Week 6 thoughts

CapeCodCannibal · Oct 12, 2015

Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total
10/15 8:25 ET Atlanta -3.5 At New Orleans 51
10/18 1:00 ET Denver -4.5 At Cleveland 42
10/18 1:00 ET Cincinnati -2 At Buffalo 44.5
10/18 1:00 ET At Minnesota -3.5 Kansas City 44.5
10/18 1:00 ET Houston -1 At Jacksonville 43
10/18 1:00 ET At Detroit -3 Chicago 43
10/18 1:00 ET At NY Jets -5.5 Washington 40.5
10/18 1:00 ET Arizona -4 At Pittsburgh 45.5
10/18 1:00 ET At Tennessee -2.5 Miami 43.5
10/18 4:05 ET At Seattle -7 Carolina 41
10/18 4:25 ET At Green Bay -9.5 San Diego 49.5
10/18 4:25 ET Baltimore -2.5 At San Francisco 44
10/18 8:30 ET New England -7.5 At Indianapolis 55

Monday Night Football Line
10/19 8:30 ET At Philadelphia -3.5 NY Giants 50

CapeCodCannibal · Oct 12, 2015

Atlanta will be bet up. Hard to justify a play on the Saints.

I like Washington +5.5

Like NE, line will go up.

The good old square NE, GB tease looks nice.

nbafan88 · Oct 13, 2015

I guess this is the week 6 discussion thread?

Ron Rivera is 0-4 ATS after a bye week fwiw

nbafan88 · Oct 13, 2015

can someone explain to me how the Chiefs are only getting 3 points? Seems like bait with Minnesota

Zeke · Oct 13, 2015

I jumped on Minny early. KC sucked with Charles.

wizardofodd · Oct 13, 2015

early glance, looks like a tough week for me

nbafan88 · Oct 13, 2015

Zeke said:
I jumped on Minny early. KC sucked with Charles.

I have to do some research to see where the players heads are. Back in 2011 when Charles got hurt in the second game of the season the team was completely lost in the game at Detroit and the lions blew them out. Then they went to SD and lost 20-17 the following week without Charles.

USUALLY Other players step up and the opposition takes the team lightly during the week and on game day. The line speaks volumes to me. It could've been a TD or more.

Andy Reid can go back to his old philly days now and just air it out. Maclin should be a solid prop play this upcoming week.

Sticky_Socks · Oct 13, 2015

I will continue betting every pats over and every Denver under. I smell 40 points for NE this week vs a sloppy looking Indi team. With or without Luck.

ATL looks great.

I love TEN vs Miami after everything that organization just went through they don't come out swinging with a new coach.

If Jeffery and Royals comes back CHI +3 at home may be a play vs a struggling DET.

BJPLAYER · Oct 13, 2015

Revenge week for Pats? I doubt that Belichick has even mentioned it in practice nor has any other team official. Brady certainly has an ax to grind with Indy and I am certain you are going to get his max effort. Luck will get his against the pats d so Pats and over for me

i don't get the Jets line. I can see 3.5 but not six

Love cleve getting points against a worst of the undefeateded denver team although denver's d could get them the cover here

Zona getting Pitt on short week and after using up all their bonus points on Monday

tenn -2.5 looks like a gift....miami totally dysfunctional after coaching change and has looked soft as a grape thus far

Lexington 125 · Oct 13, 2015

Tyrod Taylor about to be gone for a couple weeks with an MCL strain. EJ gets his last shot at an audition. Have to see what's going on with RB situation but the D was great 2ndh.... Obvious let down spot for both teams really, but Gilmore played his best game of the season and the D-line woke up. I think Eifert poses a big problem if a LB gets matched on him 1 on 1, but Dalton could throw up that road dud if Mario is in his face all day. I think the Bills defense could force tos and the line is sitting at 3.5 right now from I believe a 2 opener.

Gyno · Oct 13, 2015

nbafan88 said:
I have to do some research to see where the players heads are. Back in 2011 when Charles got hurt in the second game of the season the team was completely lost in the game at Detroit and the lions blew them out. Then they went to SD and lost 20-17 the following week without Charles.

USUALLY Other players step up and the opposition takes the team lightly during the week and on game day. The line speaks volumes to me. It could've been a TD or more.

Andy Reid can go back to his old philly days now and just air it out. Maclin should be a solid prop play this upcoming week.

Alex Smith is their QB

2daBank · Oct 14, 2015

nbafan88 said:
I have to do some research to see where the players heads are. Back in 2011 when Charles got hurt in the second game of the season the team was completely lost in the game at Detroit and the lions blew them out. Then they went to SD and lost 20-17 the following week without Charles.

USUALLY Other players step up and the opposition takes the team lightly during the week and on game day. The line speaks volumes to me. It could've been a TD or more.

Andy Reid can go back to his old philly days now and just air it out. Maclin should be a solid prop play this upcoming week.

kc oline is horrid man, if they try airing it out smith gonna be getting creamed all day. minny lines been short ever since dumping week 1 in sf. less than fg favs to det and sd, then got a full td against donks. im not much of a line reader but to me it falls right in line with how they been getting treated. charles not worth shit on a spread if that why you saying it could have been higher. id expect minny to get 23-24 rather easily and i just dont see kc able to put up more than 20, unless they do "air it out" but then minny d gonna score or set up a few scores of their own imo..

2daBank · Oct 14, 2015

Lexington 125 said:
Tyrod Taylor about to be gone for a couple weeks with an MCL strain. EJ gets his last shot at an audition. Have to see what's going on with RB situation but the D was great 2ndh.... Obvious let down spot for both teams really, but Gilmore played his best game of the season and the D-line woke up. I think Eifert poses a big problem if a LB gets matched on him 1 on 1, but Dalton could throw up that road dud if Mario is in his face all day. I think the Bills defense could force tos and the line is sitting at 3.5 right now from I believe a 2 opener.

i think this is def the week ginger has a ginger type game. really dont like the idea of backing ej, last time i saw him he was terrible., doesnt set feet, no presence, cant hit a barn when surrounded by traffic. maybe he has progressed tho i dunno?

Lexington 125 · Oct 14, 2015

2daBank said:
i think this is def the week ginger has a ginger type game. really dont like the idea of backing ej, last time i saw him he was terrible., doesnt set feet, no presence, cant hit a barn when surrounded by traffic. maybe he has progressed tho i dunno?

He definitely looked better the last preseason game 7 of 8 120 2tds. Stepped up and threw a perfect strike to Clay for a long td. Keep in mind he never had Clay in the mix and Sammy's return will open up the whole field of play. The general consensus was that he had a strong preseason but ultimately Tyrod's athleticism won him the starting job. There were fans calling for EJ during the game Sunday, and even after Tyrod put the team on his back and won. EJ meshes well with Woods so I could see him getting way more targets. Karlos Williams returning would be huge, he is a better runner than Rawls (who shredded Cincy for most of the game last week) but his status is still uncertain. Biggest ? is Watkins for me.

2daBank · Oct 14, 2015

Lexington 125 said:
He definitely looked better the last preseason game 7 of 8 120 2tds. Stepped up and threw a perfect strike to Clay for a long td. Keep in mind he never had Clay in the mix and Sammy's return will open up the whole field of play. The general consensus was that he had a strong preseason but ultimately Tyrod's athleticism won him the starting job. There were fans calling for EJ during the game Sunday, and even after Tyrod put the team on his back and won. EJ meshes well with Woods so I could see him getting way more targets. Karlos Williams returning would be huge, he is a better runner than Rawls (who shredded Cincy for most of the game last week) but his status is still uncertain. Biggest ? is Watkins for me.

good stuff, i thought when they drafted him he could develop into a good qb but obviously that didnt happen right away. i really think the defense gonna do a number on dalton so i was mostly concerned with ej making mistakes that give ginger opportunities to stay in game. id love for williams to return, the way my dfs lineups appear to be shaping up i could really use him in that price slot so ill be checking closely on that.. i heard some comments by rex that implied watkins was really close last week and sounded as if he would be a go in this game. not sure if anything has changed with him or not?

really think this game sets up well for bills, ive been on cincy basically every game until passing last week cause i thought they finally had them lined correctly. laying 3.5 at buffalo is getting steep imo, wernt the pats less than a fg fav when they visited buffalo? as high as i been on cincy im not ready to say they should be laying bigger road numbers than the freaking pats! dalton been great and it no fluke but it really hard to believe he doesnt have a old andy game or 2 in him, cant think of a better venue or defense to bring it out..

2daBank · Oct 14, 2015

just got done messing with the pats/colts sunday nighter. i came away thinking they cant make this total high enough. pats been hanging huge numbers taking out their wrath on the league, now they get the crying little snitches that started the whole ordeal. i cant envision them not looking to score on every drive or letting up at any point, better yet for the overs purposes is i really doubt the colts mediocre defense can do anything about it..it certainly possible pats hang another 40 spot and dont leave a lot needed from the colts. i dont think that how it gonna go tho, i actually think luck's absence has been good for this team and now when he returns he the last piece of the high powered offense they envisioned with the off season moves and not the guy trying to do it all himself and taking a beating in the process. not only did indy establish some things w/o him which i think huge they also let luck sit back and see they can in fact win games without him doing it all. this all a lot of speculation about the indy offense but i think has some merit. gore and johnson have had a chance to establish roles and now give luck a ton of weapons to attack this defense. a pats defense he has seen plenty of at this point and has lost as much talent as he has gained. this smells like a sunday night blockbuster to me, a back and forth video game where colts push them to the end and have every huge pats ats, ml, and teaser on the end of their seats as last team with the ball wins. just a hunch. lol.

GWarner27 · Oct 14, 2015

2daBank said:
good stuff, i thought when they drafted him he could develop into a good qb but obviously that didnt happen right away. i really think the defense gonna do a number on dalton so i was mostly concerned with ej making mistakes that give ginger opportunities to stay in game. id love for williams to return, the way my dfs lineups appear to be shaping up i could really use him in that price slot so ill be checking closely on that.. i heard some comments by rex that implied watkins was really close last week and sounded as if he would be a go in this game. not sure if anything has changed with him or not?

really think this game sets up well for bills, ive been on cincy basically every game until passing last week cause i thought they finally had them lined correctly. laying 3.5 at buffalo is getting steep imo, wernt the pats less than a fg fav when they visited buffalo? as high as i been on cincy im not ready to say they should be laying bigger road numbers than the freaking pats! dalton been great and it no fluke but it really hard to believe he doesnt have a old andy game or 2 in him, cant think of a better venue or defense to bring it out..

NE was -1 for most of the week, but BUF was highly though of after beating an IND team that people thought was good. I wish I had grabbed CIN pk, but i can't see too many people playing EJ for good reason

bones · Oct 14, 2015

Thoughts on Chargers/GB? Line up to -10.5.

GB has faced Foles/Rams, A Smith/Chiefs & R Wilson/SHawks @ home and won by 14, 10 & 10 and Kap/SF & Cutler/Bears on road and won by 14 & 9

I guess line for SD is about correct...but why am I thinking SD covers? Will study, but @ 10.5 I'm interested in SD...altho they got beat badly by Vikes, I see them keeping it closer.

bones · Oct 14, 2015

Pats L Tackle Solder Out ...important

twinkie13 · Oct 15, 2015

any Chiefs fans here?

Lareux · Oct 15, 2015

Sticky_Socks said:
I will continue betting every pats over and every Denver under. I smell 40 points for NE this week vs a sloppy looking Indi team. With or without Luck.

ATL looks great.

I love TEN vs Miami after everything that organization just went through they don't come out swinging with a new coach.

If Jeffery and Royals comes back CHI +3 at home may be a play vs a struggling DET.

The game is in Detroit. Still may like Chicago with Detroit in a seeming tailspin, but it is in Detroit.

:shake:

Lareux · Oct 15, 2015

Lexington 125 said:
He definitely looked better the last preseason game 7 of 8 120 2tds. Stepped up and threw a perfect strike to Clay for a long td. Keep in mind he never had Clay in the mix and Sammy's return will open up the whole field of play. The general consensus was that he had a strong preseason but ultimately Tyrod's athleticism won him the starting job. There were fans calling for EJ during the game Sunday, and even after Tyrod put the team on his back and won. EJ meshes well with Woods so I could see him getting way more targets. Karlos Williams returning would be huge, he is a better runner than Rawls (who shredded Cincy for most of the game last week) but his status is still uncertain. Biggest ? is Watkins for me.

Sooooo....you're one of the guys calling into WGR talking about how good EJ is huh? Cover blown Lex.

At least you weren't one of the guys calling in comparing Tyrod Taylor to Jim Kelly and saying he was on his was to the HOF after 2 games....hahahahaha.

Until he proves it in a regular season game, he's the same old EJ...not a starting QB in the NFL, that is. Seems doubtful Karlos comes back this week (he's still in the concussion protocol), and wtf is going on with Watkins? Has to be more than just a simple calf strain....

Zeke · Oct 15, 2015

bones said:
Pats L Tackle Solder Out ...important

He wasn't having a great season anyways. The O-line as a whole was getting torched first half last week. That's not to say his backup is going to be better but this shouldn't be a huge issue.

Tito · Oct 15, 2015

couple bad trends against Falcons tonight...

- Early season away favs (before wk 6) off an OT game are 4-18 ATS

- Teams on a short week and off OT are 4-20 ATS

Lexington 125 · Oct 15, 2015

Lareux said:
Sooooo....you're one of the guys calling into WGR talking about how good EJ is huh? Cover blown Lex. At least you weren't one of the guys calling in comparing Tyrod Taylor to Jim Kelly and saying he was on his was to the HOF after 2 games....hahahahaha.

Until he proves it in a regular season game, he's the same old EJ...not a starting QB in the NFL, that is. Seems doubtful Karlos comes back this week (he's still in the concussion protocol), and wtf is going on with Watkins? Has to be more than just a simple calf strain....

Haha. No Tyrod is the guy but i do think ej will look better than last season simply because he will have better weapons. I was hopeful about karlos but that doesn't look good at all. I think Watkins injury was much more severe than originally reported.

nbafan88 · Oct 16, 2015

I really do not understand how the Ravens are favored in SF. The 49ers looked like a different team at the Giants last week. Kap looked like he finally started to figure things out and played with confidence. The Ravens lost another game by giving up a lead. The defense is in shambles and Flacco is the worst 4th quarter qb in the league.

Im not overthinking the pats. Belichick owns Luck. Indy might have a better shot of catching the pats a little off guard and sit Luck so he doesn't get clobbered time and time again. Brady is gonna go wild and there is nothing the colts can do about it. Alternate line -20.5 maybe. The best part is if the pats are up big you know they won't get complacent and they will run up the score.

GWarner27 · Oct 17, 2015

Tito said:
couple bad trends against Falcons tonight...

- Early season away favs (before wk 6) off an OT game are 4-18 ATS

- Teams on a short week and off OT are 4-20 ATS

great post, hope you hit it Tito

Lareux said:
The game is in Detroit. Still may like Chicago with Detroit in a seeming tailspin, but it is in Detroit.

:shake:

kind of important :shake:

bones said:
Thoughts on Chargers/GB? Line up to -10.5.

GB has faced Foles/Rams, A Smith/Chiefs & R Wilson/SHawks @ home and won by 14, 10 & 10 and Kap/SF & Cutler/Bears on road and won by 14 & 9

I guess line for SD is about correct...but why am I thinking SD covers? Will study, but @ 10.5 I'm interested in SD...altho they got beat badly by Vikes, I see them keeping it closer.

SD with that OL held together by paperclips and spit does not sound so good when they're going to be behind, Rivers can't run and GB will be pinning its ears back

nbafan88 said:
I really do not understand how the Ravens are favored in SF. The 49ers looked like a different team at the Giants last week. Kap looked like he finally started to figure things out and played with confidence. The Ravens lost another game by giving up a lead. The defense is in shambles and Flacco is the worst 4th quarter qb in the league.

Im not overthinking the pats. Belichick owns Luck. Indy might have a better shot of catching the pats a little off guard and sit Luck so he doesn't get clobbered time and time again. Brady is gonna go wild and there is nothing the colts can do about it. Alternate line -20.5 maybe. The best part is if the pats are up big you know they won't get complacent and they will run up the score.

SF creeping down towards pick 'em, but i agree that is my favorite bet of the week and i'm nervous that BAL really shouldn't be favored here and they're sucking us in. I won't let that get me off it because BAL's pass defense can't stop anybody and I liked what I saw out of Kap against a similar no pass rush/bad secondary situation last week at MetLife. Also have no idea what BAL will do on the ground if Forsett is out as I didn't consider him trustworthy and now they are going to a rookie

Agree NE wins big, but they aren't going to use any of their playoff plays here or anything like that to win by 40

Hakan's Picks · Oct 17, 2015

Andy Reid "airing it out" with Alex Smith?! He's got a water-gun arm. Chiefs have no TD's to WR's for a reason. They can't spread the field with Smith. It's all dink and donk. He ain't no McNabb! Just sayin'!

XhuegoX · Oct 17, 2015

pinnacle offering San Diego team total at 20 -106. I really like the over. Gates is a TD machine. Rivers loves going against the top QBs, always seems to play well. Think they hit the over easily. Just have to wait until 5Dimes releases their TT lines in a few hours.

GB's defense has been playing well, but as mentioned by others in this thread, they have faced some awful QBs.

Rivers is a gamer. Ya his oline is trash, but hasn't it been trash for the past few seasons? 10 points a half is very doable.

nbafan88 · Oct 18, 2015

hahaha someone allegedly pulled the fire alarm at the panthers team hotel at 5:45 this morning :rofl:

stay classy seattle

nbafan88 · Oct 18, 2015

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