Week 6 CFB w/writeups......

YesSir

Brian Windhorst
2005 Season

69-42-2 (62%)

2006 Season

Overall: 63-38-2


Ohio State OVER 10 wins (5-0)

What is up everybody? I had an up and down week- I started off by missing my first four plays but finished strong and ended up having a good week. I will lock these plays in now, and then fade, middle, or add more later. This way I ensure myself a better line on most of these plays. People often question on why I buy half of points? I do it because I bet through a local and it is only double juice. With that being said, here are just a few games that stand out to me:


Tulsa - 4 (buy the half point) WIN
UNDER 46.5 (sportsInteraction) WIN
Too much is being put into this Tulsa run defense IMO. Anytime you have Navy(number 1 Rush offense in the nation) on your schedule, you will have inflated numbers. This game features 2 of the better defenses in this conference. With that being said, Tulsa has not played since the 23rd. It is a national televised game in which Tulsa can show the country what they are about. Also, Paul Smith (a top 15 QB IMO) has a chance to show scouts and the nation how good he is. He has been great early, throwing for nearly 250 a game. Southern Miss comes into this game coming off of a national game. I think Tulsa will be more ready and pumped up for their first nat. TV game. Many people thought that this is the same old Tulsa team after they got throttled by BYU in week 2. It was an away game and BYU has looked good all season (only loss being a 7 pt. loss to BC). Finally, I want to look at the home field advantage aspect. I know HFA has not really been that much of an advantage in this conference BUT I think early season success, an NFL type QB, a national televised game, and a night game should bring some drunken fans out. With all this being said, I look for this game to be about a 2 TD game.


WE ARE MARSHALL - 2.5 (hook) LOSS
UNDER 44.5
LOSS


Well this game seems to feature to bad teams if you are just looking at the records (both 1-3). Each teams' numbers seem to be pretty even with nothing standing out from either. I actually think this favors Marshall, for the fact that they have played better teams. Marshall comes into this game after playing Tennessee, Kansas State, Hofstra, and West Virginia. Well you could throw out Hofstra, and that is a pretty tough schedule. CFU enters this road matchup playing some decent teams but not close to the Mountaineers or Volunteers. They have lost to Southern Miss(at home), South Florida (at home), and Florida. PS I do not hate Moffet as much as everyone seems to on here. Deciding Factor: Marshall comes into this game with a chance to take out frustration from the ass pounding they have received early in the season. This is a national TV game(Marhsalls first of the year). CFU has already played in a national televised game. Using the same reasoning as yesterday, I expect Marshall to be more fired up (home game, first national televised game). Finally I want to look at the movie aspect of this game. Marshall has been promoting this game big time. They expect a HUGE crowd, maybe even a sell out. They are promoting "a green out" or something like that where everyone will be in green. Also, the movie about the Marshall plane crash is taking some footage from this game. Their will be Hollywood people in attendence ( yeah in WVlol)...As far as the under, I expect both teams to try and pound the ball on first and second down. Niether team has that much ability to make the huge plays IMO. I look for this game to be similar to last nights game.


Florida State - 10 on the buy- I think NC State is just getting too much love with this line. Yes, I know this is a night game and it is prime time TV but come on! NC State is getting to much respect for their win against BC IMO. This is the same team that lost to Akron by 3 and Southern Piss by 20. And it is the same team that struggled to be Appalachian State. FSU comes into this game with one blemish on their record, a tough loss at home to Clemson. I think Clemson is a top 10 team, which strengthens my thoughts on this game. I do not see NC State being able to move the ball on the Seminoles. I look for this to be a 27-10 type game.

Purdue/Iowa OVER 53.5 This game features 2 powerful offenses who have the potential to put up 50 each. Purdue has scored at least 27 in 4 out of 5 games and has given up at least 21 every game. Though Iowa has not put up great numbers- they have a top knotch QB and the ability to score. I think this game will have points early and often.

Kansas + 3 (hook) I do not really understand why A&M is favored in this game. The game features a home Kansas team who has played well throughout the season. They are 3-2 BUT come off two impressive games. They got beat by Nebraska in OT this past week and beat an underrated South Florida team the week before. Texas A&M is 4-1 but they have not beat anyone worth a poop. Their wins come against The Shitadel, Louisianna Lafayette, La Tech, and a narrow win against Army! I will take the home team in this one...

Miami - 18.5 Yes I know I missed this line when it first came out but I still like this play and it will continue to rise IMO. Miami comes into this game just trying to stay above the Mendoza Line while UNC is searching. UNC is 1-3 (that 1 being a tough battle against Furman). That Furman win was a 3 point win in which they gave up 42 points! Miami should be thinking nothing less than a blowout in this game. I expect the Canes to get healthy and take out some frustration. This game has all the makings of a blowout!

Alabama - 27.5 (Hook) Well I do not know a ton about some of these SEC schools but I do know about Duke. This team is traditionally horrid and looked like it against VA last week. From what I hear, Bama is a little better offensively than they have been in the past. Bottom Line is that I do not see Puke's offense being able to score more than 3 on this defense!


Will have more later- Just wanted to get things rolling.....:cheers:
 
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I like Alabama a lot...they have a better passing offense than usual, and they will take out the Florida loss on Duke. Whether or not I decide to play a 28 point spread, we'll see. I can't do the Miami pick...not with Miami looking like they might struggle to score 18 points themselves.

As for FSU, I like it. Ironically, FSU minus the points over NC State at NC State was my first ever college bet. Sweated it out the entire way, then won after getting somewhat lucky. If I can get them at -10 or -9.5, I'll do it...but I don't have much interest in buying that final .5 point.

BEST OF LUCK
 
The only game you are on that I might play is the FSU/NCState game. AND, if I play that one, I'm likely to be on NC State getting the points at home or nothing.

I can see why you would reason the way you do with the Kansas/TA&M game, but remember -- although Texas A&M has not beat anybody worth poop, one has to ask themselves, who has Kansas beat? No play for me in that game.

I'll wish you luck on these games as I will likely not be playing them.
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Seabass- thanks bro..Good relavent points....BOL this week:shake:

SoonersBS- We often do not play the same games but are both pretty successful. Yes, KU has not really beaten anyone worth a damn (well maybe South Florida) but has played well the last couple of weeks...Thanks and BOL:shake:

Yanks- Thanks and BOL :shake:
 
Adding:

Tulsa - 4 (buy the half point) Local has it at 4.5 (also on Pinny at 4.5)

UNDER 46.5 (sportsInteraction)

Too much is being put into this Tulsa run defense IMO. Anytime you have Navy(number 1 Rush offense in the nation) on your schedule, you will have inflated numbers. This game features 2 of the better defenses in this conference. With that being said, Tulsa has not played since the 23rd. It is a national televised game in which Tulsa can show the country what they are about. Also, Paul Smith (a top 15 QB IMO) has a chance to show scouts and the nation how good he is. He has been great early, throwing for nearly 250 a game. Southern Miss comes into this game coming off of a national game. I think Tulsa will be more ready and pumped up for their first nat. TV game. Many people thought that this is the same old Tulsa team after they got throttled by BYU in week 2. It was an away game and BYU has looked good all season (only loss being a 7 pt. loss to BC). Finally, I want to look at the home field advantage aspect. I know HFA has not really been that much of an advantage in this conference BUT I think early season success, an NFL type QB, a national televised game, and a night game should bring some drunken fans out. With all this being said, I look for this game to be about a 2 TD game.

Tulsa 27-14
 
YesSir said:
Adding:

Tulsa - 4 (buy the half point) Local has it at 4.5 (also on Pinny at 4.5)

UNDER 46.5 (sportsInteraction)

.....an NFL type QB, a national televised game, and a night game should bring some drunken fans out. With all this being said, I look for this game to be about a 2 TD game.

Tulsa 27-14

Crap, now I have to go get drunk before the game so you'll look good. Ah well, one must do what one must do to help a fellow capper out on his picks. And Thompson may be NFL caliber QB, as he has one of the best NFL QB coaches as his HC now.
 
jimmyd said:
Crap, now I have to go get drunk before the game so you'll look good.quote]

Thanks Bro.....Find an ESPN camera and do some crazy drunken dance in front of it:drinking: :smiley_acbe:
 
Thanks Fondy and Hunt(make sure you click that link at the bottom)


Tonight I am going with:

WE ARE MARSHALL - 2.5 (hook)
UNDER 44.5

Well this game seems to feature to bad teams if you are just looking at the records (both 1-3). Each teams' numbers seem to be pretty even with nothing standing out from either. I actually think this favors Marshall, for the fact that they have played better teams. Marshall comes into this game after playing Tennessee, Kansas State, Hofstra, and West Virginia. Well you could throw out Hofstra, and that is a pretty tough schedule. CFU enters this road matchup playing some decent teams but not close to the Mountaineers or Volunteers. They have lost to Southern Miss(at home), South Florida (at home), and Florida. PS I do not hate Moffet as much as everyone seems to on here. Deciding Factor: Marshall comes into this game with a chance to take out frustration from the ass pounding they have received early in the season. This is a national TV game(Marhsalls first of the year). CFU has already played in a national televised game. Using the same reasoning as yesterday, I expect Marshall to be more fired up (home game, first national televised game). Finally I want to look at the movie aspect of this game. Marshall has been promoting this game big time. They expect a HUGE crowd, maybe even a sell out. They are promoting "a green out" or something like that where everyone will be in green. Also, the movie about the Marshall plane crash is taking some footage from this game. Their will be Hollywood people in attendence ( yeah in WVlol)...

As far as the under, I expect both teams to try and pound the ball on first and second down. Niether team has that much ability to make the huge plays IMO. I look for this game to be similar to last nights game.

As you can all see, there is not much valuable info in this writeup. Sorry, it is more a gut play with some other factors. BOL all
 
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Someone on a different site asked me my opinions about these 21 games lol....So I just threw some notes about their about these teams...thought I would share for anyone who was interested.... The teams in bold are the teams that he liked....Hope it can help anyone...

I did have surgery today and I am all drugged up so give me a break with some stuff:

Pitt - tough call though many people do favor this play. The nation finally got to see a glimpse of what my boy Delone Carter can do for the Cuse (4 TDs and 129 I believe). This kid is a true Freshman from my home district (Akron....yeah same place as RBs Antonio Pittman, Chris Wells, and Tyrell Sutton). Not really sure Pitt should be giving a TD on the road yet. They have beat an underated Cinci team, Toledo, the Shitadel and VA. The Cuse has played well at home all year, their only loss(home) coming in an OT game against Iowa. They responded with 3 straight wins. Also, they are 5-0 ATS this year.....I would lean towards the Orange Crush on the turf....


Pitt - tough call though many people do favor this play. The nation finally got to see a glimpse of what my boy Delone Carter can do for the Cuse (4 TDs and 129 I believe). This kid is a true Freshman from my home district (Akron....yeah same place as RBs Antonio Pittman, Chris Wells, and Tyrell Sutton). Not really sure Pitt should be giving a TD on the road yet. They have beat an underated Cinci team, Toledo, the Shitadel and VA. The Cuse has played well at home all year, their only loss(home) coming in an OT game against Iowa. They responded with 3 straight wins. Also, they are 5-0 ATS this year.....I would lean towards the Orange Crush on the turf....

- Mia Flo- Love Miami, pending what line you can get it at....I have a writeup above

- Maryland - I really do not have that strong of an opinion on this game...I have been extremely impressed with Ga Tech throughout they year. Maryland has struggled throughout....barely beating FIU in their last game. WV could have put up 100 on this team if they would have stuck to the game plan early.....Also, Maryland has failed to cover a game this year. At the same time they do have a good defense. This game might get ugly early but also has the potential to be a dog fight- I think it depends on what Reggie Ball shows up... If the playmaker shows up then Ga Tech rolls....would leand towards the home Yellow Jackets...

- Ohio State- Well the Buckeyes have been a covering maching (14-0 in their last 14 ATS). This is amazing if you really think about it. Being favored by 5 TDs in a game that has let down in the making is pretty scary... BG has also progressively gotten better as the season has worn on. When I say let down I mean only winning by 4 TDs. I think this might be the day the streak gets stopped. This game is to hard to bet a side IMO, unless if you take the dog. Tressal has had a tendency not to blowout teams, let alone inner state teams. They would not have covered against Cinci, if he was not trying to get a game FG for a player.

-Western Mich- I think you are on the right side in this one. I think all of them little Michigan schools can become covering machines as the season progresses(wester, central, and eastern). But this game ultimately falls on which OU team shows up (The one against BG last week or the one that dominated NIU)...

- Miami Ohio - This game will be an interesting one. If I would have seen this line when it opened at 8 I would have crushed NIU. There have been a few teams that I have backed since the beginning of the year, Kent State, CAL(after the TENN game), and Northern Illinois. Why is it that you like MIA in this situation? How will they stop Garret Wolfe? They wont be able to and as soon as those safeties come up Horvath has the ability to throw over the top. 2 TDs is tough to cover on the road in a conference game though. There is no home field advantage, as Miami is one of the 8 or so schools that did not meet D1 standards last year for attendence. If this game is on TV I would take NIU for the fact Wolfe will shine even brighter on TV...

- Alabama - I already bet Bama...writeup is at the top

- Kansas I already bet Kansas....writeup is at the top

- Kentucky- I think that line is pretty accurate. With that being said, I would probably lean towards the home dog in this situation....as SC probably is getting too much love from the Auburn game...

- LSU- I like Florida BUT many great cappers that know way more about the SEC than me love LSU....take it for what its worth..

- Arizona East coast bias here...I do not think UCLA should be giving many teams double digits. ZOna had an impressive win against BYU and played USC(only game they have covered) pretty tough(they also got throttled by LSU. I bet UCLA last week and they did not really impress me when I watched them (only 2x all year). Yes they covered and won 31-0 but they really did not dominate. Though they did beat Utah handily early in the year, I think you are right with Zona....

- Oklahoma- Depends where you got it at. If you have not bet it yet then my suggestion is to hook em with the Horns...This will be an interesting game and I might look at the total instead of a side....

- East Car - I like this game a lot and already locked it in at 5.5! If you are going to take ECU I suggest you lock it ASAP...It is at 6 now and will probably be over a TD by game time. It does not seem as anyone is being fooled by Virginia's beatdown of Duke. They really did not dominate that game either(check out Phil Steele's latest).

- Mississippi State- Why? They have played 2 elite teams so far (LSU beat them by 31 and Auburn shut em out 34-0 (they were 22 point home dogs there). Now they host a WV team that is coming into this game off a buy???!?!??!? They are now 3 TD home dogs against a better offense than they have faced all year IMO. Slaton and White should have track practice once they get to the outside on this team.. LIKE WV to roll em!

- Vanderbilt- Prior to last week Vanderbilt had been a covering machine. They have played well all year (lost to UM by 20, BAMA 3, and Arkansas 2...Ole Miss comes into this game after playing GA well and almost beating them.. Now they come home to be Home dogs to the Jay Cutler-less Vanderbilt? If I had to pick a side I agree with you....BUT both these teams you dont really know what you are going to get.

- Tennessee SEE above about the SEC....I like the Dogs but all of my SEC guys like the Volunteers here.

- Wyoming- I like the home dog here. Both these teams are pretty similar IMO. They have both struggled but both have played one quality team well. I think NM should be favored do I would lean to NM!
- Boise st Well for the most part you look at these games as a coin flip situation. How bad does Boise want to embarrass La Tech? They have a tendency to spank teams at home. With that said they could spank em by beathing them 42-7 and that is not a cover. All in all Boise must pound teams to try and get some national looks. They will not play a ranked team all year so they must do all they can do get into a BCS game (must be top 12).

- Rice- Well this team has been a roller coaster all year. They played UCLA and Houston very tough (31-30 L) to start the year. They then got murdered by FSU and Texas. Last game they crushed Army... So to recap: They got obliviated by 2 powerhouses, lost tough games to middle tier teams, and blew out a bad team....Tulane played SMU(33-28 L) and Mississippi State(32-29W) well, got murdered by LSUand Houston. Looking at how they both performed against Houston, you say RICE right away. But that is irrelavent IMO...I tend to agree with your play because the way Rice has played middle to lower teams all year...

- Flo int What is the reasoning here? Is this more of a North Texas fade? I like this game for no other reason than it is a fade. NT did beat SMU(an SMU team that killed Arky State(who beat FIU by 30))lol earlier this season though....The more I look at it FIU is the play because they have been in the majority of the games they have played.

- Arkansas st Not strong enough opinions to give you an opinion

 
HUNTDOG said:
I refuse to click that link sir..lol

:smiley_acbe: It is a pro-big blue link....I promise.....


Quote:RSM
-that aint bias, its common sense
I originally was not going to comment on that game but remembered some things that I saw last Saturday....BOL this weekend bro:cheers:
 
I can't trust a buckeye!..lol

love the plays tho, I think alabama just rolls.
 
Adding:

Florida State - 10 (booked it Sunday) could have got it at 9.5 earlier....WU is up top!

Florida State/NC State UNDER 39

Utah - 2.5

Utah/TCU UNDER 41

Teasers

UNDER 45 and UNDER 47

FSU -3(now at 9.5) Utah + 4

6 plays on a Thursday is upsurd...but like I said I had surgery today and am just chilling....In reality, I like both of these games to stay under because there are solid defenses in these games. Also, I believe that totals get infalted on these one game a night weekdays...You have 4 decent defenses and many questions at QB. There is at least 60% chance of rain in both games- I look for each team to try and get the running game established early and shrink these games....

BOL all
 
3-3 last night...Congrats to all that had the balls to take NC State. They looked go and Chuck the Fuck managed not to cry throughout the whole game BUT I did not see the post game conference:

Tonight I see a blowout in the works. I know Louisville is missing their 2 players that were supposed to lead this team to the promise land. In all honesty this is a very good team without those guys. I look for L-Ville to score early and often. I cant really explain the 4 pt. drop nor my power rankings having this at 26...I do not know if how they crushed North Texas has anything to do with this line. NT got pounded by Akron! An average OU offense put up 59 on this squad. I am not positive but I do not think that MTS has a huge homefield advantage. LVille comes into this game after a 2 week break and are looking to make a statement. You ask, "What kind of statement can they make against Middle Tennessee?" Not really sure if they can make a statement other than they can crush a bad team without their best player. To me, this has the makings to be a game like week 1 against Kentucky(blowout city). Louisville is 4-0 ATS this year while Mid Ten is 2-2(0-1 at home). Middle Tennessee will play this game with a short week while Louisville has been sitting and waiting. Bottom Line: Louisville does not get to play many games on national TV. With the way the national football scene is shaping up, it looks like there might be more than 2 undefeated teams. For LVille to get mentioned with those teams, they must crush an inferior opponent. I hate putting a ton of eggs in one basket BUT I am confident with LVille scoring 60 by themselves. Call it like you see it but this is how I feel... BOL to all:cheers:

LVille - 17(bodog) First half
OVER 27.5(bodog) First Half
LVille -30 (Sports.com/Local)
Lville OVER 52 (Sports.com/Local)
Lville -24 OVER 46
 
FINAL CARD (as of now) and yes I know there are 20 games here..>Did not ask for permission...

GAMES LOCKED IN EARLY

Purdue/Iowa OVER 53.5
Miami -18.5
Kansas + 3.5 (hook)
Bama-27.5 (hook)
ECU - 5.5

OTHERS that I have seen throughout the week:

West Virginia -20.5 (hook)
Rice -2.5
Oklahoma St - 2.5(hook)
Navy/Air Force UNDER 51 (Sooner tail)
Navy + 3.5
CAL -5
LSU + 1
Wisconsin -20.5 (hook)
Illinois -8
Akron/Cinci UNDER 44
Nebraska - 6
South Florida -6.5
Michigan/MSU OVER 53
Kent State - 23.5
Nevad/ Hawaii OVER 61


Thanks to everyone for their efforts this week and BOL to all
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