MusicCityGambler
Chill Winstonnn!
It's been a while guys. I found that I do a lot better when away from the forums. I become compulsive when I read all the posts and the more often you go on the ledge, the more likely bad things happen.
I'm a big believer in market corrections when it comes to spreads. While the sports book doesn't have the authority to force a team to cover, they do control the number put out. Ideally all teams would be close to 8-8 in covering and also in totals. Obviously there will be an outlier here or there in a given year but I think the premise is typically solid in NFL years where there is a lot of parity. I think we are in such a year. I did pretty well with this last week, hitting the AZ/SF Over, OAK/LAC Under, MIA/CIN Under.
So with that said here are my plays for this week. The Tampa Bay/Atlanta Under is the big play. The rest are peanuts.
TAMPA BAY/ATLANTA UNDER 57.5
Tampa Bay is 4-0 to go over this year. Atlanta has played four straight overs. If there was ever a game due to market correct this is the one. I like the fact that Jameis is coming back. He could easily be rusty and if Atlanta has a comfortable lead then I'd expect them to go heavier with the run thus fewer plays.
DENVER +7
Denver still hasn't covered this year and they're coming off a terrible loss to the Jets and now host the powerhouse Rams. To the average clown on the street there is no chance for Denver to keep it close. It doesn't make sense for Denver to cover but this seems like the kind of game bookmakers make mint.
PHILADELPHIA -3
They haven't covered in the last four games and have lost three outright. The last two were close losses and typically the Eagles play very well against the NYG.
CAROLINA/WASHINGTON UNDER 45
I'm a big believer in market corrections when it comes to spreads. While the sports book doesn't have the authority to force a team to cover, they do control the number put out. Ideally all teams would be close to 8-8 in covering and also in totals. Obviously there will be an outlier here or there in a given year but I think the premise is typically solid in NFL years where there is a lot of parity. I think we are in such a year. I did pretty well with this last week, hitting the AZ/SF Over, OAK/LAC Under, MIA/CIN Under.
So with that said here are my plays for this week. The Tampa Bay/Atlanta Under is the big play. The rest are peanuts.
TAMPA BAY/ATLANTA UNDER 57.5
Tampa Bay is 4-0 to go over this year. Atlanta has played four straight overs. If there was ever a game due to market correct this is the one. I like the fact that Jameis is coming back. He could easily be rusty and if Atlanta has a comfortable lead then I'd expect them to go heavier with the run thus fewer plays.
DENVER +7
Denver still hasn't covered this year and they're coming off a terrible loss to the Jets and now host the powerhouse Rams. To the average clown on the street there is no chance for Denver to keep it close. It doesn't make sense for Denver to cover but this seems like the kind of game bookmakers make mint.
PHILADELPHIA -3
They haven't covered in the last four games and have lost three outright. The last two were close losses and typically the Eagles play very well against the NYG.
CAROLINA/WASHINGTON UNDER 45
