Week 6 Writeups and hopefully feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Had a good week last week, 11-5, thanks mostly to dogs, but I'm sure I'll be wasting my time with some favorites this week, despite past experience screaming at me to avoid them.

Year long record is 40-28-2. Thanks as always to everyone who chimes in.

CMU +7 WIN
MTSU +8.5 LOSS (LOL!!)
Iowa -11 LOSS
GT +7 LOSS (LOL!!)
Iowa St. +10.5 LOSS (LOL!!)
Navy +14 LOSS
Appy St. WIN
Michigan -7 WIN
WAZZOU +17 WIN
Arkansas +16 WIN
Kansas St. +10 WIN
Oklahoma St. +7 WIN
Cal +7 WIN



1. Central Michigan +7 @ Western Michigan: At the beginning of the year, WMU looked like a pretty solid squad, based on how they finished last year, but they have left a lot to be desired so far this year under borderline insane coach PJ Fleck. Obviously, it's hard to look good when your games have been against Michigan State, Ohio State and a tough Georgia Southern squad at home, but a lot of teams have played those teams tough this year. CMU has put together a nice season so far, and their offense has been impressive against tough competition, ranking 49th in passer rating. They are coming in to this game off a borderline dominant performance against conference kingpin NIU and will be motivated to take on their in state rival. I think WMU has time to improve and will probably be better as the season progresses, but at this point, there's no way that Central Michigan is a full TD worse than Western...a definite take here for sure. Lots of backdoor potential if needed as well.
 
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2. Middle Tennessee St +8.5 @ Western Kentucky: From hat I understand, this is turning into quite a nice little rivalry game...the call is "100 miles of hate" as the two campuses are only 100 miles apart. They played an overtime thriller last year, and I think this one could go down to the wire as well. WKU has obviously been very impressive, especially last week as they pasted a Rice team that I thought had a decent chance to hang with them. This week though, they play a Blue Raider squad that matches up better against them. First of all, already this year MTSU has played Vanderbilt, Illinois and Alabama, all 3 of which have established themselves as very solid power 5 defenses. In the other two games they've played, they've scored 70 points, and despite the competition, they still rank 33rd in games against FBS foes in passer rating. This will definitely seem like class relief for them because WKU is ranked 85th in yards per play allowed and 73rd in passer rating allowed. MTSU also has done a good job of stopping the pass, ranking 10th in the country in passer rating against, and that's WKu's forte as they can't run the ball to save their lives (113th in ypc). Although i'm sure Doughty and company will put some points up, I think they'll have a hard time containing the Blue Raiders, and this should end up being a nailbiter.
 
3. @Iowa -11 v Illinois: You'll have to bear with me because I've seen a lot of these games with the Illini. Illinois has had a very nice start to the season, as long as they've been at home. Defensively, they are ranked in or neart the top 20 in several categories, notably 3rd down conversions against (5th), Total defense (26th), tackles for loss(8th), etc. They've been good on defense. However, on the road, they've played only once, and in that game it was same old same old, as North Carolina blitzed them for 6.9 yards per carry and a previously erratic Marquise Williams blowtorched them for 9 yards per attempt in a 48-14 laugher. Iowa, although not known for their offense, is ranked 40th in overall yards per play and 30th in passer rating, so they aren't bad on that side of the ball. The major problem for Illinois will be offensively. They got lucky last week when Wes Lunt completed a long one in the waning seconds after Mike Riley completed botched the clock to give the Illini one more shot. Lunt still refuses to go downfield, as he remains at he bottom fo the nation in yards per attempt and yards per completion. Now he'll be without his best offensive player as Josh Ferguson is out with a shoulder injury. The Illini managed only 7 points through 55 minutes at North Carolina, and Iowa is miles better on defense than the Tar Heels. If the Illini manage more than 10 points in this one, I'll be surprised. This looks like a 31-7 type game to me.
 
4. Georgia Tech +7 @ Clemson: I figured I had sworn off Georgia Tech, but then they catch a TD in a spot like this and I'm back on the Paul Johnson train. You couldn't conjure up a better spot for GT, as they are on a 3 game losing streak in which they've played poorly, but still have a lot to play for and feature a coach that knows what he's doing and a roster that many people felt was worthy of an ACC championship at the beginning of the season. Clemson is coming off a monumental win at home against Notre Dame, but it was another example of their lack of explosiveness on offense as they were outgained by 140 yards by the Irish, failing to crack 300 yards in the process. I think the Yellowjackets get back in their comfort zone as a dog, and they are way overdue for an efficient, inspired performance.
 
5. Iowa State +10.5 @ Texas Tech: This line opened at 12.5, has seen the public pound the shit out of it since the open, and is now at 10.5 and falling. There's a chance that we could see if climb back up before kickoff, but that line movement has me wondering. Even without that, I think Iowa State is a little bit better than perceived, as their losses were to Iowa and in a road tilt at Toledo in which they lost in OT despite outgaining the Rockets by 172 yards. They also handled an elite FCS program in Northern Iowa earlier this year. Although we all know about Texas Tech's offensive prowess, Iowa State has been much better on defense than the Red Raiders, and the matchups indicate that Iowa State will have major advantages in both the run game and pass game when they have the ball. Tech ranks 115th against the run and 117th in passer rating against, so I see Iowa State's offense having quite a bit of success, especially when they are likely to catch the Red Raiders a bit down in the dumps coming off the Baylor throttling.
 
6. Navy +14 @ Notre Dame: After watching what Navy did to Air Force last week, I think we can all agree that the Midshipmen are no joke. They are 4-0, and if they can somehow get by the Irish in this spot, it's hard to see a loss on their schedule until they play at Memphis in November. Obviously, you worry about Notre Dame imposing their will in this game, and I am a huge fan of Will Fuller and CJ Prosise especially, but Navy is holding their own defensively, ranked 35th in overall yards per play and 35th against the run. Navy is almost an auto play when they are double digit road dogs (7-1 in their last 8 in that role) and they've covered 4 of the last 5 in South Bend. This appears to be one of the best Navy teams in a long time, as Kennan Reynolds is rolling, and they catch the Irish at the right time, coming off the Clemson gut wrencher with USC on deck.
 
No problem B.A.R.

7. Appalachian State -15.5 v Georgia State: I'm going to try not to get too complicated with this one. I still remember one of my worst calls from last year...thinking that Georgia State had a shot to cover a big number at Appy State late in the year because Georgia State had a pretty decent pass offense or some silly shit like that. Final Score: 44-0 Appy State. Final Yardage: Appy State 567 Georgia State 62. Since Georgia State became a FBS squad in 2013, they are 1-12 at "home" in the Georgia Dome...quite a HFA, I'm sure. The only win? a 38-37 triumph in their opener last year with Abeline Christian. In their last 5 home tilts, here's what's happened: L 23-31 v Liberty, L 20-23 v Charlotte, L 31-54 v Texas State, L 31-69 v Ga Southern, and L 10-52 v Arkansas State. On the flip side, Appy State has been great on the road lately, winning and covering 5 in a row save earlier this year at Clemson. The last time out on the road, they bludgeoned what is probably a better team (Old Dominion) 49-0. Looks like a mismatch.
 
8. @Michigan -7 v Northwestern: I bought this one down to 7 at -112. I know I said this last week, but if Northwestern covers this one, I swear I won't fade them again unless they are laying some kind of ridiculous number. In this case, I really like Michigan. The public is all over Northwestern, and I completely understand why, because we all love defensive underdogs. However, I think this might be a little bit of a short price for a Wolverine team that almost certainly will dominate the Cats when Northwestern is on offense. Michigan is ranked #1 in the country in yards per play on defense. Northwestern is also very good in that area, ranked 7th, but Michigan gives up almost a full yard per play less than the Cats. Also, Michigan's MO in this game will be to pound the ball in the running game, and that is the one area where NW has a bit of an achilles heel, ranking only 53rd against the run while Michigan has been able to run effectively all year (32nd). Michigan is 1st overall, 1st against the pass(while NW is ranked 101st in passing offense), 4th against the run, 1st in 3rd down conversions against...you get the picture. I'd be worried about the look ahead scenario to Michigan State next week, but Northwestern comes in undefeated with a lot of media attention and I doubt Harbaugh would have a lapse of missing intensity. Brady Hoke ain't coaching here anymore.

 
my man, like seeing you on the iowas with me. only one I am not on that WKU game except for the over. BOL this week great thoughts on all of them.
 
9. Washington State +17 @ Oregon: With as poorly as Oregon played last time out at home (Utah), it was probably a good thing that the Ducks went on the road last week. Now they return, and Vernon Adams is still not ready to play. They'll be going with Jeff Lockie or walk-on Taylor Allie, both of which are not ideal for the Ducks. Oregon this year has national rankings on offense that are very un Duck-like: 35th in yards per play, 47th in passer rating, 21st in yards per rush. Those numbers look ok for your average team, but not Oregon. Washington State actually stops the run pretty well(37th), so Oregon might not be 100% equipped to attack them in their vulnerable area of pass defense. On the flip side, Wazzou will have a major advantage in the passing game, as Oregon has been awful all year against the pass. 17 is going to be a lot to cover if the Cougs can have success there, and the numbers say they will. Also, throw in the fact that Wazzou has covered 5 in a row with the Ducks by an average of 17 points, and I'm sure the Cougs aren't all that intimidated. Ducks have Washington on deck as well...a longtime rival.
 
10. Arkansas +16 @ Alabama: Arkansas is catching Bama at a great time. 2 weeks ago, the media had buried the Tide, and now they are right back in their rightful place on Nick Saban's jock. Arkansas in my opinion remains a solid squad who can move the ball both in the running game and the passing game. Defensively they made some strides last week, and they still have designs on a solid season. There is very little chance that bama conjures up a performance like the one they had last week, which was borderline perfect (and pretty predictible if you ask me.). Great value here on Arkansas.
 
11. @Kansas State +10 v TCU: Was there any doubt? Bill Snyder is now 38-14 ATS in conference since he came back, and I certainly won't fade him this week. TCU comes in off an impossible dominant performance in their 50-7 destruction of Texas that wasn't even that close. However, K state is much better defensively than Texas, and TCU has already shown that when they play capable competition on the road(this year and last year), they are ripe for barn-burner. Defensively, TCU is ranked 70th in the country in yards per play against, even after the Texas debacle, and 68th against the pass with a 5/0 TD/INT ratio..not much resistance there. Offensively, K State, despite using 3rd and 4th string QBs( and their starting WR last week) is still 29th in passer rating. I guess the Wildcat staff knows what they're doing. I wouldn't be surprised at all if K State knocked off the Frogs, so I'll obviously gobble up the points with the great Bill Snyder.
 
12. Oklahoma State +7 (-120) @ West Virginia: I was impressed with West Virginia last week in defeat against Oklahoma...I thought they got the raw end of a couple calls that stalled drives for them and Oklahoma was fortunate. Their defense is for real, but I think this is a bit much for them to cover this week, especially after DB Karl Joseph went out for the year. Statistically, even with Joseph this game looked like a pretty even matchup, with OSU's defense having a major edge in the passing game. West Virginia is 126th in sacks allowed, while OSU leads the nation in sacks, and to be honest, I think OSU will find ways to neuitralize Skyler Howard. Also, Dana Holgorsen is 5-12 as a home favorite, and 1-6 in that role in conference since the 'eers joined the Big 12, with 5 of them being outright losses.
 
I am with you on navy, k-state, iowa, app state prefer the over in oky state & iowa state. I have n'western @ +10. I don't have a bet on cmu but like your reasoning. Don't think I'd lay the chalk with wky either so agree there but didn't bet it. Don't have a strong opinion on the others. BOL this week
 
13. Cal +7.5 @ Utah: While we all obviously still have the total destruction that Utah laid on Oregon fresh in our minds, it's constructive to remember that a season is not built on only one game. That game was probably one of the most impressive we've seen in years, given the competition and what our expectations of Utah and Oregon were. However, we should also remember that Utah beat a struggling Utah State team by only 10 just 2 weeks earlier and were outgained by 42 yards in the process. They also only outgained a Fresno State team who has been subsequently blown out by San Jose State by 10 yards. They had a fantastic game a couple weeks ago, but we aren't talking about some kind of unstoppable juggernaut here. Cal also comes in undefeated and is not exactly chopped liver.. They will also get starting RB Daniel Lasco back, and their defense continues to improve as they've already forced 18 turnovers this year. They also have registered 18 sacks, which is a bugaboo for the Utah offense. I haven't even gotten to Jared Goff yet and how dangerous he is for a defense with somewhat below average speed. Cal is also on a 5-0 ATS streak as a road dog.
 
mrob said:
I am with you on navy, k-state, iowa, app state prefer the over in oky state & iowa state. I have n'western @ +10. I don't have a bet on cmu but like your reasoning. Don't think I'd lay the chalk with wky either so agree there but didn't bet it. Don't have a strong opinion on the others. BOL this week
Click to expand...

Thanks mrob. I wouldn't be laying 10 with Michigan, so good get on the Cats. :shake:
 
Brass I have been looking at App. State all week wondering why the line dropped to the extent that it has? BOL on the plays, always enjoy your threads.
 
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