Week 6 plays/leans, Week 5 recap, and my opinion on Cincy/Rutgers

Dmoney416

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
Week 1: 5-5, +2.25u
Week 2: 5-4, +0.8u (also 0-1 on ML plays)
Week 3: 7-3-1, +6.85u (also 0-1 on ML plays)
Week 4: 6-6, -2.575u
Week 5: 6-4, +3.825u (also 0-3 on ML plays for -.75u)
Straight plays: 29-22-1, +12.7u
MLs: 0-5, -1.55u
Total: 29-27-1, +11.15u

Pretty happy with the way last week went. Was 2-4 early, but went 4-0 during the nightcap. Middling Rutgers proved to be the right way to go (counted as one win and one loss in my record). Getting Colorado St. at +13 proved to be huge as well. Getting on those early lines can be important. Buffalo was the biggest mistake, as Ball St. had no letdown.

Season plays:

Syracuse Under 4.5 Wins (4.2u to win 4): L 14-17 (1-4)
Georgia Tech Over 7 Wins (3.45u to win 3): W 13-3 (3-2)
South Carolina Over 7 Wins (2.4u to win 2): W 38-21 (4-1)

Huge week for the season plays. Syracuse is back on track after the Louisville win. Losing a toss-up against Miami OH is big. With Buffalo the only "easy" game left, the 'Cuse will need three more conference wins to send this over the total. GT had a big win as well. Still don't feel great about this as it was a flukish win, but I will take it. South Car., even with all of their injuries/suspensions, looks good for at least a push at this point.


Week 6 plays:

 Minnesota/Indiana Over 51 (4.4u to win 4)
Akron/Western Michigan Under 60.5 (2.75u to win 2.5)
TCU +4 (2.75u to win 2.5)
Central Florida -3 (-115) (2.3u to win 2)
Kansas St. -3 (2.2u to win 2)
Temple +4 (2.2u to win 2)
Cincinnati/Rutgers Under 57 (2.2u to win 2)
UNLV +7 (-120) (1.8u to win 1.5)
Mississippi -13 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Houston/Alabama Over 52.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)

 Week 6 Leans:

Minnesota +14


What I'll be looking for later:

CMU/Ball St. OVER
Tulsa/UTEP OVER
Minnesota/Indiana OVER
Vanderbilt/Auburn UNDER
TCU/Wyoming UNDER
Boston College TT OVER


Missed Duke +9 and Florida +10 at the open. They are the only real regrets. Write-ups coming tonight/tomorrow.

GL to all this week. :cheers:
 
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hmmmmm any chance unlv sees a seven again ? great line catch there.

kind of like ucf a tiny bit too... but been burned by the small away favorites this year and that makes me leery. need a writeup from you to sway me to the dark side hehe.

i am staying clear of the k state game as kansas is one of few teams i have no feel for .... utah being the major other one.
 
Thanks BAR - GL to you this week.

Cincinnati at Rutgers (-3)

I was looking at the game that these teams played last season. Cincinnati won 30-11 behind four Mike Teel interceptions. Teel was awful at times last season (especially against respectable defenses) and the Cincinnati game was no exception. He looked clueless out there, and Cincinnati was able to key on Ray Rice as it was obvious that Rutgers was one-dimensional. Turnovers and timely big plays on offense led Cincinnati to a 30-11 victory.

What has changed going into this year's game?

Intangibles:

- This year's game is at Rutgers
- Since Cincinnati ruined their run for a national championship, it is obvious that Rutgers is in a major revenge spot.
- More is at stake for Cincinnati: they are undefeated, in the top 25, and, given the early losses by Louisville and WVU, probably have premature dreams of a run at the BE championship despite not playing a divisional game.

What changes for Rutgers?

On Offense

- Mike Teel has obviously improved. Rutgers' passing game is now a viable threat behind Teel (over 1100 yards, 10 TDs, 2 INT this season). Having Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood emerge as deep threats doesn't hurt either.
- Heisman candidate Ray Rice is back, but FB Brian Leonard is gone to the NFL.

On Defense

- If last week was any indication, the run defense has regressed a little bit. Maryland's Lattimore had his way at times. Navy's option attack also had success earlier in the season.

What has changed for Cincinnati?

On Offense:

- They have upgraded at QB with Ben Mauk. Dustin Grutza also seems to have improved since last season. They of course have a new spread attack that is still developing, but the passing game has improved.
- More faces at RB: As of right now, it is not unusual to have five RBs get at least five carries.
- Playmaking TE Brent Celek is gone to the NFL.

On Defense:

- The front seven has not changed much. They are very good against the run and probably faster than last year's version.
- The secondary lost starters Dominic Ross (1st team All-BE) and John Bowie (4th round draft pick to the Raiders). While Mickens and Nakamura are no slouches, this unit probably has regressed a slight amount since last season.

Other things that have changed:

- Brian Kelly is the new HC and has them running a new spread offense.
- UC had to replace their kicker and punter. While their new punter is excellent, the new kicker has struggled mightily.


On to this year's game. I feel that the biggest change is that each team has developed a more efficient passing game.

Neither team could run the ball well in last year's game. Now, I know that Ray Rice is a Heisman candidate, but I expect Cincy to contain him given that they have nearly the same front seven that they did last year. While Cincy should be able to run the ball a little more effectively, I do not think they will dominate Rutgers on the ground. Cincy's biggest threat to break the long run is RB Jacob Ramsey, but he does not see to many snaps since he has problems blocking.

I feel that this game could come down to the performances of Teel and Mauk/Grutza. The key for Cincinnati is to neutralize Britt and Underwood with Mickens and Nakamura. Marshall's Bernard Morris and SDSU's Kevin O'Connell both have had success through the air against this team (some in garbage time, some not), so this secondary can be beaten. It should be noted that Cincy had sizable leads in these games, so some of these yards/completions could be the product of prevent and soft zone defenses. Note that both of them did have success though, and I am not trying to take away credit from their performances.

While Cincy does not have a real go-to guy in the passing game, they do have capable WRs. Rutgers will also receive a lot of varying looks that they have not seen in years past. Cincy could be using anything from the 5-WR spread to the option attack.

I see some Rutgers backers saying that "Cincy has not played anybody." I don't really understand these arguments. While SEMO, Oregon St., @Miami OH, Marshall, and @SDSU is far from an impressive slate, they took care of business handily in every game thus far. That is all you can ask from a team. Compare that to Rutgers' schedule of Buffalo, Navy, Norfolk St, and Maryland, and I am not sure how this argument can be used. Not only has Rutgers played every game at home, but their toughest game was against an average ACC team. Navy is a respectable opponent, but they are not what they were last season. Their D is just awful, and the Midshipmen could have made it close if not for the redzone turnovers.

Overall, I give Cincinnati a moderate advantage on the defensive side of the ball. That being said, I prefer Rutgers' offensive balance to Cincy's fledgling spread attack. Rutgers easily has the advantage at kicker, with consistent incumbent Jeremy Ito having a decisive edge over Cincy's Jake Rogers. However, Cincy's punter Kevin Huber has been nothing short of spectacular thus far, so I like Cincy's chances if this somehow turns into a field position battle.

I think that this line is right where it should be and I believe that I mentioned the Rutgers -3 line in the line openers chat room. The under seemed to have opened at 54 in Vegas, which I believe to be a touch too high. As a homer, I'll predict a Cincy win, but I think that this game goes down to the wire. Therefore,I can't recommend a side here.

Cincinnati 24
Rutgers 20
 
VK - UNLV was 6.5 and I bought the 7.

Will have a UCF and KSU write-up tomorrow hopefully. Wanted to get the Cincy one in tonight.
 
Interesting thoughts on the cincy rutgers game dmoney. I am one of the folks who believes that cincy has played no one .. save oregon state .. where they were heavily outgained and the offense sputtered vs the only decent defense they have played. Deceiving score in that game as cincinnati benefited from sean canfield turnover machine and muffed punt and blocked punt and so and so on. Every other defense they have faced is atrocious. you make a good point that rutgers has not played the toughest schedule in the world and they actually could have lost to navy if it werent for some interceptions in the end zone by midshipmen qb. Maryland is better than we think ( played wv pretty tough after fumbling snap on first play of game ) and rutgers might have been looking ahead. First real road test for cincinnati. the bearcats have won their last three on the road against connecticut, miami ohio and sdsu ... but have lost their last six road games against any semblance of a quality football team. In fact since 2003 they have yet to win more than two road games in a season. I say ... prove it. Since , oregon state was without perry for the cincy game , this will be by far the best ol that the cincy dl will have faced. the linebackers and safeties will have to provide more help in the rushing game than in any game they have played to date. this should leave the secondary more exposed and less likely to garner interceptions , which they have fed off for victories. the rutgers defense is probably not as good as oregon states but i think it is closer to that defense than marshall or miami ohio or the aztecs. This line means folks believe that cincinnati is the better team. Maybe they are ... but I don't think so. If they are better they will have to prove it under the hardest of circumstances. Glad your opinion wasnt strong enough for you to pull the trigger as a strong opinion from you and from huntdog might get me second guessing myself on this play. Tons of information in that write up there btw. An excellent read and very insightful as is the case with all of your stuff.

thoughts on marshall ?
 
Thanks BAR - think that the Rutgers/Maryland game along with Cincy's high point totals so far ticked this total up a bit too high.

VK - you will get no arguments from me about Cincy's schedule, but I just think that the argument loses its punch since Rutgers' schedule has been pretty similar. Also, of those six road losses you mention, two of them were in 2005 when they only returned six starters and they were not a good football team (they had four wins and barely beat W. Carolina). The other four were in 2006 @ #1 Ohio St., @ #11 Va. Tech, @ #7 Louisville, @ #10 WVU. They were at least 18 point dogs in all of these games and played well in the majority of them. I agree that Rutgers is lkely the 2nd best D they have faced thus far.

I feel like this game could go either way.

As for Marshall, Memphis just seems like a horrible football team to me. They lack any semblance of a defense. Also, I am one of the few that likes Bernard Morris and I think that he is capable of being a quality QB. Just a slight lean that I have to research more today.
 
VK - you will get no arguments from me about Cincy's schedule, but I just think that the argument loses its punch since Rutgers' schedule has been pretty similar. Also, of those six road losses you mention, two of them were in 2005 when they only returned six starters and they were not a good football team (they had four wins and barely beat W. Carolina). The other four were in 2006 @ #1 Ohio St., @ #11 Va. Tech, @ #7 Louisville, @ #10 WVU. They were at least 18 point dogs in all of these games and played well in the majority of them. I agree that Rutgers is lkely the 2nd best D they have faced thus far.
Hard to argue with your point here. Those are indeed quality opponents and they covered a lot in those games. keep up the good capping and look forward to more of your write ups through out the week.
 
Adding:

TCU +4 (2.75u to win 2.5): Ok, the books got me on this one. I can't figure out this line at all. This line is way off IMO, and this is coming from someone that has pretty low opinion of TCU.

Edit: Added another half unit.
 
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Added the following totals:

Minnesota/Indiana Over 51 (4.4u to win 4)
Akron/Western Michigan Under 60.5 (2.75u to win 2.5)
Cincinnati/Rutgers Under 57 (2.2u to win 2)
Houston/Alabama Over 52.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)

I can post the bet ticket for the Minny/Indy over if needed. I assume they will cancel the bet, but they have not as of yet. I believe that JC88 also saw the number in the totals thread as well.
 
wow over 51 ..... .... think you get to keep that one ?? that is an amazing value. Also like akrons offense for you in the wmich game. 57 seems high for cincy/rutgers too.

also like the ole miss addition.

gl as always dmoney !
 
I love the Under in this one. I snatched it at 52.5, damn 5dimes kills me on the late totals. 57 would have been gold, but I still like getting 7 touches and a FG. I have no idea who will come out on top, but that Under sure does look juicy

:cheers:
 
VK - thanks, no cancellation of the Over 51 yet...

Pokey - Thanks. If you can, open a Bookmaker account. Getting the openers can be big.

TCU (+4) at Wyoming

I wanted to bet Wyoming in this game. I wanted +3 or better. When I first saw the line, it was TCU -1, which I thought was correct. Wyoming was then hammered to -4, which I think is a joke. Considering the total in this game (40), this line has even more value.

Defense is the strength of both teams, with TCU giving up 73 points in five games (34 against Texas alone) and Wyoming giving up 78 points in four games.

Both teams are especially stingy against the run (which is also the strength of each offense).

Wyoming's opponents:

Virginia: 18 carries, -3 yards (-0.2 avg)
Utah St.: 42 carries, 133 yards (3.2 avg)
Boise St: 50 carries, 121 yards (2.4 avg)
Ohio: 33 carries, 37 yards (1.1 avg)

TCU's opponents:

Baylor: 25 carries, 51 yards (2.0 avg)
Texas: 36 carries, 176 yards (4.9 avg) - only team to have real success
Air Force: 42 carries, 146 yards (3.5 avg) - 71 yards of this came on one play where AF fooled them with the option on 4th and 1
SMU: 47 carries, 149 yards (3.2 avg)
Colorado St: 28 carries, 55 yards (2.0 avg)

Aaron Brown is the strength of TCU's offense. He did not play against Texas or Air Force, and he only played in a limited capacity against Baylor and SMU. He was back last week against Colorado St, and he looked good, rushing for 124 yards on just 22 carries. Brown is averaging 6.4 ypc on 38 tries this season.

TCU's QBs are not explosive, but they are consistent. Andy Dalton (questionable for this game) is 80-132 (60.6%) for 833 yards, 3 TDs, and 3 INT on the year. Marcus Jackson is 17-38 for 205 yards and 2 TDs. Jackson got the start against Colorado St. last week and was effective enough. It does not matter to me who starts this game. Dalton is far more accurate than Jackson, but Jackson is more elusive and is able to create with his legs. To me, the important thing is that these QBs have only thrown 3 INTs in 170 passes. In a tight, low scoring game like this expected to be, ball control will be important.

Wyoming presents a two-headed RB system with Devin Moore and Wynel Seldon. They basically split carries down the middle, with Moore having 64 carries for 435 yards (6.8 avg!!) and Seldon having 66 carries for 270 yards (4.1 avg). It will be important that TCU contain this duo.

The X-factor in this game is QB Karsten Sween. His numbers are fairly similar to Dalton's, except for one important statistic. He is 96-150 (64%) for 834 yards, 5 TDs, and 8 INT. Those eight interceptions could be important here. I actually believe that Sween is more talented than both Dalton and Jackson, but his turnover tendency is a cause for concern. Sween has thrown 8 INT in just four games, and he will now face a TCU secondary that is arguably his toughest test yet. TCU has 11 interceptions in five games, and they could beat up on Sween if he isn't careful.

What we have here is two teams that are very effective on defense. Both offenses also depend on the run. I just see a close game throughout where 4 points will be very valuable. TCU was the pre-season pick to win this league, and they have not done much to dispute that ranking besides giving away the Air Force game. Besides their impressive victory over Virginia in week one, Wyoming has not been particularly impressive in games against Utah St, Boise St., and Ohio. TCU's poor offensive statistics are also a bit skewed due to the absence of Aaron Brown for much of the season. I also like TCU to take advantage of Sween's mistake-prone nature. I'll take 4 points in what should be a FG game either way.

TCU 20
Wyoming 17
 
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Dmoney416 said:
Added the following totals:

Minnesota/Indiana Over 51 (4.4u to win 4)
Akron/Western Michigan Under 60.5 (2.75u to win 2.5)
Cincinnati/Rutgers Under 57 (2.2u to win 2)
Houston/Alabama Over 52.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)

I can post the bet ticket for the Minny/Indy over if needed. I assume they will cancel the bet, but they have not as of yet. I believe that JC88 also saw the number in the totals thread as well.
Click to expand...

yeap! like i said i doubt they will cancel it but to be on the safe side make sure you dont middle it at 67.5 or whatever the number is. nice grab!
 
Thanks red and JC.

Adding:

Temple +4 (2.2u to win 2)

That makes 10 plays. This could be it for the week unless Dr. Bob makes a line ridiculous.
 
Great job with the over at 51 D. That should be a cash by the end of the 3rd. If you got it at Bookmaker they should keep it. I got an error by them earlier in the year with the Wake/Nebraska game. They had the TT mixed up and had Wake at 29.5 and Nebraska at 21.5. Pounded the Wake under and they ended up honoring it.

With you on a couple other plays as well. Loving that Rutgers/Cincy under. Hope you have a great week
 
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