of the game. Mississippi State's D is solid, but they are morons, good for at least a couple boneheaded personal foul per game, so Jefferson will probably take a dirty hit or 3. If he's out, they are screwed. Their backup apparently got in the dog house and is pouting, so they have a USF transfer who never saw the field there who is next up. That's about an 8-10 point hit if that happens if you ask me. Defensively, the Hogs are helpless to stop this Leach passing attack, or their rushing attack, or any fake punts or fake field goals. They rank 101st or worse in every defensive category and their secondary is so banged up Will Rogers biggest problem will be to make sure he evenly distributes his throws so none of his receivers feel left out. 9 is a lot, but something will have to go very wrong for the Bulldogs not to roll here. If I were Pittman, I'd punt on this game and try to keep my guys relatively healthy for the rest of the season
 
5. USF +27 @Cincinnati: I've found a bit of a trend with this USF program for now. When they are getting a few points, or what I would call a "reasonable" amount of points, they get drilled. When they get a lot of points, say 24 or more, it seems to lull the opponent to sleep and there never seems to be any point where the better team(Cincy in this case) plays with any urgency. I think that is the kind of game we'll be looking at here. When you take a look at this Cincinnati team, they outgained Miami(OH) by almost 300 yards, gave up less than 200 yards of offense but had to score late to get a 21 point win. They only outgained Indiana by 45 yards, and had to score late to cover a 16 point spread. Last week they gave up almost zero rushing yards and played a Tulsa team with a QB playing on one leg and they only won by 10. I guess my point is that their scoreboard results have been an underachievement compared to how they matched up with teams, so there's no reason to expect anything different this week. There's no way they can be jacked up for this game. Although USF has looked terrible in spots, they played Florida to a standstill the last time they were dogged this severely and although he hasn't been great, I still think Gerry Bohanon has some good moments left in him. I'm thinking this one ends up something like 37-17, but it's not out of the question that USF can be in this game late like they were at Florida.
 
6. UCLA +4(-115) v Utah: Last week when I was writing some opinions on the Friday games I mistakenly erased the paragraphs then was too lazy to re-write it, but trust me, I liked UCLA to beat Washington, and for a lot of the same reasons, I like UCLA again this week. Like everyone else, I have a healthy respect for Utah and especially Cam Rising, but there's some assumptions I used to make and most people still make about Utah that might not necessarily be the case. First, I used to think Utah was exceedingly well coached and they played like it on the field. This was challenged a couple times last year, and again in the opener against Florida this year. In that Florida game, there were remedial containment responsibilities blown, horrific tackling attempts and blown coverages all over the field. Things haven't changed that much the rest of the year either, as the Utes rank only 58th in yards per play against and are actually 85th against the run. Zach Charbonnet and DYR should have good success against this defense, and with UCLA doing a great job against the run themselves, (7th in yards per attempt against), you can make a strong case that the Bruins have the edge in the trenches. Even last week, in what appeared to be a blowout victory over Oregon State, the Utes were outgained, out first downed and played to a standstill on a per play basis by the Beavers despite playing with a backup QB for the majority of the game. They're also without their best receiver, TE Brett Kuthie, a guy who has led them in receptions and yards in each of the past 2 seasons and did this year until he went out. Much of their offense revolves around him, so he'll be a big absence. The Utes also have a home showdown and likely Gameday date with USC next week, so it's not the best spot for them. UCLA is balanced on both sides of the ball, and when you match these teams on paper, it looks like the wrong team is favored. I'll take the points in that case.
 
Br@ssknux said:
4. @Mississippi State -9 v Arkansas: I typically like to back the Hogs, especially after Sam Pittman has stabilized things nicely there, but it appears that this is the absolute wrong time to be backing them. First, Mississippi State is rolling. They torched what had been a pretty good A&M pass defense last week, and as I've mentioned, any time Leach has a 3rd year starting QB, they roll to at least 10 wins. That's nice, you might say, but why are they going to cover double digits against a good SEC team? Well, Arkansas might not be that at all right now, on either side of the ball. KJ Jefferson is an extremely valuable part of their offense, and he is questionable for this game with head trauma. They are stopping short of calling it a concussion, but he's not 100%, and one hard hit will likely take him out of the game. Mississippi State's D is solid, but they are morons, good for at least a couple boneheaded personal foul per game, so Jefferson will probably take a dirty hit or 3. If he's out, they are screwed. Their backup apparently got in the dog house and is pouting, so they have a USF transfer who never saw the field there who is next up. That's about an 8-10 point hit if that happens if you ask me. Defensively, the Hogs are helpless to stop this Leach passing attack, or their rushing attack, or any fake punts or fake field goals. They rank 101st or worse in every defensive category and their secondary is so banged up Will Rogers biggest problem will be to make sure he evenly distributes his throws so none of his receivers feel left out. 9 is a lot, but something will have to go very wrong for the Bulldogs not to roll here. If I were Pittman, I'd punt on this game and try to keep my guys relatively healthy for the rest of the season
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Tough one

You betting Baton Rouge? Love to hear thoughts
 
twinkie13 said:
Tough one

You betting Baton Rouge? Love to hear thoughts
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No play for me there. I've been wrong on LSU all three times I've bet them so I know when to say when. Well, usually I don't but I'm doing it this time. If I had a lean it would be with Tennessee, but there's a cosmic force that would work against the Vols if I backed them as a favorite in Baton Rouge. LSU's effort at Auburn last week frankly made me want to vomit. They won, but they did the bare minimum. There's about 65 teams in the country that would have done the same thing spotting that Auburn team that lead. For example, ECU would have come back and beat them, Duke would've, Washington State would've, you get the point. I give them zero credit for that because they should have lost. Kelly looks like he's capable of inspiring only by fear or getting the team to win to spite him. On paper, Tennessee looks like they should win, but so did Mississippi State, and we know what happened to my ticket in that one. Not interested in the same fate, so I'm laying off.
 
7. Texas Tech +9 @Oklahoma State: I wanted 10 or 10.5, but I'm good with 9 here, and if you want you can get 9.5 with minimal additional juice. I'm actually kind of surprised this line is this low given Okie State's ranking, record and result from last week, and that may tell us something about this one. Texas Tech is one of those teams that always looks worse in my numbers than they should because they don't wow you on a per play basis on offense. That's because Kittley's offense is all about lots of completed passes. Handicapping this one also reminded me that the Red Raiders definitely should have covered earlier this year in Raleigh when I was on them at +10. The outgained the Wolfpack by 85 yards in that one and held them under 300 yards but a late Donovan Smith pick 6 and a couple of dunce cap plays on potential backdoor drives kept me in the poorhouse that night. The Raiders have outgained everyone on their schedule...in addition to NC State they cranked out almost 500 yards against two defenses significantly better than the one they're gonna play this week in Texas and Kansas State. Oklahoma State is the latest team that we complain isn't worthy of being ranked in the top 10, but shit, someone has to be ranked there, and the Cowboys are as good a candidate as anyone. That last sentence is actually false if you look closer at their results. Now before I go into criticism of Gundy's team, please allow me to acknowledge how solid he is ATS. I've made a lot of money backing the Cowboys over the years, but this is mostly when they are catching points. Looking at their schedule, they've beaten Baylor at Baylor(good job there), Arizona State, Pine Bluff and Central Michigan. CMU, who has gone completely downhill since, piled up 546 yards and 44 points against them. ASU's Emory Jones, who we know to be a relatively feeble passer chalked up 9.29 yards per attempt and 18.6 yards per completion against them. The Cowboys are ranked 118th against the pass in yards per attempt and their about to face a team that will probably throw it 50+ times. ASU, Central Michigan and Baylor are hardly juggernauts in the passing game...there's no doubt the Red Raiders will be the best pass offense they've seen, and Okie State, you can argue will be easily the worst pass defense the Raiders have faced. On the other side of the ball, Okie State and Spencer Sanders will have some success but as I mentioned, Tech held down NC State's offense very well on the road, and played well enough against Kansas State and Texas to outgain both of those solid squads. OSU has TCU, Texas and K State lined up after this, so it isn't a great spot. Taking dogs in this league is likely going to be a profitable move, considering there's no gimmes, so I'll keep doing it here.
 
8. @Navy +6 v Tulsa: I'm always happy to find reasons to bet the service academies and especially when I get to back my old friend Coach Ken. Navy is terrible against the pass on a per play basis, ranking 130th in yards per attempt, but even with that being the case, they're only giving up 23 points per game because they've been very good in the trenches on defense and great in the red zone, keeping teams out of the end zone and forcing field goals instead. Both of Tulsa's QBs are banged up and they can't run it(112th), so a lot of shotgun inside the 10 might continue the FG trend here. Also, Tulsa has been getting pushed around in the run game when they're on defense (108th) so navy should be in their element. Navy is coming off a great effort against Air Force in a game they easily could have won and it seems they are making progress to be close to the team we are accustomed to. The last team that relies almost exclusively on the ground game that Tulsa ran up against was Wyoming, and they lost outright as a favorite in that one. If nothing else, this looks like a game that should come down to a FG, so 6 points is significant. I'm a junkie when it comes to grabbing points with service academies.
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. Missouri +11 @Florida: Missouri has to get up off the mat here and shake off a couple of tough losses in back to back weeks, but I think there's value in Drinkwitz's squad here. The fat ass kicker will probably blow a couple field goals this week after making kicks left and right last week against Georgia that ultimately meant nothing. In all seriousness, Missouri has been pretty good on defense, and held Georgia's offense out of the end zone for all but about 5 minutes of the game last week. Brady Cook is by no means good, but he competed well against Georgia and made some plays against a defense that is light years better than the Florida squad he's going to face this week. He might not need to be that good for the Mizzou offense to hav success because the Florida defense is 118th against the run, and although the Tigers didn't try very hard to run against Georgia, their backs ran it 15 times for 126 yards. I think both Schrader and Peat (assuming he doesn't cough it up over the pylon a few times) should have success. In addition to their poor run defense, Florida also sucks on 3rd down and doesn't get much pressure on opposing QBs, so the fragile Cook shouldn't be too uncomfortable. Mizzou has been close to wins the past two weeks, and I'm sure they feel they're due They've had success in the past in Gainesville, and Florida has done very little to give any reasonable person much confidence that they can cover this number. I'll take the 11 here.
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The fat ass kicker lol...got me on my 2H GA bet last week. I thought the fucker would never miss....BOL this week.
 
Br@ssknux said:
7. Texas Tech +9 @Oklahoma State: I wanted 10 or 10.5, but I'm good with 9 here, and if you want you can get 9.5 with minimal additional juice. I'm actually kind of surprised this line is this low given Okie State's ranking, record and result from last week, and that may tell us something about this one. Texas Tech is one of those teams that always looks worse in my numbers than they should because they don't wow you on a per play basis on offense. That's because Kittley's offense is all about lots of completed passes. Handicapping this one also reminded me that the Red Raiders definitely should have covered earlier this year in Raleigh when I was on them at +10. The outgained the Wolfpack by 85 yards in that one and held them under 300 yards but a late Donovan Smith pick 6 and a couple of dunce cap plays on potential backdoor drives kept me in the poorhouse that night. The Raiders have outgained everyone on their schedule...in addition to NC State they cranked out almost 500 yards against two defenses significantly better than the one they're gonna play this week in Texas and Kansas State. Oklahoma State is the latest team that we complain isn't worthy of being ranked in the top 10, but shit, someone has to be ranked there, and the Cowboys are as good a candidate as anyone. That last sentence is actually false if you look closer at their results. Now before I go into criticism of Gundy's team, please allow me to acknowledge how solid he is ATS. I've made a lot of money backing the Cowboys over the years, but this is mostly when they are catching points. Looking at their schedule, they've beaten Baylor at Baylor(good job there), Arizona State, Pine Bluff and Central Michigan. CMU, who has gone completely downhill since, piled up 546 yards and 44 points against them. ASU's Emory Jones, who we know to be a relatively feeble passer chalked up 9.29 yards per attempt and 18.6 yards per completion against them. The Cowboys are ranked 118th against the pass in yards per attempt and their about to face a team that will probably throw it 50+ times. ASU, Central Michigan and Baylor are hardly juggernauts in the passing game...there's no doubt the Red Raiders will be the best pass offense they've seen, and Okie State, you can argue will be easily the worst pass defense the Raiders have faced. On the other side of the ball, Okie State and Spencer Sanders will have some success but as I mentioned, Tech held down NC State's offense very well on the road, and played well enough against Kansas State and Texas to outgain both of those solid squads. OSU has TCU, Texas and K State lined up after this, so it isn't a great spot. Taking dogs in this league is likely going to be a profitable move, considering there's no gimmes, so I'll keep doing it here.
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I cashed some baylor qb passing props against okie lite last week, their defense is really bad against the pass. Debating smith props but they have his yardage total way up at almost 300 passing yards. I’d think he hits it tho.
Br@ssknux said:
3. Missouri +11 @Florida: Missouri has to get up off the mat here and shake off a couple of tough losses in back to back weeks, but I think there's value in Drinkwitz's squad here. The fat ass kicker will probably blow a couple field goals this week after making kicks left and right last week against Georgia that ultimately meant nothing. In all seriousness, Missouri has been pretty good on defense, and held Georgia's offense out of the end zone for all but about 5 minutes of the game last week. Brady Cook is by no means good, but he competed well against Georgia and made some plays against a defense that is light years better than the Florida squad he's going to face this week. He might not need to be that good for the Mizzou offense to hav success because the Florida defense is 118th against the run, and although the Tigers didn't try very hard to run against Georgia, their backs ran it 15 times for 126 yards. I think both Schrader and Peat (assuming he doesn't cough it up over the pylon a few times) should have success. In addition to their poor run defense, Florida also sucks on 3rd down and doesn't get much pressure on opposing QBs, so the fragile Cook shouldn't be too uncomfortable. Mizzou has been close to wins the past two weeks, and I'm sure they feel they're due They've had success in the past in Gainesville, and Florida has done very little to give any reasonable person much confidence that they can cover this number. I'll take the 11 here.
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I can’t stand mizzou offense, I dunno wtf they even trying to be and not sure they know either! The d has been surprisingly good tho and I don’t think gators offense is all that hard to defend (still not sure how bad vols secondary has to be to let AR throw for over 400 on them?!?!?). Obviously the big concern as you pointed out is tigers absolutely should have won at aub and prob shoulda beat Uga, that 2 tough losses to get over. Still gotta be them or nothing, pretty generous number when I don’t think they let gators get out the 20s.
 
9. Duke -3.5 @Georgia Tech: I'm a little afraid of this one because it looks almost too easy. Georgia Tech had a dead cat bounce last week off the firing of their coach Geoff Whatever his name is, but there's no way they hated the guy enough to propel them to an outright win as a 23 point dog. Pitt had just as much to do with that, and they pretty much searched far and wide for a way to lose until they eventually settled on one. Naturally, the major reason for the win was a 3/0 turnover story with the Panthers repeatedly shooting themselves in the foot. None of this changes that GT has been mostly terrible this year and is now matched up with a team that's been eminently better than them since jump street. Duke is solid both running and throwing the ball and they should have little trouble stopping an offense that doesn't do anything well. GT has no home field advantage to speak of, and I can't see Yellow Jackets pulling off two consecutive upsets. If these two teams play as they usually do, this should be a repeat of what happened when Duke teed it up with a struggling UVA team last week, and it should be a wipeout. Duke keeps the god vibes going, and GT reverts to a doormat.
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. @Kansas +7 v TCU: I'm thinking this might the only time I go against the Horned Frogs, and it pains me to do it, but now that this line is at 7(and you can get 7.5 if you want to lay -120), I'm a buyer. TCU has been devastating on offense, but the majority of that work has come on the ground, and the Kansas defense has been good against the run, ranking 38th in yards per attempt against. Max Duggan has been great, but there's been some rumors that he got a little banged up on his last TD in the 4th quarter of their blitzkrieg of Oklahoma last week so we might see Chandler Morris. Morris isn't bad, but he's no Duggan IMO, so that will bear watching. It seems like everyone is waiting for Kansas's bubble to burst, and for the most part it did last week, but guess what? The Jayhawks still won, this time on the back of it's bend but don't break defense. That's just the sign of a well coached team in my opinion. Yes, there's enough tape on Kansas and Jalon Daniels now, but does anyone think Lance Leipold is just going to continue with the status quo and not adjust? I'm a huge fan of TCU DC Joe Gillespie, but he's not going to whipsaw Leipold. It's true that TCU appears to be the better team, but 5-0 home dogs have a fantastic record over the years and TCU is in a hell of a sandwich spot with Oklahoma State on deck, Gameday or no Gameday. Kansas has proven themselves worthy, 7 points is too good to pass up here.
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Br@ssknux said:
2. @Kansas +7 v TCU: I'm thinking this might the only time I go against the Horned Frogs, and it pains me to do it, but now that this line is at 7(and you can get 7.5 if you want to lay -120), I'm a buyer. TCU has been devastating on offense, but the majority of that work has come on the ground, and the Kansas defense has been good against the run, ranking 38th in yards per attempt against. Max Duggan has been great, but there's been some rumors that he got a little banged up on his last TD in the 4th quarter of their blitzkrieg of Oklahoma last week so we might see Chandler Morris. Morris isn't bad, but he's no Duggan IMO, so that will bear watching. It seems like everyone is waiting for Kansas's bubble to burst, and for the most part it did last week, but guess what? The Jayhawks still won, this time on the back of it's bend but don't break defense. That's just the sign of a well coached team in my opinion. Yes, there's enough tape on Kansas and Jalon Daniels now, but does anyone think Lance Leipold is just going to continue with the status quo and not adjust? I'm a huge fan of TCU DC Joe Gillespie, but he's not going to whipsaw Leipold. It's true that TCU appears to be the better team, but 5-0 home dogs have a fantastic record over the years and TCU is in a hell of a sandwich spot with Oklahoma State on deck, Gameday or no Gameday. Kansas has proven themselves worthy, 7 points is too good to pass up here.
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The record is better if they had a losing record the prior year, like Kansas.
 
10. Ohio State -27 @Michigan State: Michigan State went 11-2 last year, one of the best years in their history. It resulted in a 10 year $95M contract for Mel Tucker that I'm sure nobody in East Lansing regrets. In all seriousness, they had a great year last year. When they played Ohio State, they were outgained by 431 yards. If you watched the game, you knew the MSU secondary was as helpless against Stroud and the Buckeye passing attack as any college football defense could possibly be. This MSU squad appears light years worse than last year's, and really what we're finding out is that the Spartans were incredibly lucky last year and its all evening out this year. The pass defense incompetence continues this year. In the three games against competent passing games, they are naturally giving up north of 10 yards per attempt. CJ Stroud and the OSU pass game remains the most productive in the country, and Stroud didn't get much of a chance to flex his muscles last week since all they had to do was hand the ball to Miyan Williams. When you look at his stats the past could of weeks, they don't jump out at you due to lack of opportunity as a result of the blowouts. To justofy the Heisman hype, he'll need an eye popping statistical game and here come the Spartans to provide the fodder. Under Jim Knowles the Buckeyes haven't given up 300 yards to anyone, and they won't start this week because the Spartan offense has not gotten on track yet. The running game hasn't worked, leaving all the weight on Payton Thorne's shoulders, and he's responded with a 8/6 ratio. My guess is the Buckeyes will have this spread covered after their fourth drive.
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. @Kansas +7 v TCU: I'm thinking this might the only time I go against the Horned Frogs, and it pains me to do it, but now that this line is at 7(and you can get 7.5 if you want to lay -120), I'm a buyer. TCU has been devastating on offense, but the majority of that work has come on the ground, and the Kansas defense has been good against the run, ranking 38th in yards per attempt against. Max Duggan has been great, but there's been some rumors that he got a little banged up on his last TD in the 4th quarter of their blitzkrieg of Oklahoma last week so we might see Chandler Morris. Morris isn't bad, but he's no Duggan IMO, so that will bear watching. It seems like everyone is waiting for Kansas's bubble to burst, and for the most part it did last week, but guess what? The Jayhawks still won, this time on the back of it's bend but don't break defense. That's just the sign of a well coached team in my opinion. Yes, there's enough tape on Kansas and Jalon Daniels now, but does anyone think Lance Leipold is just going to continue with the status quo and not adjust? I'm a huge fan of TCU DC Joe Gillespie, but he's not going to whipsaw Leipold. It's true that TCU appears to be the better team, but 5-0 home dogs have a fantastic record over the years and TCU is in a hell of a sandwich spot with Oklahoma State on deck, Gameday or no Gameday. Kansas has proven themselves worthy, 7 points is too good to pass up here.
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What funny about Morris/Duggan is at beginning the year I thought Morris should absolutely be the qb after seeing him vs baylor last year, then he came out and was fucking awful against Colorado to start year and next thing ya know I been screaming for Duggan. Duggan one these kids that has drastically improved every year he been here, gotta love the kids who put the work in! Both these teams been pretty good to me so this one tough. I think tcu pass d the advantage they have but I don’t want to lay it so it a pass for me/. Gl tho
 
AliShaheed said:
What's up with this Oregon St. line dropping way below a td? I know you back the Beavers pretty frequently.
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Probably because Chance Nolan is going to be out. I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing because he's been bad since late last year. They don't cover as a road favorite so my only play there would have been Stanford, but Stanford hasn't covered in a calendar year (11 straight spread losses). That was and will continue to be a no play for me. Beavs had some bad luck last week. That game wasn't as bad for them as it looked.
 
11. James Madison -11 @Arkansas State: I still think the oddsmakers are slow to react to how good this JMU team is, especially on defense, so I'm gonna keep playing them until they burn me. I can see why there might be a little support for Butch Jones and the Red Wolves or whatever they are now, since their defense has been pretty good this year. But their offense is not, and nobody has been able to get much of anything going against the Dukes thus far this season, It's a total mismatch on paper on that side of the ball, and JMU QB Centeio has been solid enough for me to believe the Dukes will continue their death march through the underbelly of the Sun Belt.
 
12. @Kentucky -5 v South Carolina: I realize that Will Levis is likely not going to play in this game, but we all can acknowledge that the rest of Kentucky's team is still going to suit up, Mark Stoops is still their coach, and the opponent is South Carolina? Kentucky has owned South Carolina, covering 8 of the last 9 and winning 7 of the last 8 outright. If Levis doesn't play, they are probably going to go with Redshirt Freshman Kaiya Sheron who passed up everyone else on the depth chart, coming in as a highly recruited local kid. South Carolina's defense is getting some pieces back, but two of their starters are out for the year, and they've been mediocre at best on that side of the ball. Spencer Rattler is still going to have to figure out how to navigate that Kentucky defense, and he has shown no ability to be even above average so far this year. It's also going to be cold in Lexington tonight(30's)...I'm guessing Rattler won't like that as fragile as he is. Ultimately I think this line has gone a bit overboard. Too much value to pass up here in a lopsided series.
 
13 @USC -12 v Washington State: Like everyone else, I'm still waiting for the insane turnover luck that USC has gotten to turn around, and I'm overly skeptical that USC will continue to have such good fortune, but anyone who's assuming it's going to be this week might be a little disappointed. I like Jake Dickert and they had a nice win against Cal last week, but the good feelings about WAZZOU this year stem mostly from their upset win at Wisconsin, which looks a lot less impressive now. If we look at that game closely we see that the Badgers outgained the Cougs 401-253, and even Graham Mertz moved the ball on them successfully through the air. So did Jack Plummer and Bo Nix by the way, with Nix torching the Cougs for 400+ yards and the Duck offense obliterating them for 600+ yards. I think USC is vulnerable against the run, but WSU can't run it. having failed to crack 100 yards rushing against any of the decent teams on their schedule. USC's offense will have no issues getting up and down the field and scoring at will here, and don't we at this point have to assume the turnover luck continues? If so this one won't be close, but even without it, I can't see how the Cougs can compete defensively in this one I'd love to see it, because I can't stand USC and have a win total under bet against them, but it's not happening for the Cougars today.
 
14. BYU +4.5 v Notre Dame: I might be the only guy on BYU in this one, and now that it's gotten to 4.5, I'm gonna pull the trigger. I saw a report that Nacua and Romney finally are going to be healthy, so the BYU offense might operate at full efficiency for the first time this year. I think people are liking Notre Dame more now because they are coming off that great performance at North Carolina, when everyone in the world assumed they were going to get hammered. The UNC defense delivered for the Irish there, but I think it gave a false sense that things are back on track for the Irish. I don't think so. Defensively they are fine, but they still can't run it, they still have zero playmakers on the perimieter and Drew Pyne is still their QB. Any clown can look good against Gene Chizik's stooges(we'll see if Cristbal can screw that up tonight, however), but we'll see if he succeeds against a competent defense. and I'm sure Sitake and co will be smart enough to make someone other than Michael Mayer beat them. If they can have success on offense, I think this number will be hard for the Irish to cover in Vegas, because BYU will have a strong showing in the crowd.
 
15. Florida State +3.5 @NC State: This line seems fishy to me with FSU coming off a bubble burst kind of game which killed their momentum. Now they are on the road against a team that needs a win and was recently ranked in the top 10 and they're only getting a FG? When I look at the matchup here, however, I can see why. The NC State offense has not been good. Worse defenses, i.e. Texas Tech pretty much shut Devin Leary and company down and the Wolfpack shows it in the overall numbers as well. They're ranked in yards per pass attempt, and pass defense is a strong suit for the Noles, even after they had their lunch taken from them by Wake. I'm also a big believer in Jordan Travis, as he's been efficient in the passing game and can certainly run it. This is more of a feel play but I can definitely see the Noles rallying on a road trip and coming up with a win against a team that has a history of disappointing their fans in spots like this.
 
16. @Alabama -24 v Texas A&M: With Max Johnson out, A&M has lost any competence at all with their offense. Haynes King can't move the ball against bad defenses, let alone Alabama's. They are screwed. On the offensive end, even if Bryce Young sits this out, which he should, the Milroe/Gibbs combination will run roughshod over an A&M defense that is reeling. I don't put a lot of stock in the whole Saban/Jimbo bruhaha, but one think that can't be disputed is that Saban is tired of losing recruits to A&M's money bags approach. I'm sure he will not stop at the chance to beat the living hell out of A&M to make sure recruits understand that although the money is nice, you're going to continue to get your ass handed to you if you choose A&M over Alabama. If A&M covers this, it will be because they played a great game, not because Alabama takes it easy on them. I don' know about you, but I don't see that happening.
 
Last one, I promise.


17. @Arizona +14(-115) v Oregon: I've been on the Wildcats quite a bit to mixed results, but I like their spot here. Oregon has always had issues traveling to the desert, regardless whether it's here or Tempe, and Arizona has the offense to put up some points against that Oregon defense that has had major problems stopping the pass this year. We're also talking about another chance for Bo Nix to shit the bed on the road, and we don't even need him to lose, just allow Arizona to stick around. The Wildcat offense with De Laura and those receivers is good enough to win the game in my opinion, but they're certainly good enough to provide plenty of backdoor possibilities into the early morning hours.
 
Brass, stellar write ups this week. Been off the radar all weekend so watchin CFF(great show imo).
 
Damn, was yesterday "push" Saturday or what? I'm seeing at least 3 games... depending on what line peep caught of course.
 
Br@ssknux said:
11. James Madison -11 @Arkansas State: I still think the oddsmakers are slow to react to how good this JMU team is, especially on defense, so I'm gonna keep playing them until they burn me. I can see why there might be a little support for Butch Jones and the Red Wolves or whatever they are now, since their defense has been pretty good this year. But their offense is not, and nobody has been able to get much of anything going against the Dukes thus far this season, It's a total mismatch on paper on that side of the ball, and JMU QB Centeio has been solid enough for me to believe the Dukes will continue their death march through the underbelly of the Sun Belt.
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Wish I would've read this before wagering on Arky St...
 
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