Week 6 Inital Thoughts

D-Woww

D-Woww

Old Man Dan
Figured I would get this started. The last 2 weeks this thread has been so great for me, talking things out has led to a lot of winners. Let's hope for more of the same

NE -16.5 vs NYG

Probably too many points here, but my lord the Giants secondary is just brutal. Brady may not throw an incompletion all day. I still do lean towards taking the points

TB pk vs Carolina

Interesting game. Not sure I see any betting angle, although I may keep riding the Panthers. They have so much talent on the roster and just needed a somewhat stable QB to put up some wins. How do you give up 350 pass yards to Minshew and the Jags though? If he could do that with Chark and Westbrook, Jameis should be able to shred them at home with Godwin and Evans (how on earth does Evans go a game without a catch?)

Houston at KC -7.5

This again feels like too many points. Houston is looking bomb on offense right now. Is Mahomes gonna be 100%? If he is I don't see how this game doesn't end in a shootout. Over city.

Seattle at Cleveland -2.5

Interested to see where the public goes on this one. Lean Cleveland

Cincy at Baltimore -11.5

Yuck. Ive been making some coin fading Baltimore; I feel like they have been overrated since week 1 just bc they crushed the Dolphins. Lamar Jackson shouldn't be laying a ton of points to anyone really. But do I have the gaul to back this terrible Cincy team? Maybe not. Could be a teaser play

NO at Jacksonville pk

Fun game. Kind of a must win for Jacksonville. If they fall to 2-4 they aren't winning the division. Actually think its a flat spot for Teddy B. Lean towards the stache

Philly at Vikes -3

Always take my home team plays with a grain of salt, but getting a FG here is pretty tempting. On one hand, Philly has a terrible secondary. We didn't see that yesterday because Luke Falk is one of the worst QBs to ever start an NFL game. There definitely is a chance Thielen is open all day. But overall, I would say this game is a complete toss up, so why not take the fg?

Washington -3.5 at Miami

I will not bet this game. I will not bet this game. I will not bet this game.........Miami looks tempting!.....I will not bet this game....

SF at LAR -4

SF on a short week. But hard to trust Goff right now. Probably a no play or an in game wager if a good spot comes up. Over is a potential play

Falcons -2 at Zona

Now this is a over bet if Ive ever seen one

Cowboys -8.5 at Jets

Never lay this many points on the road, yada yada yada, im taking the bait. Jets are brutal. Anything under 10 is a steal if Darnolds out. With him the number is probably ok...They are real bad though. Gonna wait and see but Cowboys or nothing.

Tennesee at Denver -2.5

I said this last week, but Denver is very close to being 3-2. Not as bad as some think. As of now I don't really have a lean to any side here.

Steelers at Chargers -6.5

If the Steelers have to move forward with this 3rd string qb, I will have no choice but to take the chargers here. Steelers season ended when the Tucker FG went through.

Detroit and GB -6

Fun game, finally a good MNF one. GB looks like legit contenders in the East. I think they get the W here, this is def teasable. Chargers/Packers looks like a great teaser option
 
I’m betting the Houston/kc over now and hoping for best w weather, mahomes ankle, rest of team health. If those things line up it should close way higher than 56 imo. Kc offense in red zone has fallen way off but just expect them to bounce back off few ugly performances in a row. Houston not capable of playing keep away like Indy did.,

im assuming that -7.5 is a typo? No way it opened there and already down to 4.5 right? I’d have pounded Houston getting more than a td with how banged up kc is. I’m tempted at 4.5 but obviously not as much.

No clue what Steelers qb situation is now? I’d be all over them and the points w Rudolph. Their pass rush will be a problem for chargers suspect line.

There a bunch of very interesting lines this week that got me scratching my head! There’s gonna be some carnage on one side the counter! But which?

Insane line #1

Saints are dogs to jags??? Holy shit, most public dog in history of gambling??? How are you gonna tell me on a neutral field the line this close? Do jags even get 3 points for home field? I doubt it. This insane so guess I gotta stay away? “Must win” for jags means nothing to me, they are so far at bottom of a very good afc south.

Insane line #2

Seattle is plus money to clowns?? Browns front 7 won’t be able to get to wilson enough to mask the secondary and did we see how niners gashed them on ground? More the same., only question i have before I bet them is Seattle generating pressure? Their sack percentage is not good but that doesn’t mean they not getting pressure we have seen all it takes. Are they getting pressure? Have to look that up.

Those the 2 biggest head scratchers to me. I do question if atl should be road favs against anyone not named fish or skins? Speaking of those franchises isn’t easily this fish best chance to win??

Give me Philly. Not buying cousins cause he shredded a awful d. Philly secondary may be struggling but they can get pressure, get pressure cousins throws it to wrong team. I’m I wrong in saying the little I caught of Philly wentz looked to be moving well and healthier than he been in forever. Is that fair to say??
 
Don’t we gotta play the over on Thursday night again? I hate thu night overs, worked out last week and can’t see playing it any other way here.

Imo it a forgone conclusion pats score 30+ vs this awful Gmen d. I know hoody d’s a nightmare for rookie QBs, looks like Sheppard will be out, but shoot, we might not need more than 7 from nyg to get to 43!!

Surely Jones gonna throw it a bunch! I know they only scored 10 at home last week but the little I watched of that Vikings game I saw they left some points on the field. I expect they score a couple tds in this one which I think absolutely be enough.
 
I cant play that over because the Giants might not score haha. May get involved with the Pats in a teaser or something
 
Seattle is plus money to clowns??

Grabbed this last night +2 before they took it off the board, also grabbed SF +4. I figured in the event of a SF blowout those lines would look quite different when they come back. Very curious to see where Bovada will have them, guessing SEA pick & SF +3.
 
im actually waiting to bang LAR -3. SF has been impressive but they are due for an off game and this is the spot for it.

Also, I just opened 5 different 3 team, 10 point teasers with NE -6.5 as the first leg. That number wont be around much longer. ill figure out the rest later, but getting the pats udner a td is a must; looks like no saquon, shepard or Engram for NYG
 
Steelers likely putting the wildcat back on the shelf, J Samuels out a few weeks after a knee scope. Moncrief might also be back in the mix as Washington is still being evaluated with a shoulder injury.
 
The TB/Car game is in London. May not change much in your thinking but you referenced Jameis shredding their defense at home, so I figured I’d point it out.
 
jedi ninja said:
The TB/Car game is in London. May not change much in your thinking but you referenced Jameis shredding their defense at home, so I figured I’d point it out.
Click to expand...

That sucks I was liking Tampa as home dogs. Guess the bright side is they playing this one at right time so we get morning fb! I do like that,,

Tampa did a great job shutting down mccaffery last time and their run d been really strong overall. Shut down mccaffery and think you beat the panthers. Still lean the dog even tho not at home.
 
D-Woww said:
I cant play that over because the Giants might not score haha. May get involved with the Pats in a teaser or something
Click to expand...

I don’t see pats shutting them out, I expect 10-14 from Gmen and think that be more than enough. Only problem is all the injuries Gmen appear to have, i ain’t pulled the trigger yet cause even if I still like it the more guys ruled out the lower it should go. I’d love to get ov41. But if Ingram is out along w Sheppard (I know Shepard for sure out), and Barkley still not back I dunno., hoping 1 of them play.
 
Darnold is apparently back & line has dropped from 8.5 down to 7. That's worth a look now.
 
2daBank said:
I don’t see pats shutting them out, I expect 10-14 from Gmen and think that be more than enough. Only problem is all the injuries Gmen appear to have, i ain’t pulled the trigger yet cause even if I still like it the more guys ruled out the lower it should go. I’d love to get ov41. But if Ingram is out along w Sheppard (I know Shepard for sure out), and Barkley still not back I dunno., hoping 1 of them play.
Click to expand...

weather also may be an issue
 
Hear on VSIN this morning that home teams off a bye actually have an atrocious record. However home teams coming off a Thursday night have a great record.

Bodes well for Rams & Skins (uggh), can't lay that hook.

I hear all these stats while driving so I never have a chance to write them down but that station has so much useful info. Also road dogs in the 3-point range have fared very well.
 
Just read Tampa Bay is not leaving for London until Thursday night. That seems awfully late
 
I think the Bears left rather late also. Didn't work out too well for them.
 
C-MAN said:
Just read Tampa Bay is not leaving for London until Thursday night. That seems awfully late
Click to expand...
Correct. The leave times were Wed and Thursday. The big difference last week is the Raiders were there ALL week.
 
SF missing star FB and both their tackles now. If they can win this game, at LAR, without those pieces then the division truly is theirs for the next 5 years... First game I won't bet on them (3-1 ATS and only loss came by 1-2 points ATS after hanging 5 turnovers) but hard to go against Kyle, too.
 
Good to see someone else see the light in 49ers being in a bad situation this weekend.

im keeping an eye on 49ers TT U23

This seems to be a game where we may want until gametime to buy Rams..
 
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This is quite strange. I have one book that has SF +3. I have another that has LAR -5.5. Not only that, but the 5.5 is juiced. Wondering if I should take both and got for a middle
 
D-Woww said:
This is quite strange. I have one book that has SF +3. I have another that has LAR -5.5. Not only that, but the 5.5 is juiced. Wondering if I should take both and got for a middle
Click to expand...

Why would you even be wondering? Of course you should, it’s a 4 pt middle if you buy SF to +6. It’s a 20/1 bet at that point (if they’re both juiced at -110). You could even buy LA down to 2.5 although that will lower the 20/1 number a bit. It’s still either free money or you push and pay juice on one of them.
 
The Ravens line is crazy to me. Cincy has been alternating close losses with blowout losses, but do the Ravens deserve to be dd faves to anyone right now? After blowing out Miami week 1 they have been outscored in the 2ndh 3 of the last 4 games. Defense looks pedestrian, Mixon could get the Cincy offense moving. I'm looking at the Bungles.
 
Lexington 125 said:
The Ravens line is crazy to me. Cincy has been alternating close losses with blowout losses, but do the Ravens deserve to be dd faves to anyone right now? After blowing out Miami week 1 they have been outscored in the 2ndh 3 of the last 4 games. Defense looks pedestrian, Mixon could get the Cincy offense moving. I'm looking at the Bungles.
Click to expand...

This may be a stay away for me. I agree that at first glance, its too many points, and I have faded Baltimore against the Steelers last week and the Browns a few weeks ago. But at the same time, this Bengals team is depleted. Auden Tate might be their best receiver lol. Andy Dalton had 22 passing yards at the half last week against the Cardinals bottom 5 secondary in the league. Now we wanna count on him to succeed in Baltimore? IDK, there are 2 things I am considering:

-mostly not playing the game but maybe tossing 1/5 of a unit on Cincy ML. I do belive this Baltimore team can lose to anyone in the league, maybe except for the dolphins

-Not playing it at all, hoping the Ravens play a week 1 type game where they just wipe the floor with a crappy team, meanwhile Seattle is in a bad schedule spot in Cleveland. Lets say Baltimore routs and Seattle loses to Cleveland. Baltimore goes to Seattle next week. Could we get seattle -3? -3.5? Anything under a td is gonna be an absolute pounder for me
 
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