Week 6 Write ups and hopefully feedback

[Br@ssknux]

Sorry I'm late again this week. I went 7-7-2 last week on posted stuff. Bad luck on the pushes and I ended up getting a terrible number on Clemson.

As I may have mentioned, these write ups are from an email I send each week to a bunch of buddies. None of them are as well read as this board, which is why some of the write ups might seem a bit verbose.

Also, the lines are what has been effective today. In a lot of cases I got a better number earlier this week, but that doesn't help those guys now. They all bet tonight and tomorrow AM.

1. @Tennessee -2.5 v Florida: Frankly, I must admit that I am in full fade mode on Florida. Even stating that, this is a very nice spot for Tennessee. Let's review a few things about Florida. Since the red faced spitfiring maniac Will Muschamp came in, they've had 3 offensive coordinators and 3 different offensive coordinators: Coach Front-Butt, under whom they stunk, Brent Pease, under whom they stunk even worse, and now Kurt Roper, under whom they are currently ranked 59th in total offense and 78th in passing, which is actually good for them. If you fail offensively for 4 consecutive years under 3 different offensive coordinators, it's probably safe to say that you haven't been running a whole lot of offensive talent through the program during that time. In addition to the offensive issues, this particular Florida defense can't cover anyone either, so if Justin Worley feels like it, he should have success throwing downfield. Butch Jones is no dummy. He knows that if he stops Florida's pedestrian at best run game and forces walking turnover Jeff Driskill to beat him, he's golden. The Vols haven't beaten Florida since the Zooker was confusedly stumbling around the Florida sidelines, so they are ready to end that streak. Their confidence is high after an inspired effort in Athens last week. I think they'll get the job done this time.

 

[Br@ssknux]

2. @East Carolina -41 v SMU: I suppose SMU is due to rise up and show a pulse one of these weeks, but I don't think it's going to be this week. ECU is perpetually looking for respect, and putting up another 70 spot here might do the trick. SMU is about as broken as a program can be right now, and even if they weren't they'd have as much trouble stopping this ECU attack as everyone else has. SMU can't score against any competent defense, which ECU has. I think ECU is every bit a top 15 team, and they think so too, so they'll be pouring it on poor old SMU. I can see a 65-3 game here. |​

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. @Mississippi St -2.5 v Texas A&M: This is another of a full slate of terrific SEC games this week, and it's not going to stop in the coming weeks because all of these SEC West teams have to play each other. This should be a great game, but I like the Bulldogs situation here. Both offenses figure to have the advantage, but Mississippi St's defense is the better of the two. Also, we saw that A&M can definitely go into a funk offensively, as surprisingly Arkansas had their way with the Aggies offense for large parts of the second half last week, If not for a couple of extreme busted coverages on a couple of very long passes, A&M might not have scored in the second half. They actually showed very little ability to sustain drives during that time, and they'll be going up against a much better defense this week in hostile territory. If the Dogs can keep the bombs to a minimum,(and that's been their achilles heel thus far this year), I think they'll have success against Kenny Hill and company. I can't say the same for the A&M defense. Dan Mullen knows what he's doing, and I expect Dak Prescott to be able to do the same things to this A&M defense that he did on the road in Baton Rouge a couple weeks ago.

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. Purdue +8.5 @Illinois: At this point, I really don't think Tim Beckman and co can muster up a dominant enough effort to blow out any conference foe. As bad as Purdue is, they've been better away from Ross-Ade stadium under Hazell than they have at home. Illinois has had to come from behind in the 4th quarter in all 3 of their wins, and in the games against teams with a pulse, they've been laughably inept from the word go. I'm not saying Purdue is legit, but they're actually ranked in the middle of the pack defensively, and they have been able to muster up a decent running game against poor run defenses, which Illinois has. I would typically doubt Purdue's chances to win any Big Ten game on the road, but with the head slapping karma that Illinois has had under Beckman, anything is possible, and maybe even probable when you're talking about more than a TD spread. TB's 4-13 ATS record in conference reinforces that.

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. Oklahoma -4 @ TCU: I was looking extremely hard for reasons to bet TCU pretty much all week when the spread was 6, and I couldn't really find them. Now the spread is 4, and I'm finding even less evidence to justify it. Having said that, I think this college football season is going to continue to have crazy things happen(like Oregon's Thursday night loss) but I don't see the evidence of it here. Oklahoma is coming off a bye, and Bob Stoops knows that this is one of 2, maybe 3 games that they can possibly lose. I think he will have his team completely prepared for this one. In order for TCU to win this, they'll have to play lights out on defense. That goes without saying. The narrative is that this is a vintage TCU defense, and they are indeed ranked #1 in total defensive efficiency, but there has been very little offensive talent lining up against them so far this year. (Samford, Minnesota with a 50% Leidner and SMU). On offense, they will have to score, and I have never been a believer in QB Trevonne Boykin. he's also beat up on the competition so far this year, but had only a 7/7 ratio last year. Oklahoma's defense is no joke, especially in the back 7, and I don't see any major playmakers for this TCU offense. I don't think the Frogs have enough to get past the Sooners unless they get a shitload of turnovers and good fortune. Look out Sooners, I just gave you the D/ST TD Whammy!!

 

[Schrute]

Just sat down with a glass of wine to do my full run through and make final decisions. I've looked through it a few times already and this is gonna be a tough card. I wish you the best

 

[Br@ssknux]

Thanks Dwight.


6. New Mexico +17 @UTSA: UTSA got everyone's attention in week 1 when they completely shut down a Houston offense that many people (myself included) thought would resemble a well oiled machine this year. That has turned out to be a comical assertion, as Thursday night's action further indicated. UTSA hung with Arizona as well in week 2, but I think this is a lot of points for them to lay here. Their offense has not been impressive, ranking 116th in rushing and 114th in passing. The Lobos have a hard time stopping a stiff breeze, but at least the offensive matchup gives their defense a fighting chance. Offensively, the Lobos have some ability, and they rank10th in the country in rushing ypc. Qb Cole Gautsche, an expert in running the option, is back healthy after a 2 week hiatus, so that bodes well for them as well. 17 is a lot for UTSA to handle here...I think they're a tad overvalued.

 

[Timh]

Nice write-ups Brass, wish you the BOL this weekend.

 

[mrob]

with you on bulldogs and pirates, although I'm thinking ecu 1st half. Leaned utsa but not liking that chalk

 

[~Utah]

great stuff, GL to you this weekend

 

[Br@ssknux]

Timmy, mrob, Alex, :shake:


7. @Ole Miss +5 vs Alabama: At first glance I really figured that I would be on Bama here, but the more I look at this game, the more I like the Rebs. Obviously, you couldn't have a more jacked up environment than what you'll find in Oxford this weekend. I was completely impressed by what Ole Miss did last week against a pretty solid Memphis team in an obvious look ahead spot. The Ole Miss defense held Memphis to only 104 total yards, which followed up 3 other dominant defensive performances. So far this year, the Rebs have held opponents to 4.0 yards per attempt in the passing game and are sporting a 1-9 ratio against. Offensively, I think they match up well against a Tide defense that has had some issues with spread offenses lately, and is still finding itself in the back 7. Everyone in the world is pointing to Bo Wallace's penchant for turnovers...so much so that you almost expect an error free game from the young man. I think the Rebs make Blake Sims look human and give the Bama secondary fits. They've got a great shot at the outright in my opinion.

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. Wisconsin -7.5 @Northwestern: Although they were impressive in their woodshed beatdown of that pathetic excuse for a program in State College, I declare myself unfazed in my skepticism of the Cats this year. They still can't score, and this week they welcome in the dictionary definition of a bad matchup for them. Wisconsin is strong defensively, both against the pass and against the run, and we all know how they can run the ball. The Cats are actually ranked 16th against the run, but those numbers are skewed by heroic performances against a bunch of busters in the run game, most recently Penn State's effeminate rushing attack. I expect the Badgers to hold the Cats to their normal offensive output(very little) and grind out about a 27 point offensive effort. Again, I am not fooled by a one week aberration.

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. NC State +14 @Clemson: I get that this is a rough spot for the Wolfpack, coming off the emotional near miss against he Noles last week, but statistically this is a bit of a dead heat. If NC State gets any kind of a decent effort this week, I think they will be right in this game, and even if they don't, NC State has the offense for a back door to sneak in under 14. Clemson couldn't cover 15 last week against a helpless North Carolina squad in a game in which their freshman QB broke all kinds of records with a nearly perfect performance. I actually think he's due for a back to earth effort, and if that happens, Clemson hasn't been able to run it all year. (#113 in rushing offense). I think the value is with the Wolfpack here.

 

[Br@ssknux]

10. Baylor -14(i'd buy the .5): Basically, read Frank's thread, because I couldn't have said it any better, and he knows these teams a hell of a lot better than me. The long and short of it is that I don't think Texas can score more than about 10 points on that Baylor defense, and even if Baylor struggles on offense, they'll score enough to cover 2 TDs.

 

[Br@ssknux]

11. @Georgia -33.5 v Vanderbilt: The last 2 times Vandy has traveled to Athens, they've lost by a combined 91-3, and those teams were James Franklin coached teams that played in bowl games. Let's just say that this Vandy team is not going to any kind of bowl. They managed all of 139 yards and 8 first downs last week at Kentucky, and the idea that they might have some sort of chance to slow down Todd Gurley is a sick joke. Qb Hutson mason has been awful lately, but he gets 2 of his previously injured receivers back, so they might use this game as fodder to boost his confidence, meaning a lot of throwing later into the game than you might expect. This has 52-0 written all over it.

 

[Br@ssknux]

12. @NIU -24.5 v Kent State: Here's where Kent ranks in various categories so far this year: Rushing offense: 126th. Passing offense: 121st; Rushing defense: 94th; Passing defense: 127th. You get the message. Northern is a solid team that has already beaten Northwestern on the road and will welcome in a Kent team that won't have their only decent player, RB Trayion Durham. They can't score, and Northern QB Drew Hare will carve up that pass defense. Kent is a definite go against until further notice.

 

[Br@ssknux]

13. Georgia State +16 @ La La: I can't quite figure this line out...I suppose it's because Ga State is such a young program and the Rajun Cajuns have been solid lately. So far this year, La La has only one thing that they've done even remotely well, and that's run the ball. They can't throw it, they can't stop the run and they can't stop the pass. They've been completely non-competitive in all 3 games they've played against FBS foes...now they have to cover 16 against a Georgia State squad that actually dominated Washington for a half 2 weeks ago and has twice thrown for 400+ yards in a game this year. They also game a pretty good Air Force squad all they could handle, piling up 535 total yards in the process. La La has not done close to enough to be favored by this much over this Georgia State team.

 

[Br@ssknux]

14. @Rutgers -2 v Michigan: At this point, it would be silly to pass on fading Michigan. Maybe they give a solid effort for their embattled coach, but there has to be some disheartened me in that locker room. Don't look now, but Rutgers QB Gary Nova is the 12th ranked passer in college football. Devin Gardner, who takes over for the concussed Shane Morris, is not. Michigan has been solid defensively this year, but 250 yards has somehow been translating into 27-31 points in these games, and I believe this team is snakebitten. Hoke has to go, and everyone knows it. I think Michigan is going through the motions at this point.


15. UAB +9 @ Western Kentucky: UAB is a much better team than what they showed last week, getting knocked off by FIU at home in a fluky game. 2 of FIU's scores came on lucky defensive TD bounces and 2 came on 75 yard + bombs. Other than the two bombs, FIU had only 137 total yards, but FIU still beat UAB going away, which is giving us some line value here. WKU bodes no sigfificant barriers defensively, and UAB should be able to move almost at will. WKU will move the ball too, but there's no doubt that UAB is good enough to compete with the bunch of kids WKU is throwing out there.

 

[Br@ssknux]

16. @Auburn -7(only -115 at BOL) v LSU: Auburn has actually not looked as impressive as usual on the ground in recent weeks...they're actually ranked only 28th in the country in yards per carry, which is awful for a Gus Malzahn Auburn offense, but I think they'll get it revved up this week. LSU comes in ranked 86th(!!) against the run, still reeling from all the early defections they've had to the NFL in recent years. In a big game like this at home, I don't think there's any doubt that Auburn will move the ball and put points up on the board. LSU is smart to go to freshman Brandon Harris, who will probably eventually be really good. He might even be really good in this game, but Auburn's defense is much improved, and I'd expect some growing pains from him in this one. I see about a 35-20 game here.


17. Pitt +6 @ Virginia: Virginia is on a nice ATS run right now, and I've benefited from it, but I think they take a step back this week. Typically, this game should be about a 1 point spread either way, and I'd probably like whoever the dog was in this one because I don't think either can be trusted as a favorite of more than about a field goal in a game like this. The line is skewed a little because stupid Akron finally showed up and played how they're capable after a couple of musings losers on them. Pitt couldn't run it in that game, which ended up being their undoing. Virginia has been good against the run, but a week after being embarrassed, I think the Pitt line and James Conner will get the run game going again. Defensively, Pitt will have the strong advantage against the UVA offense both in the run game and the pass game. This just looks to me to be a hiccup game for UVA after a nice run of competence. This should be a low scoring game, so the points are valuable, but I have a feeling Pitt steals this one outright.




18. Utah +13 @ UCLA: Although they bent me over last week, I still am not sold on UCLA. They had a remarkable run in that Thursday nighter in which they scored 5 touchdowns during a span of time in which they ran 4 offensive plays. That type of happenstance is unlikely to ever happen again, so I'm not going to be fooled into thinking that their explosiveness had more to do with it than Arizona State's complete ignorance of their own goal line. Utah's defense is much better than ASU's, actually 9th best in the country in defensive efficiency(and #1 in sacks and TFL!!), so things won't be as easy for Hundley and his powderpuff offensive line. Also don't forget that ASU piled up 627 yards with a mistake prone QB who was making his first start, so Utah should have some success offensively too. Hell, even Paxton Lynch from Memphis topped 300 passing yards against them. There's lots of line value here because the Utes had a collapse in the rain last week against Washington State(called by the musings I might add). Too many points here. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if Utah gets the outright.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Other thoughts : Yes there are others believe it or not.......

Pete Lembo's Ball State squad is a dog at Army(+2.5). We all know how Army fares as a favorite, and Ball state has won and covered easily in the 3 times they've played Army under Lembo....

I would have been all over Colorado State in their home game with Tulsa had the line stayed at 14, but it's moved all the way up to 18 in some spots. Tulsa has been absolutely atrocious, especially on defense and on the road this year(50 points given up to FAU for example), but I just can't tolerate that line, and CSU might be admiring themselves after their outright win at BC last week...

.FSU(-38) will probably obliterate Wake, but shit, the Citadel only lost 37-12 to these guys, so I can't trust them to cover this number. Having said that, I think they are tired of hearing about how they haven't played like a #1 team, and they might take it out on poor Wake and the Clawfense....

Although I agree with the oddsmakers that Stanford is a bit better than ND, and I think ND's offense will be exposed this week, I'm also not completely sold on Stanford, and I think ND(+2.5) nips them making a cross country trip off a tough road game in Washington. (that was a run on sentence)...

Cincinnati's defense has the strength of a fetus and the strategic sense of General Custer so I have a hunch that Memphis(+4) gets off the mat and knocks them off.....

I also have a strong hunch that Kentucky (+3.5) beats the OBC and South Carolina. If the Gamecocks can give up almost 400 yards on the road to Vandy, they'll have a long night with Kentucky, and the Wildcats still have their whole season ahead of them while the Cocks are staring at a 3rd conference loss. Kentucky has been pretty good on defense too. I'm afraid for South Carolina here....

I won't be surprised if Nebraska(+7) gives Michigan State all they can handle. This isn't exactly the same MSU defense as last year, and Nebraska is much improved in the run game. If they can get pressure on Connor Cook, this could be an outright for the Huskers. I can't justify taking only 7 though when 10 was available and too many great cappers are on MSU for my taste...

I also think Cal will beat Washington State in the late nighter. Leach and co can't stand prosperity up there in Pullman, and Cal is very much improved while still avoiding everyone's top effort due to their recent schizophrenia.

 

[DBURGH]

Good Stuff.

 

[Two Utes]

GL today. Agree on Utah, they tried to protect a lead in the 2nd half last week and got away from what they do. I also think they could go into Pasadena and get the outright W. A lot of coaches constantly say that their team learned more from a loss than a win and I'm hoping that's the case here.

 

[B.A.R.]

Great stuff, thanks for sharing.

 

[Two Utes]

Also of note, Utah is moving Isaac Asiata from RT to LG and starting Leka Uhatafe at RT today. Junior Salt has been horrible(the biggest, strongest OL mind you) with missed assignments this year. I think you will see a much better effort from the OL over one that couldn't get 8 fucking inches against WSU last week.

 

[Marlo]

Awesome thread man, good luck today

 

[RetroVK]

Great writeups

 

[Br@ssknux]

DBURGH, B.A.R., Marlo, CC: Thanks :shake:


Utes: Congrats on a great win by the Utes. It's obvious they are much better in the dog role, and how bad of a matchup was that DL for the cupcake UCLA OL? How many times did they sack Hundley? 12? I dozed off but caught Fairbairn's miss at the end. Cashed me a nice money line parlay with along with Memphis.

Made some money this week, but as a self professed dog player I HAVE to stop playing these huge favorites. Vandy, SMU and Kent all found a way to be somewhat competent yesterday.

 

[twinkie13]

enjoyed as always:shake:

 

[Br@ssknux]

enjoyed as always:shake:

Thanks as always Twink. If I had more restraint on the big favorites, it would have been a monster this week, but happy with the way I capped, especially post 17-20. (With the exception of the Pitt play, which was fortunate to say the least and of course Nebraska)

:cheers3: