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Week 6 What Are We Learning
- Thread starter VirginiaCavs
- Start date
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Best thing to happen to the Raiders was this, he was a 10 milly/yr check collector that could just do what he wanted
I actually think they go well going forward with that loser off their asses, think they play more fun w/o him and can make some music
Bunch of talent and they underperformed under him, perfect situation if they can void that contract
brewers888
Chicken Little
I learned that the Jets do not in fact lose every Sunday.
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
As a relatively contrarian nfl bettor, these past two weeks have been brutal. Dave Mason of betonline tweeted these were the most profitable two weeks ever for the public. For me personally I probably have to take a break from nfl until things start evening out a little bit and I can rely on some of the mid/low tier teams to play competitively
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
To me it's been that way for 5 years now. Favorites and overs are remarkably cashing, not just now...think they're struggling with lines in a completely different game than it was a decade ago.
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
At some point it won't be hip to be square but NFL has paid well for those who bet the obvious lately (meaning last few years)
most high variance teams - browns, panthers, denver. At least from what they were first 3 games. Now I'm going to bet them as average to bad teams.
Patriots seem to be great home dogs and bad favs.
panthers D was great. Absolutely great. And now they are below average. Yes their offense went down the toilet but the D is playing bad and it's fundamental stuff like taking bad angles, running out of gaps, etc. Amazing the drop off.
That browns-chargers game last week had people fooled with people thinking they are such good 2 teams. With everyone on the browns because cardinals run defense and west coast flying east why wasn't everyone on the ravens too ?
I got killed with totals and really don't think they were bad plays even though they all lost. Texans moved the ball really well on the Colts in between the 20s. Were only outgained by 40 yards. David Mills actually throws some good balls. Not sure he's the problem. But this team can't score points. 3 points against the bills and colts. And the colts had given up 25 to everybody.
KC turned it over multiple times inside the 20, and both teams seemed to run alot more than normal when they could pass easily. ..KC defense may be improving some ? Skins offense I think is decent.
Patriots seem to be great home dogs and bad favs.
panthers D was great. Absolutely great. And now they are below average. Yes their offense went down the toilet but the D is playing bad and it's fundamental stuff like taking bad angles, running out of gaps, etc. Amazing the drop off.
That browns-chargers game last week had people fooled with people thinking they are such good 2 teams. With everyone on the browns because cardinals run defense and west coast flying east why wasn't everyone on the ravens too ?
I got killed with totals and really don't think they were bad plays even though they all lost. Texans moved the ball really well on the Colts in between the 20s. Were only outgained by 40 yards. David Mills actually throws some good balls. Not sure he's the problem. But this team can't score points. 3 points against the bills and colts. And the colts had given up 25 to everybody.
KC turned it over multiple times inside the 20, and both teams seemed to run alot more than normal when they could pass easily. ..KC defense may be improving some ? Skins offense I think is decent.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Steelers/Seahawks - Two weeks in a row the Steelers have had a two score lead at home against a mediocre QB on a mediocre team, and two weeks in a row the game has come right down to the wire. They used to say Tomlin teams would play to the level of their competition, but considering they were coming off a three game losing streak I'd say they're just as mediocre as their opponents. They close with 8 straight games against legit playoff contenders/good offenses, so watch out below.
Seahawks are in trouble with Geno. Amazing how you can be in the league for7 9 years and still not be able to read a defense or anticipate a rush.
Dallas/NE - All I had to hear was "illegal double team block" on the opening kickoff to know this was going to be one of THOSE Foxboro games. Considering the players overcame the officiating (Dak was clearly in on 3rd down!), some coverage mistakes AND their own dumbass head coach (going for it at their own 35 playing against a rookie QB? Really? You expected a shootout?) to pull out the win tells me this team is special right now. Too bad the bye week is already here, I worry they'll lose that chip they've been playing with on their shoulder.
Was glad to see the Pats start to get a running game. They could easily be 4-2 right now. But at 2-4 I don't think they have enough winnable games left to get over .500.
LV/Denver - We can officially proclaim Denver's 3-0 start as fraudulent. The surprise is how poorly Fangio's defense is playing. They only have a couple of winnable games left on a difficult rest of year schedule.
Vegas really rallied post-Gruden. Whether that's sustainable I don't know, but they've got a couple of nice matchups coming up before the schedule gets very tough.
Cards/Browns - Cards are just a damn good team on both sides of the ball. Browns minus Chubb seemed like they were playing without their soul. Thought Hunt could carry the load, then he gets hurt. Saw a lot of wide open people in the Browns secondary for the 2nd week in a row. Thought their pass D was a strength?
Chargers/Ravens - Every year Baltimore seems to have one of those games where they just embarrass the shit out of a team that turns out to be pretty good:
2020 - Browns 38-6
2019 - Rams 45-6
2018 - Titans 21-0
I'm willing to chalk the Chargers loss to being a 1 pm east coast game after a wild track meet against the Browns and a couple of huge division wins. The offense will be fine, will have to wait and see on the defense.
Minny/Carolina - Just a couple of middle of the road teams that will have good weeks and bad weeks. I don't see either making a big run or suffering a big decline, although the CMac news is a bit devastating.
KC-Wash - Much needed balance in the KC offense, with Williams getting a heavy workload and Mahomes finding the other (not 10 or 87) receivers about 10 times. Seemed like he took a little more of what was given, but he still has a little bit of the gunslinger attitude. The Football Team is just a mess right now. They won't commit to the run but they don't have enough weapons to pass all day. At Green Bay next week? Yikes.
Rams/Giants - I was worried about the 1 pm time for the Rams but I forgot they hadn't played since Thursday. They looked fresh and ready to dominate, and the undermanned Giants obliged. Giants have a competitive game on the schedule for next week against up and down Carolina, but we'll have to see who's cleared to play. Another angle from the old Big Ben years that I've learned is beware the QB cleared after a concussion the previous week. They're still not 100%.
Hou/Indy - Did not see much but it always seemed like Indy was making a big play when I checked in. Good thing because they only ran 48 plays and were 3-10 on 3rd down. Texans went 9-17 on third down and only scored 3? That means turnovers. At this point it might be worth blinding bet the 2nd halves against the Texans. They been outscored by a minimum of 9 in the 2nd half each of the last 5 weeks. In week 1 they beat the Jags by 16 but were still outscored in the 2nd half.
Cincy/Det - I didn't think the trends could continue for these two teams of close games, and it didn't Bengals are flying strong under the radar right now. Huge tilt with the Ravens next week and I think the books are still underestimating them a little. Bengals +6.5 looks like a play, game should almost certainly be tighter than that.
GB/Chi - No real surprise that Rodgers did enough to get the cover. He said he owns them and he does. Pack get another nice game next week against WFT before a monster pair of road games at Arizona on a THURSDAY (wow) and at KC. Bears should slide down the standings the next few weeks (at TB, SF, at Pitt, Balt) as Field continues to learn.
Mia/Jax - Two teams going nowhere while they hope their QBs continue to develop. A slight edge to the Jags who have the better QB talent and also have a RB they trust. Phins pass D has been a huge disappointment considering the talent they have a CB. Miami does get a winnable game against the Falcons this week, Jags could surprise in two weeks at Seattle and watch out for them late in the year when they have the revenge game vs Hou, then at NYJ, at NE and finish hosting an Indy team that me be out of it.
Tam/Phi - Bucs have been a little shaky on the road (0-3) ATS but things line up great for them the next 7 weeks before their SB preview against the Bills. Eagles at Raiders is one of the tougher games on the card next week. Eagle are generally playing hard for the full 60 minutes despite Hurts shortcomings with the pass.
Seahawks are in trouble with Geno. Amazing how you can be in the league for
Dallas/NE - All I had to hear was "illegal double team block" on the opening kickoff to know this was going to be one of THOSE Foxboro games. Considering the players overcame the officiating (Dak was clearly in on 3rd down!), some coverage mistakes AND their own dumbass head coach (going for it at their own 35 playing against a rookie QB? Really? You expected a shootout?) to pull out the win tells me this team is special right now. Too bad the bye week is already here, I worry they'll lose that chip they've been playing with on their shoulder.
Was glad to see the Pats start to get a running game. They could easily be 4-2 right now. But at 2-4 I don't think they have enough winnable games left to get over .500.
LV/Denver - We can officially proclaim Denver's 3-0 start as fraudulent. The surprise is how poorly Fangio's defense is playing. They only have a couple of winnable games left on a difficult rest of year schedule.
Vegas really rallied post-Gruden. Whether that's sustainable I don't know, but they've got a couple of nice matchups coming up before the schedule gets very tough.
Cards/Browns - Cards are just a damn good team on both sides of the ball. Browns minus Chubb seemed like they were playing without their soul. Thought Hunt could carry the load, then he gets hurt. Saw a lot of wide open people in the Browns secondary for the 2nd week in a row. Thought their pass D was a strength?
Chargers/Ravens - Every year Baltimore seems to have one of those games where they just embarrass the shit out of a team that turns out to be pretty good:
2020 - Browns 38-6
2019 - Rams 45-6
2018 - Titans 21-0
I'm willing to chalk the Chargers loss to being a 1 pm east coast game after a wild track meet against the Browns and a couple of huge division wins. The offense will be fine, will have to wait and see on the defense.
Minny/Carolina - Just a couple of middle of the road teams that will have good weeks and bad weeks. I don't see either making a big run or suffering a big decline, although the CMac news is a bit devastating.
KC-Wash - Much needed balance in the KC offense, with Williams getting a heavy workload and Mahomes finding the other (not 10 or 87) receivers about 10 times. Seemed like he took a little more of what was given, but he still has a little bit of the gunslinger attitude. The Football Team is just a mess right now. They won't commit to the run but they don't have enough weapons to pass all day. At Green Bay next week? Yikes.
Rams/Giants - I was worried about the 1 pm time for the Rams but I forgot they hadn't played since Thursday. They looked fresh and ready to dominate, and the undermanned Giants obliged. Giants have a competitive game on the schedule for next week against up and down Carolina, but we'll have to see who's cleared to play. Another angle from the old Big Ben years that I've learned is beware the QB cleared after a concussion the previous week. They're still not 100%.
Hou/Indy - Did not see much but it always seemed like Indy was making a big play when I checked in. Good thing because they only ran 48 plays and were 3-10 on 3rd down. Texans went 9-17 on third down and only scored 3? That means turnovers. At this point it might be worth blinding bet the 2nd halves against the Texans. They been outscored by a minimum of 9 in the 2nd half each of the last 5 weeks. In week 1 they beat the Jags by 16 but were still outscored in the 2nd half.
Cincy/Det - I didn't think the trends could continue for these two teams of close games, and it didn't Bengals are flying strong under the radar right now. Huge tilt with the Ravens next week and I think the books are still underestimating them a little. Bengals +6.5 looks like a play, game should almost certainly be tighter than that.
GB/Chi - No real surprise that Rodgers did enough to get the cover. He said he owns them and he does. Pack get another nice game next week against WFT before a monster pair of road games at Arizona on a THURSDAY (wow) and at KC. Bears should slide down the standings the next few weeks (at TB, SF, at Pitt, Balt) as Field continues to learn.
Mia/Jax - Two teams going nowhere while they hope their QBs continue to develop. A slight edge to the Jags who have the better QB talent and also have a RB they trust. Phins pass D has been a huge disappointment considering the talent they have a CB. Miami does get a winnable game against the Falcons this week, Jags could surprise in two weeks at Seattle and watch out for them late in the year when they have the revenge game vs Hou, then at NYJ, at NE and finish hosting an Indy team that me be out of it.
Tam/Phi - Bucs have been a little shaky on the road (0-3) ATS but things line up great for them the next 7 weeks before their SB preview against the Bills. Eagles at Raiders is one of the tougher games on the card next week. Eagle are generally playing hard for the full 60 minutes despite Hurts shortcomings with the pass.
I have a thought on this, later, remind me.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
A couple of things really jumped out at me yesterday, a good bit of it to do with QBs.
First, I watched the fourth quarter of that Miami/Jags game—yes, because I have a gambling problem, thanks mom. Anyway, I was genuinely impressed with how both Tua and Lawrence looked. I feel like there might be more hope for the future of these teams than one might think.
That said, Miami really looked like a team in the fourth quarter who was realizing that this is what their season is, clawing to get a win against arguably the worst team in football. And when they lost, you could feel the frustration oozing off that sideline. This sucks for Tua because you could see he’s really trying to make up for lost time due to his injury. But I don’t think his team is going to be there for him.
I don’t know what’s going on with Flores, but I think this team is in quit mode. Also, they’re 1-5 so they’re fucked.
On the other side, I don’t know if Urban Meyer tried to finger-bang anybody on the plane ride home, and I will say he made some really dumb coaching decisions during the game—BUT the call that won them the game? That’s the kind of call that can win you back your locker room.
I’m not going to go nuts on the Jags or anything. I think Miami was their best shot at a win for another few weeks, but big momentum boost for them. And with the way Lawrence is throwing the football, I will not be surprised to see them hanging around a bit.
I also watched a lot of the Raiders/Broncos game and honestly, when you get Good Derek Carr, that guy might be top five in the league. The problem is, not only do you not get Good Derek Carr from game to game, you don’t even get him from quarter to quarter. But when he’s on, he can make every throw, every read, and just win you a game nearly by himself. It’s just tough to bet on because you don’t know if you can get that for more than a quarter. If you can get it for two, you’ve got a shot. Yesterday, it looked like you got it for nearly three quarters and, given that, that game really wasn’t as close as the score.
Also, on the Raiders, I think yesterday is really who they are and probably who they’ll be for the next few weeks. They throw the ball well, they’ll also let you throw on them a bit, but I think what they want to do is get you into a game of who can be more accurate. Problem is, again, they’re relying on Derek Carr to win that battle which is super dicey.
Speaking of QBs, Aaron Rogers definitely and officially looks like he’s committed to giving a shit. And to owning the Bears.
But on the other side of the ball, again, I liked what I saw from Justin Fields a lot yesterday. Now, some of that was just being able to hit wide open guys because GB wasn’t really covering anybody inside the hashmarks, but still. This Bears team isn’t good, but I think they hold their own here in the middle of the season vs. some of the teams that start looking for excuses.
I didn’t see Carson Wentz yesterday, but he made those of us who closed our eyes and had the Colts in survivor pools look like geniuses. The highlight throws from him at least were really impressive. So too was the Colts’ bounce-back just in general. This is a team that, based on their record, could have had a huge hangover after that loss on Monday night. They didn’t. That says good things about them. They’re still 2-4. But they’re in a division with bad teams. They still have one more with Houston, two with J’Ville, and they get the Jets. Those games alone would get them back over .500. Big road test for them this week though, getting SF coming off a bye.
Speaking of teams that didn’t have a letdown, how about Baltimore. And, really, I could have said Arizona, too. Both teams come of huge wins, get good opponents—in Arizona’s case, an out of conference opponent so it’s one of the games you care the absolute least about—and both teams just smoke teams that look like playoff contenders. That speaks really well of both of those clubs. And their QBs.
Something we don’t talk a ton about in this thread is the value (and downside) of early lines. Early lines are obviously great when they move your way, everyone knows that. And a lot of times you can lock in value straight or say on a tease that might not be there later in the week. The downside? Well, my Cleveland bet this week can tell you all about it.
I got in on a good ML early in the week, but by game-time Chubb was out and everything felt bad about the play. But I bet out of things less than I probably should and just let it ride into a game that wasn’t really close. So much for that. Point being, early lines are great, but one thing I know I need to remember is to not get blinded by a number to the point where I neglect the spot or injuries or the posts in the NSFW forum.
Speaking of Cleveland, this team is fucked right now. They were banged up going into the game, and they’re worse now. It’s not even Baker—who dislocated his non-throwing shoulder yet again. It’s Kareem Hunt who’s now out for multiple games. OBJ is hurt but what’s new. There are OL injuries. There are secondary injuries. It’s a mess. And they play this Thursday because, you know, the NFL loves player safety. By which I mean money.
I agree with Gandolf on Geno. We all thought Seattle's season was pretty much toast when Russ went down. It's really difficult to say anything other than that after last night. Last night you knew you were going to get a good effort from them. And they played their guts out. But they only got back into the game by basically taking the ball out of Geno's hands entirely. That's not sustainable.
As BAR mentioned above, the public had a huge day yesterday, GB, Dallas, KC, AZ outright, LAR, all win and cover. I feel like yesterday should have been the kind of day I do really well on. (Full disclosure, Cleveland was my loser, then I had the Jags & Raiders, plus a little ML parlay of the Rams/KC/LAR. So it was fine, but I didn’t really love the card).
But I think yesterday gets to something others are hinting at above which is something we’ve kind of been talking around since the start of the season. The NFL is different now. It’s not what it was ten years ago. It’s not really even what it was five years ago.
You have to be able to throw to have success. And when you talk about Vegas struggling to adjust the lines, they may have snapped a little this week because we have three in double digits right now, maybe four if Green Bay keeps taking money. If you can block for your guy and if he can throw, and if you can stay healthy, that right there might be enough to justify the bet.
More specific numbers on specific teams and thoughts later.
First, I watched the fourth quarter of that Miami/Jags game—yes, because I have a gambling problem, thanks mom. Anyway, I was genuinely impressed with how both Tua and Lawrence looked. I feel like there might be more hope for the future of these teams than one might think.
That said, Miami really looked like a team in the fourth quarter who was realizing that this is what their season is, clawing to get a win against arguably the worst team in football. And when they lost, you could feel the frustration oozing off that sideline. This sucks for Tua because you could see he’s really trying to make up for lost time due to his injury. But I don’t think his team is going to be there for him.
I don’t know what’s going on with Flores, but I think this team is in quit mode. Also, they’re 1-5 so they’re fucked.
On the other side, I don’t know if Urban Meyer tried to finger-bang anybody on the plane ride home, and I will say he made some really dumb coaching decisions during the game—BUT the call that won them the game? That’s the kind of call that can win you back your locker room.
I’m not going to go nuts on the Jags or anything. I think Miami was their best shot at a win for another few weeks, but big momentum boost for them. And with the way Lawrence is throwing the football, I will not be surprised to see them hanging around a bit.
I also watched a lot of the Raiders/Broncos game and honestly, when you get Good Derek Carr, that guy might be top five in the league. The problem is, not only do you not get Good Derek Carr from game to game, you don’t even get him from quarter to quarter. But when he’s on, he can make every throw, every read, and just win you a game nearly by himself. It’s just tough to bet on because you don’t know if you can get that for more than a quarter. If you can get it for two, you’ve got a shot. Yesterday, it looked like you got it for nearly three quarters and, given that, that game really wasn’t as close as the score.
Also, on the Raiders, I think yesterday is really who they are and probably who they’ll be for the next few weeks. They throw the ball well, they’ll also let you throw on them a bit, but I think what they want to do is get you into a game of who can be more accurate. Problem is, again, they’re relying on Derek Carr to win that battle which is super dicey.
Speaking of QBs, Aaron Rogers definitely and officially looks like he’s committed to giving a shit. And to owning the Bears.
But on the other side of the ball, again, I liked what I saw from Justin Fields a lot yesterday. Now, some of that was just being able to hit wide open guys because GB wasn’t really covering anybody inside the hashmarks, but still. This Bears team isn’t good, but I think they hold their own here in the middle of the season vs. some of the teams that start looking for excuses.
I didn’t see Carson Wentz yesterday, but he made those of us who closed our eyes and had the Colts in survivor pools look like geniuses. The highlight throws from him at least were really impressive. So too was the Colts’ bounce-back just in general. This is a team that, based on their record, could have had a huge hangover after that loss on Monday night. They didn’t. That says good things about them. They’re still 2-4. But they’re in a division with bad teams. They still have one more with Houston, two with J’Ville, and they get the Jets. Those games alone would get them back over .500. Big road test for them this week though, getting SF coming off a bye.
Speaking of teams that didn’t have a letdown, how about Baltimore. And, really, I could have said Arizona, too. Both teams come of huge wins, get good opponents—in Arizona’s case, an out of conference opponent so it’s one of the games you care the absolute least about—and both teams just smoke teams that look like playoff contenders. That speaks really well of both of those clubs. And their QBs.
Something we don’t talk a ton about in this thread is the value (and downside) of early lines. Early lines are obviously great when they move your way, everyone knows that. And a lot of times you can lock in value straight or say on a tease that might not be there later in the week. The downside? Well, my Cleveland bet this week can tell you all about it.
I got in on a good ML early in the week, but by game-time Chubb was out and everything felt bad about the play. But I bet out of things less than I probably should and just let it ride into a game that wasn’t really close. So much for that. Point being, early lines are great, but one thing I know I need to remember is to not get blinded by a number to the point where I neglect the spot or injuries or the posts in the NSFW forum.
Speaking of Cleveland, this team is fucked right now. They were banged up going into the game, and they’re worse now. It’s not even Baker—who dislocated his non-throwing shoulder yet again. It’s Kareem Hunt who’s now out for multiple games. OBJ is hurt but what’s new. There are OL injuries. There are secondary injuries. It’s a mess. And they play this Thursday because, you know, the NFL loves player safety. By which I mean money.
I agree with Gandolf on Geno. We all thought Seattle's season was pretty much toast when Russ went down. It's really difficult to say anything other than that after last night. Last night you knew you were going to get a good effort from them. And they played their guts out. But they only got back into the game by basically taking the ball out of Geno's hands entirely. That's not sustainable.
As BAR mentioned above, the public had a huge day yesterday, GB, Dallas, KC, AZ outright, LAR, all win and cover. I feel like yesterday should have been the kind of day I do really well on. (Full disclosure, Cleveland was my loser, then I had the Jags & Raiders, plus a little ML parlay of the Rams/KC/LAR. So it was fine, but I didn’t really love the card).
But I think yesterday gets to something others are hinting at above which is something we’ve kind of been talking around since the start of the season. The NFL is different now. It’s not what it was ten years ago. It’s not really even what it was five years ago.
You have to be able to throw to have success. And when you talk about Vegas struggling to adjust the lines, they may have snapped a little this week because we have three in double digits right now, maybe four if Green Bay keeps taking money. If you can block for your guy and if he can throw, and if you can stay healthy, that right there might be enough to justify the bet.
More specific numbers on specific teams and thoughts later.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Teams who are unwatchable.
Jacksonville
Miami
Giants
Jets
Detroit
Houston
Atlanta
Really nothing new here but my point is, WhyTF would you put your money on these teams??? They play UGLY football.
Jacksonville
Miami
Giants
Jets
Detroit
Houston
Atlanta
Really nothing new here but my point is, WhyTF would you put your money on these teams??? They play UGLY football.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
A few of these actually seem to be trying to compete...
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
I was wrong about AZ…I don’t think I am about CAR being fool’s gold
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Carolina kinda are missing a key guy
They're the best team in the NFC South with him
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I had them beating TB in the South pre season
His loss probably costs them two victories
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Yeah, it's hard to assess Carolina without McCaffrey. But that their defensive line seems to have gone from a huge strength to kind of average is a huge problem as long as their offense is down one of the most talented guys in the league.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Yep was shocked how awful their defense was yesterday. You know Dalvin is getting his but in obvious passing situations they got zero pressure on Cousins. That was something I couldn't have accounted for.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
I really don't think the way the Titans rely on Henry is sustainable—but he is so much fun to watch. Also, you have to think that tonight getting Jones and Brown back should bounce their confidence back up that they can diversify the offense and throw the ball more. If they can get back to that and stay healthy, this Titans team can be dangerous.
Of course, it looked like they had guys dropping all over the place out there tonight. Honestly, it felt like a playoff game. Huge break for Buffalo getting a week off after that. Meanwhile, Tennessee is rewarded with KC. Although, it is at home. Feels like a name your score kind of game, really.
Of course, it looked like they had guys dropping all over the place out there tonight. Honestly, it felt like a playoff game. Huge break for Buffalo getting a week off after that. Meanwhile, Tennessee is rewarded with KC. Although, it is at home. Feels like a name your score kind of game, really.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Right? They almost fucked it up, but watching Jax finally win on Sunday was a magical experience for my ML play.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Something that, I believe, @Capaholic said a couple of weeks ago in this thread has been bouncing around in my big ol’ head and I’ve been trying to find a way to put it into words. I’m not completely sure I’ve done that, but I feel like I have to try.
Basically it was something to the effect of, ‘These threads are fun, but in the end they have very little effect on the next week’s games.’ I’m sure I’m paraphrasing that poorly, but the general point has stuck with me. Less about the thread(s)—be nice to the threads, they’ve never done anything to you—but more about how to approach the NFL from week to week.
Every year, after Week 1, we always say. “Don’t overreact to one week.” Which, of course, everybody does because it’s all the real data we have, etc. And, also of course, the quicker you can get away from that, the better you tend to be able to see the following week.
But the larger point is, I think that applies every week. Or should. Let me back up.
For a long time, I was and have been more of a feel type handicapper. Let me watch a team, let me get a good sense of who they are and where they are and, generally, I can give you a good sense of where they’ll be for their next game. For example, this year, I watched a lot of White Sox baseball and while there were certainly games I was way off on, a good bit of the time I could tell you, ‘Hey, this is the ‘we’re not really trying today’ lineup,’ or ‘Hey, this is a bounce-back spot where you can lay the -1.5,’ etc.
But to do that, you rely on the story a team tells over the course of their season. It’s like poker, tell me how you played the first two streets and I have a much better idea of what you’re going to do on the third.
However, in sports, and I think maybe in football more than anything, there is a danger of getting too attached to the story of a team from one week to the next. This isn’t baseball where, for example, you wouldn’t want to step in front of that Red Sox train right now—or where the Cards had that run of 17 straight at the end of the season. While the events are still correlated in the NFL, there’s very much a hard start and a hard stop to every week.
Point is, what stuck with me and what I think has helped over the course of the last two weeks is to internalize only the things that you think a team will carry with them from this game into the next one, and leave everything else in the week the game was played.
Love how Carson Wentz played against Houston? Fantastic. Does SF have a similar DL to Houston? Is their secondary roughly the same? If so, that may matter. If it isn’t, especially since SF is not only out of the division, but out of the conference, it may not.
What carries over vs. what's a bright shiny object that won't matter a week from now. To me that’s things like turnovers, sacks, sacks allowed, yards per play, things that define them for a season rather than what defined them for a single few hours on one specific Sunday.
All of this may mean nothing to a whole lot of you, which is cool, but for me it’s helped me isolate some things and separate teams from week to week. For example, I’d originally written off Jacksonville right out of the gate. But sure enough, they were on my card on last Sunday. Likewise, I think Denver is going the wrong direction, I was on the Raiders on Sunday, but I’ve already teased the Broncos on Thursday. Anyway, I’m not sure I’d have shifted that fast on teams in the past, and for that I blame @Capaholic. And some of the rest of you. Hope it helps.
Basically it was something to the effect of, ‘These threads are fun, but in the end they have very little effect on the next week’s games.’ I’m sure I’m paraphrasing that poorly, but the general point has stuck with me. Less about the thread(s)—be nice to the threads, they’ve never done anything to you—but more about how to approach the NFL from week to week.
Every year, after Week 1, we always say. “Don’t overreact to one week.” Which, of course, everybody does because it’s all the real data we have, etc. And, also of course, the quicker you can get away from that, the better you tend to be able to see the following week.
But the larger point is, I think that applies every week. Or should. Let me back up.
For a long time, I was and have been more of a feel type handicapper. Let me watch a team, let me get a good sense of who they are and where they are and, generally, I can give you a good sense of where they’ll be for their next game. For example, this year, I watched a lot of White Sox baseball and while there were certainly games I was way off on, a good bit of the time I could tell you, ‘Hey, this is the ‘we’re not really trying today’ lineup,’ or ‘Hey, this is a bounce-back spot where you can lay the -1.5,’ etc.
But to do that, you rely on the story a team tells over the course of their season. It’s like poker, tell me how you played the first two streets and I have a much better idea of what you’re going to do on the third.
However, in sports, and I think maybe in football more than anything, there is a danger of getting too attached to the story of a team from one week to the next. This isn’t baseball where, for example, you wouldn’t want to step in front of that Red Sox train right now—or where the Cards had that run of 17 straight at the end of the season. While the events are still correlated in the NFL, there’s very much a hard start and a hard stop to every week.
Point is, what stuck with me and what I think has helped over the course of the last two weeks is to internalize only the things that you think a team will carry with them from this game into the next one, and leave everything else in the week the game was played.
Love how Carson Wentz played against Houston? Fantastic. Does SF have a similar DL to Houston? Is their secondary roughly the same? If so, that may matter. If it isn’t, especially since SF is not only out of the division, but out of the conference, it may not.
What carries over vs. what's a bright shiny object that won't matter a week from now. To me that’s things like turnovers, sacks, sacks allowed, yards per play, things that define them for a season rather than what defined them for a single few hours on one specific Sunday.
All of this may mean nothing to a whole lot of you, which is cool, but for me it’s helped me isolate some things and separate teams from week to week. For example, I’d originally written off Jacksonville right out of the gate. But sure enough, they were on my card on last Sunday. Likewise, I think Denver is going the wrong direction, I was on the Raiders on Sunday, but I’ve already teased the Broncos on Thursday. Anyway, I’m not sure I’d have shifted that fast on teams in the past, and for that I blame @Capaholic. And some of the rest of you. Hope it helps.
Very well put. I think football, more than any other (especially NFL), is a game of schemes and gameplans and matchups. Coaches matter more in the NFL than any other sport/league.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Much appreciated. And you're right.
Funny story, to this day I remember one of what I think was one of my smartest bets ever, and I'm pretty sure it was only a one unit play on just another weekend. It was like 10 years ago, the Bengals were pretty decent at the time, but they had that corps of really good WRs with Chad et. al. They went into Atlanta I believe, the Falcons were playing well, scoring a good bit, etc. But when you looked at the matchup, Atlanta didn't have a single corner over like 5'10", meanwhile Cincy's big three WRs were all like 6'4" and above. It was maybe the easiest over I've ever hit in my life, and it was 100% matchup based. To this day I'm like, 'Man, that was a smart bet.' Hahahaha.
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
“You’re never as good or as bad as you were last game” is an old saying I’ve heard, I def try to keep in mind for NFL especially
