Week 6 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
8-6-1 record last week (not terrible) brings the year long record 40-27-2, which is a hair under my perpetual goal of 60% (.597).

I don't know about everyone else, but as a dog bettor, I am having a ton of issues finding trustable dogs. Playing favorites is not my modus operandi, but there's a lot of them on my list of possibilities. There's some dogs as well, but nowhere near the number I usually have. Seems like I might be finding myself on some square sides this week. We'll see how it shakes out.

Michigan State -5 WIN
Baylor -2.5 WIN
Arkansas +5 WIN
Syracuse +6 WIN
Colorado State -2.5 WIN
Georgia -14 WIN
Florida Atlantic +4 LOSS
Oregon State -3.5 LOSS (Beavs blew that one)
Texas Tech +2 LOSS (More like Texas Toast)
UTSA +3.5 WIN
Kentucky -2.5 WIN
Michigan -2.5 WIN
Utah +3 WIN

10-3

1. Michigan State -5 @ Rutgers: You'd have a hard time finding a bigger fan of Rutgers coach Greg Schiano than me. What he's done in his second go-around in Piscataway might be more impressive than his first, since he took a completely non-competitive Rutgers squad, who spent the previous decade getting constantly pounded by the Big Ten and made them competitive IMMEDIATELY with the same players that couldn't walk and chew gum at the same time a season earlier. He truly is a master at making just about any collection of players a formidable opponent. (Remember the uproar caused by his rumored hiring among the Tennessee fanbase a few years ago? Luckily, their action saved them from the indignity of a Sciano tenure and blessed them with Jeremy Pruett. Logical people, those Vol faithful). Having sald all of that about Schiano, for whatever reason, the Scarlet Knights are covering machines on the road and total ATS misfits at home in conference since Schiano arrived and in the years prior to that. Scihano is 1-5 ATS at home and undefeated ATS on the road, so situationally, it's not the position r\Rutgers usually thrives in. Also, when you look at this game from a fundamental handicapping perspective, MIchigan State has major edges in every category that I consider when it comes to direct scrimmaging. They're 118th in yards per play, 95th running the ball and 120th in yards per pass attempt. MSU has a major edge defensively over the Knights, and when they're on offense, their 23rd ranked pass offense shouldn't have trouble moving it on Rutgers 99th ranked pass defense. This is the type of game that Rutgers has historically failed in, and those failures are both historical and recent.

2. @Baylor -2.5(-120) v West Virginia: This one dipped down to -105 in some spots, so you can now buy it under a FG in a couple of my outs. 3 is fine also. I'm still kicking myself for not writing up Texas Tech +7 against WV last week, but I chickened out because of West Virginia's prowess ATS as a home favorite (12-2 in their last 14 in that role). I'm a big fan of what Baylor has done thus far, and I think they are set up well to bounce back after they were put in their place last week by Oklahoma State. West Virginia burned me when I faded them at Oklahoma (correction, I burned myself by assuming Oklahoma would come alive offensively despite no evidence), but I don't think we'll see consecutive solid road efforts from a team who has covered only1 of their last 5 conference road games while also employing Jarret Doege at quarterback. Baylor has strong numbers on offense and defense and Gerry Bohannon should be able to hit big plays on the 86th ranked pass defense.
 
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Lmao yea that was a funny one last week. Semantics anyway. Write up is the same regardless. I’m torn on that wvu game :/
 
3. Arkansas +5 @Ole Miss: Both teams got hammered last week, especially Arkansas, whose game with Georgia was over about 5 minutes after it started. Overall, these are two really good teams, but when you look a little closer, I think I might be getting points with the more accomplished and more well rounded team. When it comes to bouncing back from adversity, I'm pretty sold on Sam Pittman. It seems like he's built a culture there where Arkansas is able to bring their A game on a consistent basis. Even after the Georgia blitzkrieg, Arkansas still ranks 2nd in passing defense, 6th in overall yards per play and 6th in 3rd down conversions against. Offensively, they rank 7th in yards per play, 10th in rushing and 6th in yards per pass attempt, even after facing Georgia. They'll face major class relief in the Ole Miss defense, who although they are improved, are still a pretty mediocre defense on paper. Arkansas also completely fooled Matt Corral last year and goaded into a couple of horrible interceptions. In my estimation, I'm getting points with a more well rounded team,
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. Arkansas +5 @Ole Miss: Both teams got hammered last week, especially Arkansas, whose game with Georgia was over about 5 minutes after it started. Overall, these are two really good teams, but when you look a little closer, I think I might be getting points with the more accomplished and more well rounded team. When it comes to bouncing back from adversity, I'm pretty sold on Sam Pittman. It seems like he's built a culture there where Arkansas is able to bring their A game on a consistent basis. Even after the Georgia blitzkrieg, Arkansas still ranks 2nd in passing defense, 6th in overall yards per play and 6th in 3rd down conversions against. Offensively, they rank 7th in yards per play, 10th in rushing and 6th in yards per pass attempt, even after facing Georgia. They'll face major class relief in the Ole Miss defense, who although they are improved, are still a pretty mediocre defense on paper. Arkansas also completely fooled Matt Corral last year and goaded into a couple of horrible interceptions. In my estimation, I'm getting points with a more well rounded team,
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I like the coach approach. Given expectations coming into the year, Pittman should be able to bounce back.

As far as using UGA passing to support their pass D stats, that game should be a non factor. UGA attempted Navy like numbers. They did not need to pass.


**edit** please don't take this as rude as it sounds. Like many others, I read this thread weekly. Have done so for years. Always a must. Just seemed odd to use that game as support.
**
 
booksbestfriend said:
I like the coach approach. Given expectations coming into the year, Pittman should be able to bounce back.

As far as using UGA passing to support their pass D stats, that game should be a non factor. UGA attempted Navy like numbers. They did not need to pass.


**edit** please don't take this as rude as it sounds. Like many others, I read this thread weekly. Have done so for years. Always a must. Just seemed odd to use that game as support.
**
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No offense taken BBF. My point, which I probably didn't make very well, is that despite having a blowout loss on their resume, Arkansas's defense still ranks among the best in the country. As for the pass defense, yeah, Bennett only attempted 11 passes, but at least they held them to 6.45 per attempt, right? :) And I probably should have made more mention of the Texas/Texas A&M defensive performances to make the point, I agree there.
 
4. @Syracuse +6 v Wake: Although I'm definitely not one to have any criticism for Wake and their undefeated record, a close look at their results this year shows a bit of a disconnect between the box scores of their games and the scores on the scoreboard. I should also point out that I was unimpressed with their straight up refusal to take care of business from an ATS standpoint at home against Louisville last weekend. They are 5-0, but they were outgained in their last 2 wins against Louisville and Virginia, and even in their game against Old Dominion, they only outgained the Monarchs 352-272 in ODU's first game in almost 2 years due to their COVID shutdown last year. Syracuse remains a good defensive team this year, ranked 28th in overall yards per play and 29th against the pass, which is Wake's strength. I also think the Orange will be able to run it on the Deacons, and I have a feeling Wake is in for a lackluster performance in the Carrier Dome. I like the QB switch to Garret Schrader, who made some nice plays last week in a game Syracuse was screwed out of a win in my opinion. I think Wake's good fortune is due for a hiatus this week. Syracuse has already beaten a good Liberty team on this field and I think they can at least take Wake to the final minutes.
 
Appreciate your thoughts and taking the time to post as always Brass.

:cheers3:
 
5. @Colorado State -2.5 (-122) v San Jose State: I actually grabbed this early this week at -1, but you can still get it at under a FG if you buy it down, and I would still play it there. I mentioned this in a thread somewhere, but I've been wondering for a couple weeks what in the world happened to San Jose State this year. It's not like they're the only team that is having drastically different results with a very similar roster than last year, but they might be the most extreme example. Offensively, they've been terrible: 107th in yards per play and 114th in yards per pass attempt against an FBS schedule of teams who rank 122nd, 104th, 85th and 70th in total defense. In their two road games, they gained 291 yards at Hawaii and shockingly only 119(!!!) against a Western Michigan team who coming into that game ranked 123rd in total defense. Now they travel to Colorado State to face easily the best defense they've faced, and a team who has found themselves a bit after a terrible start, although their loss to South Dakota State doesn't look as bad as SDSU's Sagarin rankings would place them right in the middle of FBS by comparison. They went into Toledo and pounded a good Rockets squad and followed that up with a competitive effort at Iowa that allowed me to cash one of my bigger tickets of the year. CSU is also not an offensive juggernaut, but they have some decent skill guys and a competent QB. If the Spartans get off the mat and move the ball on CSU, I'll tip my cap, but there hasn't been any evidence thus far that they can.
 
6. Georgia -14 (-125) @Auburn: I just bought this to 14. (I've been doing a lot of that lately). We got the good Bo Nix last week, and he's actually bucked the trend of sucking on the road by turning in a couple of solid road performances this year, first at Penn State and then last week at LSU. That's great, but Bad Bo Nix also made an appearance a couple weeks ago at home against Georgia State that required his benching and backup TJ Finley to save him (along with a very questionable replay call). As we all know, the Georgia defense are a far cry from the tattered remains of whatever LSU's defenses used to be. Auburn's strength is running the ball, but teams that rely on the run and struggle to throw it are cruising for a bruising against Georgia, although I could say that about any kind of offense if they are teeing it up with that defense. Georgia is also in their element as a road favorite, having covered 7 of their last 9 in that role, I just don't see much of a chance for Auburn to get points in this one. a 34-3 type game seems like a pretty distinct possibility to me here.
 
7. FAU +4 @UAB: Bill Clark is awesome, and I seldom even consider going against his Blazers, especially when they are favored at home in conference, but they are in their element in games against the Rices, the North Texases or the Middle Tennessees...teams that they can match athletically and smother and out scheme. When they face teams that are significantly more athletic than they are, like Liberty last week, they really struggle. If you look at their profile, and check their results, you'll see that they are seldom if ever competitive against power 5 teams and athletic group of 5 teams (like the aforementioned Liberty and the FAU squads of the past few years). Now Willie Taggert brings in a FAU squad that he's had a couple seasons to round into shape, and they've looked very good this year. In addition to that, UAB's previous calling card, defense, hasn't really been that great even against the weaker teams on the slate, as they rank 98th in yards per play against and 109th against the pass. Liberty and Georgia(whose forte is running, not throwing) threw for a combined 16.44 yards per ATTEMPT against the Blazers, and FAU's pass game with N'Kosi Perry has the profile of the kinds of offenses that UAB hasn't been able to handle in the past. Also, although UAB has been great at home in recent years, they've only played once in their new home stadium, and they got their asses kicked in that one. I don't like to make a habit of fading Bill Clark, but this is one of the times it makes sense.
 
8. Oregon State -3.5 @ Washington State: Another road favorite, another public play, what can I say? Maybe it'll be a public wins kind of week, but I'm not abandoning the Beavs in this spot. Washington State is coming off a great result last week, but that was against Cal when Cal was a home favorite, and there are very few teams in the country that struggle in a role worse than Cal does in that role, and shame on me for missing it last week. The Cougs didn't really even play all that well, but the Bears impotence in that role made it a moot point. Now the Cougs go back home, and frankly, Nick Rolovich is bad in every role imaginable as his career ATS record is 23-38, and he's yet to cover a home game in Pullman(0-4). The Beavers have the edge in every measurable category I can find, most notably the running game on both sides of the ball. Believe it or not, the Beavers played their worst game since they moved Chance Nolan into the starting QB role last week against Washington and they covered anyway. I suspect they'll get back into the groove this week, as they are more in their comfort zone on the road. Really like the Beavs in this one.
 
I was considering Oregon St./Wash St. under but after reading your thoughts I think the side is probably a better play. I think their running game is probably good enough to get the win and cover here, despite my hesitancy on Nolan and the passing game. BOL Brass.
 
9. @Texas Tech +2 v TCU: The Red Raiders are 4-1 with wins at Houston and at West Virginia, but you wouldn't know it by looking at this line, where they're a 2 point home dog to TCU. If we were talking about the TCU from several years ago I could understand, but this TCU squad apparently can't stop anyone, ranking 120th in yards per play, 120th in yards per rush and 113th in yards per pass attempt against. They also can't stop anyone on 3rd down and don't pressure the QB. As I've mentioned before, I like Matt Wells, and I totally chickened out on playing the Red Raiders last week in Morgantown because I was scared away by WV's home ATS record in recent years. Naturally, the Raiders won outright. Offensively, they've been great, ranking 9th in yards per play and 8th in yards per pass despite the fact that Wells much prefers running the ball. Backup QB Henry Colombi is supposed to be a game manager, but he's averaged more than 10 yards per attempt in relief of injured starter Tyler Shough. It's unlikely that Colombi will be pressured much by this Frog defense, so he should have good success on the home turf. Tech's defense doesn't look great on paper, but the majority of damage against them was done by Texas in a disaster performance by the Red Raiders. They are much more capable than that, as their performance against Houston (Under 300 total yards) would suggest. The Red Raiders will get some extra juice from being dogged at home in this one despite their 4-1 record which includes two wins away from home.
 
10. UTSA +3.5(-115) @Western Kentucky: I'm not sure why UTSA is dogged here, but I'll take Jeff Traylor as a road dog (9-3 in that role), especially when he's getting more than a FG against a squad ranked in the bottom 25% of FBS defenses in every measurable category. UTSA has a very balanced offense, able to run on just about anyone and they can throw it with veteran QB Frank Harris. WKU has a great new passing attack that they imported in from Houston Baptist, but they can't run at all and UTSA has the 4th best run defense, so UTSA won't even have to worry about anything other than containing Bailey Zappe and his receivers. Meanwhile, WKU's 128th ranked 3rd down defense will find it impossible to get off the field against the efficient RoadRunner offense. I'm staying with the RoadRunners until they burn me, and I think it's gonna take a better team than WKU to do it(And I get more than a FG to boot)
 
11. @Kentucky -2.5 v LSU: This is normally the kind of game that would be setting off alarm bells for me as it relates to Kentucky. A huge home upset over a team that previously tortured you, and now you're right back at home against another traditional bully, and one that thrives in the road underdog role to boot. It's not a great spot for Kentucky to be sure, but I would offer that 2 additional points need to be made. First, Kentucky did not play a great game last week against Florida and won anyway, and 2 LSU is miles from being the bully they used to be. I should also tell you that Kentucky on paper looks like one of the better teams in the country. Offensively they are coming off only a 224 yard offensive performance last week, but on a per play basis, their offense is good across the board and also converts 3rd downs. Defensively, they are borderline elite, ranking 5th on overall yards per play against with good results in all the areas you like to see, i.e. rush defense, 3rd down conversions, etc. Ed Orgeron looks like he might be dead man walking, which I hope isn't the case because he's a great guy to have around for comedic value. (see if you can get a highlight clip from his coach's show from this past week if possible). LSU has almost no chance to run it on Kentucky,(127th rush offense vs 9th ranked rush defense) so it will be up to Brad Johnson's kid Maxx, who if you watch throw the ball, appears confused about his handedness. He throws lefty, but it looks like he should be throwing righty. Defensively, LSU just got mixed on by Bo Nix, and they haven't really stopped anyone for about 18 months. Kentucky has 3 pretty solid skill guys in Chris Rodriguez, WanDale Robinson and QB Will Levis. I think they'll be able to move the ball much better than they did against Florida, and I expect a more sound offensive effort against a significantly worse team than they saw last week.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
That's it for tonight, but I think I'll be adding a couple more night games tomorrow.
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great reads as always bro, thanks for taking the time to share!! only one i see we banging heads on is wvu/baylor, seems im against bunch of guys i respect on that one! sometimes ya gotta trust your instincts and lone wolf it!! lol..you certainly in good company tho!! for me it just a matter of believing wvu is a good team when they can get the run game going and i think they have the edge rushing and run d. i think sooners beat wvu twice as they were hung over last week imo while texas tech was out for blood after getting totally embarrassed the week before, so right or wrong i wrote that off and trust coach brown to get the ship righted this week!! i been wrong before tho, and i hate being against you and the others i know on baylor!!!!

im with you, this a very crappy looking card for dog bettors such as ourselves!! have you looked at ecu yet? i think catching 10 vs a reeling ucf squad my favorite dog of the bunch this week.. gl as always!!
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. Arkansas +5 @Ole Miss: Both teams got hammered last week, especially Arkansas, whose game with Georgia was over about 5 minutes after it started. Overall, these are two really good teams, but when you look a little closer, I think I might be getting points with the more accomplished and more well rounded team. When it comes to bouncing back from adversity, I'm pretty sold on Sam Pittman. It seems like he's built a culture there where Arkansas is able to bring their A game on a consistent basis. Even after the Georgia blitzkrieg, Arkansas still ranks 2nd in passing defense, 6th in overall yards per play and 6th in 3rd down conversions against. Offensively, they rank 7th in yards per play, 10th in rushing and 6th in yards per pass attempt, even after facing Georgia. They'll face major class relief in the Ole Miss defense, who although they are improved, are still a pretty mediocre defense on paper. Arkansas also completely fooled Matt Corral last year and goaded into a couple of horrible interceptions. In my estimation, I'm getting points with a more well rounded team,
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sold on pitman and his staff, odem a very good dc, just look at what mizzou d has become in the sec with him gone!! i know you dont play totals but im hanging my hat on the under in this one. not for the faint of heart but i think it would benefit your play if this was to stay out of the 30's!! familiarity the key here for me, both defenses see very similar rushing schemes in practice every day, both d's very good at limiting big plays and forcing offenses to be patient and drive the entire field.... can kiffen and crew remain patient and not get into trouble trying to force it will go a long way in deciding this one,, im not sure they can help themselves, i thought they figured it out in 2nd half last year but get the feeling instead of focusing on being patient they been in the lab all week trying to devise different ways to attack down the field which would be a mistake imo.. heard odem say as much as they would have to change things up this year cause rebs no doubt spent a ton of time working on things to beat the looks they saw!! i trust odem will come up with some new wrinkles.. my biggest concern for hogs is jeffersons health, he didnt look himself last week, surely some of that simply dawgs redic defense but didnt look like he had the same burst..hopefully he better this week and hogs can play keep away!!
 
2daBank said:
great reads as always bro, thanks for taking the time to share!! only one i see we banging heads on is wvu/baylor, seems im against bunch of guys i respect on that one! sometimes ya gotta trust your instincts and lone wolf it!! lol..you certainly in good company tho!! for me it just a matter of believing wvu is a good team when they can get the run game going and i think they have the edge rushing and run d. i think sooners beat wvu twice as they were hung over last week imo while texas tech was out for blood after getting totally embarrassed the week before, so right or wrong i wrote that off and trust coach brown to get the ship righted this week!! i been wrong before tho, and i hate being against you and the others i know on baylor!!!!

im with you, this a very crappy looking card for dog bettors such as ourselves!! have you looked at ecu yet? i think catching 10 vs a reeling ucf squad my favorite dog of the bunch this week.. gl as always!!
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Thought about ECU and they usually outperform their numbers but their defensive numbers are so bad that I didn’t want to rely totally on “intangibles”. I didn’t think the UCF backup looked out of place last week and I suspect they will bounce back. 10 is a lot though. Probably would lean ECU but not enough to recommend it.
 
2daBank said:
sold on pitman and his staff, odem a very good dc, just look at what mizzou d has become in the sec with him gone!! i know you dont play totals but im hanging my hat on the under in this one. not for the faint of heart but i think it would benefit your play if this was to stay out of the 30's!! familiarity the key here for me, both defenses see very similar rushing schemes in practice every day, both d's very good at limiting big plays and forcing offenses to be patient and drive the entire field.... can kiffen and crew remain patient and not get into trouble trying to force it will go a long way in deciding this one,, im not sure they can help themselves, i thought they figured it out in 2nd half last year but get the feeling instead of focusing on being patient they been in the lab all week trying to devise different ways to attack down the field which would be a mistake imo.. heard odem say as much as they would have to change things up this year cause rebs no doubt spent a ton of time working on things to beat the looks they saw!! i trust odem will come up with some new wrinkles.. my biggest concern for hogs is jeffersons health, he didnt look himself last week, surely some of that simply dawgs redic defense but didnt look like he had the same burst..hopefully he better this week and hogs can play keep away!!
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Yep. :cheers3::cheers3:
 
12. Michigan -2.5 @Nebraska or Michigan ML (-142): I hemmed and hawed about this all week, but now that it's under a FG (I'd almost rather play the -42 ML), I'm gonna pull the trigger. This is 100% a pros vs joes game and usually, I want no part of the Joes' side, but every once in awhile, the "sharps" overthink things and don't look at what's right in front of their faces. Hue Jackson's last year in Cleveland is a great example of this. The Browns had some players and they ran into a lot of bad luck, but after a few weeks, it became a good idea to be against Cleveland because "Cleveland things" would happen to the Browns every week without fail. They'd outgain the opponent or have a couple tough breaks, but they would fail to cover. The following week Cleveland was the "smart side" and they'd lose again. This is kind of how I feel about this game. I realize that under Harbaugh, Michigan has given us a lot of reasons to doubt them, especially in big game scenarios like this. However, all they've done this year is tell us that things have changed. Previous Michigan teams would struggle with Western Michigan. Previous Michigan teams would outplay Washington but then find a way to either lose or let Washington hang around and cover(which I wagered on). Previous Michigan teams would have struggled with an NIU team that beat Georgia Tech and almost beat Wyoming, and without a doubt, previous Michigan teams would have lost in Madison. Not only have none of these things happened, they didn't even come close to happening. They've gotten good QB play, they've played sound defense, they've run the ball, they've stopped the run...all recipes for victory that they have struggled with in recent years. Now, I understand the draw to Nebraska. They've played extremely competitive football since their last time in the national spotlight (week zero) when they embarrassed themselves. Since then they've been in the spotlight, but all they've had to do is be competitive to gain some credibility, which they've done. Now they are back in the spotlight, but just hanging with Oklahoma, or outplaying Michigan State only to lose isn't good enough. They have to BEAT Michigan. At home. When all the chips are on the table. Scott Frost has not yet shown that they can turn that corner, while in my opinion, Michigan has proven so far that all indications are that they have. If Frost pulls this off, I'll be the first to acknowledge it, but I do not see that happening. Michigan isn't a lot better than Nebraska, but they're slightly better in just about every area, and Nebraska doesn't have an edge in any one category that I find important. Throw in Nebraska's penchant for horrific special teams play and Adrian Martinez's tendency to do just enough to lose, and think the odds are high that Michigan prevails in this one.
 
13. Utah +3 @USC: I have to admit that although over the years, Kyle Whittingham has been a great coach to tail, i've been burned on some pretty high profile occasions by him in recent years,(think 2019 PAc12 title game followed by their bowl game v Texas) almost to the point that I downplay the "edge" Utah has against meathead opponents when Whittingham is calling the shots. This week though, I'm going to hitch my wagon to him because he is in his element, and that is unquestionably on the road as a dog. There haven't been a lot of opportunities to play them in this spot recently, but we have one now. Since 2014, Utah is 12-1 as a road dog, and what better team to put them in that role against than USC, who has been a conference home favorite twice this year and missed the cover by 29 and 28 points in those two games, and neither game should have been even that close. Utah's defense is leaps and bounds better than USC's and even though Utah can't throw it well, USC can't stop the run so it probably won't matter. Despite my hesitations about Whittingham's recent performance, there's no doubt that he can coach circles around whatever's ;eft of this current USC staff on his worst day. I'm certainly comfortable taking points in this spot with the Utes.
 
Everything is set up for Michigan State to win this game by 21+ points. Thorne has all day to throw, every time the hand it to Walker on a standard, non slow developing shotgun handoff he gets 10 yards, yet they shoot themselves in the foot. Then an unconscionable roughing the passer penalty keeps a drive alive for Rutgers. If MSU fails to run away with this game, it’s totally on them.
 
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