Week 6 plays and leans

Dmoney416

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
Week 1: 3-5, -2.75u
Week 2: 3-5, -0.87u
Week 3: 7-2-1, +6.15u
Week 4: 3-6, -3.35u
Week 5: 5-7, -4.57u
Straight plays: 21-23-1, -4.79u
Sides: 8-14, -11.6u
Game Totals: 13-6-1, +10.26u
Team Totals: 0-3, -3.45u
MLs: 0-2, -0.6u
Total: 21-25-1, -5.39u

Season plays:

Cincinnati OVER 6.5 Wins (+115) (10u to win 11.5): 3-1
Last Week: W 17-15 at Akron
Next: at Marshall

Purdue UNDER 7 Wins (-140) (1.4u to win 1): 2-2
Last Week: L 38-21 at Notre Dame
Next: vs. Penn St.

Week 6 plays:

North Texas +7 (2.2u to win 2)
BYU/Utah St. Under 59.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Rutgers/WV Over 43 (1.65u to win 1.5)
UK/Alabama Over 44.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Nevada/Idaho Under 71 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Wash St./UCLA Under 57.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Rutgers +14 (-120) (1.44u to win 1.2)
NC State +8 (1.32u to win 1.2)
Kent St. +3.5 (1.1u to win 1)
Cincy/Marshall Under 53.5 (1.1u to win 1)

Week 6 leans: (Bolded leans are stronger leans)

Pittsburgh +14
NC State +8
Iowa +9.5
Indiana +7.5
Kansas St. +7.5
Iowa St. +13
Miami FL -3
Eastern Michigan +21
Air Force -6
Tennessee -16
Western Kentucky +28.5

BOL to all this week. :cheers:
 
Last edited:
Collaros says he'll be ready
Posted by BKoch at 9/28/2008 3:12 PM EDT on Cincinnati.com

Zach Collaros went into the game at quarterback Saturday ahead of Chazz Anderson not because he had beaten out Anderson but because it was his turn.

“He didn’t do anything,” UC coach Brian Kelly said when he was asked what Collaros did to get the nod ahead of fellow redshirt freshman Anderson. “It was his week. Chazz was our backup for the Miami game. We haven’t been able to discern between the two of them because they’re so close in terms of what they can do.”

Collaros wasn’t asked to do very much with the UC offense, but Kelly said he was impressed with the yougster’s poise.

“The kid’s got moxie,” Kelly said of Collaros. “He’s not afraid. When he was in there he said, ‘Coach, I’m fine. Let’s go play. We’ll have to settle him down a little bit and put a package together that fits him. We’re going through quarterbacks too quickly right now.”

Kelly said that Collaros and Anderson will compete this week to see who starts Friday night at Marshall, with Demetrius Jones also getting more reps in practice.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if we play more than one quarterback,” Kelly said. “We’re probably going to play a couple of them.”

Whatever Kelly decides, Collaros said, he’ll be ready.

“I’m just going to work as hard as I can, try to prepare as best I can and see where it takes me,” Collaros said. “I feel I could go out there and play the whole game. We all know the offense. We all go to meetings. It’s just a matter of repetition and executing it.”
 
Bad timing for Bearcats
Posted by BKoch at 9/29/2008 12:29 PM EDT on Cincinnati.com

Having a quality quarterback is so crucial to success in Brian Kelly’s spread offense that he’s not afraid to stockpile them until he finds one that can do the job.

After last season ended, you could look at the UC roster and see that the Bearcats could have as many as nine of them on their 2008 roster if Ben Mauk had been granted another year of eligibility.

There was Mauk, Dustin Grutza, Tony Pike, Demetrius Jones, Craig Carey, Zach Collaros, Chazz Anderson and incoming freshmen Brendon Kay and Travis Kelce.

As it turned out, Mauk was denied his sixth year and Carey was moved to defensive end. But that still left seven quarterbacks on the roster and moved Kelly to proclaim during spring practice that somebody would have to move to another position, that seven was just too many quarterbacks to manage.

But he didn’t move any of them. And now he’s glad he didn’t.

First Grutza went down with a broken leg against Oklahoma. Then on Saturday, Tony Pike suffered a broken left forearm and will be out at least three weeks. Now the Bearcats are down to five quarterbacks, none of whom has any meaningful experience running Kelly’s offense.

The timing for UC couldn’t be worse. A third of the way through the season, it’s clear that there is no dominant powerhouse in the Big East Conference. With a competent quarterback, the Bearcats have as good a chance as anybody to win the league and go to a BCS bowl.

Now the odds have grown a little longer.

“You go into the season expecting that you’re going to play two quarterbacks,” Kelly said today. “But you don’t expect that you’ll have to go down to the third or fourth quarterback. Is that frustrating? Sure. But at end of day we’ve got three days to get ready (for Marshall). We can’t waste time around the office complaining about our circumstances. We put that behind us on the bus ride on the way back from Akron.”

Kelly said Demetrius Jones will not be in the competition this week between Collaros and Anderson for the starting job.

"He’s a backup right now for us,” Kelly said. “If we get into a pinch we’ve got a package we can run with him. But he’s still not ready to play championship football.”
 
Eastern Michigan looks like a solid lean to me , dmoney and i already played it.

What's up with north texas ?

I also like your bolded dogs of indy and iowa. indy being the one i feel more pressured into making a fast decision on as that line is dropping.

Do you know status of kaipocantpronouncetherestenhada ?? if one lean surprised me on that list its afa.
 
Thanks Hunt - BOL this week.

VK:

- I'm a glutton for punishment with EMU, so I'm sure I'll find myself on it at some point.

- UNT (more on this game later) matches up well with FIU in my opinion. FIU probably has the worst O in the nation next to Army, so that will help out the anemic defense. FIU also is a solid run stopping squad, something UNT won't do much of.

- Obviously like both Iowa and Indy, have to look into them more though.

- Kaipo is questionable still everywhere I look. I think the difference between he and Bryant is negligable anyway. I prefer AF because I think they hold moderate defensive and special teams advantages.
 
Outlook good for Pike, not so good for Frey
Posted by BKoch at 9/29/2008 6:59 PM EDT on Cincinnati.com

The outlook is good for a quick recovery for University of Cincinnati quarterback Tony Pike after he underwent surgery Monday on his broken left forearm.

Because the injury is to his non-throwing arm, Pike is expected to be throwing as early as next week.

“Tony’s surgery went great,” said UC coach Brian Kelly. “It was a clean, easy break. They plated it. We’ll start throwing him probably by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. I don’t think he’ll be ready for Rutgers (on Oct. 11). He may be available in an emergency backup situation, but that would be pushing it. But he definitely should be back for UConn (on Oct. 25).

“If we can get him back for UConn, we just need to manage these two weeks and we’ll be fine.”

The news was not so good for defensive back Drew Frey, who broke his right forearm. Frey tore the muscle strands around the bone, Kelly said, “and could be out for the rest of the season.”

Left guard Jason Kelce, who left the Akron game with a high ankle sprain, was wearing a protective boot and did not practice Monday, but Kelly was hopeful that Kelce will play against Marshall on Friday.

“We’re going to keep him inactive probably until Wednesday and then start working him in,” Kelly said. “My feeling is that he’ll be ready to go, but we’ll be careful with him until then.”
 
Thanks pags and aztec - BOL this week.

Added:

BYU/Utah St. Under 59.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Rutgers/WV Over 43 (1.65u to win 1.5)
UK/Alabama Over 44.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Nevada/Idaho Under 71 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Wash St./UCLA Under 57.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Cincy/Marshall Under 53.5 (1.1u to win 1)



Aztec, no opinion on the game. I'm on the under 53.5 though. I think its difficult to pick a side because there is little info on Anderson and Collaros and how much time each will receive.

I like the under though since Cincy figures to tone down the spread offense a little bit with the new QBs in there. Also, by all accounts, the Cincy defense was pretty bad last week against Akron. Still, they allowed only 15 points (and that's with two fumbles deep in their own territory).

Gun to my head, I take Cincy by a TD because I don't trust Cann to consistently sustain drives yet. It is not a good spot for Cincy though - @a mediocre CUSA team on TV on the eve of the conference schedule.
 
Good Luck this week D, awesome work you have been doing all season. Continued Success.
 
miss your boxscore tidbits post !!!

you beatmy numbers this week... have the rutgers total at 44 and the cincy total at 52.5.

lets cash those... would be nice to finally win a weekday game ... i havent yet this year.

no emu yet ? i have them in a tiny little 50 dollar ml parlay in addition to the side. I think they have a chance to win outright as a 3td dog. you need to move on iowa too before it hits a 7.

Also do you know status of indiana's kellen lewis ??

great thread as always ....talk to ya later D.
 
vegaskyle said:
miss your boxscore tidbits post !!!

you beatmy numbers this week... have the rutgers total at 44 and the cincy total at 52.5.

lets cash those... would be nice to finally win a weekday game ... i havent yet this year.

no emu yet ? i have them in a tiny little 50 dollar ml parlay in addition to the side. I think they have a chance to win outright as a 3td dog. you need to move on iowa too before it hits a 7.

Also do you know status of indiana's kellen lewis ??

great thread as always ....talk to ya later D.
Click to expand...

- Working on the box score stuff.

- You should be fine with those numbers. They are projecting Cincy to win 28-25? That makes zero sense.

- EMU does have a shot. Still thinking about it - will ultimately need 21 though.

- As far as I'm concerned I have already missed the boat on Indiana at 7.5 and Iowa at 9.5. I am very hesitant to play a game once it has moved more than a point from its highest point. It's one of my weaknesses as a capper.

- Lewis played some in the 4th quarter, and he isn't on the injury report at sports network. I'd assume he'll play, but I'll chime back in if I see something different.
 
Week 5 box score fun:

- USC was 2-10 on third down against Oregon St.

- Despite winning 35-10, Oklahoma had only 26 yards on 35 carries (0.7 avg). They also punted nine times at only a 34.2 ypp clip. However, TCU was penalized 12 times for 66 yards, had 4 turnovers, and was a combined 4-18 on 3rd and 4th down. Oklahoma had TDs of 76, 55, and 63 yards (all to WR Manual Johnson).

- Alabama led Georgia 31-0 at the half, but ultimately only outgained them by 10 yards. Alabama ran 45 times to 16 throws despite averaging only 2.9 yards per try. Georgia's punter Mimbs averaged only 30.3 yards on four punts.

- Florida out first-downed Mississippi 24-10 and outgained them by 118 yards. However, Florida was 1-11 on third down and turned it over three times. Mississippi had TDs of 86 and 40 yards.

- Lee got the nod at QB for Miss St. and had an efficient game: 17-26 for 175 yards and a TD.

- Arkansas had 11 yards on 26 carries against Texas thanks to Dick's -34 yards on 7 tries. Arkansas' only TD was an 80 yard fumble return in garbage time. Texas QB's were a combined 21-23 for 213 yards.

- Wisconsin led Michigan 19-0 at the half before succumbing 27-25. There were 9 total turnovers in the game. Wisconsin outgained Michigan by 116 yards. Michigan scored all of their points within a 12 minute span. Michigan's punter Mesko averaged 43.5 yards on 8 punts without a touchback. He is averaging 43.9 ypp on the year.

- Penn State averaged 5.5 ypc on 44 tries against Illinois.

- Despite 100 yards on 10 penalties, USF won 41-10 behind 520 total yards and 3 NC State turnovers. USF got consecutive safeties within a three minute span in the 3rd quarter.

- Robiskie was the only Ohio St. WR with more than two grabs against Minnesota (he had 8). Minnesota was 3-3 on 4th downs, which kept them close late.

- Tennessee managed only 9 first downs against Auburn. There 19 combined punts in the game. The deciding TD came on an Auburn fumble recovery in the end-zone.

- Wake Forest turned it over 6 times and managed only 43 yards on 31 carries. Wake turned it over on five of their first six possessions and the TOs led to 17 of Navy's 24 points. Wake Forest punter Sam Swank pinned Navy inside their own 5 yard line on three occasions.

- Utah allowed Weber St. to pass for 303 yards and 3 TDs. However, much of this came in garbage time, as Weber scored twice in the last seven minutes.

- Tulane ran up 474 yards against SMU, but they were penalized 10 times for 105 yards.

- Louisville racked 500 yards of offense and outgained UConn by 230 yards in their 26-21 loss. However, UL was 0-3 on 4th down and turned it over three times. Uconn's winning score came on an INT return with 2:45 left. UConn punter Desi Cullen averaged 44 yards on five tries.

- Michigan St. and Indiana combined for 970 yards of offense. Indiana's 3 turnovers made the difference.

Plenty left to go over. Back later after the Phillies game.
 
- Despite winning 35-10, Oklahoma had only 26 yards on 35 carries (0.7 avg). They also punted nine times at only a 34.2 ypp clip. However, TCU was penalized 12 times for 66 yards, had 4 turnovers, and was a combined 4-18 on 3rd and 4th down. Oklahoma had TDs of 76, 55, and 63 yards (all to WR Manual Johnson).

:down2:

- Louisville racked 500 yards of offense and outgained UConn by 230 yards in their 26-21 loss. However, UL was 0-3 on 4th down and turned it over three times. Uconn's winning score came on an INT return with 2:45 left. UConn punter Desi Cullen averaged 44 yards on five tries.


:down2:
 
Added:

NC State +8 (1.32u to win 1.2)

Still mulling over the following:

Air Force -4
Miami FL -2
Eastern Mich +20.5
Temple +7
Wyoming +11

Also, forgot to add Kyle's alma mater tidbit for the week, so here it is:

- UTEP Kicker Jose Martinez scored 16 points in their blowout win over UCF. He hit 7 XPs and 3 FGs, including booming a 64 yarder.
 
Kyle, sorry that I couldn't finish it up, but I added the important one.

Thanks Grind and Ramble - BOL Today.
 
If you've got 15 minutes and want a pretty good read on the AFA/NAVY game check out this site. Skip the first blog, but the next 4 or 5 are pretty good. Any blog that has a headline of Enemy Lines.

Nice start to the week as well D.
 
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