Week 6 Deceiving Finals / S--k Craziness Thread
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Texas Tech - K State was a crazy box I just looked at. Pretty sure TT had almost 300 more yards - K State with St and D score in 1H and had 44 points on around 300ish offensive yards.
Tennessee got Tennesse'd - funny they lose the best game they've played in probably a decade. John Chavis needs to spend the bye week teaching the Ags that not every hit needs to make sportscenter by concussing the other player and/or yourself - it's actually very beneficial to use your arms and hands when tackling, this isn't soccer.
Alabama/Arky - Bama left points on board - turned it over twice going in but made up for it with 2 more non-offensive TD's. Arky threw for 400 and the total yardage was pretty equal but with even that being said Bama winning and covering was def the right side and could have been worse.
GT/Pitt total was a real bad beat for under backers
Tennessee got Tennesse'd - funny they lose the best game they've played in probably a decade. John Chavis needs to spend the bye week teaching the Ags that not every hit needs to make sportscenter by concussing the other player and/or yourself - it's actually very beneficial to use your arms and hands when tackling, this isn't soccer.
Alabama/Arky - Bama left points on board - turned it over twice going in but made up for it with 2 more non-offensive TD's. Arky threw for 400 and the total yardage was pretty equal but with even that being said Bama winning and covering was def the right side and could have been worse.
GT/Pitt total was a real bad beat for under backers
what was misleading about it? I was there and thought that the game went reflected the scoreline
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
If you bet totals you will figure it out. Start by counting the possessions.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
IU 17 TOSU 38
Combined for just 664 yards and 32 first downs in the game but somehow got to 55 pts. Tosu with Td drives of 9 yards and 6 yards in the game off of turnover and kick return respectively. Also had a 4 play 33 yard drive after Indiana was stopped on downs. Ohio state had game covering interception return at very end called back by penalty too or this could have been even more deceiving. Tosu with 383-281 yardage edge so obviously final margin is also deceiving.
Combined for just 664 yards and 32 first downs in the game but somehow got to 55 pts. Tosu with Td drives of 9 yards and 6 yards in the game off of turnover and kick return respectively. Also had a 4 play 33 yard drive after Indiana was stopped on downs. Ohio state had game covering interception return at very end called back by penalty too or this could have been even more deceiving. Tosu with 383-281 yardage edge so obviously final margin is also deceiving.
I agree on the GT/Pitt total. Running the box score here's what I get. Total should have been lower.
[TABLE="width: 1300"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]ATS[/TD]
[TD]Act. yds vs act. spread[/TD]
[TD]Game should've been..[/TD]
[TD]Win Margin[/TD]
[TD]Yds/TO spread conv.[/TD]
[TD]Game tot[/TD]
[TD]Closing Line[/TD]
[TD]YPP[/TD]
[TD]OFF Plays[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Georgia Tech[/TD]
[TD]Won ATS[/TD]
[TD]Worse than predicted[/TD]
[TD]Lower Scoring[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]6.87[/TD]
[TD]71[/TD]
[TD]6.50[/TD]
[TD]6.75[/TD]
[TD]55[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pittsburgh[/TD]
[TD]Lost ATS[/TD]
[TD]Better than predicted[/TD]
[TD]Lower Scoring[/TD]
[TD]-3[/TD]
[TD]-6.87[/TD]
[TD]71[/TD]
[TD]-6.50[/TD]
[TD]6.56[/TD]
[TD]62[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Yppt. Total[/TD]
[TD]W/L Projection[/TD]
[TD]Margin[/TD]
[TD]Actual Yds[/TD]
[TD]Score should've been..[/TD]
[TD]TO[/TD]
[TD]Adjusted TO[/TD]
[TD]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]Next Week[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Georgia Tech[/TD]
[TD]53.87[/TD]
[TD]Should have lost by[/TD]
[TD]6.87[/TD]
[TD]371[/TD]
[TD]23.50[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]-0.54[/TD]
[TD]18.00[/TD]
[TD]FADE[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pittsburgh[/TD]
[TD]53.87[/TD]
[TD]Should have won by[/TD]
[TD]6.87[/TD]
[TD]407[/TD]
[TD]30.37[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1.00[/TD]
[TD]23.00[/TD]
[TD]PLAY[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Won Game[/TD]
[TD]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]Plays Run[/TD]
[TD]YPP[/TD]
[TD]Adj TO[/TD]
[TD]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]Rush Att[/TD]
[TD]3rd Down EFF[/TD]
[TD]Penalties[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Georgia Tech[/TD]
[TD]------[/TD]
[TD]------[/TD]
[TD]------[/TD]
[TD]YES[/TD]
[TD]YES[/TD]
[TD]------[/TD]
[TD]YES[/TD]
[TD]5-for-11[/TD]
[TD]5-46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pittsburgh[/TD]
[TD]YES[/TD]
[TD]YES[/TD]
[TD]YES[/TD]
[TD]------[/TD]
[TD]------[/TD]
[TD]YES[/TD]
[TD]------[/TD]
[TD]6-for-11[/TD]
[TD]2-15[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
MOH 13 Akron 35
These two teams combined for just 31 first downs, and for just 559 yards. Akron scored 35 points on just 299 yards !! Obviously the margin of victory is deceiving with a 39 yard difference between the two teams. There were 11 "3 and outs" in the game.
These two teams combined for just 31 first downs, and for just 559 yards. Akron scored 35 points on just 299 yards !! Obviously the margin of victory is deceiving with a 39 yard difference between the two teams. There were 11 "3 and outs" in the game.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
AFA 26 Wyo 35
61 points on 699 yards. Don't need to go much further. Fumble in the end zone for a Wyo and a long run on 3rd and 23 to the afa 1 yard line near the end of the game when wyo was just trying to run it closer and waste time contributed to the ridiculous number of points scored.
61 points on 699 yards. Don't need to go much further. Fumble in the end zone for a Wyo and a long run on 3rd and 23 to the afa 1 yard line near the end of the game when wyo was just trying to run it closer and waste time contributed to the ridiculous number of points scored.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Colorado 17 USC 21
USC with 539 yards but only managed 21 points. Colorado with 371 yards. Both teams threw an interception but USC lost three fumbles to keep Colorado in the game. I suppose this is one of the more deceiving finals from a side perspective as it related to the spread.
USC with 539 yards but only managed 21 points. Colorado with 371 yards. Both teams threw an interception but USC lost three fumbles to keep Colorado in the game. I suppose this is one of the more deceiving finals from a side perspective as it related to the spread.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Sad face
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I agree.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
A few things for now. Lots of sports action today. I will post more later.
Couple things from a Wyoming perspective, Josh Allen was great as was the Cowboy defense. Right before the halftime after AF cut it to 14-6, with under a minute left WYO took a shot on 1st down and got a 50+y pass that put them atleast in FG range, but also plenty of time to work for a TD. But a WR was on the line of scrimage covering up the TE and they were called for illegal formation. That did keep potential pts off the board and kept AF more in the game. A head scratcher for me, during AF’s comeback, they had bunch of momentum on both side of ball, but after they made it 28-26 (AF 2 pt failed), they onside kicked with about 3-4 minutes left. AF had atleast 2 timeouts, maybe all 3. WYO recovered the onside kick. That was a very strange decision in that situation, I may look up Callhon’s post game comments on that. But that did set WYO up with a shorter field, and on the aforementioned WYO final TD with 1:30 left, it was 3rd and very long due to a bootleg WYO was going to run, but AF blew up Allen leading to big lost yardage. Allen was actually hurt on the play, but an AF timeout allowed him time to gather himself and stay in the game. And then on that 3rd and 25 or something he was able to scramble around for a 1st down and set up the final TD. Looking back, there were 2 occasions for sure, maybe 3, that Allen just missed on huge pass plays to very open to wide open WYO receivers. AF played man pretty much all game and WYO could've had a few more big plays for sure that were just off the mark. Good overall gameplan and execution for Wyoming. Air Force played about 1 quarter where they looked like the better team. WYO D continues to be opportunistic in the defensive backfield with INTs.
San Diego State dominated much more than the 26-7 final implies. UNLV’s only TD was a 20y fumble return. SD St owned a 460-122 yard edge, 22-9 first down edge. A few SD St drives were marred by penalties and a couple sacks that led to punts or FGs.
I thought it was funny seeing Stanford scramble to try and score a meaningless offensive TD as time was expiring. I seem to remember some coaches getting upset with Mike Leach for calling timeouts and doing the same in prior years when W St was getting blown out. Stanford trailed 42-10 when they scored their only offensive TD as time expired for the 42-16 final. Prior TD was Stanford D pick-six. Wazzou outrushed Stanford. McCaffrey was injured, went to the locker room and spent a lot of time on the sidelines (9 offensive touches for 40y).
Arizona St sacked UCLA QBs 5x, their most of the season and Rosen got banged up and was in and out of the lineup during the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters with former walk-on Fafaul replacing him at times. Rosen also fumbled a couple times, losing one. UCLA did throw for 400+y, but rushed for –1 and lost 3 turnovers. Bruins missed a 46 and 49y FG in first half. For the game UCLA had 443-275 yardage edge, but had to settle for FG attempts too often. ASU QB White (who started for Wilkins) was on crutches at games’ end. They burned the RS on Fr Dillon Sterling-Cole was INT’d in the EZ late 4th qrt.
Colorado St made halftime adjustments to overcome a 24-10 deficit. CSU went 80y TD on their first possession of the second half, and later 54y to tie it while Utah St had just 3 first downs in the 3rd qrt. QB Collin Hill left the game for CSU in the 3rd qrt and Kent Meyers also got banged up, but continued play at less than 100%. CSU QB Stevens (last year’s starter) led the go-ahead TD drive in the 4th qrt. Utah St’s last two possessions were SOD at CSU 27 and INT at midfield ending their comeback bid. CSU registered 4 sacks. An earlier Utah St fumble at midfield was not capitalized on by CSU when they punted back a few plays later.
Arizona scored on the first play of the game a 75y TD pass when Utah defenders came up to stop a QB RPO and Dawkins hit a wide open receiver. Zona did throw an INT in Utah territory and missed a FG to end the half. Dawkins was not able to continue past midway in the 3rd (came in with rib injury) and Fr Tate replaced him. Zona threw INTs on back-to-back 3rd qrt possessions. Utah was penalized 14x for 98y. Armand Shyne who I think may have been 4th string preseason started due to RB injuries and attrition, but he appeared to suffer a knee injury in the 4th qrt. Utah OL also had many players out of position and I think had a 3rd string G or something playing C for the first time of his career.
Not much by air for Cal or Oregon St and those QBs combined for just 209 yards and 0-3 TD-INT ratio. Cal ran for 317 and Oregon St ran for an amazing 474 (school record vs conference opponent). Beaver RB Nall said “we knew we could run on them”. Cal did score on D, both teams kicked some short FGs. Ore St lead 34-17 before Cal scored 24 of the next 31 in the 4th qrt. Cal also converted 4 of 4 on 4th down in their comeback attempt.
Nick Saban was not happy with his defense following the 49-30 win over the Hogs depite the fact the D got turnovers and set up a 4p 18y TD after an INT and also ran a fumble and INT back for TDs, including a 100+y pick-six. The pick-six happened just after Arkansas had converted a 4th down and was threatening to get under the spread in the 4th quarter. Arkansas did have 25-16 first down edge, but Tide outgained them 517-473 (10.1-5.6 ypp). Saban going to work that D hard this week in practice getting ready for Vols.
FIU blew open a close 13-7 game vs UTEP with 319-158 second half yardage edge for the 35-21 win. Each team missed a FG. FIU ran for 238 to UTEP’s 139. I had read speculation that Aaron Jones got banged up (just 8 att 73y).
More later.
Couple things from a Wyoming perspective, Josh Allen was great as was the Cowboy defense. Right before the halftime after AF cut it to 14-6, with under a minute left WYO took a shot on 1st down and got a 50+y pass that put them atleast in FG range, but also plenty of time to work for a TD. But a WR was on the line of scrimage covering up the TE and they were called for illegal formation. That did keep potential pts off the board and kept AF more in the game. A head scratcher for me, during AF’s comeback, they had bunch of momentum on both side of ball, but after they made it 28-26 (AF 2 pt failed), they onside kicked with about 3-4 minutes left. AF had atleast 2 timeouts, maybe all 3. WYO recovered the onside kick. That was a very strange decision in that situation, I may look up Callhon’s post game comments on that. But that did set WYO up with a shorter field, and on the aforementioned WYO final TD with 1:30 left, it was 3rd and very long due to a bootleg WYO was going to run, but AF blew up Allen leading to big lost yardage. Allen was actually hurt on the play, but an AF timeout allowed him time to gather himself and stay in the game. And then on that 3rd and 25 or something he was able to scramble around for a 1st down and set up the final TD. Looking back, there were 2 occasions for sure, maybe 3, that Allen just missed on huge pass plays to very open to wide open WYO receivers. AF played man pretty much all game and WYO could've had a few more big plays for sure that were just off the mark. Good overall gameplan and execution for Wyoming. Air Force played about 1 quarter where they looked like the better team. WYO D continues to be opportunistic in the defensive backfield with INTs.
San Diego State dominated much more than the 26-7 final implies. UNLV’s only TD was a 20y fumble return. SD St owned a 460-122 yard edge, 22-9 first down edge. A few SD St drives were marred by penalties and a couple sacks that led to punts or FGs.
I thought it was funny seeing Stanford scramble to try and score a meaningless offensive TD as time was expiring. I seem to remember some coaches getting upset with Mike Leach for calling timeouts and doing the same in prior years when W St was getting blown out. Stanford trailed 42-10 when they scored their only offensive TD as time expired for the 42-16 final. Prior TD was Stanford D pick-six. Wazzou outrushed Stanford. McCaffrey was injured, went to the locker room and spent a lot of time on the sidelines (9 offensive touches for 40y).
Arizona St sacked UCLA QBs 5x, their most of the season and Rosen got banged up and was in and out of the lineup during the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters with former walk-on Fafaul replacing him at times. Rosen also fumbled a couple times, losing one. UCLA did throw for 400+y, but rushed for –1 and lost 3 turnovers. Bruins missed a 46 and 49y FG in first half. For the game UCLA had 443-275 yardage edge, but had to settle for FG attempts too often. ASU QB White (who started for Wilkins) was on crutches at games’ end. They burned the RS on Fr Dillon Sterling-Cole was INT’d in the EZ late 4th qrt.
Colorado St made halftime adjustments to overcome a 24-10 deficit. CSU went 80y TD on their first possession of the second half, and later 54y to tie it while Utah St had just 3 first downs in the 3rd qrt. QB Collin Hill left the game for CSU in the 3rd qrt and Kent Meyers also got banged up, but continued play at less than 100%. CSU QB Stevens (last year’s starter) led the go-ahead TD drive in the 4th qrt. Utah St’s last two possessions were SOD at CSU 27 and INT at midfield ending their comeback bid. CSU registered 4 sacks. An earlier Utah St fumble at midfield was not capitalized on by CSU when they punted back a few plays later.
Arizona scored on the first play of the game a 75y TD pass when Utah defenders came up to stop a QB RPO and Dawkins hit a wide open receiver. Zona did throw an INT in Utah territory and missed a FG to end the half. Dawkins was not able to continue past midway in the 3rd (came in with rib injury) and Fr Tate replaced him. Zona threw INTs on back-to-back 3rd qrt possessions. Utah was penalized 14x for 98y. Armand Shyne who I think may have been 4th string preseason started due to RB injuries and attrition, but he appeared to suffer a knee injury in the 4th qrt. Utah OL also had many players out of position and I think had a 3rd string G or something playing C for the first time of his career.
Not much by air for Cal or Oregon St and those QBs combined for just 209 yards and 0-3 TD-INT ratio. Cal ran for 317 and Oregon St ran for an amazing 474 (school record vs conference opponent). Beaver RB Nall said “we knew we could run on them”. Cal did score on D, both teams kicked some short FGs. Ore St lead 34-17 before Cal scored 24 of the next 31 in the 4th qrt. Cal also converted 4 of 4 on 4th down in their comeback attempt.
Nick Saban was not happy with his defense following the 49-30 win over the Hogs depite the fact the D got turnovers and set up a 4p 18y TD after an INT and also ran a fumble and INT back for TDs, including a 100+y pick-six. The pick-six happened just after Arkansas had converted a 4th down and was threatening to get under the spread in the 4th quarter. Arkansas did have 25-16 first down edge, but Tide outgained them 517-473 (10.1-5.6 ypp). Saban going to work that D hard this week in practice getting ready for Vols.
FIU blew open a close 13-7 game vs UTEP with 319-158 second half yardage edge for the 35-21 win. Each team missed a FG. FIU ran for 238 to UTEP’s 139. I had read speculation that Aaron Jones got banged up (just 8 att 73y).
More later.
piperdog188
Well-Known Member
Follow the Money: Teams getting <40% tickets but >60% money at William Hill (indicating sharper money): Va Tech, NC State, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Fresno, Idaho, NIU. Of these teams, only Oklahoma failed to cover (6-1 ATS).
Oregon failed to cover as a dog for the first time since 2009 (7-0-1 ATS), losing 70-21 to Washington. At William Hill, 5 of the 9 biggest bets they took on Saturday was on Washington.
Navy dropped from +17.5 to +15.5 within a matter of minutes on Saturday morning despite receiving less than 20% of tickets. They then proceeded to beat Houston outright at home, 46-40.
Despite the majority of tickets on Arkansas the entire week, they never dropped below +14, and even moved to +14.5 by kickoff, indicating bookmakers were not willing to move to Bama -13.5 in fear of lots of sharp money on the Tide. Alabama was able to win and cover 49-30.
Oregon failed to cover as a dog for the first time since 2009 (7-0-1 ATS), losing 70-21 to Washington. At William Hill, 5 of the 9 biggest bets they took on Saturday was on Washington.
Navy dropped from +17.5 to +15.5 within a matter of minutes on Saturday morning despite receiving less than 20% of tickets. They then proceeded to beat Houston outright at home, 46-40.
Despite the majority of tickets on Arkansas the entire week, they never dropped below +14, and even moved to +14.5 by kickoff, indicating bookmakers were not willing to move to Bama -13.5 in fear of lots of sharp money on the Tide. Alabama was able to win and cover 49-30.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Some surprising results? How about these beauties...Southern Miss and Marshall were dominated by teams with a combined 3-6 record entering the games.
SMiss feel behind fast and deep, 21-0 and 28-7 1st qrt, SM never got closer than 14 in the 2nd half. But SM outgained the Roadrunners 557-532 for the game. That overall advantage resulted from a 2nd half SM edge of 315-143 when they were already down 38-21. SM had a 31-17 first down edge, but UTSA only faced 3rd down 9 times. UTSA fed off of big plays on the ground and air (80 & 92y runs, 77 & 71y receptions). SM was -3 TOs.
Amazingly Marshall never led at North Texas. After NT goes 11p and 75y on their opening TD drive, Marshall's first TD was a 4p 24y drive following a NT QB fumble. NT then again went on a 75y 13p drive to retake the lead. Marshall missed 49y FG, then following a NT fumble, Marshall missed a 42y FG to close the half. NT tried to keep Marshall in the game, but Herd couldn't capitalize. NT only had a 186-143 yard edge, but no Marshall drive was longer than 34 yards. But NT totally took control in the second half with a 252-111 yard advantage. NT ran for 305 (4.7) to Herd's 60 (05) and passed for 206-TD-0INT (64%) to Marshall's 258-0TD-INT (47%).
Texas St jumped out to a 14-0 lead over Georgia St on 75y and 83y TD drives, but Geo St scored the next 34. After having 158y on their first 2 drives, T St only had 104 on their next 5.
Kansas nearly pulls the upset win as 4 TD+ dog and they would've done it had Jayhawks not missed 3 FGs including the would-be game winner with just :02 left. All 3 FGs were missed in the 4th qrt. KU had a 23-14 lead entering the 4th qrt.
Cincinnati settled for short FGs to build a 9-0 lead (FGs of 25, 43, 26). Cin was also SOD 4th and 1 at the UConn 30. UConn did throw an INT on 1st down from the Cincy 28, but Bearcats gave it right back 5 plays later. Sherriffs would throw a deep out with the DB diving for the ball and UConn was in the EZ on a 1p 59y TD to take momentum into the locker room trailing just 7-9. UConn dominated the second half with a 243-144 yard edge, Bearcats didn't get past the UConn 42 yardline until their final drive got to the 33 where they were SOD in the final seconds. UConn did kick two short FGs of 30 and 23 yards like Cincy did in the first half.
Kent State passed for just 89y, but ran for 341 including QB Holley's 224 on 24 att with 4 TDs. This game was just 27-6 entering the 4th qrt (Kent ret'd fumble in 2nd qrt for D TD). Entering the 4th qrt, UB had just 199 total yards, but would gain 197 on their final 4 drives of the game in the 4th with 2 TDs. Kent contributed 17 pts in the 4th for a 31 pt 4th quarter and 44-20 final.
After Eastern Michigan ran for 212 and 232 vs their prior 2 opponents (BGSU and WYO), they were held to just 62 on the ground vs Toledo. Tol had 467-317 yard edge, but ypp was even 5.7-5.5. Tol had 30-16 first downs as EM was just 20% on 3rd down to 65% for Tol. Toledo was SOD at the EM 15 on their first drive and after having a 1st and 10 at the EM 24, they eventually punted that drive. 0-0 end 1st qrt and just 7-3 at half. EM did fumble a KO that led to a 15y Toledo TD drive. Woodson was 25-31 (80%) for 247 4TD. Hunt ran for 141 (4.8). EM was -2 TOs.
After just a 3-0 lead following 1st qrt, the total was in question late in the BG-Ohio game. It stayed under 60 with a final 30-24 but under backers had to sweat it out. 4th qrt BG was SOD at the Ohio 4 after an 85y drive. Ohio missed a FG and earlier in the game BG kicked a FG from the 2.
Akron outgained Mia, Oh just 299-260 in the 35-13 win. Redhawk drives ended in short FGs and Akron's ended in TDs, 21-6 halftime. Offense was scarce in the 2nd half for both teams (1 good drive for Mia, Oh), but Akron was able to get a 5p 16y TD and 1p 32y TD pass following 2 INTs. Mia was -3 TOs. Akron had a 70y TD run, take that away they ran for 55y on their 34 other attempts. Capman QB'd Akron, Wezensky for Mia.
Ball ST - CMich was just 17-14 Chips in the 4th when Neal threw a pick-six and CM led 24-14. Ball answered on a 75y TD drive to make it 24-21. Ball's final drive got to the CM 32, but Neal threw a INT on 1st and 10. CM went on to kill the last 1-1/2 minutes. Right before halftime CM had the ball on their own 22 with just :32 left. Spalding broke off a 63y run, 3 plays later on 3rd and 10, CM threw a 15y TD for the 17-7 halftime lead.
USF did out gain ECU 556-476 (7.8-5.2 ypp), but ECU was in position to cover this game (depending on your line). In the 2nd half ECU started coming back from a 24-6 deficit. ECU scored the next 16 pts (2 pt failed) to trail just 22-24 with 6:58 left in the game. But they lost by 16. USF hit a 62y TD pass and the next drive on 4th and 4 from midfield with under 4 minutes left ECU threw an INT that was returned to the 17. Two plays later USF was in the EZ for the 38-22 lead. ECU's final drive got to the 42 where Pirates were SOD. Backup Minshew QB'd the 4th qrt as Nelson left with inj.
SMiss feel behind fast and deep, 21-0 and 28-7 1st qrt, SM never got closer than 14 in the 2nd half. But SM outgained the Roadrunners 557-532 for the game. That overall advantage resulted from a 2nd half SM edge of 315-143 when they were already down 38-21. SM had a 31-17 first down edge, but UTSA only faced 3rd down 9 times. UTSA fed off of big plays on the ground and air (80 & 92y runs, 77 & 71y receptions). SM was -3 TOs.
Amazingly Marshall never led at North Texas. After NT goes 11p and 75y on their opening TD drive, Marshall's first TD was a 4p 24y drive following a NT QB fumble. NT then again went on a 75y 13p drive to retake the lead. Marshall missed 49y FG, then following a NT fumble, Marshall missed a 42y FG to close the half. NT tried to keep Marshall in the game, but Herd couldn't capitalize. NT only had a 186-143 yard edge, but no Marshall drive was longer than 34 yards. But NT totally took control in the second half with a 252-111 yard advantage. NT ran for 305 (4.7) to Herd's 60 (05) and passed for 206-TD-0INT (64%) to Marshall's 258-0TD-INT (47%).
Texas St jumped out to a 14-0 lead over Georgia St on 75y and 83y TD drives, but Geo St scored the next 34. After having 158y on their first 2 drives, T St only had 104 on their next 5.
Kansas nearly pulls the upset win as 4 TD+ dog and they would've done it had Jayhawks not missed 3 FGs including the would-be game winner with just :02 left. All 3 FGs were missed in the 4th qrt. KU had a 23-14 lead entering the 4th qrt.
Cincinnati settled for short FGs to build a 9-0 lead (FGs of 25, 43, 26). Cin was also SOD 4th and 1 at the UConn 30. UConn did throw an INT on 1st down from the Cincy 28, but Bearcats gave it right back 5 plays later. Sherriffs would throw a deep out with the DB diving for the ball and UConn was in the EZ on a 1p 59y TD to take momentum into the locker room trailing just 7-9. UConn dominated the second half with a 243-144 yard edge, Bearcats didn't get past the UConn 42 yardline until their final drive got to the 33 where they were SOD in the final seconds. UConn did kick two short FGs of 30 and 23 yards like Cincy did in the first half.
Kent State passed for just 89y, but ran for 341 including QB Holley's 224 on 24 att with 4 TDs. This game was just 27-6 entering the 4th qrt (Kent ret'd fumble in 2nd qrt for D TD). Entering the 4th qrt, UB had just 199 total yards, but would gain 197 on their final 4 drives of the game in the 4th with 2 TDs. Kent contributed 17 pts in the 4th for a 31 pt 4th quarter and 44-20 final.
After Eastern Michigan ran for 212 and 232 vs their prior 2 opponents (BGSU and WYO), they were held to just 62 on the ground vs Toledo. Tol had 467-317 yard edge, but ypp was even 5.7-5.5. Tol had 30-16 first downs as EM was just 20% on 3rd down to 65% for Tol. Toledo was SOD at the EM 15 on their first drive and after having a 1st and 10 at the EM 24, they eventually punted that drive. 0-0 end 1st qrt and just 7-3 at half. EM did fumble a KO that led to a 15y Toledo TD drive. Woodson was 25-31 (80%) for 247 4TD. Hunt ran for 141 (4.8). EM was -2 TOs.
After just a 3-0 lead following 1st qrt, the total was in question late in the BG-Ohio game. It stayed under 60 with a final 30-24 but under backers had to sweat it out. 4th qrt BG was SOD at the Ohio 4 after an 85y drive. Ohio missed a FG and earlier in the game BG kicked a FG from the 2.
Akron outgained Mia, Oh just 299-260 in the 35-13 win. Redhawk drives ended in short FGs and Akron's ended in TDs, 21-6 halftime. Offense was scarce in the 2nd half for both teams (1 good drive for Mia, Oh), but Akron was able to get a 5p 16y TD and 1p 32y TD pass following 2 INTs. Mia was -3 TOs. Akron had a 70y TD run, take that away they ran for 55y on their 34 other attempts. Capman QB'd Akron, Wezensky for Mia.
Ball ST - CMich was just 17-14 Chips in the 4th when Neal threw a pick-six and CM led 24-14. Ball answered on a 75y TD drive to make it 24-21. Ball's final drive got to the CM 32, but Neal threw a INT on 1st and 10. CM went on to kill the last 1-1/2 minutes. Right before halftime CM had the ball on their own 22 with just :32 left. Spalding broke off a 63y run, 3 plays later on 3rd and 10, CM threw a 15y TD for the 17-7 halftime lead.
USF did out gain ECU 556-476 (7.8-5.2 ypp), but ECU was in position to cover this game (depending on your line). In the 2nd half ECU started coming back from a 24-6 deficit. ECU scored the next 16 pts (2 pt failed) to trail just 22-24 with 6:58 left in the game. But they lost by 16. USF hit a 62y TD pass and the next drive on 4th and 4 from midfield with under 4 minutes left ECU threw an INT that was returned to the 17. Two plays later USF was in the EZ for the 38-22 lead. ECU's final drive got to the 42 where Pirates were SOD. Backup Minshew QB'd the 4th qrt as Nelson left with inj.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Even game, back and forth first half with something like 8 lead changes. After 59 pts in the first half, the second half saw just 23.
The first 10 possessions of the first half were scores if you count the K ST pick-six (nice play DB flying in for the pick on a throw out in the flat). TT had a 329-193 yard edge at half, but K ST scored two non-offensive TDs. Second half TT had "just" 228 yards, but still held K ST to just 142. TTech had 3 SOD (one at K St 3) and a FG from the K ST 16. One of the SOD was a sack. K St stretched on the lead to 44-31.
For the cover, late...TTech was driving and benefited from two K St pass interference penalties, one controversial on 4th and 16. TTech scored on this drive to make it 44-38 with just :04 left. Amazingly TT got the onside kick (K ST player in position to recover but just stood there and waited for ball to come to him, when TT went and got it). Mahomes rolled out for the hailmary, but was hit and the ball flew out of bounds.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
OK, let me see if I can do this.
TAMU [TABLE="class: sidearm-table overall-stats highlight-hover collapse-on-medium"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"][/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]4th[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]20[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]05:50[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]PUNT[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]100[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]03:22[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]TD[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]5-80[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]2:28[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]UT[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]4th[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]35[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]03:22[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]KO[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]100[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]02:07[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]TD[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]6-65[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]1:15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]TAMU[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]4th[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]25[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]02:07[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]KO[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]100[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]01:49[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]FUMB[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]2-75[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]0:18[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]UT[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]4th[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]20[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]01:49[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]FUMB[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]100[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]00:41[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]TD[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]6-80[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]1:08[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]TAMU[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]4th[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]25[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]00:41[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]KO[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]79[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]00:04[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]FGA[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]7-54[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]0:37
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]UT[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]4th[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]21[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]00:04[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]FGA[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]19[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]00:00[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]HALF[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]1-(-2)[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]0:04[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]UT[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]OT[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]75[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]15:00[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]POSS[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]84[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]15:00[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]FG[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]4-9[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]0:00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]TAMU[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]OT[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]75[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]15:00[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]POSS[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]84[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]15:00[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]FG[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]4-9[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]0:00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]TAMU[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]OT[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]75[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]15:00[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]POSS[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]100[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]15:00[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]TD[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]3-25[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]0:00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]UT[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]OT[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]75[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]15:00[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]POSS[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]75[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]15:00[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]INT[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]1-0[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]0:00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]TAMU[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]OT[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center hide-on-medium-down"]15:00[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]INT[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]00:00[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"][/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]0-0[/TD]
[TD="class: text-center"]0:00[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
It was 35-21 in the 4th quarter with 3:22 left on a 80y drive. Then aTm had that fumble touchback, that was 75y. Then after Vols tied it, aTm drove 54y for the missed FG at end of regulation.
209 yards on final 3 drives and saw a 35-21, 14 point lead, to go a 35-35 tie.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Kansas Money Line bad beat seems like his style. I don't always see Sportscenter when he does them, but know he does did deep and likes obscure FunBelt action.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I kind of like reading stuff like that, but honestly I can't bet like that. I have to just watch games, go with what I think I know and trust my gut. When I put my head on the pillow I sink or swim with my own decisions and good or bad luck. I've always hated losing following some system or tails or fades that are supposed to work x% of the time rather than if I lose on my own. Now if it wins that is cool too, but I like picking games to play on my own, which is half the fun. I mean how do you trust what you are seeing and use that to pick games? Seems like you would get alot of leads that end up not working out, but can easily cherry pick the ones where it does Sunday morning QB.
The fading public dogs thing is an interesting read too, but that as well is not scientific as certain variables either are or are not factored into deciding what teams are or are not plays.
Really you'd have to go on record before kickoff on the teams and track by set criteria and track it over time. Doing it the day after games and piecing it together to say "here is how you win" seems too easy to say.
There is no crystal ball.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Told ya it was mind boggling. haha.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I think the WF yardage is a tad deceiving itself because they attributed a 39y loss on a bad punt snap (resulted in safety for Cuse) as part of the WF O. So without that WF outgained Cuse by 43, not a meaningful difference and the 14 pt swing fumble return skews the result more than those 39 yards skew the overall yardage.
Wake did have 4 cracks from the 1 in the 1st qrt, but on 4th down fumbled into the EZ for touchback. So a goal line stand like that for Syracuse is a little unusual. I kind of look at some stuff like the 83y fumble ret TD as a wash with the TD they could've/should've had on that goal line fumble. But certainly agreed that thinking Cuse could've had 7 more pts without that fumble return in what otherwise would've been 28-16 had WF not been stopped on 4 cracks from the 1 and also not got that fumble return TD.
Wolford and Carney each ran for 100. Have to think that weather impacted what Cuse was trying to do. Orange went 3-and-out on 4 of their first 5 possessions.
Wake sacked Cuse 5x.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I don't use this but I do think it is important to note it and I have to admit that when I am on the supposed "square" side of these situations, I think I lose more than I win.
I could use this tool more this year on a personal level. In the past I bet at open and that was just crushing the bad numbers that linesmakers put out there and that was FAR better than reverse line movement type of stuff (for lack of a better phrase about what you are talking about). But now that I am betting later (by bad choice), I could eliminate some leans this way or have the opposite push me into playing leans anyway. Sharp money is going to win a little more than it loses....
My best run ever in sports was tailing someone else on college basketball. So from that, i have become a little more willing to go outside my own opinion when the information says that another opinion or system is correct. With that said, I am like S--K in that I trust myself more and I enjoy the puzzle of trying to figure it all out too.
But I won't say that what you are saying in your post does not have significant merit because I think it does.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I did not watch and would like that first hand view as well. I did read that Davis injured his throwing hand very early in the game and WR Hansen was injured in the 4th qrt.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
One other thing on the Navy game, people may have just been attacking the spread, but I have a printout from scoresandodds which is where I get my numbers and Friday night the Navy ML was +575 / Houston -800 (when the line was 17) and it closed at +750 /Houston -1100 (when the line closed at 16). I'm sure I could learn alot on line moves and what certain things mean...but it isn't like a bunch of money was expecting the upset with that kind of ML movement. I had thought that weather may've been a reason the line moved some, as you would figure that to impact Houston more than Navy and take away some of their speed and athletic advantage.
lindetrain
Pretty much a regular
I'm sure you're just pulling this from an article or whatever but not too sure William Hill is the best indication of where sharp money is coming.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Regarding that "controversial" PI against K-State late 4Q that ultimately allowed Tech to cover? It was only controversial because the K-State DB had perfect coverage on the play and make a clean pick. Even the Wizard was dumbfounded. Saw him run down the sideline to protest like I've never seen him sprint.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Some quick notes:
Nothing deceiving about BYU's win at Michigan ST. 24-13 FD, 260-85 RY, 138-121 PY, 5.1-3.9 ypp, 62-42% 3rd down all advantage Cougars. BYU sacked MSU 3s, MSU registered 0 sacks. MSU only -1 TO. Williams ran for 163 and outrushed all MSU ball carriers. O'Connor and Terry both QB'd for MSU, so there may be some issue who will play more going forward. MSU went 15p 72y opening TD possession, but would gain just 52 yard on their next 6 possesions! BYU wasn't bad in the first half, but really put it together in the second half with drives of 73, 70, 32, 82 all for TDs.
Penn St entered the Maryland game last in the B1G in rushing, but racked up 372 yards. PSU had 11 straight game without rushing for 150 yards prior. PSU D on the other hand, held Maryland to about half their average rushing yardage.
Mitch Leidner was just 13-33(39%)-166-0TD-2INT and RBs Smith/Brooks combined for just 99 yards rushing. Beathard was also 0-2 TD-INT, but completed 55%. Each team lost 3 TOs. Trailing 6-7, Iowa RB Wadley ripped of a 54y run, Iowa's longest play of the year to take the lead and win 14-6.
ILL committed 12 penalties for 125 yards, no surprise as they are the most penalized team in the Big Ten. Soph QB Chayce Crouch has been getting alot of compliments for his performance after Wes Lunt left the game with injury. Lunt has been poor this year and the way people are talking about Crouch, it could be him starting in the near future. He ran 17-137 (2TD) and passed 10-14-142. He did fumble to set up Purdue's game winning FG in OT. Purdue used 3 straight timeouts at the end of regulation to ice ILL kicker, who missed off the upright and the game went to OT.
Nothing deceiving about BYU's win at Michigan ST. 24-13 FD, 260-85 RY, 138-121 PY, 5.1-3.9 ypp, 62-42% 3rd down all advantage Cougars. BYU sacked MSU 3s, MSU registered 0 sacks. MSU only -1 TO. Williams ran for 163 and outrushed all MSU ball carriers. O'Connor and Terry both QB'd for MSU, so there may be some issue who will play more going forward. MSU went 15p 72y opening TD possession, but would gain just 52 yard on their next 6 possesions! BYU wasn't bad in the first half, but really put it together in the second half with drives of 73, 70, 32, 82 all for TDs.
Penn St entered the Maryland game last in the B1G in rushing, but racked up 372 yards. PSU had 11 straight game without rushing for 150 yards prior. PSU D on the other hand, held Maryland to about half their average rushing yardage.
Mitch Leidner was just 13-33(39%)-166-0TD-2INT and RBs Smith/Brooks combined for just 99 yards rushing. Beathard was also 0-2 TD-INT, but completed 55%. Each team lost 3 TOs. Trailing 6-7, Iowa RB Wadley ripped of a 54y run, Iowa's longest play of the year to take the lead and win 14-6.
ILL committed 12 penalties for 125 yards, no surprise as they are the most penalized team in the Big Ten. Soph QB Chayce Crouch has been getting alot of compliments for his performance after Wes Lunt left the game with injury. Lunt has been poor this year and the way people are talking about Crouch, it could be him starting in the near future. He ran 17-137 (2TD) and passed 10-14-142. He did fumble to set up Purdue's game winning FG in OT. Purdue used 3 straight timeouts at the end of regulation to ice ILL kicker, who missed off the upright and the game went to OT.
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