Week 6 ML UNDERDOGS Discussion

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Well,

Last week wasn't exactly the smorgasbord of dogs cashing that we were looking for...

But, primetime each night brought us some nice smaller cashes -- Virginia, Oregon, and Alabama all cashed. The Hoos was obviously one of the more exciting ones in some time!

I believe Va Tech at 306 was the best payout in week #5. So, we have some work to do this week, but with how we were trending in September, I think this will be a BIG October!

Kansas is reeling a bit heading into Central Florida. Is UCF live at +165??

Can Virginia do it again? This time, they are on the road at Louisville, catching a TD and +215.

Washington is off a physical game at home vs Ohio State, heading cross-country to Maryland. Excellent spot for the Terps!

North Carolina could use a signature win. Clemson is the most disappointing team in the country. Maybe the Heels are this week's BIG DOG!

Cal a short home dog to Duke...

Florida continues the murder schedule, and at some point are going to ruin a season, perhaps? Here comes Texas...

Florida State hosts Miami in prime time. This game means something! Again.

Vandy has beaten up on a soft schedule, but have last year's confidence in mind as they head to Bama...

Let's talk shop, boys and girls!! What are you seeing?!?!
 
Frank Costanza said:
Good stuff. Tough spot for UW, indeed.
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Interesting schedule right now...

Vs Ohio State
@ Maryland (3:30 eastern)
vs Rutgers (Friday Night)
@ Michigan (3:30 eastern)
Vs Illinois

Then a bye week...

Rutgers should be a get-well game for the offense before heading to A2 but that's on a short week.

The Michigan game is at 3:30; however, I was hoping for noon from a capping perspective.
 
great week for dogs....
* numbers are last 2-3 yrs

maybe?

HOUSTON - Cougs have won about 50% outright (home dog) - TT has LOST about 70% SU (road favorite)
PURDUE- horrific spot for Illini - off great W / Ohio State on deck - Boilers off BYE
C Caro - they stink , but will pull off a crazy upset (6-7 SU as road dog) - ODU tough but better as dog - off Liberty W/Herd next
UNC - wouldn't think so - but Clemson may have quit? - keep in mind Troy was kicking their ass at home, off LSU loss - Derty Bill in double bye spot
ULM - NW a terrible HF - Penn St next
Okie St - Zona rock solid here? off ugly loss, BYU next - Pokes a total wildcard / moved the ball vs Baylor
Ark St - Tx St the flakiest of favorites (50% SU) - rumors that HC is leaving can't help this ugly road trip - ASU 4-7 SU HD


Solid shot to win outright

New Mexico- Sparty 2 may not should be favored here
UCF - Kansas lost 9/10 conf road openers
Iowa St - I have no idea why they are the dog here
SAla - bad spot, but maybe stronger team
Cal - Duke has lost 4/6 laying <7 on the road - Cal has won 2/3 getting <7
Kan St - Bears lose these about 40% of the time - must win for KSU
Wyoming - about 50% SU as home dog

maybe

BC, Terps, Ball St?, Fla, FSU, FAU, FIU, EMU?
 
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Speaking to the spot for Iowa State…I hate it. Lost their #2 corner in Cooper last week then lost their #1 corner in Jontez Williams this weekend against Arizona. Both ACL season ending injuries.
Not sure how secondary can hold up against Sorsby. Still think Iowa State will be extremely efficient on offense moving forward.
 
rochclone said:
Speaking to the spot for Iowa State…I hate it. Lost their #2 corner in Cooper last week then lost their #1 corner in Jontez Williams this weekend against Arizona. Both ACL season ending injuries.
Not sure how secondary can hold up against Sorsby. Still think Iowa State will be extremely efficient on offense moving forward.
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I think this game tailor made for Becht over props, with the defensive injuries, bearcats redic bad pass d, just screams becht smashes 225 yards.
 
I don’t trust uva pass d herd, I’m not the biggest ville fan so no chance I’m laying a td but kinda think moss lights these guys up.

Gotta love cal right? One my fav dog teams and getting points at home against a Duke team I don’t trust, 2nd week on road, and going across the country:, not the sexiest number but cal winning that game I thinks.
 
K-st is probably worth a look. Kinda assume they start getting it together after a god awful sept and having the bye, they looked pretty good vs ucf and I never trust anything about Baylor. The problem is I’m usually awful with bears games other than occasionally playing the qb passing prop but that has gotten super high now..

I have no freaking clue how vtech is a 7 point fav? Give me wake all day and for sure the ml also.

Havnt seen enough of Maryland but can’t see why I’d lay it with udub? Wish it was in the early window tho.

I don’t think this a money line play but sparty getting double digits? No way do I see Nebraska as the kind of team to be laying this number in big10 play:

That’s really all I see just skimming thru, I’m sure I’ll find some more at some point
 
2daBank said:
K-st is probably worth a look. Kinda assume they start getting it together after a god awful sept and having the bye, they looked pretty good vs ucf and I never trust anything about Baylor. The problem is I’m usually awful with bears games other than occasionally playing the qb passing prop but that has gotten super high now..

I have no freaking clue how vtech is a 7 point fav? Give me wake all day and for sure the ml also.

Havnt seen enough of Maryland but can’t see why I’d lay it with udub? Wish it was in the early window tho.

I don’t think this a money line play but sparty getting double digits? No way do I see Nebraska as the kind of team to be laying this number in big10 play:

That’s really all I see just skimming thru, I’m sure I’ll find some more at some point
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Agree with all. WF not anything to write home about either though.

I really want to take Vandy but I don't think Alabama will be taking them lightly this year.
 
Two Utes said:
Agree with all. WF not anything to write home about either though.

I really want to take Vandy but I don't think Alabama will be taking them lightly this year.
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Yea it much less my love of wake and more how shitty vtech has mostly looked.

It really hard not to like Vandy at least with the points but I agree won’t be any surprise this time. Kinda thinking I might prefer some kinda over or props. Im just conflicted on whether I wanna play pavia rushing or passing prop 🤣
 
CPA-hole said:
Seems like a bad spot for Duke.

B.A.R. said:
That's what I was thinking.
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Plus they really not that good for real, the defense is incredibly suspect, the offense strong but they a mistake waiting to happen! Enter cal who a great dog and usually opportunistic under this coach.
 
The Terrapins are allowing just 10.8 points per game and entered last week's bye with the most sacks (16) and interceptions (eight) in the nation. Granted schedule has been weak (FAU, NIU, Towson, Wisc.) and my major concern for MD is if their OL can hold up against better competition and if they can get their running game going. If not, they will struggle against better teams who can make them more one dimensional and pressure M. Washington. Locksley has put together a nice staff, and Pep Hamilton is doing a great job developing Washington. T. Monachino has been excellent with the defense so far, and in particular the pass rush and back 7 have been very solid. This game though marks a big step up in competition, so we will see how they fare.
 
BC +6.5. Total coaching mismatch. Pitt with a gut punch loss last week. Pitt is good at letting one loss become 2. Classic Nard Dawg bafoonery.
 
Timh said:
The Terrapins are allowing just 10.8 points per game and entered last week's bye with the most sacks (16) and interceptions (eight) in the nation. Granted schedule has been weak (FAU, NIU, Towson, Wisc.) and my major concern for MD is if their OL can hold up against better competition and if they can get their running game going. If not, they will struggle against better teams who can make them more one dimensional and pressure M. Washington. Locksley has put together a nice staff, and Pep Hamilton is doing a great job developing Washington. T. Monachino has been excellent with the defense so far, and in particular the pass rush and back 7 have been very solid. This game though marks a big step up in competition, so we will see how they fare.
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Like you said.... SOS not great (for their D - #130 toughest O's faced).....but

A great (old school) big picture indicator of team strength is yards/point margin, quick who's number 1?
>> OSU - Ducks - Penn St - INDY - OU? ....... nope, that would be the Terps (D is #1 at 35yds/pt)

D: #1 at pts/play allowed
#3 RZ TD
#4 drive success rate
near the top at TFL, and sacks (more sacks already than all of last year)
* SP+ #10
 
My play for the week...2, 3, & 4-teamer RR with:

Michigan State +360
Florida +164
Akron +240
Maryland +190
Risked $50 (~$4 per Parlay + $10 on the 4-teamer) to Win $2,059.43

BOLTA!!

🍀🍀🍀🍀
 
JROCK1966 said:
My play for the week...2, 3, & 4-teamer RR with:

Michigan State +360
Florida +164
Akron +240
Maryland +190
Risked $50 (~$4 per Parlay + $10 on the 4-teamer) to Win $2,059.43

BOLTA!!

🍀🍀🍀🍀
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Thought I had it yesterday....Maryland was up big in their 3rd quarter about the same time Sparty was making a comeback and took the lead....alas they both blew it.

😭
 
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