Week 6 Looking Back :
For me personally a solid week in the NFL but realy hurt myself with some tough losses. The Houston game ending on a failed 2 pt conversion really was a painful kick in the balls . Since I tend to play alot of games in small invrements usually rely on parlays or reverses to build a strong day in football . Well Houston busted 2 parlays and 2 reverses then later had a 2nd H reverse busted when Sea scored that TD late . If NE scored a TD there I was gonna call it quits .
Anyway this is one week I had honestly no suprises . Dont get me wrong I lost some plays especially sloppy on totals as I tend to not research them enough and have a sneaky feeling that I tend to lose because my mind selects games it wants to see win in a sort ofopposite outcome then expected .
So what did I see so far ?
- I made a mistake on the Saints game. As I soon as the line came out this week I played New Orleans and bought it under a TD but as the week progressed I saw the weird movement and got scared and middle out of it needing a 7 pt Saints win . Of course didnt happen . Reason I liked NO was because I loved how the defense played this Monday but guess losing the young CB again my mind was looking for a reason to get out of it . Basically the Saints are a very solid team on both sides of the ball and its kinda hard to believe knowing how many injuries have plagued them on both sides of the ball . There questionable running the ball but Deuce could change that and having Reggie Bush a RB things could be much worse . Brees is excellent and as long as he has time he is insanely accurate . Lance Moore has arrived and Shockey will soon return . The one issue was FG kicking and they resigned Melhalff . CHalk it up to nervous missing an easy FG then kicking the ball out of bounds as he seemed to settle down after that . Oakland is just a mess plain and simple. I understand its indoors but enought 57 and 59 yd FG attempts from them . I can see 54 maybe 55 but past that just punt damn the ball . There offense relies on running the ball and NO shutdown AP on Monday so its no suprise with Russell's issues how bad the offense looked . Walker has not shown anything and the playmakers are Fargas and McFadden who is less then 100% and probably Higgins in the kick game . Its that bad . The defense is inconsitent and looked terrible today . Not sure what to make of OAK at this point with the new coach and all . Truth is they are basically a bad team with some top draft picks in the mix. Next week they host the Jets and it could be a good opponent for them as NYJ still lacks explosion as they had less then 300 yds of offense today . If Oak can play at Buffalo there is no reason why they cant hang with the Jets at home . Looking for a low scoiring game and real interested in OAK probably catching +3.5 . 1st home game new coach and the type of offense they can hold down IMO .
Cincy @ NYJ :
With Fitzpatrick in the type game I expected although once I saw 10 today I was baited into a Cincy play . Sad part is I saw the injury news come out and could have had NYJ @ -6.5 -130 or -7 -120 but said to myself just wait . The Jets defense was near perfect minus the drive before halftime and as regulation expired . Those are self explatanory and Cincy converted a 4th and 2 before alf when they scored a TD . I like how the Cincy defense has played as mentioned earlier they allowed less then 300 yards and also had fumble for a TD early . If we look at NYJ scoring drives it hard not to snicker .
10plays 47 yds TD
5plays 14 yds FG
3plays 24 yds TD
4plays 0yds FG
10plays 41yds TD
They also had 3 turnovers all costly . The 1st the fumble on the opening possession that resulted in CIncy scoring a TD . The othetr two 2nd H INTs on plays which started at the Cincy 30 yd line . Considering the situation facing a winless team with its backup QB a significant downgrade from Palmer kinda a bad showing by NYJ IMO. They old field position battle really decided it with CIncy starting backed up inside there 20 often and well NYJ with seemingly favorable field position all day long . Now NYJ goes cross country and think they could struggle @ Oakland looking at how they have played @ Miami and @ SD with the offense only having the Zona showing to impress. Cincy will host Pitt and w/o knowing about Palmer why comment . Obviously he plays and they are a nice sized home dog they will draw my interest because there defense has been a huge suprise .
bears @ Atlanta - paid some ghastly prices to get +3.5 here and while it wouldnt have mattered in a sense I was correct thinking it may come down to a last second FG . Just happened to be ATL kicking it . Lost the over 43 by 1 point and there was a quite a few pts left off the board . From frequent settling to FG to a Roddy WHite TD being called back and Elam missing a 33yder late Not to mention ATLs goal stand at the 1 yd line (Bears held ATL to a punt and then got a FG ) .
Anyway think ATL had a chance to get pts in 7 of the 9 possessions missing a FG and having just 2 punts and only 1 three and out all day. There defense is very average but to there credit plays hard and makes its opponents work . Matt Ryan the kid has suprised me by being so ready so quick . Bottomline is the ATL offense can move the ball and if you look at there games minus the 1st H @ TB and maybe 2nd H @ Carloina they have done so all year versus some quality defenses including todays . I dont think there is much negative to look ar for CHI as ATL is a team on the rise and wins on the road are not easy when there is not much seperation bewteen the teams. Bears defense is not stout vs the pass and that is something to look at in the future . Vasher has been out , Lloyd was a late scratch today and Charles Tillman was hurt today as well. They have a home game with Minny on deck . real hard to not like them as they are going to keep the Minny ground game in check and ask the passing game to beat them . Which was solid today but it was home vs Det . Off two entirely too tough wins now Minny is so ripe for a loss as one could argue reasonably they should have lost both games @ NO and vs Det today . I know the spread may look off but think this is a bad spot for them and just remember the Special teams vs Reggie Bush and insert Devin Hester .
Miami @ Houston : Just a wow game . Was one of the 3 fav plays of the daywit SD and TB . So imagine how great by day would have been had they won ! Oh I mean cover -2.5 ! Just a sloppy effort on both sides of the ball. I beat just watching the games on sportslne that Schaub just eyeballs Andre Johnson and CBs can read that easily . Houston won but they should have dominanted this game . Schaub starts off by moving his team into Miami territory both early drives and ends with INTs on passes to AJ around the Phins 40. On the 2nd of course Miami winds up hitting a 53 yd pass play for a TD to Patrick Cobb ! That was Miami Miami 1st Q the big pass play for a TD and 2 three and outs . Then Houston takes it just inside the Miami 40 and stalls having to punt . What happens in a 7-3 game which I forget to say they stalled inside the Miami 10 settling for 3pts to end the 1st Q ?? Cobbs gets an 80 yd TD pass ! Are you kidding ? That was basically all they did on offense the entire 1st H and they had 14 pts and 14-13 lead. After that TD the Texans had a nice kick return and great starting field position again stalled inside teh red zone and settled for 3 pts . They even had a kick return for a TD in teh 1st H .
The 2nd H starts they get a punt and boom right down the field and a TD for the lead ! Feeling good . However they allow Miami to wrk it down the field and answer with there own TD ! So 21-20 game Texans ball mid 3rd quarter down by 1 . They move the ball again and once again a fuck up . This time take inside the 10 yd line of Miami on a 60something yd drive only to watch Andre Johnson fumble. Same score mid 4th Q and Houston on the move game but again stall near the red zone and settle for a FG . They had the game sealed up when they picked Pennington off and had the ball inside the Miami 20 with about 3 to play except they funbled it back to Miami . Something that has now happened to ME twice in 2 weeks on big plays (Denver last week) . Of course just like last week the road teams scores a crushing TD after being stopped . This time with Houston trailing they needed to score and did with 3 seconds left . AllI need is the 2 pt conversion and Slaton is stopped ! I have been on the wrong siode of so many of these lately its killing me . Now doubt Texans can move the ball but I cant recall a team leaving more points off the board in a month then they have starting with the Titan game . So while giving up 28 pts the Texans defense played real well somehow it allowed CObb 2 long TDs and the muffed INT was a real crushing blow. Miami pass defense on the road is kinda weak IMO . While Miami has looked much improved past few weeks hard to not look at Baltimore next week catching a FG (I always buy off 3 so +3.5 for m e) . Ravens off an embarrasment get a offense that is going to have trouble making plays IMO . While Balt offense gets one of its weakest defenses . Now in fairness the COlts offense took away the good matchp for Balt offense today by getting up early and getting it 2 TDs quickly . So like Balt next week . Houston will be at home but laying nearly -10 pts ? Just cant see it DET may gets it first win if Kitna plays but the texans are just to sloppy to lay so much . If DET hadnt fallen to pieces this game would be Houston -3. So +9 or +10 for me at the moment ....
Balt @ Indy - Colts were just to much today . Cant discount the fact that Indy was 0-2 at home in its new building and even lost the preseason finale there . So they had yet to put a game together in there new house . In a sense BALT relying on ist defense was a good opponent . Balt came in thinking it would do to Indy what they had down to other opponents and the real MArvin Harrison showed today and really opened up the passing game . Balt had some sloppy plays but at times moved the ball .....great matchup @ GB next week for the Colts .....hard to not like GB though @ PK and the over with banged up defenses ....dont see GB losing 3 straight at home and well we saw how hard a win was @ Houston and GB wont make those mistakes .....also Addai hurt early never returned and could be missing ..What I was tring to say earlier was Indy dcoring quickly and building an early 14-0 lead puts pressure on Flacco to make things happen and he is still a game manager at this point . When he tries to make things happen or needs to make things happen usually mistakes happen. So always of interest when looking at who Balt plays cause we need to see if the can control the game with there defense and take the pressure of Flacco....
Det @ Minny - Think we got what was expected here . Although I almost played Minny -13 I had a wait and see approach . Originally in my PKem pool had grabbed +13 with DET but expected it to rise once Kitna was out and didnt understand why it really didnt get bet higher . So had the under but small only another gaffe on my part .
Anyway Minnys defense did what was expected and so did Minnys offense but was sloppy . FUmbled inside the 10 and 40 yd lines and missed a easy FG . Which explains a 2 pt game and 2 to1 yardage margin . I think Minny may be ripe for a loss now. Just consecutive sloppy efforts that were grueling games . So if Kitna returns then Det has my interest and looking to fade the Vikes on the real stuff @ Chicago ...aka grass .....
Minny ran okay but no big plays , they sucked on 3rd down going 3-15 and while they had 6 sacks they allowed 5 as well to add onto the sloppy play .
car @ TB - Like SD the Bucs got off on the right foot with a quick score except there was on defense . Thought the line should have been -3 here and was on TB strong . Just expected a repeat of the game @ Minny . To me teams are similiar . They may be different in alot of ways but TB and Minny both teams with good defenses who rely on vet QBs to not make mistakes and run the ball well . Anyway wish they were all so easy ......Big game for TB defense really here ....blocked punt for a TD , holding Carolina out of the end zone for the 20yd FG and then an INT late before half with Carolina driving . Also the 4th Q even when the game was basically done they had an int and 2 TODs ....
Really exactly what I expect from these teams in the given situation Car away and TB at home. Bus play good defense and make a few plays coupled with good field position tens to lead to success . While Carolina just comes up short trying to make things happen on the road . SOlid passing game byut the RBs always seem to struggle .......With Carolina hosting the Saints hard for me to not be interested in NO here above a FG and Bucs get Seattle who without Hasselbackhave little chance of winning and with him have a slight chance of winning . DOubt we see TB under a TD but Hawks offense will struggle but Bucs not the offense to lay big points with ....so lets see.......
STL @ WASH - Again no suprise as WASH is not the team to be laying nearly 3 TDS . They survived on execution and guess what ? Today they didnt execute . Funny how the wheels came off for a team w/o a turnover . Thats all it did was fumble ball today .....including one STL took to the end zone before half ....I am suprised they on SU but the effort was there today .New coach and new beginning . Still STL has issues on defense and in the secondary . Like how Avery is enrging as well. The real key to them is Josh Brown has been the best kicker in theleague this year . He not only hit an early 51 yder he won the game on a 49yder and its not a dome folks . ANyway Skins had 3 1st H fumbes allinside the RAMS 35 huge swings in the game ! Rams offense still a work in progress they had good field position and needed 12 plays just to get a FG and 50 yds of offense . really what was the best part of the day was in the last 4 minutes getting into FG position . Next week they have Dallas and while Dallas is a fucking sloppy team it could really be a long day for STL because the deep ball is gonna kill them and just look at there corners . I thought DAL defense again played a very good game . I dont like they seem to play on there heels they let to many players come to then and miss tackles rather then pursue well . Still at the moment -10 away with Dallas not for me .....Skins get the week off ....think Rams had 200yds of offense and 1 play of more then 20 yards but just 2 sacks !
Dallas @ Zona - had patience and waited till half before DAL sucked me in . I am biased in a sense because coming in I thought Arizona was so overrated . Watching them today I know they are overrated . This team did nothing in the 1st h on offense and nothing is being nice . In the 2nd H they made some plays but the Hightower play was huge . He caught a deflected ball on 3rd down and converted the 1st down by inches . Thats when you know ARIZONA is gonna cover the spread . Fitzgerald also used his height on a jump ball . For the most part I thought DAL made them look like a joke . Edge James is Jamal Lewis as I said a few weeks back. Just a back living off the past who is 3 or 4 yds every touch and nothing more . Kurt Warner made a nice throw on occassion but the offense thrived on momentum and some key plays . Thats why ARIZONA is a bad road team IMO . They need a spark to make a play and prolific offenses dont need a spark . Just embarrassing game by DAL again . The snap that hits Romo in the chest , the almost fumble for a TD which I am not sure what was the right call saw it briefly but no suprise DAL given a 2nd life score a TD . They are the Yankees of the NFL no doubt in every way . They should have the best offense in the history of the NFL and its always something . Felix Jones is a stud , Marion Barber is a beast , WItten is a top TE , TO is a HOF , Miles Austin has impressed the hell out of me with another great TD catch and even Crayton although inconsistent we saw what he can do ....Romo is a goofball . He just is . Tons of athleticism and he just tries to make things happen when he is pressured and 1 time its a TD , 1 time its incomplete and seems like the other 2 times its a TO. Dallas is gonna be a what IF team all year I can see . Week to Week no adjustments or improvement . Cards defense was solid and did pressure Romo alot but thats on the DAL OL and playcalling IMO . I will fade Zona on the road and when the price is right play them at home. They are better at home but I dont believe the BS about there home field edge . They did shit on offense today and if Dallas played with the crispness of the Giants we would have seen a 20 pt margin. The great Card offense ? 276 yds NET offense today at home vs a supposedly weak secondary . Dal 12 penalties , 4fumbles only 1 lost , missed FG , opening kick for a TD and lose on a block punt for a TD when everything aligned for a win. Truth is at most the Cowboys should have been was -4 here and like everyother inflated line it lost ....Zona 19plays 51 yds entire 1st H !!!!! There success came from extending drives but Hightower doesnt get the 1st and DAL probably runs away with the game .
11p60yds
8plays 89yd (big play to Fitz 39yds)
9plsy 43yds FG
Zona is off and in there defense the offense without Boldin is not the same either .
GB@ Seattle - really nothing to say here . SEA one could expect the defense to play better after last week but they have no offense . Branch out again and was Hasselback and Wallace leaving Charlie Frye to start . Is it suprise looking at Koren RObinson and Frye and that the had 177 Net yds ?? GB did enough today and thats about all. Rodgers holding up well and theygot a tad healthier . Looking at GB and over next week .....SEA they are done and just another playoff team gone bad ....travel all the way to TB and thats not a good spot but what is the line >????
Philly @ SF - Now SF is even worse . I faded them because I knew they were nt very good and knew Eagles needed a win . Also Eagles played well @ Chicago and were favored by -3 but lost barely w/o Westbrook . Big step down in compettion and if NE who is like Philly's little brother in terms of comparing teams could win easily then Philly should as well .They wer ewinning easy till they couldnt punch in a 3rd and 1 to make it 21-6 . Till at 17-6 they allowed a long 50 something yd kick to Nedney and when lining up for a long FG saw it blocked and a blowout was 17-16 at half . Then of course SF started the 2nd H with a TD and oh shit theEagles were losing .I know it looks like the final score is BS with all the tack on points but Philly settled for so many FGS instead of TD all game as well . Akers had 4 FGS and missed another long one .A 19yder in the 2 quarter and then 38 , 25 and 28 in the 4th Q so thats really 4 red zone chances that ended in 3 instead of 7 ! Plus an INT in the red zone by McNabb . Take away the two 75 yd drives to start the 3rd Q after the momentum swung they had 90 yds of offense the entire game outside of that ....Philly should have won by DD rather easily but made it look hard and allowed SF to hang on .....Eagles get abreak and SF gets to play @ NYG at 1 PM so interested to see how Monday turns out . SF can do some things but they have a medicore defense and weak secondary with no playmakers in the passing game outside Bruce although Vernon Davis showed up today ....
Jax @ Denver - I had Denver game and then again at half . Cant figure this team out . They screwed ,me with the backdoor PUSH last week and cover ...Today they again have made turnovers that kill drives . Jax just moved the ball at will from that turnover in a 7-3 game and never looked back . Denver scores on the openng drives then fumble and int near midfield next 2 possessions . Which they follow up with fumble inside the 10 yd line of Jax and then a TOD inside the 30yd of line of JAx.Pittman was good running the ballbut seemed like they only targeted Narshall today in the passing game which they were minus Scheffler . Now Den plays @ NE which is a bad matchup for NE. Pats secondary is clearly theer weakness not the front 7 as LT did nothing until a few late runs after some momentum swings . However you can throw on NE and well DEN does that well . DEN though cant stop anyone IMO and interested to see how NE responds . Remember huge game for SD here and NE was w/o some key players . NE needs healthy rbs vs good teams to win . Its simple blitz Cassell and shadow Moss who scares uyou on NE now ? Also taylor was injurd here and Drew steeped up finally ....
NE @ SD - The last of my big plays was SD . Now the Chargers probably looked high . Think about though what was NYJ @ SD ? -9 What was NE @ NYJ PK ? So wouldnt -6 make alot of sense ? Anyway banged up NE squad vs a team desperate for a win playing a fucked up schedule . I mean @ Miami go home then @ Buffalo then @ London ?? SD wanted payback line was accurate the betting world didnt think so and drove it down hel I had this game at -4 , -5,5 and -6 ....once it got steamed in the afternoon I knew I was on the right side .....SD always tough at home and to there credit made some nic epass plays but again they played with the lead and had some good field position ....NE is going to be a middle of the pack team and cant improve to there RBs get healthy . Big key was I looked at the playoff game and Brady gone but Moss had 1 catch and Maroney had 120 yds . Maroney was out here and with Brady out even easier to take Moss out of the pass game ...so SD and UND was big for me .....teams are clearly starting to show 2 different personalties home and away now .....
Your thoughts ?? Really pretty basic for me cause really no suprises ATS . Rams win SU semi suprise .
For me personally a solid week in the NFL but realy hurt myself with some tough losses. The Houston game ending on a failed 2 pt conversion really was a painful kick in the balls . Since I tend to play alot of games in small invrements usually rely on parlays or reverses to build a strong day in football . Well Houston busted 2 parlays and 2 reverses then later had a 2nd H reverse busted when Sea scored that TD late . If NE scored a TD there I was gonna call it quits .
Anyway this is one week I had honestly no suprises . Dont get me wrong I lost some plays especially sloppy on totals as I tend to not research them enough and have a sneaky feeling that I tend to lose because my mind selects games it wants to see win in a sort ofopposite outcome then expected .
So what did I see so far ?
- I made a mistake on the Saints game. As I soon as the line came out this week I played New Orleans and bought it under a TD but as the week progressed I saw the weird movement and got scared and middle out of it needing a 7 pt Saints win . Of course didnt happen . Reason I liked NO was because I loved how the defense played this Monday but guess losing the young CB again my mind was looking for a reason to get out of it . Basically the Saints are a very solid team on both sides of the ball and its kinda hard to believe knowing how many injuries have plagued them on both sides of the ball . There questionable running the ball but Deuce could change that and having Reggie Bush a RB things could be much worse . Brees is excellent and as long as he has time he is insanely accurate . Lance Moore has arrived and Shockey will soon return . The one issue was FG kicking and they resigned Melhalff . CHalk it up to nervous missing an easy FG then kicking the ball out of bounds as he seemed to settle down after that . Oakland is just a mess plain and simple. I understand its indoors but enought 57 and 59 yd FG attempts from them . I can see 54 maybe 55 but past that just punt damn the ball . There offense relies on running the ball and NO shutdown AP on Monday so its no suprise with Russell's issues how bad the offense looked . Walker has not shown anything and the playmakers are Fargas and McFadden who is less then 100% and probably Higgins in the kick game . Its that bad . The defense is inconsitent and looked terrible today . Not sure what to make of OAK at this point with the new coach and all . Truth is they are basically a bad team with some top draft picks in the mix. Next week they host the Jets and it could be a good opponent for them as NYJ still lacks explosion as they had less then 300 yds of offense today . If Oak can play at Buffalo there is no reason why they cant hang with the Jets at home . Looking for a low scoiring game and real interested in OAK probably catching +3.5 . 1st home game new coach and the type of offense they can hold down IMO .
Cincy @ NYJ :
With Fitzpatrick in the type game I expected although once I saw 10 today I was baited into a Cincy play . Sad part is I saw the injury news come out and could have had NYJ @ -6.5 -130 or -7 -120 but said to myself just wait . The Jets defense was near perfect minus the drive before halftime and as regulation expired . Those are self explatanory and Cincy converted a 4th and 2 before alf when they scored a TD . I like how the Cincy defense has played as mentioned earlier they allowed less then 300 yards and also had fumble for a TD early . If we look at NYJ scoring drives it hard not to snicker .
10plays 47 yds TD
5plays 14 yds FG
3plays 24 yds TD
4plays 0yds FG
10plays 41yds TD
They also had 3 turnovers all costly . The 1st the fumble on the opening possession that resulted in CIncy scoring a TD . The othetr two 2nd H INTs on plays which started at the Cincy 30 yd line . Considering the situation facing a winless team with its backup QB a significant downgrade from Palmer kinda a bad showing by NYJ IMO. They old field position battle really decided it with CIncy starting backed up inside there 20 often and well NYJ with seemingly favorable field position all day long . Now NYJ goes cross country and think they could struggle @ Oakland looking at how they have played @ Miami and @ SD with the offense only having the Zona showing to impress. Cincy will host Pitt and w/o knowing about Palmer why comment . Obviously he plays and they are a nice sized home dog they will draw my interest because there defense has been a huge suprise .
bears @ Atlanta - paid some ghastly prices to get +3.5 here and while it wouldnt have mattered in a sense I was correct thinking it may come down to a last second FG . Just happened to be ATL kicking it . Lost the over 43 by 1 point and there was a quite a few pts left off the board . From frequent settling to FG to a Roddy WHite TD being called back and Elam missing a 33yder late Not to mention ATLs goal stand at the 1 yd line (Bears held ATL to a punt and then got a FG ) .
Anyway think ATL had a chance to get pts in 7 of the 9 possessions missing a FG and having just 2 punts and only 1 three and out all day. There defense is very average but to there credit plays hard and makes its opponents work . Matt Ryan the kid has suprised me by being so ready so quick . Bottomline is the ATL offense can move the ball and if you look at there games minus the 1st H @ TB and maybe 2nd H @ Carloina they have done so all year versus some quality defenses including todays . I dont think there is much negative to look ar for CHI as ATL is a team on the rise and wins on the road are not easy when there is not much seperation bewteen the teams. Bears defense is not stout vs the pass and that is something to look at in the future . Vasher has been out , Lloyd was a late scratch today and Charles Tillman was hurt today as well. They have a home game with Minny on deck . real hard to not like them as they are going to keep the Minny ground game in check and ask the passing game to beat them . Which was solid today but it was home vs Det . Off two entirely too tough wins now Minny is so ripe for a loss as one could argue reasonably they should have lost both games @ NO and vs Det today . I know the spread may look off but think this is a bad spot for them and just remember the Special teams vs Reggie Bush and insert Devin Hester .
Miami @ Houston : Just a wow game . Was one of the 3 fav plays of the daywit SD and TB . So imagine how great by day would have been had they won ! Oh I mean cover -2.5 ! Just a sloppy effort on both sides of the ball. I beat just watching the games on sportslne that Schaub just eyeballs Andre Johnson and CBs can read that easily . Houston won but they should have dominanted this game . Schaub starts off by moving his team into Miami territory both early drives and ends with INTs on passes to AJ around the Phins 40. On the 2nd of course Miami winds up hitting a 53 yd pass play for a TD to Patrick Cobb ! That was Miami Miami 1st Q the big pass play for a TD and 2 three and outs . Then Houston takes it just inside the Miami 40 and stalls having to punt . What happens in a 7-3 game which I forget to say they stalled inside the Miami 10 settling for 3pts to end the 1st Q ?? Cobbs gets an 80 yd TD pass ! Are you kidding ? That was basically all they did on offense the entire 1st H and they had 14 pts and 14-13 lead. After that TD the Texans had a nice kick return and great starting field position again stalled inside teh red zone and settled for 3 pts . They even had a kick return for a TD in teh 1st H .
The 2nd H starts they get a punt and boom right down the field and a TD for the lead ! Feeling good . However they allow Miami to wrk it down the field and answer with there own TD ! So 21-20 game Texans ball mid 3rd quarter down by 1 . They move the ball again and once again a fuck up . This time take inside the 10 yd line of Miami on a 60something yd drive only to watch Andre Johnson fumble. Same score mid 4th Q and Houston on the move game but again stall near the red zone and settle for a FG . They had the game sealed up when they picked Pennington off and had the ball inside the Miami 20 with about 3 to play except they funbled it back to Miami . Something that has now happened to ME twice in 2 weeks on big plays (Denver last week) . Of course just like last week the road teams scores a crushing TD after being stopped . This time with Houston trailing they needed to score and did with 3 seconds left . AllI need is the 2 pt conversion and Slaton is stopped ! I have been on the wrong siode of so many of these lately its killing me . Now doubt Texans can move the ball but I cant recall a team leaving more points off the board in a month then they have starting with the Titan game . So while giving up 28 pts the Texans defense played real well somehow it allowed CObb 2 long TDs and the muffed INT was a real crushing blow. Miami pass defense on the road is kinda weak IMO . While Miami has looked much improved past few weeks hard to not look at Baltimore next week catching a FG (I always buy off 3 so +3.5 for m e) . Ravens off an embarrasment get a offense that is going to have trouble making plays IMO . While Balt offense gets one of its weakest defenses . Now in fairness the COlts offense took away the good matchp for Balt offense today by getting up early and getting it 2 TDs quickly . So like Balt next week . Houston will be at home but laying nearly -10 pts ? Just cant see it DET may gets it first win if Kitna plays but the texans are just to sloppy to lay so much . If DET hadnt fallen to pieces this game would be Houston -3. So +9 or +10 for me at the moment ....
Balt @ Indy - Colts were just to much today . Cant discount the fact that Indy was 0-2 at home in its new building and even lost the preseason finale there . So they had yet to put a game together in there new house . In a sense BALT relying on ist defense was a good opponent . Balt came in thinking it would do to Indy what they had down to other opponents and the real MArvin Harrison showed today and really opened up the passing game . Balt had some sloppy plays but at times moved the ball .....great matchup @ GB next week for the Colts .....hard to not like GB though @ PK and the over with banged up defenses ....dont see GB losing 3 straight at home and well we saw how hard a win was @ Houston and GB wont make those mistakes .....also Addai hurt early never returned and could be missing ..What I was tring to say earlier was Indy dcoring quickly and building an early 14-0 lead puts pressure on Flacco to make things happen and he is still a game manager at this point . When he tries to make things happen or needs to make things happen usually mistakes happen. So always of interest when looking at who Balt plays cause we need to see if the can control the game with there defense and take the pressure of Flacco....
Det @ Minny - Think we got what was expected here . Although I almost played Minny -13 I had a wait and see approach . Originally in my PKem pool had grabbed +13 with DET but expected it to rise once Kitna was out and didnt understand why it really didnt get bet higher . So had the under but small only another gaffe on my part .
Anyway Minnys defense did what was expected and so did Minnys offense but was sloppy . FUmbled inside the 10 and 40 yd lines and missed a easy FG . Which explains a 2 pt game and 2 to1 yardage margin . I think Minny may be ripe for a loss now. Just consecutive sloppy efforts that were grueling games . So if Kitna returns then Det has my interest and looking to fade the Vikes on the real stuff @ Chicago ...aka grass .....
Minny ran okay but no big plays , they sucked on 3rd down going 3-15 and while they had 6 sacks they allowed 5 as well to add onto the sloppy play .
car @ TB - Like SD the Bucs got off on the right foot with a quick score except there was on defense . Thought the line should have been -3 here and was on TB strong . Just expected a repeat of the game @ Minny . To me teams are similiar . They may be different in alot of ways but TB and Minny both teams with good defenses who rely on vet QBs to not make mistakes and run the ball well . Anyway wish they were all so easy ......Big game for TB defense really here ....blocked punt for a TD , holding Carolina out of the end zone for the 20yd FG and then an INT late before half with Carolina driving . Also the 4th Q even when the game was basically done they had an int and 2 TODs ....
Really exactly what I expect from these teams in the given situation Car away and TB at home. Bus play good defense and make a few plays coupled with good field position tens to lead to success . While Carolina just comes up short trying to make things happen on the road . SOlid passing game byut the RBs always seem to struggle .......With Carolina hosting the Saints hard for me to not be interested in NO here above a FG and Bucs get Seattle who without Hasselbackhave little chance of winning and with him have a slight chance of winning . DOubt we see TB under a TD but Hawks offense will struggle but Bucs not the offense to lay big points with ....so lets see.......
STL @ WASH - Again no suprise as WASH is not the team to be laying nearly 3 TDS . They survived on execution and guess what ? Today they didnt execute . Funny how the wheels came off for a team w/o a turnover . Thats all it did was fumble ball today .....including one STL took to the end zone before half ....I am suprised they on SU but the effort was there today .New coach and new beginning . Still STL has issues on defense and in the secondary . Like how Avery is enrging as well. The real key to them is Josh Brown has been the best kicker in theleague this year . He not only hit an early 51 yder he won the game on a 49yder and its not a dome folks . ANyway Skins had 3 1st H fumbes allinside the RAMS 35 huge swings in the game ! Rams offense still a work in progress they had good field position and needed 12 plays just to get a FG and 50 yds of offense . really what was the best part of the day was in the last 4 minutes getting into FG position . Next week they have Dallas and while Dallas is a fucking sloppy team it could really be a long day for STL because the deep ball is gonna kill them and just look at there corners . I thought DAL defense again played a very good game . I dont like they seem to play on there heels they let to many players come to then and miss tackles rather then pursue well . Still at the moment -10 away with Dallas not for me .....Skins get the week off ....think Rams had 200yds of offense and 1 play of more then 20 yards but just 2 sacks !
Dallas @ Zona - had patience and waited till half before DAL sucked me in . I am biased in a sense because coming in I thought Arizona was so overrated . Watching them today I know they are overrated . This team did nothing in the 1st h on offense and nothing is being nice . In the 2nd H they made some plays but the Hightower play was huge . He caught a deflected ball on 3rd down and converted the 1st down by inches . Thats when you know ARIZONA is gonna cover the spread . Fitzgerald also used his height on a jump ball . For the most part I thought DAL made them look like a joke . Edge James is Jamal Lewis as I said a few weeks back. Just a back living off the past who is 3 or 4 yds every touch and nothing more . Kurt Warner made a nice throw on occassion but the offense thrived on momentum and some key plays . Thats why ARIZONA is a bad road team IMO . They need a spark to make a play and prolific offenses dont need a spark . Just embarrassing game by DAL again . The snap that hits Romo in the chest , the almost fumble for a TD which I am not sure what was the right call saw it briefly but no suprise DAL given a 2nd life score a TD . They are the Yankees of the NFL no doubt in every way . They should have the best offense in the history of the NFL and its always something . Felix Jones is a stud , Marion Barber is a beast , WItten is a top TE , TO is a HOF , Miles Austin has impressed the hell out of me with another great TD catch and even Crayton although inconsistent we saw what he can do ....Romo is a goofball . He just is . Tons of athleticism and he just tries to make things happen when he is pressured and 1 time its a TD , 1 time its incomplete and seems like the other 2 times its a TO. Dallas is gonna be a what IF team all year I can see . Week to Week no adjustments or improvement . Cards defense was solid and did pressure Romo alot but thats on the DAL OL and playcalling IMO . I will fade Zona on the road and when the price is right play them at home. They are better at home but I dont believe the BS about there home field edge . They did shit on offense today and if Dallas played with the crispness of the Giants we would have seen a 20 pt margin. The great Card offense ? 276 yds NET offense today at home vs a supposedly weak secondary . Dal 12 penalties , 4fumbles only 1 lost , missed FG , opening kick for a TD and lose on a block punt for a TD when everything aligned for a win. Truth is at most the Cowboys should have been was -4 here and like everyother inflated line it lost ....Zona 19plays 51 yds entire 1st H !!!!! There success came from extending drives but Hightower doesnt get the 1st and DAL probably runs away with the game .
11p60yds
8plays 89yd (big play to Fitz 39yds)
9plsy 43yds FG
Zona is off and in there defense the offense without Boldin is not the same either .
GB@ Seattle - really nothing to say here . SEA one could expect the defense to play better after last week but they have no offense . Branch out again and was Hasselback and Wallace leaving Charlie Frye to start . Is it suprise looking at Koren RObinson and Frye and that the had 177 Net yds ?? GB did enough today and thats about all. Rodgers holding up well and theygot a tad healthier . Looking at GB and over next week .....SEA they are done and just another playoff team gone bad ....travel all the way to TB and thats not a good spot but what is the line >????
Philly @ SF - Now SF is even worse . I faded them because I knew they were nt very good and knew Eagles needed a win . Also Eagles played well @ Chicago and were favored by -3 but lost barely w/o Westbrook . Big step down in compettion and if NE who is like Philly's little brother in terms of comparing teams could win easily then Philly should as well .They wer ewinning easy till they couldnt punch in a 3rd and 1 to make it 21-6 . Till at 17-6 they allowed a long 50 something yd kick to Nedney and when lining up for a long FG saw it blocked and a blowout was 17-16 at half . Then of course SF started the 2nd H with a TD and oh shit theEagles were losing .I know it looks like the final score is BS with all the tack on points but Philly settled for so many FGS instead of TD all game as well . Akers had 4 FGS and missed another long one .A 19yder in the 2 quarter and then 38 , 25 and 28 in the 4th Q so thats really 4 red zone chances that ended in 3 instead of 7 ! Plus an INT in the red zone by McNabb . Take away the two 75 yd drives to start the 3rd Q after the momentum swung they had 90 yds of offense the entire game outside of that ....Philly should have won by DD rather easily but made it look hard and allowed SF to hang on .....Eagles get abreak and SF gets to play @ NYG at 1 PM so interested to see how Monday turns out . SF can do some things but they have a medicore defense and weak secondary with no playmakers in the passing game outside Bruce although Vernon Davis showed up today ....
Jax @ Denver - I had Denver game and then again at half . Cant figure this team out . They screwed ,me with the backdoor PUSH last week and cover ...Today they again have made turnovers that kill drives . Jax just moved the ball at will from that turnover in a 7-3 game and never looked back . Denver scores on the openng drives then fumble and int near midfield next 2 possessions . Which they follow up with fumble inside the 10 yd line of Jax and then a TOD inside the 30yd of line of JAx.Pittman was good running the ballbut seemed like they only targeted Narshall today in the passing game which they were minus Scheffler . Now Den plays @ NE which is a bad matchup for NE. Pats secondary is clearly theer weakness not the front 7 as LT did nothing until a few late runs after some momentum swings . However you can throw on NE and well DEN does that well . DEN though cant stop anyone IMO and interested to see how NE responds . Remember huge game for SD here and NE was w/o some key players . NE needs healthy rbs vs good teams to win . Its simple blitz Cassell and shadow Moss who scares uyou on NE now ? Also taylor was injurd here and Drew steeped up finally ....
NE @ SD - The last of my big plays was SD . Now the Chargers probably looked high . Think about though what was NYJ @ SD ? -9 What was NE @ NYJ PK ? So wouldnt -6 make alot of sense ? Anyway banged up NE squad vs a team desperate for a win playing a fucked up schedule . I mean @ Miami go home then @ Buffalo then @ London ?? SD wanted payback line was accurate the betting world didnt think so and drove it down hel I had this game at -4 , -5,5 and -6 ....once it got steamed in the afternoon I knew I was on the right side .....SD always tough at home and to there credit made some nic epass plays but again they played with the lead and had some good field position ....NE is going to be a middle of the pack team and cant improve to there RBs get healthy . Big key was I looked at the playoff game and Brady gone but Moss had 1 catch and Maroney had 120 yds . Maroney was out here and with Brady out even easier to take Moss out of the pass game ...so SD and UND was big for me .....teams are clearly starting to show 2 different personalties home and away now .....
Your thoughts ?? Really pretty basic for me cause really no suprises ATS . Rams win SU semi suprise .
