Week 6 Football

[E.T.G.]

5 Unit Plays: 0-0
4 Unit Plays: 1-1
3 Unit Plays: 4-7
2 Unit Plays: 10-7
1 Unit Plays: 5-6
Plays of the Wk: 0-0
SoCar Games: 3-1
Totals: 2-2
Overall: 20-20 -1unit
SC Season Wins O7 (4-1) 3.6 to Win 3.

Wk 1: 1-5 -10.05units
Wk 2: 7-2 +13.2units
Wk 3: 4-4 +1.2units
Wk 4: 7-5 +2.15units
Wk 5: 1-4 -7.5units

Man I hate Clemson.

No offical plays yet, just some thoughts while I am at work. Was busy with my puppy all yesterday


SC-3.5: Gimme -3. I like Woodson, and I think UK has some weapons on offense but thats it here. They will get yards, they will score some points, but they leave Williams Brice with a loss. I don't think they are the #8 team in the country but they are going to be a fiesty team in the SEC-East. SC is getting better every week and that is something I expect to continue the whole season. I will say this, Blake ain't seeing the field any time soon. Despite Smelley going 19-37 passing, Spurrier is very happy and likes what he sees from his young QB. The offensive play calling was more of what you would expect from a Spurrier offense. Smelley makes quicker decisions than Blake does and he is impossible to rattle. One last important thing about Smelley. The players rally behind him and support him, Blake didn't get the same confidence from the players.

"Chris Smelley's debut was not only a success in the eyes of his coaches, but also his teammates. The players feel like on the field he's truly an extension of Steve Spurrier. He's spreading the ball around and the way he played against MSU only further fueled his confidence in himself and his teammate's confidence in him."

Another positive, the same starting 5 linemen will make the start this week. It looks like the revolving door at Guard might be done. There are some minor injuries to pay attention to. Boyd has a sprained knee, Davis has a charlie-horse in his quad, McKinnley has a slight concussion, as does Carlos Thomas. All are expected to play Thursday. Jared Cook will continue to improve his game and become more involved in the passing game. One odd thing, the coaches pulled the red-shirt off of frosh WR Joseph Hills, he is a big target who was hurt in the preseason. They played him on Saturday but only logged 2 snaps vs. MSU. I am a bit surprised by this but this is a player who they are "very excited" about and he will start getting more reps. I will post more during the week but the team is very focused and Kentucky's #8 ranking and 5-0 mark only fuel the motivation for the players.


FAU +15.5: I know this line was higher yesterday but it is inflated. I thnk its letdown city for USF and FAU should be able to get some points. I would like 17+

Hawaii -39: If anyone is going to cover 39, its them.

LSU -9: This is not a reaction to the UF-Auburn game. I just have many questions about UF. So they didn't play well on the road vs. Ole Miss and you could say 1)it was their first road game and 2)they were looking ahead to Auburn. Now after the Auburn loss they got to go on the road to play in one of the toughest night venues vs a team with just as much speed as them who wants revenge for last season. I think UF will have serious issues trying to run Tebow into the brick wall they call a run defense. I think if UF has any success its in the air, not running the ball. I think LSU can move the ball all day on them whether it is on the ground or in the air. UF is young on defense and they will be exposed by a very physical team. I want Early back but its not mandatory. LSU at night at home rolls to victory by 14-17+.

UCF -3.5: This is a pretty important game in CUSA with ECU knocking off Houston this past week. Kevin Smith and the UCF ground game are beasting a long and things are just going right for them right now. ECU is at home and road chalk was something I wanted to avoid this week but I like this UCF team.

SJST -6.5: Won't be a pretty game at all but I think SJST is ready to start moving in the right direction. Will get more indepth later.

Houston +11.5: Houston off a loss now on the road, Bama off B2B losses now at home. The fans will want a blow out but Houston has enough fire power on offense to keep it closer than expected.

Nevada -3: It is too tough for almost all of the WAC teams to go into Nevada and beat them. Ault has the boys playing too well at home.

UGA +2.5: I want UGA to murder Tennessee so I have to decide if I am thinking with my heart or head here.

Missouri -7: Nebraska doesn't do it for me but Chase Daniel at home does. I would like to get this line at -6 or -6.5.

Oklahoma -10.5: Huge bounce back game for both teams. I am very surprised Oky got stunned by Colorado but not so much surprised that Texas got knocked off. They were living dangerously on the edge and it finally happened.

 

[RetroVK]

LOVE your gamecocks this week as it qualifies as my favorite play of the young season. Have a quick question for you. I assume it will be a very very quiet stadium for an espn national television , midweek night game in south carolina, right ? How bad is the Kentucky defense going to look for USC after facing Georgia , lsu and mississippi state defenses three of last four weeks ?? I am just drooling over this game ... please please please let me find a 3 somewhere but I doubt I need to worry about a half point here. Spurrier > Brooks and that is not even close ... Have not even gotten into talent disparity after elimination of the qb position ( yes woodson is a man ) . Some polls even have Kentucky as a top ten team. lmfao. They are improved but give me a break .... late blown coverage from louisville giftwraps them a win and flukish fumble recovery and late game choking giftwraps another one for them in a game they were outplayed at arkansas. USC already has games at Georgia and at LSU under their belts...... This game is too good to be true .... hell my power ratings made south carolina a solid double digit favorite. I am drooling ..... ...... best of luck this week etg ..... as I also lean central florida uga and mizzu.

 

[frankiegotti]

ETG,

I am kind of hesitant to laying it with USC b/c of the significant losses on defense the past couple weeks. USC's offensive line may be very good so that makes me think i wonder what the under/over is going to be? That is the side i like in this matchup because with Andre Woodson for UK, i think it would tough to stop him. My question to you is do you think he can't be stopped, if not stopped what do you think USC will have to score to get the win and cover?

Also with south carolina playing some brutal opponents is it possible that they will be having a look ahead game?

I know all this success if relatively new to UK, so i know that they may not be as focused as some of the better SEC teams. I looked at UK's schedule and noticed that they have Florida next week. I am almost tempted to buy it down to -3 looking at it from that angle but there are a lot of contexts in which to view this matchup, hopefully we can have a good week long discussion to look at all available angles and determine the best play possible.

GL on your card.

 

[RetroVK]

Frankie , any look ahead here has to be on the kentucky side. They have LSu at home next week and then florida. USC has north carolina next week and vanderbilt after that

 

[E.T.G.]

LOVE your gamecocks this week as it qualifies as my favorite play of the young season. Have a quick question for you. I assume it will be a very very quiet stadium for an espn national television , midweek night game in south carolina, right ? How bad is the Kentucky defense going to look for USC after facing Georgia , lsu and mississippi state defenses three of last four weeks ?? I am just drooling over this game ... please please please let me find a 3 somewhere but I doubt I need to worry about a half point here. Spurrier > Brooks and that is not even close ... Have not even gotten into talent disparity after elimination of the qb position ( yes woodson is a man ) . Some polls even have Kentucky as a top ten team. lmfao. They are improved but give me a break .... late blown coverage from louisville giftwraps them a win and flukish fumble recovery and late game choking giftwraps another one for them in a game they were outplayed at arkansas. USC already has games at Georgia and at LSU under their belts...... This game is too good to be true .... hell my power ratings made south carolina a solid double digit favorite. I am drooling ..... ...... best of luck this week etg ..... as I also lean central florida uga and mizzu.

Quiet stadium? Get outa here. Not with the #8 team in the country coming to town and the 4-1 record the Gamecocks got. People are very very very excited about things in Columbia. Spurrier made it a point to call out fans for the 2-3k seats that were not filled for the 12:30 game this past WKEND. Auburn came to play on a Thursday night last yr and it was very loud. If the game keeps the crowd in it, then it is nothing to worry about. The thing about Thursday night games is that compared to the 85k on Saturday, there might only be 77-79k but you won't notice a difference because the crowd is usally a younger more rowdy crowd. As far as UK goes, If Houston Nutt didn't have an IQ lower than 12, they get bullrushed out of Arkansas. I think Arky had a 330-130 yard advantage at half. They did everything in their power to fuck that game up. UK has not played 1 solid defense this season. Kent St, L-Ville, Arky, W-Kentucky, FAU. This is by far the best one they've faced, with or without Jasper. UK has balance on that side of the ball and that is something I will take note to. Look for Brandon Issac to be back this week, they held him out vs. MSU because they don't pass that much but he will be roaming in the secondary vs. UK.

Special teams advantage to SC. Coaching advantage to SC. Defense advantage to SC.

UK has a better QB, better WR's, but their OL is not great and they will def get tested vs. some pressure. I think everyone making Kentucky #5-#8 is flat out nuts and I hope they remember where they ranked them after this game Thursday. I say this because if SC wins, I still don't have them as a top 10 team. I just don't feel like they are a top 10 team right now. By November, that could change, but when I think TOP 10, I think of dominant, complete, etc. I also think it is impossible to rank teams right now, there is such huge drop off from the top of the pecking list. As far as this game goes, SC will have no trouble moving the ball on UK while UK will find it difficult at times vs. SC. I think SC covers this spread but I just want -3 because I am anal about numbers and hate hooks.

 

[E.T.G.]

ETG,

I am kind of hesitant to laying it with USC b/c of the significant losses on defense the past couple weeks. USC's offensive line may be very good so that makes me think i wonder what the under/over is going to be? That is the side i like in this matchup because with Andre Woodson for UK, i think it would tough to stop him. My question to you is do you think he can't be stopped, if not stopped what do you think USC will have to score to get the win and cover?

I think Andre will get yards, get some points, have some open WR's but he will have pressure as well. He is not going to go 38-44 w/ 350 and 5td-1int. That just won't happen in this game. As far as defensive injuries go, Jasper is a significant one but the defense gets Brandon Issac back in the secondary this week, they held him out vs. MSU because they didn't want him to get banged up vs. a team who doesn't pass much. The loss of Nathan Pepper hurts but the DL is deeper than the LB position and Eric Norwood has really stepped up his play.

Also with south carolina playing some brutal opponents is it possible that they will be having a look ahead game?

There is no look ahead in this game for SC. They watched film last night (Sunday) on UK and they recognize that 1) UK = 5-0 and 2) UK =#8. They are hyped and ready for this game if anyone was ever looking ahead, it was looking past MSU for UK. The next few games vs. NC and Vandy are nothing to look forward to.


I know all this success if relatively new to UK, so i know that they may not be as focused as some of the better SEC teams. I looked at UK's schedule and noticed that they have Florida next week. I am almost tempted to buy it down to -3 looking at it from that angle but there are a lot of contexts in which to view this matchup, hopefully we can have a good week long discussion to look at all available angles and determine the best play possible.

I don't think UK will be looking ahead either. It has been nearly 8 years since they beat the Gamecocks. They have 2 brutal games with LSU and UF coming up so this is more or less a must win in the conference for them.


GL on your card.

thoughts in bold

 

[frankiegotti]

appreciate the thoughts ETG

 

[3wiggler]

SC-3.5: Gimme -3. I like Woodson, and I think UK has some weapons on offense but thats it here. They will get yards, they will score some points, but they leave Williams Brice with a loss. I don't think they are the #8 team in the country but they are going to be a fiesty team in the SEC-East. SC is getting better every week and that is something I expect to continue the whole season. I will say this, Blake ain't seeing the field any time soon. Despite Smelley going 19-37 passing, Spurrier is very happy and likes what he sees from his young QB. The offensive play calling was more of what you would expect from a Spurrier offense. Smelley makes quicker decisions than Blake does and he is impossible to rattle. One last important thing about Smelley. The players rally behind him and support him, Blake didn't get the same confidence from the players.

"Chris Smelley's debut was not only a success in the eyes of his coaches, but also his teammates. The players feel like on the field he's truly an extension of Steve Spurrier. He's spreading the ball around and the way he played against MSU only further fueled his confidence in himself and his teammate's confidence in him."

Another positive, the same starting 5 linemen will make the start this week. It looks like the revolving door at Guard might be done. There are some minor injuries to pay attention to. Boyd has a sprained knee, Davis has a charlie-horse in his quad, McKinnley has a slight concussion, as does Carlos Thomas. All are expected to play Thursday. Jared Cook will continue to improve his game and become more involved in the passing game. One odd thing, the coaches pulled the red-shirt off of frosh WR Joseph Hills, he is a big target who was hurt in the preseason. They played him on Saturday but only logged 2 snaps vs. MSU. I am a bit surprised by this but this is a player who they are "very excited" about and he will start getting more reps. I will post more during the week but the team is very focused and Kentucky's #8 ranking and 5-0 mark only fuel the motivation for the players.

Was waiting for this line to come out but frankly thought with all the hype around Kentucky I thought it would be pk/-1....now with the hook it's probably not a play.

I see one way for sure SC wins this game. Follow what Arkansas did by running it down Kentucky's throat and keep the ball for 40 minutes of the game....on the other side if this turns into a shootout, SC just isn't able to keep pace.

I just don't know if Spurrier will put the genius hat down long enough to run it at a 2:1 ratio. If they put the game in Smelley's hands and try to win a high scoring game, they will lose. Unfortunately, I don't think Spurrier can resist throwing it 30+ in this game. I probably don't play or I go small money line bet on Kentucky if it gets to +150 but I don't think we get there.

 

[E.T.G.]

Was waiting for this line to come out but frankly thought with all the hype around Kentucky I thought it would be pk/-1....now with the hook it's probably not a play.

I see one way for sure SC wins this game. Follow what Arkansas did by running it down Kentucky's throat and keep the ball for 40 minutes of the game....on the other side if this turns into a shootout, SC just isn't able to keep pace.

I just don't know if Spurrier will put the genius hat down long enough to run it at a 2:1 ratio. If they put the game in Smelley's hands and try to win a high scoring game, they will lose. Unfortunately, I don't think Spurrier can resist throwing it 30+ in this game. I probably don't play or I go small money line bet on Kentucky if it gets to +150 but I don't think we get there.

Some valid thoughts 3wiggler.. Just a few counter-thoughts.

SC has been running about 75-80 plays a game. If they get that many vs. UK, it will prob be about 40-45 running, and around 35 passing. He will take what the defense gives him, if that means running the ball, but he has confidence in Smelley to put it in the air. I question the shootout part of it though. SC appeared to have no offense in the beginning of the yr but the talent has always been there. Things have begun to spin the right way for them, the OL is doing great in pass blocking, the RB's are finding holes and they have balance and they have downfield attack with Smelley. They have gotten better on offense every week and Spurrier is showing more and more confidence every week. They will get 400+yards on offense and 35-38 on UK. Can UK get to 35 or 38 on SC? That hasn't been done in a long long time, (Missouri got 38 in the bowl in 2005, Auburn got 45 in 2005). While UK has a better overall offense at the skill positions, the OL is rather untested and their defense sucks which will make SC look more potent than they really are on offense, especially with the HBC picking on their weak spots. One thing that I also want to touch on. Check out 2nd half scoring vs. the SC defense. That includes the 5 games this season and the last 5-6 of the 2006 season. Teams are seeing a huge dropoff compared to their first half since SC has been making great defensive adjustments. I get the impression that you think UK is going to put a lot of points on the board? O/U 31? 35? 38? 40?

 

[RambleOn]

Looks like we agree on LSU, UGA, Houston, and Oklahoma.

Only one I am against you on Is Kentucky. I totally agree with all your points and this is defiintely a solid GameCocks team that has the advantage in coaching and defense. However, I echo 3Wiggler's thoughts in that I don't know if Spurrier will be able to play a grind-it-out type of game here. In a shootout, Kentucky wins.

BOL on the others.

 

[3wiggler]

UK team total

Its all based on the pace of play. If the 'ol ball coach starts flingin it around, I see Kentucky putting up 30+. If you look at that Arky first half, they had the ball for like 19 minutes and kept the Kentucky offense out of rhythm. The Kent St game is the same thing. SC follows that script and limits his touches they could keep the UK total 20ish or under.

Worth mentioning...Kentucky will be a huge public dog. Early betting has UK at like 58%, which is quite large. I really want to bet SC. I am looking for a way to gain confidence in the SC offense.

 

[E.T.G.]

SC -3...........4.8units to Win 4units.

• When USC has been able to run the ball under Spurrier, it usually wins. The Gamecocks are 2-0 this season and 9-2 overall since the beginning of the 2005 campaign when it accumulates more than 150 rushing yards. The Gamecocks are 8-2 during Spurrier's watch when they total 400 yards or more of total offense.
• The difference in the game will come on defense. The chances are much greater the USC defense will stop the Kentucky offense than the Kentucky defense stopping the USC offense.
• Out rush them, keep even or win the turnover battle, win the field position/special teams battle, make better 2nd half adjustments, win the game.
• Spurrier is 12-1 SU when favored at SC.
• Protect the home field

I see something along the lines of 38-27, 34-24, 31-24

 

[E.T.G.]

Looking hard at the following:

Miami -6.5
TVU/Wyoming under 40.5
Houston +11
UGA ML
ASU/WSU Over 63
SJST -7
Nevada -3
UCF -3.5
RU -3.5
LSU -8.5
Missouri -7

 

[Dmoney416]

Not sure if you are still interested, but FAU seems to be climbing back towards 17. Sitting at 16.5 now.

I'll be rooting for SC tomorrow. GL this week ETG.

 

[signalcaller]

GL bro. I hope we cash the SC ticket. Im thinking they win by 7-10. Spurrier owns Kentucky. And Ill take the home team with the better coaching any day.

 

[RambleOn]

For what it's worth, I think Miami and Rutgers are solid plays. I would add them if my card wasn't large already ( and damn I still might). Another team that seems to be getting some good line value is Akron.

 

[signalcaller]

Loving that Miami play ETG. Think they frustrate this young NC team and their defense plays their way to another solid W

 

[E.T.G.]

Not sure if you are still interested, but FAU seems to be climbing back towards 17. Sitting at 16.5 now.

I'll be rooting for SC tomorrow. GL this week ETG.

Thanks for the heads up on that. I don't know exactly what I think about USF, I am still not as high on them as their ranking so I want to watch them some more.

GL bro. I hope we cash the SC ticket. Im thinking they win by 7-10. Spurrier owns Kentucky. And Ill take the home team with the better coaching any day.

:cheers:

For what it's worth, I think Miami and Rutgers are solid plays. I would add them if my card wasn't large already ( and damn I still might). Another team that seems to be getting some good line value is Akron.

Thanks. The thing with Akron is that I hate the MAC so 99% of the time I skip games in that conference.

Loving that Miami play ETG. Think they frustrate this young NC team and their defense plays their way to another solid W

Yup, on it.


I took my time this week because none of the lines I was really interested were moving away from me.


Miami -7................2.2unit to Win 2unit
NC rush defense blows. Miami has too much team speed and NC is too 1-dimensional with the pass. Miami should win this by 13+

TCU/Wyoming U 40.5..........2.2unit to Win 2unit
Unders have not been nice to me but here are two teams both good at stopping the run. Each team has a shaky QB and each Coach wants to minimize turnovers in an important MW game. Wyoming has a very tough home field advantage and could win this game, they play at 7200ft. I see a 17-13 type game, not many points at all should be scored here.

LSU -7...............3.3units to Win 3unit
I am not done on this game, I will look to bump it up later. How much is LSU home field at night worth? I would have to say 4.5 or 5 points so I find this line to be a bargain. UF has 35 players making their 2nd ever travel into the toughest venue in the country. A #1 ranking and revenge are on the line. LSU sports a brick wall defense that is too tough up the middle to run on the inside and too fast on the outside to get to the sideline. In this game the speed that UF uses to their advantage is neutralized. I think if UF has any success in this game on offense, it is throwing the ball. At times, teams this yr have had time to throw vs. LSU but if you can't maintain balance, they will eat you alive. Having Doucet out hurts but the Gator defense is too young and not physical enough for LSU who will pound away at the rush defense and later opening the pass. I will add one last factor, the ESPN hype machine for motivation. LSU has listened to Tebow this and Tebow that, Percy Harvin this and Percy Harvin that, they will step up and quiet that talk here. I was thinking a -9 or -10 line here and so I think I have a lot more value than initially planned, thanks Dr. Bob. LSU by 13+


more coming

 

[lindetrain]

ETG,

Staying in Greenville tonight...what a great place. Got some golf in, the town is beautiful, and going downtown at night is sweet...

 

[GangstaTalkRight]

ETG

Yo greeny nice play on USC last night it was a very nice way to start the week off.

As for friday night i had the over in the ncaa fb game.

Lets make some cashes this saturday and make a statement.

 

[E.T.G.]

Oklahoma -12................2.2unit to Win 2unit

 

[E.T.G.]

I suck


LSU -7......2.2units to win 2units.


That is a 5unit play now

 

[RambleOn]

ETG -

Tough loss for us on Oklahoma. Consider my ire right now, because I had 9.5, the kicker missing that FG blew my cover!