Like everyone else last week, just HORRIBLE on a day of weird, but entertaining college football. Some changes in my approach to Week 6 from what I posted earlier. As always...for what it's worth...
Minnesota +14
For the first time in about 2.5 years I really like Minny in this spot. Indiana is no jugarnaut, but for the first time since Antwaan Randle El was QB'in, Indiana isn't too shabby. They have a great pass rush yes, but it plays right into MN's biggest strength, the OL, which has played very well.
The MN offense still is capable of putting up points (30+) against second tier Big 10 teams. Indiana got a big upset win over Iowa last week as a DD dog, but their 4-1 record includes wins over Akron, Eastern Michigan, and Indiana St. Despite putting up 7 points against tOSU, the offense didn't play that poorly against the Buckeyes. Brewster has said all year that this team (MN) is going to win some football games. Well, here's the easiest stretch of the year for Minny if they want to pick up a few. Indiana, Northwestern, and North Dakota are the next three. At some point the offense has to click along with the defense.
MN QB Adam Weber continues to get better each week and has looked very, very good this week in practice. MN feels it can attack the Hoosiers aggresive style on D and gain big junks of yards. I'm expecting a lot more delays from Weber and Bennett/Pinnix and a lot of screens/dumps. Some classic dink and dunk type football taking advantage of Indiana's over agressiveness to put pressure on the QB.
MN quitely got good news this week with the announcement that WR Mike Chambers is transfering. Chambers complained he never got a fair shake at MN, but the truth is Chambers was a bit of a cancer and not a very well liked player. SIDENOTE - Chambers as a true freshman once refused to give current Rams OL and former Gopher lineman Mark Setterstrom a seat on the bus after a tough loss on the road. Setterstrom said to please move for some of the guys who played today, and Chambers told him to F off, he practices just like the starters. That attitude spilled over throughout the last 2 years with Chambers and the lockerroom is a bit happier place without him.
Minny's Defense still is terrible, there's no doubt about it, but I'm not sure Indiana will be able to adjust if MN puts some points on the board early. The Hoosiers have one speed on defense and my sources are saying MN is going to come out very agressive in the 1H/1Q and try to get an early lead and see if they can get the Hoosier defense back on their heels a bit.
There's a TON of confidence on the MN side and it's definately a different attitude than I've heard the last few weeks. This was a defeated team entering the Big 10 opener without a lot of confidence, but despite losing 30-7 to tOSU, they feel they played pretty well.
There's definately some value on the MN ML here as I think there's at 30-35% chance of a SU MN win. I'm biting on a few plays here.
Minnesota 34
Indiana 31
Minnesota ML for a medium play
Minnesota +14 for a medium play
Lean on MN/Indiana UNDER 67
ASU/Washington St OVER 63
Dennis Erickson has proven a lot to me these last few weeks. Primarily that he can keep his team focused and not get tooooo full of itself, something Dirk Koetter could never do. ASU is not short on confidence, but they are definately staying more focused under Erickson. HOWEVER, funny how one phone call can change the way you think!
ASU has taken advantage of a "soft" schedule to start 5-0, but their confidence has grown each week, especially for Rudy Carpenter, who looked unbelieveable in practice this week. This is a game of 2 teams going in the opposite direction. ASU is getting better and gaining confidence each week, while Wazzou is coming off back-to-back losses, including an absolute choke job against lowly Arizona last week.
ASU has averaged a whopping 26 points in margin of victory this year and hasn't scored less than 33 points this year, while their Defense is still ranked 6th overall. Ryan Torain is close to 100% healthy and the ASU passing attack is sharp. I think ASU controls this game while putting up points, but it could get dicey in the 2H...maybe.
Big things were expected out of the Cougars with Alex Brink and 4 great WR's in Brandon Gibson, Mike Bumpus, Charles Dillon, and Jed Collins. Add to that Brink has a passer rating over 150 and they definately have the makup of a team who could upset. Brink has completed almost 68% of his passes for 1459 yards, 15 TD's and only 4 INT's. AND the Wazzou OL has given up only 7 sacks all year!
If Wazzou wants a chance at a bowl this year, they've got to get one of these last 2 before the bye (ASU or @ Oregon). Did I mention it's Homecoming in Pullman?
Here is the exact conversation I had with one of the Wazzou WR's tonight...
Me: What are you guys thinkin?
Him: Let me tell you something, ASU's major weakness on defense is their safeties. What's our strength.
Me: You have insanely good WR's, but what about ASU's pass rush?
Him: Don't matter, Brink gets the ball out too fast.
Me: What's the attitude like up there?
Him: Bro, it's Homecoming. Our back is against the wall here too. If we're goin to a bowl we gotta get this one.
The Wazzou offense reminds me a little bit of old ASU were they can almost pass at will against teams. The Wazzou strength definately plays into ASU's weakness here, which worries me.
Overall, ASU should beat Wazzou SU, but asking for a DD win on the road, on Homecoming, with a team fighting for their bowl life, is asking for a little much for my blood. Wazzou's defense is terrible and I got the distinct impression there's not a lot of confidence in the defensive coaches up in Pullman. ASU should be able to put up their standard 35+ for no other reason than the offense is playing that good and they can.
HOWEVER, Wazzou will spread out the field with Gibson, Bumpus, Dillon, and Collins and try to make ASU use their nickle and dime packages to offset a very, very good front 7. Wazzou is very unpredictable, which makes this a very tough play. Brink is a senior in his last Homecoming game and I don't expect him to lay an egg here. This will be the best offense ASU has faced all year, but Wazzou's unpredictibility of how they play is a major issue. I think the likely hood of Wazzou pulling off an upset here is as good ASU winning by DD's. It screams trap to me, fellas.
Final thoughts...
Arizona St 41
Wazzou 34
OVER 63 is my play for a medium play
Leaning Wazzou ML as it has more value than an ASU cover...
Be back with more Friday...
BOL fellas...
:cheers:
