Week 6 ML Dogs Discussion Thread

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Great thread last week,
who has the best shot as a ML dog to pull the outright win?
Lets discuss
FSU +121
Vols +225
Vandy +145
Miss St +135
Texas +358
PennSt +125
Army +185
Cuse +135
Iowa +105
Notre Dame +122

A lot of home dogs this week.
Please post others....

I play in a contest that allows you to pick 3 Dogs each week and if they win you get however many pts that team was the underdog. Add up you total pts at the end of the year. It's a very fun contest/league.
 
When you start talking big dog upsets there aren't typically too many fundamentals supporting that kind of pick because they are a big dog for a reason. So you start looking at some other, often less tangible things.

Texas has covered three straight vs OU...all as DD dogs and has two outright upsets (so does that mean that Horns due for a blowout loss...ah the due factor perhaps the worst handicapping tool).

2013 a 3-2 Texas team was off a 31-30 win over ISU, came in here +12 vs 12th ranked 5-0 OU and won 36-20.

2014 a 2-3 Charlie Strong led Texas team was +16' and only lost 26-31 to 11th ranked 4-1 OU team.

2015 1-4 Texas was +16' and beat #10 4-0 OU 24-17 and Charlie was hoisted in the air by his team.

One can dig into how those games unfolded and what cause and effect led to the result. But if nothing else recent history tells us that this is a possible ML win.
 
I'm a dog lover but this week's slate does not turn me on. Ill throw out GT, Texas St, Ball, NIU, and FIU. Playing all these ATS myself, but not SU
 
bull said:
I'm a dog lover but this week's slate does not turn me on. Ill throw out GT, Texas St, Ball, NIU, and FIU. Playing all these ATS myself, but not SU
Click to expand...
agree on not best slate for ml dogs, short list right now
 
Does anyone think that bye weeks can hurt a team's building momentum leading to more of an off game than not? That is my fear with VT. That can be countered with UNC's huge emotional comeback wins vs Pitt and FSU and back-to-back weeks. i liked VT a bit, but am not real confident about that one.

I like BYU +195 a little bit. Their D would appear to be equiped to matchup with MSU O and Spartans are a little lost right now. Would the embarrassing loss the last time BYU came to the state of Michigan provide a little extra motivation? A would-be flat spot for MSU is no longer the case with their recent 2 losses. Could be a low scoring type game and BYU seasoned in close games this year.

Wyoming +325? If WYO O can show effective balance this one could be in the cards. Utah St had their best offensive output of the year vs IA opponents vs AF D, which is pretty surprising I think. Meyers arguably had his best game passing. Utah St couldn't run, but that may be due to May's reinjury and he had just 1 carry. Wonder if things would've been different had he been healthy, still nobody has been able to run on AF D. AF-WYO matchup deserves some more analysis, but seems like a candidate. This certainly appears to be Bohl's best team yet in Larmie.

Idaho +165? Vandals showed some signs of life in upset win at UNLV. Easy wins are nonexistent for either team so probably going to get best effort from both. Likely not a strong candidate, but on my radar mostly because I felt that Idaho has more potential, albeit limited.

Arkansas +430. Might as well take a match to your money if betting Bama to lose. Taking a 2 TD dog to win isn't ever easy. How does it happen here? Has to be turnovers. Tide lost 2 turnovers in their other two SEC games, but they also forced 2 in each which could easily happen here. Hogs were -1 TO vs aTm, RZ and run D were issues there. Hogs gained 2 and lost 0 vs TCU in that upset win. I'm not taking this ML, but if you get a game like 2014 it maybe could happen. Again, big dog upsets aren't usually the ones most sees coming and over the longterm not the wisest investment, but they sure are fun when they happen.

Colorado St+190. I was impressed with CSU at Minnesota and last week in the loss vs WYO a couple of turnovers in the 2nd qrt turned momentum and set a different tone there. The Fr QB Hill has looked pretty good at times. Will need to look into this one more. They are on my radar +6. All my bets are done on gameday so I get lazy and decide pretty late what I'm doing.

How about some of those PAC 12 dogs?
 
I agree on FIU+200. But they absolutely blew UTEP's doors off last year. Does that lend itself to confidence they will win this game, or does it provide UTEP with additional focus. Safer play with the points probably, but as clowncar has in his thread, probably best play here is the over.
 
s--k said:
Does anyone think that bye weeks can hurt a team's building momentum leading to more of an off game than not? That is my fear with VT. That can be countered with UNC's huge emotional comeback wins vs Pitt and FSU and back-to-back weeks. i liked VT a bit, but am not real confident about that one.

I like BYU +195 a little bit. Their D would appear to be equiped to matchup with MSU O and Spartans are a little lost right now. Would the embarrassing loss the last time BYU came to the state of Michigan provide a little extra motivation? A would-be flat spot for MSU is no longer the case with their recent 2 losses. Could be a low scoring type game and BYU seasoned in close games this year.

Wyoming +325? If WYO O can show effective balance this one could be in the cards. Utah St had their best offensive output of the year vs IA opponents vs AF D, which is pretty surprising I think. Meyers arguably had his best game passing. Utah St couldn't run, but that may be due to May's reinjury and he had just 1 carry. Wonder if things would've been different had he been healthy, still nobody has been able to run on AF D. AF-WYO matchup deserves some more analysis, but seems like a candidate. This certainly appears to be Bohl's best team yet in Larmie.

Idaho +165? Vandals showed some signs of life in upset win at UNLV. Easy wins are nonexistent for either team so probably going to get best effort from both. Likely not a strong candidate, but on my radar mostly because I felt that Idaho has more potential, albeit limited.

Arkansas +430. Might as well take a match to your money if betting Bama to lose. Taking a 2 TD dog to win isn't ever easy. How does it happen here? Has to be turnovers. Tide lost 2 turnovers in their other two SEC games, but they also forced 2 in each which could easily happen here. Hogs were -1 TO vs aTm, RZ and run D were issues there. Hogs gained 2 and lost 0 vs TCU in that upset win. I'm not taking this ML, but if you get a game like 2014 it maybe could happen. Again, big dog upsets aren't usually the ones most sees coming and over the longterm not the wisest investment, but they sure are fun when they happen.

Colorado St+190. I was impressed with CSU at Minnesota and last week in the loss vs WYO a couple of turnovers in the 2nd qrt turned momentum and set a different tone there. The Fr QB Hill has looked pretty good at times. Will need to look into this one more. They are on my radar +6. All my bets are done on gameday so I get lazy and decide pretty late what I'm doing.

How about some of those PAC 12 dogs?
Click to expand...
Pac 12 dogs looking good and I wouldn't even count Ore out even though their d has been awful...Arz, Arz St both have a shot as does Colorado
 
Georgia Tech weakness is pass defense. Not sure Pitt can exploit that enough. Academy dogs shorten games and less possessions can be good for dogs.
 
I guess Purdue has to be given a glance as it is hard to believe Illinois wins this game straight up much more than 75% of the time. I think Illinois wins but there would appear to be some value.
 
I bet Akron, and pray Woodson is a go.... but MOH pretty competitive so far and Akron defense can give up big plays.
 
ISU just gets better every single week. Task likely too tall but it wouldn't shock me which it should.
 
Hawaii - After watching Tulsa, Utah, and New Mexico the last few weeks, SJSU may really be bad.
 
Missed this thread last week but have been spending more time this year on the underdog upset win angle.
Hope to contribute to this and share, learn from others and get all of us some wins.
The first week of the year is ripe for these plays, this week do not like as much as the first 5 weeks.
In my general tracking seems only about 2-3 10 point + dogs win outright on average each week.
Factors I look for are home underdog with their game of year environment, big rivalry games, favorite in let down/look ahead/sandwich game.
Games that before the season were expected close but teams going in opposite directions also have ML dog win potential.
Arkansas and Navy would be win of the year, totally change the season victories which I look for.
Games with "save the season win" also get my attention with Texas and Oregon in such a spot this week.
Turnovers, keeping it close first half are what I hope for then momentum/energy to the dog rises and favorite tightens late.
Basically do some single wagers on the spread, small on the ML, a few very small ML parlay long shots.
Most weeks are either losing or break even with these plays but have hit one or two big parlay wins a year that makes it exciting and worth it.

This week I like Wash St, Iowa St, Arkansas, BGSU, Navy, Texas, Oregon.

Texas and Oregon I see as either favorite blow outs or dog wins so not doing single +point plays.
These two heavily include the rivalry, "save the season" type ML dog wins and have history of such on their side.
Also got early lines on OU and Wash for -7 each so gonna stay with that but may also middle if I get Texas +14 .
Will have a very small ML dog parlay with these two and Wash State.

Wash St has covered well, is an all or none team (hopefully all this week), think Stanford vulnerable to pass.
Wish Stanford had played better and not gotten blown out last week as this lost some value.
Wash St less under the radar than first 2 to 3 games this year but have weapons and speed to match up.
Concern that this may well be the game McCaffrey has the huge breakout performance.
I got Wash St at opening for +12 1/2 so feeling good with that and put some on ML.

Iowa St building some momentum, they seem to get one or more big underdog mid season upset wins a year.
Think they keep this close so +17 for me and small ML

For Arkansas think the early start time is a factor, home field game of year environment adds up.
Think the first half ML has more value here, worry about mid second half on wear down for Arkansas.
This has not just statement, win of the year for Arkansas but bigger program, coach, at the top again type potential.
Still on this for +14 and the ML.

BGSU is more of a fade Ohio and don't know as much of these teams, more tailing a friend who is on this.

Navy a total long shot but Houston on the road, potential let down, Texas teams seem to do better on west coast than east.
Navy could get in their heads, discipline / grind it out style hopefully keeps Navy close enough in 2nd half to swing energy for huge upset.
At first line release the games where the spread "should be higher" and then doesn't move also is a factor in selecting this one.
Worries are Houston speed vs Navy and Navy containing Houston from getting too many open field plays.

Four 2 or 3 team ML parlay combos mixing the above for small $ to win big.
 
clowncar said:
Notre Dame is the obvious one since they would have been laying over a TD a month ago
Click to expand...

I do like ND.

And speaking of value...Oregon was 4.5 pt fav now catching 10 at the moment I think. TT at K St was a pick'em...now K St -10. Tenn -4.5, now +7. Those were GOY numbers in summer.

So going from fav or even games to now, there is an adjustment for a reason. Teams aren't playing a certain way, or haven't lived up to expectations, etc.

I don't really get the TT - K St number. I will play TT with the pts and not thinking upset, but maybe something small just to make it more interesting. Is TT really any different than anyone expected? How many pts Mahomes worth? It is a system offense anyway and the backup looked great vs lowly Kansas. Is K St any different than anyone expected before the year started? I just don't get such a huge adjustment in this game when the teams are pretty much who we thought they were.
 
Navy a total long shot but Houston on the road, potential let down, Texas teams seem to do better on west coast than east.
Navy could get in their heads, discipline / grind it out style hopefully keeps Navy close enough in 2nd half to swing energy for huge upset.
At first line release the games where the spread "should be higher" and then doesn't move also is a factor in selecting this one.
Worries are Houston speed vs Navy and Navy containing Houston from getting too many open field plays.
Click to expand...

I like the attitude, but I don't have the balls for it.

Something else in the favor of Navy would be wind and wet conditions which would work against Houston's speed and passing advantages.
 
I know Navy moved it a bunch last year and the option really shouldnt necessarily just be grouped in as traditional rush offense when capping but, in my opinion, betting on anyone to run it against Houston when that's all you've got is the recipe for a Houston/UConn outcome we just saw. I considered under at 54 when it opened but too many concerns and LY box scares me even though this a totally diff Navy team
 
I played Wyo and CSU for 1/2 unit each to pay 172 and 95 respectively.
 
This week I like Wash St, Iowa St, Arkansas, BGSU, Navy, Texas, Oregon.
Click to expand...

Hope you played them. Even at 2-5 you'd make good money still with the Wash St and Navy wins. Plus if you played them all ATS you'd be 5-2.
 
s--k said:
Hope you played them. Even at 2-5 you'd make good money still with the Wash St and Navy wins. Plus if you played them all ATS you'd be 5-2.
Click to expand...

Thanks s-k, I did play them and had a winning week so all good.
Did not play the Oregon spread, had a middle with Texas that got messed up with late Texas TD.
Only let down on the spreads by Arkansas.
Did not hit one of my ML parlays but would have had $$$$ if Iowa State had held on as had them with Navy ML and Wash St ML.
Had the Wash State game for double on +12, +9 and ML so ended well.
On to week 7, already looking at a few possibilities
 
On to week 7, already looking at a few possibilities
Click to expand...

Good! I look forward to the week 7 thread as well.

I like taking some decent ML dogs because if you play 3 who are about TD or better dogs you only have to win 1 out of 3 generally to profit and if you narrow down the plays to what you consider the very best choices you can hopefully win a majority more often than not.

I think this is a good thread to narrow down the best choices. The Navy call is hard to see happen very often, but if you can envision it despite what some stats say, we all know big dogs can and do win outright. Just got to be on them at the right time. Lots of pretty big dogs discussed a potential upsets the last 2 weeks even if you just take those best choices with the spread it works out pretty well.
 
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